在黑龙江海伦一家有着十几年经营历史的大豆油压榨厂，记者看到，本应该忙碌的工厂现在却选择了停产检修。负责人告诉记者，目前，进口大豆到港均价 在3900元/吨左右，较国产高油大豆价格低100-200元/吨，且进口大豆出油率比国产高油大豆高出2-3个百分点，这让压榨国产大豆的油厂在原料的收购上愈 发谨慎。 与海伦油厂的冷清形成鲜明对比，在山东禹城，一家大豆精深加工的企业正迎来生产旺季。这家企业产品涵盖大豆分离蛋白、植物肉、功能饮料等多个品 类，精准瞄准进口大豆难以替代的需求市场。随着消费市场需求升温，企业已逐步加大新豆采购力度。 （央视财经《经济信息联播》）随着国产大豆大量上市，叠加进口大豆持续稳定到港，我国大豆产业链下游加工企业正面临"双源供给"下的差异化竞争格 局。伴随着我国的消费升级，围绕国产大豆价值挖掘的产业升级正在上演。 海关数据显示：2025年1-10月，我国进口大豆9568.2万吨，同比增加6.4%。专家表示，近年来，随着产业链条不断延伸，我国对大豆的整体需求量将稳步提 升。 山东禹城某大豆加工企业负责人 张静：自新季大豆上市以来，我们采购量5万多吨，其中高蛋白大豆采购比例占到30%以上，与去年同期相 ...

2025年复盘：行业表现较弱，白酒调整为主因，大众品复苏趋势不变 从整体来看，2025年前三季度食品饮料收入同比+0.1%，利润同比-14.6%，均慢于去年同期水平，对应 行业指数年初至今涨跌幅在31个子行业中排名第31。从结构来看，白酒周期调整为食品饮料表现较弱的 主要因素，实际上大众品复苏长期趋势不变，并且内部节奏呈现H1新消费领先(功能饮料+魔芋零食+量 贩渠道+山姆渠道)、H2传统消费修复接力(速冻食品等)。 智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，2025年食饮行业表现较弱，白酒调整为主因，大众品复 苏趋势不变。该行认为2026年食品饮料行业仍以结构性机会为主：1)新消费仍具持续性，但板块内部或 有轮动;2)部分传统消费供给逐渐出清，需求改善有望推动板块修复，例如乳制品、速冻食品等。该行 认为2026年新消费将出现内部轮动。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： 2026年展望：结构性机会延续，新消费内部轮动，传统消费底部修复 若2026年宏观经济恢复节奏仍然偏温和，该行认为食品饮料行业仍以结构性机会为主：1)新消费仍具持 续性，但板块内部或有轮动;2)部分传统消费供给逐渐出清，需求改善有望推动板块修复， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage industry, highlighting several key companies as investment opportunities [3][4]. Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is experiencing internal rotation in new consumption and improvement at the bottom of traditional consumption. The overall performance in 2025 was weak, primarily due to the adjustment in the liquor sector, but the long-term recovery trend for mass consumer goods remains intact [3][8]. - For 2026, structural opportunities are expected to continue, with new consumption showing internal rotation and traditional consumption gradually recovering from the bottom [3][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In 2025, the food and beverage sector's revenue grew by only 0.1% year-on-year, while profits fell by 14.6%, underperforming compared to the previous year. The industry index ranked last among 31 sub-industries with a decline of 4.8% [8][11]. - The adjustment in the liquor sector is identified as the main factor for the overall weak performance, while the recovery trend for mass consumer goods is expected to persist [8][11]. Soft Drinks - The beverage industry is projected to benefit from a rebound in travel demand in 2026, with a revenue increase of 6.2% in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [42][45]. - Cost advantages from declining prices of raw materials like sugar and PET are expected to continue, enhancing profit margins for beverage companies [45][49]. Snacks - The konjac snack sector is experiencing high growth, with companies like Salted Fish and Wei Long achieving significant revenue increases in 2025 [66][67]. - The competitive landscape for konjac products is expected to remain manageable, with established brands likely to maintain their market positions despite new entrants [70][76]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is anticipated to see a recovery in supply-demand balance, with raw milk prices expected to stabilize in 2026 due to ongoing supply adjustments [38][39]. - Policies promoting consumption are expected to benefit liquid milk and milk powder sales, driving demand improvements [38][39]. Frozen and Condiment Products - The frozen food sector is expected to see performance improvements as competition stabilizes, with a focus on recovery in demand [38][39]. - The condiment sector is also projected to benefit from a gradual recovery in consumer demand [38][39]. Liquor - The liquor industry is still in an adjustment phase but is gradually approaching a bottoming out stage, with supply clearing expected to continue into 2026 [6][25]. - The report suggests that the long-term value of liquor stocks will become more apparent as the market stabilizes [6][25]. Investment Recommendations - Key companies to watch include Dongpeng Beverage, Nongfu Spring, and Moutai in the beverage sector, as well as Wei Long and Salted Fish in the snack sector [6][8].

证券研究报告 大消费行业周报 板块有所回调，关注底部机会 平安证券研究所 大消费团队 证券分析师： 张晋溢 S1060521030001（证券投资咨询）邮箱：ZHANGJINYI112@pingan.com.cn 王星云 S1060523100001（证券投资咨询）邮箱：WANGXINGYUN937@pingan.com.cn 王萌 S1060522030001（证券投资咨询）邮箱：WANGMENG917@pingan.com.cn 胡琼方 S1060524010002（证券投资咨询）邮箱：HUQIONGFANG722@pingan.com.cn 王源 S1060524010001（证券投资咨询）邮箱：WANGYUAN468@pingan.com.cn 2025年11月23日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 资料来源：Wind，平安证券研究所 食品饮料-大众品 本周观点 大消费观点：本周（11月17日-11月21日）沪深300累计涨跌幅-3.77%，所有的大消费子行业（中信一级行业）都出现下跌：食品饮料（- 1.36%）、传媒（-1.39%）、家电（-1.98%）、农林牧渔（-3.39%）、纺织服装（-5.11%） ...

Group 1 - The sales proportion of carbonated beverages has decreased, from 18.4% in 2019 to 16.5% in 2025, while ready-to-drink tea's share increased from 17.6% to 23.3%, and functional beverages rose from 16.5% to 18.7% [2] - The beverage industry is experiencing a steady growth rate of 4.8% in 2025, with the founder of Yuanqi Forest stating that the company achieved a growth rate four times higher than the industry average [2] - There is a notable increase in demand for no-sugar and low-sugar teas, as well as growth in functional beverages, particularly those containing sports nutrients [2][3] Group 2 - The beverage market is seeing intensified competition, with increased promotional frequency and intensity across both offline and e-commerce channels [3] - Yuanqi Forest has introduced a comprehensive digital system called "Five Codes in One" to enhance promotional precision, network management, cost optimization, and consumer interaction [3] - Companies are adopting multi-dimensional development strategies to improve competitiveness, focusing on supply chain efficiency, smart factory construction, product innovation, and diversified channel layouts [3]

Core Insights - The beverage consumption peak season has ended, and the company's Q3 report shows stable performance, further strengthening the advantages of leading enterprises [1] - The beverage industry is expected to continue benefiting from raw material and packaging cost reductions, with a focus on competitive strategies and new product developments [1] Market Review - As of November 12, 2025, the Shenwan Soft Drink Index has increased by 13.4% year-to-date, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.9% and outperforming the Food and Beverage Index by 16.2% [2] - The soft drink industry has a current PE (TTM) of 30 times, positioned at the 50th percentile over the past three years, with a valuation decline since Q3 [2] - In Q3 2025, the soft drink industry recorded a revenue of 10.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, with a net profit of 2.06 billion yuan, up 36.6% [3] Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector showed good revenue growth in snacks, soft drinks, and health products, while seasonings, pre-packaged foods, and beer also achieved positive year-on-year revenue growth [3] - The soft drink industry's gross margin in Q3 2025 was 42.4%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 19.5%, up 3.1 percentage points [3] Company Performance - Functional beverages and water businesses are experiencing good growth, while some traditional beverage companies are reaching turning points [4] - Dongpeng Beverage reported a revenue increase of 30.4% year-on-year in Q3 2025, benefiting from the demand for functional beverages and new product launches [4] - Traditional plant protein beverage companies are facing pressure, but leading firms are optimizing channels and innovating products, with Yangyuan Beverage and Chengde Lululemon showing positive revenue growth of 11.9% and 8.9% respectively [4] Cost and Profitability - Major raw material and packaging prices continue to decline, with the gross margin for Chengde Lululemon at 44.7%, up 4.0 percentage points year-on-year, while Dongpeng's gross margin decreased by 0.6 percentage points [5] - Sales expense ratios improved for leading companies, with Yangyuan Beverage and Dongpeng Beverage showing significant reductions [6][7] - The net profit margins for Dongpeng Beverage and Yangyuan Beverage increased by 1.8 percentage points and 10.6 percentage points respectively, while traditional beverage companies faced declining profitability [7] Price Tracking - The prices of key raw materials like white sugar and packaging materials such as PET and glass have continued to decline, although the rate of decline has slowed [8]

Core Insights - The recent surge in mergers and acquisitions in the consumer sector contrasts with the sluggish growth of the consumption market, raising questions about the underlying investment logic of top-tier capital [1][4]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The retail sales of consumer goods in China reached 36.59 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, growing by 4.5% year-on-year, which is still below the 8% growth rate seen in 2019 [1]. - The performance of listed consumer companies shows significant divergence, with major players like Kweichow Moutai and Yum China experiencing slowed growth compared to previous years [2]. - Smaller food and beverage companies are facing considerable operational pressure, with many reporting declines in both revenue and net profit [2]. Group 2: Investment Logic Behind Mergers - The first logic is that target companies possess strong cash flow and a solid foundation, making them attractive despite slower growth rates [4]. - The second logic highlights the brand influence of the target companies, which have established networks and consumer loyalty, making them appealing for capital investment [5]. - The third logic suggests that the current market downturn presents a "buying opportunity" for capital, allowing for acquisitions at reasonable prices [5]. - The fourth logic emphasizes the ongoing opportunities in the consumer sector, as the majority of production activities ultimately cater to consumer needs [5]. Group 3: Future Trends in the Consumer Market - Companies face challenges in understanding new consumer demographics, adapting to new marketing methods, and embracing innovative organizational structures [6]. - Three key trends to watch include a focus on cost-effective innovation, the rise of niche products that provide immediate satisfaction, and growth in self-improvement sectors such as health investments and knowledge-based services [6]. - The exit strategies for capital in the consumer market are evolving, with a shift towards long-term investment approaches rather than relying solely on rapid growth and IPOs [7].

重要信号！ 近期的消费赛道格外热闹：CPE源峰宣布与美国餐饮品牌汉堡王达成战略合作之后，大钲资本又被传正在评估对英国连锁咖啡品牌Costa Coffee提出的潜在收购要 约。而在一周前，博裕资本刚拿下星巴克中国60%股权；上个月，KKR收购国民汽水品牌大窑汽水的交易也正式落地。一边是并购热潮持续升温，一边却是消费市 场增长乏力，顶级资本为何逆势扎堆布局消费品牌？背后暗藏怎样的投资逻辑？ 顶级资本频现大手笔 买入消费 上述并购交易案中，买家都是国内外顶级资本，而卖方则多为知名消费品牌，其中不乏国际消费巨头。然而，巨资活跃在消费赛道且频频出手，与当前稍显疲软的 消费市场形成鲜明对比。 国家统计局此前发布的最新数据显示，前三季度，社会消费品零售总额36.59万亿元，同比增长4.5%，增速虽然较去年同期有所加快，但仍低于2019年8%的增速。 这表明，虽然我国消费市场在复苏进程中，但增长动力仍显得不够强劲。国家统计局有关负责人日前也表示，当前市场需求拉动仍显不足，价格总体低位运行。 上市公司的业绩也能反映当前消费市场的状况。记者梳理A股和港股消费类公司的季度财报发现，食品饮料行业上市公司今年前三季度业绩分化显著，呈现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in mergers and acquisitions in the consumer sector contrasts with the sluggish growth of the consumption market, raising questions about the underlying investment logic of top-tier capital entering this space [1][4]. Group 1: Mergers and Acquisitions Activity - Major capital firms are actively acquiring well-known consumer brands despite a weak consumption market, indicating a strategic move to capitalize on perceived undervaluation [1][4]. - Recent notable transactions include CPE Yuanfeng's partnership with Burger King, Hillhouse Capital's potential bid for Costa Coffee, and Boyu Capital's acquisition of a 60% stake in Starbucks China [1][2]. Group 2: Market Performance and Company Earnings - The retail sales growth in China for the first three quarters was 36.59 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, which is still below the 8% growth rate of 2019 [1]. - A significant performance disparity exists among consumer companies, with leading firms like Kweichow Moutai and Yum China showing slowed growth compared to previous years [2]. - Smaller food and beverage companies are facing greater operational pressures, with many reporting declines in both revenue and net profit [2]. Group 3: Investment Logic Behind Acquisitions - Four key investment rationales support the trend of capital entering the consumer sector: 1. Target companies possess strong cash flow and stable foundations, making them attractive despite slower growth [4]. 2. The brands being targeted have significant market influence and established networks, providing a solid base for future growth [5]. 3. The current market downturn presents a favorable opportunity for capital to acquire these brands at lower prices, allowing for potential value enhancement through improved governance [6]. 4. The consumer sector remains promising, with a large market potential and a low concentration of major brands, indicating future growth opportunities [6]. Group 4: Future Trends in the Consumer Market - The consumer market is expected to face challenges due to slowing income growth and increased savings, which will test the resilience of companies [7]. - Key trends to watch include a focus on cost-effective innovations, the rise of niche products that provide immediate satisfaction, and growth in self-improvement sectors such as health investments and knowledge-based services [7]. - Companies are increasingly optimizing their business structures by divesting non-core assets and consolidating resources to enhance operational quality [7][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the liquor industry is entering a phase of adjustment, with a consensus on reduced growth rates for 2024 and an expansion of performance declines in Q3 reports [1][2] - The food and beverage sector is expected to show stable overall volume and structural differentiation by 2025, with Q1/Q2/Q3 revenues growing by +2.5%/+2.4%/-4.77% year-on-year, and net profits declining by +0.3%/-2.1%/-14.6% [1] - The report highlights that the macroeconomic policies in Q4 could catalyze stock price increases due to low expectations in the capital market and low institutional holdings [1] Group 2 - The liquor sector is recommended for investment, particularly companies with pricing power and regional influence, such as Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Kweichow Moutai, which are expected to achieve greater growth [2] - The consumer goods sector is anticipated to stabilize and improve in 2025, driven by inventory reduction and macroeconomic policy support, with leading companies in segments like sugar-free tea and functional beverages showing strong revenue growth [3] - The snack food segment reported a revenue increase of +22.4% and an 8.6% rise in profits in Q3 2025, despite rising costs from certain raw materials [3]