每经记者｜王紫薇 丁舟洋 每经编辑｜董兴生 "水基础，水源地就不基础"，这是全球包装饮用水品牌验证过的"市场心经"。法国品牌以阿尔卑斯山冰川融水为卖点，强调"经过15年自然过滤才被采出"； 斐济品牌则借助"火山岛深层水"的概念，常年在美国高端水市场占据一席之地。 天然水源不仅是自然馈赠，还是水企的品牌故事，更是产业链最稀缺的资产。 如今，类似的逻辑正在中国上演。随着消费者对"健康水""天然水"的需求提升，国内包装水企业不再满足于讲口感故事，而是把目光投向山林深处。 9月底，《每日经济新闻》记者来到国内饮用水品牌"取水胜地"——吉林长白山。在这里，众多国内外知名饮用水品牌都在周边"寻水"建厂。在包装与营销 之外，供应链上游，围绕山林深处优质水源的竞争也已开始。 水源地附近 图片来源：每经记者 王紫薇 摄 把水里的矿物质都去掉，反而会增加疾病发生风险 一方面，城市自来水供应必须保障"龙头水"的安全；另一方面，消费者对饮水的诉求正在发生转变，从追求解渴到追求健康，从注重包装营销到回溯源头品 质。饮用水市场正在经历结构性转型。 "健康应该是一种高于安全的、良好和积极的生命形态，不仅仅限于虚弱和不得疾病。基于这个理念， ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, attributed to intensified competition and structural adjustments within the industry [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for H1 2025 was 6.206 billion yuan, a decrease of 19% year-on-year - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.805 billion yuan, down 29% year-on-year - Gross margin decreased by 3 percentage points to 46.67%, primarily due to a decline in bottled water sales and an increase in low-margin beverage products [1] Cost Structure - Sales and distribution expenses as a percentage of revenue increased by 3 percentage points to 30.36% - Administrative expenses as a percentage of revenue rose by 0.4 percentage points to 2.33% - Net profit margin decreased by 2 percentage points to 12.97% [1] Product Performance - Revenue from bottled water sales fell by 23% to 5.251 billion yuan, with small, medium, and large bottled water products experiencing declines of 26%, 19%, and 2% respectively - Beverage sales increased by 21% to 0.955 billion yuan, accounting for 15.39% of total revenue, with 14 new product SKUs launched in H1 2025 [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to establish two new bottled water factories in Q3 and Q4 of 2025 and add two beverage cooperative factories to optimize production capacity in Southern and Eastern China - The ongoing adjustment of distribution channels aims to enhance family consumption scenarios and expand online purchasing options [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company faces short-term pressure on profitability due to intensified competition and structural adjustments, with a decrease in gross margin by 3 percentage points to 46.67% in H1 2025 [5] - Despite challenges in the packaging water segment, the beverage business shows promising growth, with beverage sales increasing by 21% to 0.955 billion yuan in H1 2025 [6] - The company plans to enhance production capacity by adding two new packaging water factories and two beverage cooperative factories in the second half of 2025, which is expected to improve overall production costs and profitability [5] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, total revenue was 6.206 billion yuan, a decrease of 19% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.805 billion yuan, down 29% [4] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 0.54, 0.64, and 0.74 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 20, 17, and 14 times [7] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 12.004 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.2% decline year-on-year, with a net profit forecast of 1.292 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.1% [10] Product and Market Strategy - The company has launched 14 new SKU products in H1 2025, enhancing its product offerings to meet diverse consumer needs [6] - The company is actively optimizing its distribution channels and expanding into emerging markets to cater to family consumption scenarios [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company's 1H25 performance met expectations, with revenue of 6.206 billion yuan, down 18.5% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 805 million yuan, down 28.6% year-on-year [1]. Group 1: Packaging Water Business - The packaging water business is under pressure due to intensified industry competition, with revenue declining 23.1% year-on-year to 5.25 billion yuan [2]. - Factors contributing to the decline include increased promotional competition, channel reform adjustments, and operational rhythm impacts from 1H24 [2]. - Despite the overall decline, the company's retail sales growth in packaging water outperformed the industry, with market share increasing by 0.5 percentage points to 19.3% compared to the end of 2024 [1]. Group 2: Beverage Business - Beverage revenue grew by 21.3% year-on-year to 950 million yuan, driven by a focus on tea, juice, and sports drinks, and the introduction of 14 new SKUs in the first half of the year [2]. - The company is responding to consumer trends by implementing a large packaging strategy to alleviate price competition pressures [2]. Group 3: Financial Metrics and Profitability - The company's gross margin decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 46.7%, primarily due to the underperformance of the packaging water business, while the beverage segment saw an improvement in gross margin [2]. - Selling expenses increased by 2.9 percentage points to 30.4% due to higher marketing and channel expenses to address intensified competition [2]. - The net profit margin decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 13%, indicating pressure on profitability due to declining gross margins and increased expenses [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue adjustments in product matrix and channel reforms in the second half of the year, which are seen as preparations for long-term growth [3]. - An improvement in operational conditions is anticipated during the beverage peak season, with expectations of year-on-year growth in both packaging water and beverage sales in July and August [3]. - Profitability forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 18% and 2% to 1.09 billion yuan and 1.53 billion yuan, respectively, with a target price reduction of 29% to 12 HKD [3].

Overall Industry Performance - In the first half of 2025, 70 out of 106 companies reported varying degrees of performance decline, with 57 experiencing revenue drops and 48 facing net profit declines, indicating a trend of prioritizing profit preservation over revenue growth [1][2] - The consumer market remains weak, leading to supply-demand imbalances, intense competition, and price wars [1] Dairy Industry - The dairy sector is significantly impacted, with 25 out of 33 listed companies reporting performance declines, primarily due to falling liquid milk sales [1][3] - Major players like Yili and Mengniu saw substantial revenue drops in their liquid milk segments, with Yili's liquid milk revenue decreasing by 7.61 billion yuan and Mengniu's by 40.48 billion yuan [3][4] - Conversely, the milk powder segment shows signs of structural recovery, with some companies reporting revenue growth due to market consolidation and subsidy policies [3][5] Snack Industry - Snack companies are largely struggling, with brands like Liuyinpuzi and Laiyifen reporting losses, while others like Qiaqia and Three Squirrels experienced significant profit declines [1][2] - The challenges stem from channel transformations and rising costs, particularly in raw materials, leading to increased customer acquisition costs [1] Beverage Industry - The beverage sector shows mixed results, with companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng achieving record net profits, while others like China Resources Beverage faced revenue declines [9][10] - Nongfu Spring's tea beverage segment surpassed 10 billion yuan in revenue for the first time, indicating strong market performance [9] Seasoned Food Industry - The seasoning industry is experiencing increasing differentiation, with leading companies like Haitian maintaining stable growth while others like Zhongju Gaoxin face significant declines [7][8] - Many companies are adjusting their channel strategies in response to market saturation, with a focus on international expansion [8] Convenience Food Industry - The convenience food sector shows slight recovery among leading companies, with Shuanghui Development reporting a revenue increase of 2.97% [13] - Notably, Guoquan Foods achieved remarkable growth, with revenue and net profit increasing significantly [14] Overall Conclusion - The food industry is facing a challenging environment with more companies reporting declines than gains, but there are still structural growth opportunities for those willing to adapt and innovate [14]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for H1 2025, primarily due to intensified competition and channel adjustments in the packaging water segment, while the beverage segment showed steady growth [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - H1 2025 revenue reached 6.206 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.52%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 805 million yuan, down 28.63% [1]. - The packaging water segment generated revenue of 5.251 billion yuan, a decline of 23.11%, while the beverage segment achieved 955 million yuan, an increase of 21.28% [1]. - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 46.67%, down 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by reduced revenue and increased sales expenses [2]. Group 2: Business Segments - The packaging water business faced challenges with revenue from small, medium, and large-sized water products declining by 26.2%, 19.4%, and 1.5% respectively [1]. - The beverage business focused on product series such as "Benqingrun," "Moli Water," and "Honey Water," benefiting from nationwide distribution and targeted marketing efforts [1]. Group 3: Operational Adjustments - The company is addressing external competition by optimizing inventory and increasing investments to maintain market share, while also expanding the SKU range for packaging water [3]. - New beverage products were launched in H1, including "Benqingrun Stewed Pear Flavor" and upgraded "Moli Water," indicating a commitment to innovation [3]. - Production efficiency improvements are underway, with new production lines expected to enhance capacity and operational performance [3]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - Despite current pressures, the long-term growth logic remains intact, with a recommendation to monitor operational adjustments and production efficiency improvements [4]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025-2027, now projecting net profits of 1.29 billion, 1.62 billion, and 1.91 billion yuan respectively [4]. - A target price of 15 HKD is set for the next year, reflecting a PE ratio of approximately 20X for 2026 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The bottled water market is experiencing intense competition, with a price war leading to a normalization of 1 yuan water, impacting profitability for major players like Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverage [5][10][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, Nongfu Spring reported revenue of 25.622 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, with a net profit of approximately 7.622 billion yuan, up 22.1% [5]. - China Resources Beverage's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 6.206 billion yuan, down 18.5%, with profits declining by 28.7% [5][11]. - The bottled water segment for China Resources Beverage, which constitutes over 80% of its revenue, saw a 23.1% decline in revenue to 5.251 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [11]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The price war has led to a significant drop in revenue for both Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverage, with their bottled water business revenues not returning to 2023 levels [10][11]. - New entrants like Pinduoduo, Dongfang Zhenxuan, and Yuanqi Forest are further fragmenting the market share of traditional water companies [6]. - The competition is expected to intensify as both established and new players expand their product lines beyond bottled water [7][14]. Group 3: Product Strategy and Innovation - In response to market changes, Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverage are diversifying their product offerings, with Nongfu Spring's tea beverage segment achieving revenue of 10.09 billion yuan, a 19.7% increase [18]. - The introduction of new products, including sugar tea and iced tea, is seen as a strategy to capture market share in a competitive landscape [19][20]. - The iced tea market, dominated by brands like Master Kong and Uni-President, presents opportunities for new entrants as they seek to capitalize on pricing strategies and consumer preferences [21].

Core Insights - The bottled water market remains competitive in 2025, with significant developments from leading companies like Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverage [2][10]. Group 1: Company Performance - Nongfu Spring reported a revenue of 25.622 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, with a net profit of approximately 7.622 billion yuan, up 22.1% [2]. - China Resources Beverage's revenue for the same period was 6.206 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 18.5%, with a profit of 0.823 billion yuan, down 28.7% [3][11]. - Despite a return to growth, Nongfu Spring's bottled water revenue of 9.443 billion yuan in 2025 was still below the 10.442 billion yuan recorded in 2023 [12]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The price war in the bottled water sector has led to a normalization of prices, with "1 yuan water" becoming common, affecting profitability across the industry [13][9]. - New entrants like Pinduoduo and Yuanqi Forest have begun to capture market share from traditional water companies, intensifying competition [5][18]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with companies diversifying into beverage categories beyond bottled water to seek new growth opportunities [6][21]. Group 3: Product Innovations - In response to market changes, Nongfu Spring has launched new products in the tea and juice segments, with its tea beverage revenue reaching 10.09 billion yuan, a 19.7% increase [23]. - China Resources Beverage has also introduced 14 new products across various beverage categories, increasing its beverage revenue to 0.955 billion yuan, up 21.3% [24]. - The ice tea segment is becoming a focal point for competition, with multiple brands entering the market, although established players like Master Kong and Uni-President dominate this category [29][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Resources Beverage (02460.HK) with a target price of 15 HKD [1][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.206 billion HKD for H1 2025, a decrease of 18.52% year-on-year, and a net profit of 805 million HKD, down 28.63% year-on-year. The report highlights that the company is facing temporary operational pressure but emphasizes the importance of operational adjustments and beverage product development for long-term growth [1][8]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 13.521 billion HKD, with a decline to 11.872 billion HKD in 2025E, followed by a recovery to 13.069 billion HKD in 2026E and 14.052 billion HKD in 2027E [3][14]. - Net profit is expected to decrease from 1.637 billion HKD in 2024 to 1.286 billion HKD in 2025E, before rising to 1.620 billion HKD in 2026E and 1.907 billion HKD in 2027E [3][14]. - **Key Financial Ratios**: - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.54 HKD, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.7 [3][14]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio is 44.65%, indicating a moderate level of debt [4]. - **H1 2025 Performance**: - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 46.67%, down 2.6 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 13.26%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [8][9]. Business Segment Performance - **Beverage and Packaging Water**: - The packaging water segment saw a revenue decline of 23.11% to 5.251 billion HKD, while the beverage segment grew by 21.28% to 955 million HKD in H1 2025. The report notes that the company is focusing on product series such as "Benqingrun" and "Moli Water" to drive growth [8][9]. - **Cost Management**: - The report indicates that while raw material prices have decreased, the overall revenue decline has weakened scale effects, leading to increased costs in sales and marketing efforts [8][9]. Strategic Outlook - The report suggests that despite the current operational challenges, the long-term growth logic remains intact. The company is focusing on inventory optimization, channel adjustments, and the introduction of new beverage products to enhance its market position [8][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of production efficiency improvements and the development of new beverage lines as key factors for future profitability [8][9].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 6.206 billion for the first half of 2025, representing an 18.5% decrease compared to the same period last year, primarily due to reduced sales of packaged water and increased marketing resource investment [1] - The profit attributable to the company's owners for the period was RMB 0.805 billion, down from RMB 1.128 billion in the previous year [1] - The gross profit margin for the reporting period was 46.7%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by revenue decline and changes in product mix [1] Product Performance - Revenue from packaged drinking water was RMB 5.251 billion, a 23.1% decrease year-on-year, accounting for 84.6% of total revenue [1] - Beverage products generated revenue of RMB 0.955 billion, reflecting a 21.3% increase compared to the previous year, with their share of total revenue rising to 15.4% [1] - The company launched 14 new SKU products in the beverage sector during the first half of 2025, including the "Zhiben Qingrun Series" and "Honey Water Series," aimed at meeting diverse consumer needs across various consumption scenarios [1]