龙头强势复苏，盈利能力提振 证券研究报告 农夫山泉 (9633 HK) 港股通 | 华泰研究 | | 中报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 8 月 27 日│中国香港 | | 饮料 | 目标价(港币): | 56.37 | | 25H1 公司实现营收/净利润 | 256.2/76.2 亿元，同比+15.6/+22.1%。24 | 年舆 | 吕若晨 SAC No. S0570525050002 | 研究员 lvruochen@htsc.com | | 论事件后公司积极寻求应对措施，25H1 | 以来品牌维护、铺货陈列推进成效 | | SFC No. BEE828 | +(86) 755 8249 2388 | 王可欣 研究员 SAC No. S0570524020001 SFC No. BVO215 wangkexin019215@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 | 目标价 (港币) | 56.37 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 (港币 截至 8 月 26 日) | 46. ...

❑ 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、原材料成本上升、新品拓展不及预期。 证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 27 日 农夫山泉（09633.HK） 盈利能力强化，继续看好龙头份额提升 消费品/食品饮料 公司发布 25 年半年报，25H1 公司实现营收/归母净利润 256.2 亿元/76.2 亿元， 同比+15.6%/+22.2%，25H1 公司净利润略超预期，盈利能力强化彰显龙头品牌 力。公司瓶装水业务份额有望加速恢复，中长期品牌、渠道能力领先。东方树 叶渗透率仍有提升，预计 26 年渠道数量仍有 5%-10%增长空间，份额有望继续 提升，中期维度有望成长为 200 亿级别单品。同时公司在咖啡、碳酸茶、植物 饮料方面均前瞻性布局，有望打造第二增长曲线。7-8 月动销数据持续验证，继 续看好龙头份额提升。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 42667 | 42896 | 50703 | 58296 | 65583 | | ...

证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 08 27 年 月 日 农夫山泉（09633.HK） 龙头强势恢复，业绩表现亮眼 事件：公司发布 2025 年中报，25H1 实现营业收入 256.22 亿元，同比 +15.6%；实现归母净利润 76.22 亿元，同比+22.1%；每股基本收益 0.677 元，同比+22.0%。 包装水业务：舆论消退，保持恢复。2025H1 公司包装水业务取得收入 94.43 亿元，同比+10.7%，占营收比重-1.6pct 至 36.9%；取得业绩 33.47 亿元，同比+22.0%；包装水业务净利率同比+3.3pct 至 35.4%。 公司包装水业务因舆情影响衰退而逐步恢复销售，我们认为公司凭借强 大的品牌、产品、渠道影响力，包装水业务有望继续保持恢复性的增 长。 饮料业务：茶和果汁增速亮眼，利润率稳步提升。2025H1 公司茶/功能/ 果汁/其他饮料分别取得收入 100.89/28.98/25.64/6.29 亿元，同比 +19.7%/+13.6%/+21.3%/+14.8%，占比分别+1.4/-0.2/+0.5/+0.0pct 至 39.4%/11.3 ...

值得注意的是，公司茶饮料业务首次超越包装水，成为公司第一大收入来源，录得收益 100.89亿元，同 比猛增 19.7%，占总收益的 39.4%。"东方树叶"系列是核心增长引擎。 8月26日，农夫山泉（09633.HK，股价46.960港元，市值5281亿港元）发布2025年中期业绩报告。2025 年上半年，公司实现营收256.22亿元，同比增长15.6%，净利润为76.22亿元，同比增长22.1%。 其中，茶饮料板块延续高速增长，包装饮用水业务呈现回暖态势，"水+饮料"双主力板块合力推动公司 业绩再创新高。 | | | | 散 王0月30日 上0個月 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025年 | | 2024年 | | 變動 | | | 產品類別 | 收益 | 比例 | 收益 | 比例 | 收益 | 比例 | | | (人民幣 | | (人民幣 | | (人民幣 | | | | 百萬元) | | 百萬元) | | 日 高元) | | | 包裝飲用水產品 | 9.443 | 36.9% | 8.531 | 38.5% | 912 ...

（企业公告） (编辑：王璨 林辰) 8月26日，农夫山泉发布2025年中期业绩公告。当中披露，2025年上半年，集团录得总收益为256.22亿 元（人民币，下同），同比增长15.6%；母公司拥有人应占溢利约为76.22亿元，同比增长22.1%。 分产品看，包装饮用水产品的收益较去年同期增长10.7%至94.43亿元，在总收益占比为36.9%；茶饮料 产品的收益较去年同期增长19.7%至100.89亿元，在总收益占比为39.4%；此外，功能饮料产品录得收益 28.98亿元，较去年同期增长13.6%，占总收益的11.3%；果汁饮料产品继续维持稳定增长，录得收益 25.64亿元，较去年同期增长21.3%，占总收益的10.0%。 ...

转自：北京日报客户端 WTT中国大满贯2025将于9月25日至10月5日在石景山首钢园举行。届时世界顶尖球员将在这里上演乒 乓世界的巅峰对决。全世界乒乓球迷的目光将再次聚焦石景山。 ▶ 这家老牌超市又"变"了！近70年，陪伴无数海淀人长大 ▶ 酷！炫！顶尖赛事场馆带来非一般的赛事体验 为了更好地迎合顾客需求，提升顾客购物体验，在经历了一个多月的市场调研、现场调改后，有着"门 店坪效之王"之称、承载三代海淀人记忆的超市发双榆树店完成第五次升级改造，于8月22日焕新开业。 ▶ 各区体验官齐聚北京石景山 京彩彩灯游园会解锁夜游新趣 当现代地标遇见东方意蕴，会渲染出怎样的滤镜？一键解锁北京朝阳的东方美学。 ▶ 北京地铁天桥站国家自然博物馆文创店正式运营 地铁里新增"自然文化驿站" 走进北京地铁8号线天桥站，自然科普的气氛悄然蔓延。作为北京市首家地铁站内博物馆文创店，国家 自然博物馆天桥站文创店自8月15日正式运营以来，便以独特的"地铁+文化"融合模式成为城市文化新地 标。 各区体验官齐聚北京石景山，京彩彩灯游园会解锁夜游新趣。 ▶ 十二龙九凤冠震撼亮相，六龙三凤冠首次惊艳荧屏，万历衮服真品首度一展真容！ 十二龙九凤冠 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that despite the prevailing narrative of economic hardship, certain industries are thriving and generating substantial profits, particularly in the context of Japan's "lost 30 years" and its implications for China [3][4]. Group 1: Emerging Opportunities - The concept of a "low-desire society" does not equate to a lack of opportunities; instead, it presents new avenues for business growth [4]. - Consumer behavior is shifting towards second-hand markets, with significant growth in platforms like Xianyu and Zhuanzhuan, indicating a rising demand for second-hand goods [6][9]. - The pet economy is booming, with brands like Guobao and Zhongchong seeing strong sales as consumers prioritize spending on pets over traditional family structures [11][12][15]. - The adult care market is expanding, particularly in China, where products like adult diapers are expected to see significant growth due to an aging population [16][18]. - The beauty and wellness sectors are thriving, with products like collagen supplements and at-home beauty devices gaining popularity, reflecting a continued consumer focus on aesthetics [23]. - Outdoor and leisure activities are on the rise, with brands in camping and outdoor gear experiencing increased sales as consumers seek experiences over material possessions [24][30]. - The emotional economy is gaining traction, with products that provide comfort and joy, such as low-alcohol beverages, becoming increasingly popular [25][26]. - The "lazy economy" is emerging, driven by younger generations who prefer convenience, leading to growth in frozen food and smart home appliances [29][31]. Group 2: Market Trends and Strategies - The article suggests that the current economic climate, often viewed as a "winter," actually presents opportunities for those willing to invest in counter-cyclical sectors [33]. - The upcoming event, "Black Horse Consumption Rise," aims to provide insights into how Japanese and Chinese companies can thrive in a stock market era through product innovation and brand expansion [34][39]. - The importance of understanding consumer needs and market segmentation is highlighted, with successful companies focusing on niche markets and innovative product offerings [42]. - The article discusses the significance of global branding and the need for Chinese companies to build trust in international markets through effective storytelling and cultural adaptation [43][49].

Core Insights - The "Green Water Economy" initiative in Guangdong aims to transform ecological advantages into economic benefits, marking the 20th anniversary of the "Lucid Waters and Lush Mountains are Invaluable Assets" concept [1][3] - The white paper outlines a systematic approach to developing the green water economy, focusing on a target, three coordinated strategies, six development models, and four expected outcomes [1][3] Development Background - The green water economy encompasses various economic activities centered around the protection and rational use of water resources, environment, ecology, and culture [2] - It includes both the transformation of traditional water industries and the emergence of new water-related industries [2] Development Models - Six development models have been identified, including: - Water-City Integration Model: Promotes the synergy between urban functions and water systems [6] - Characteristic Industry-Driven Model: Focuses on leveraging regional resources to enhance industry chains [7] - Asset Utilization Model: Revitalizes water infrastructure through cultural and recreational developments [7] - Ecological Protection Development Model: Balances ecological conservation with economic benefits [8] - Quality Resource Value-Added Model: Develops high-quality water products and brands [8] - Cultural Tourism Empowerment Model: Integrates cultural elements into water tourism [8] Development Strategies - The initiative emphasizes three coordinated strategies: - Balancing development and protection to ensure ecological integrity [5] - Coordinating market and government roles to create a favorable economic environment [5] - Aligning supply and demand to enhance economic circulation [5] Achievements and Future Outlook - Significant investments have been made, with approximately 120 billion yuan invested in pilot projects, 80% of which comes from social capital [9] - The water economy has created new consumption scenarios, attracting over 35 million tourists in recent years [10] - The initiative aims to enhance water resource management and promote high-quality development through strategic planning and community involvement [11]

Core Insights - The functional beverage market is projected to reach 166.5 billion yuan in 2024, becoming a significant competitor to the tea market [1] - Generation Z (ages 18-35) accounts for 65% of the sales in the functional beverage sector, indicating a strong consumer base among younger demographics [1] Market Overview - The functional beverage market is being compared to the tea market, highlighting its rapid growth and popularity among consumers [1] - The increasing consumption of functional drinks is driven by their appeal as energy boosters for various groups, including athletes, night workers, and students [1] Health Concerns - A 600ml bottle of a typical functional beverage contains 75.54 grams of sugar, equivalent to consuming 17 sugar cubes, raising concerns about health implications [1] - Overconsumption of functional beverages can lead to addiction and health issues such as headaches, anxiety, and insomnia due to high caffeine and sugar content [4] Consumer Behavior - The marketing strategies of functional beverage brands are heavily focused on appealing to the lifestyle and consumption habits of Generation Z, promoting efficiency and vitality [3] - More than 40% of consumers report drinking energy drinks 1-2 times a week, with common scenarios including late-night studying and socializing [3] Product Analysis - Various brands have different caffeine and taurine content, with Red Bull containing 133.04 mg of caffeine per 100ml, while other brands like Monster and Lehu have varying levels [2] - The average sugar content in a can of functional beverage ranges from 25g to 37.62g, which is significantly higher than the recommended daily intake [4]

Group 1 - The global market is experiencing significant turbulence, with a sharp decline in European and American stock markets, reminiscent of the global market crash in April. However, the current situation is more complex than before [1][3] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July was shocking, with only 70,000 jobs added and previous months' data revised down by 250,000, leading to a 90% error margin. This unexpected data has increased the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September to 75% [1][3] - Northbound capital saw a net purchase of 68 billion yuan in July, marking a new high for the year, while the margin financing balance exceeded 1.94 trillion yuan, indicating that new capital is quietly positioning itself [1][3] Group 2 - The market at the 3600-point level has become a battleground for bulls and bears, with significant trading volume masking the reality of capital rotation among existing funds. The rapid sector rotation is evident, with broker stocks surging one day and funds quickly shifting to semiconductors [3][5] - Current policies differ from those in 2015, focusing on precise measures rather than broad liquidity injections. The central government's crackdown on low-price competition has included new energy sectors in supply-side reforms [3][5] - Policy benefits are reflected in the stock market, with steel and coal stocks seeing over 20% gains in two months, as leading companies previously affected by competition are now experiencing profit and valuation recovery [3][5] Group 3 - Investment opportunities are identified along three main lines: 1. Technology growth stocks, with significant order increases in AI and semiconductor sectors [5] 2. Cyclical stocks benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, such as rising aluminum prices and improved performance from companies like Zijin Mining and China Shenhua [5] 3. Consumer sector expectations, with a shift towards high-growth segments like functional beverages and pet food, while traditional high-end liquor sales remain flat [5] Group 4 - Risks are present, particularly during the earnings season, with some companies facing severe declines due to performance issues. For instance, a solid-state battery concept stock plummeted 40% in a week due to low production yield [7] - Foreign capital has been more aggressive than expected, with significant investments in companies like CATL and upgrades in ratings from major financial institutions [7] - The market is undergoing a transformation, with new regulations limiting large-scale sell-offs and a decrease in IPO approval rates, indicating a gradual resolution of liquidity risks [7][8] Group 5 - The most dangerous speculation involves high-leverage investments in thematic stocks, with some companies trading at unsustainable price-to-earnings ratios. A focus on "three low assets" (low valuation, low attention, low chip pressure) is recommended for safer investments [8] - The market's direction will depend on two catalysts: the financial opening details to be released at the Lujiazui Forum on August 18 and the potential for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which could trigger a global risk-on mode [8] - The market sentiment is shifting, as evidenced by record high holdings in call options for the 50ETF and a significant short-covering ratio among hedge funds [8]