Core Insights - Oshkosh Corporation reported weaker-than-expected earnings for Q1, with adjusted earnings of $1.92 per share, missing market estimates of $2.05 per share [1] - Quarterly sales were $2.31 billion, below expectations of $2.41 billion [1] Group 1 - The company expressed satisfaction with its start to 2025, highlighting strong performance in the Vocational segment and double-digit margins in the Access segment [2] - CEO John Pfeifer noted that the results reflect the strength of the team and the resilience of the operating model [2] - Oshkosh shares increased by 3.8% to $86.96 following the earnings announcement [3] Group 2 - Analysts adjusted their price targets for Oshkosh after the earnings report, with Baird maintaining an Outperform rating but lowering the target from $163 to $135 [8] - Truist Securities maintained a Hold rating and reduced the price target from $94 to $93 [8] - JP Morgan kept a Neutral rating and lowered the price target from $100 to $92 [8]

Core Insights - Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) reported first-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $1.92 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.02, and a decline from $2.89 in the same period last year [1] - Consolidated net sales fell 9.1% year over year to $2.31 billion, also missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.41 billion [1] Segmental Performance - **Access Segment**: Net sales declined 22.7% year over year to $957.1 million due to lower sales volume in North America and higher discounts, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $993 million. Operating income fell 50.5% to $103.1 million, accounting for 10.8% of sales, also missing the estimate of $114 million [2] - **Defense Segment**: Net revenues declined 9.1% year over year to $463 million due to lower sales of tactical wheeled vehicles, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $519 million. Operating income fell 95.5% year over year to $0.6 million, lagging the estimate of $14.12 million [3] - **Vocational Segment**: Net sales rose 12.2% year over year to $866.8 million, but lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $873 million. Operating income surged 47.1% to $117.8 million, accounting for 13.6% of sales, surpassing the estimate of $115 million [4] Financial Overview - As of March 31, 2025, Oshkosh had cash and cash equivalents of $210.3 million, up from $204.9 million as of December 31, 2024. Long-term debt increased to $1.1 billion from $599.5 million as of December 31, 2024 [4] Dividend Declaration - Oshkosh declared a quarterly cash dividend of 51 cents per share, payable on May 30, 2025, to shareholders of record as of May 16, 2025 [5] 2025 Guidance - The company anticipates full-year 2025 adjusted earnings per share to be $11, with a net negative impact of about $1 per share from tariffs, partially offset by cost reductions of up to 50 cents per share [6] Zacks Rank - Oshkosh currently carries a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell). In comparison, Hesai Group (HSAI) has a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), and Standard Motor Products, Inc. (SMP) has a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [7]

Core Viewpoint - Oshkosh reported a decline in revenue and earnings for the quarter ended March 2025, indicating potential challenges in its financial performance [1][3]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the quarter was $2.31 billion, down 9.1% year-over-year, and below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.41 billion by 4.17% [1]. - Earnings per share (EPS) were $1.92, a decrease from $2.89 in the same quarter last year, and also fell short of the consensus estimate of $2.02 by 4.95% [1]. Key Metrics - Net Sales- Access- Total: $957.10 million, down 22.7% year-over-year, and below the average estimate of $992.50 million [4]. - Net Sales- Access- Aerial work platforms: $450.80 million, a decline of 23.7% compared to the previous year, and below the estimate of $470.40 million [4]. - Net Sales- Access- Telehandlers: $244.50 million, down 34.5% year-over-year, and below the average estimate of $298.36 million [4]. - Net Sales- Defense: $463 million, down 13.8% year-over-year, and below the estimate of $519.18 million [4]. - Net Sales- Vocational- Total: $866.80 million, a 12.2% increase year-over-year, but slightly below the estimate of $873.40 million [4]. Operating Income - Adjusted Vocational segment operating income was $128.80 million, exceeding the average estimate of $118.12 million [4]. - Adjusted Access segment operating income was $107.80 million, below the estimate of $116.23 million [4]. - Operating income for Defense was $0.60 million, significantly lower than the average estimate of $14.12 million [4]. Stock Performance - Oshkosh shares have returned -6.1% over the past month, underperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which changed by -0.2% [3]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), suggesting potential underperformance in the near term [3].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported revenue of $2.3 billion for Q1 2025, a decrease of $231 million or 9% from the same quarter last year, primarily due to softer market conditions for access equipment in North America [21][22] - Adjusted operating income was $192 million, representing an operating margin of 8.3%, down from the prior year due to lower sales volume and higher operating expenses [21][22] - Adjusted EPS was $1.92, in line with expectations of approximately $2 per share [21][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Access segment achieved an adjusted operating margin of 11.3% despite lower sales, with a backlog of $1.8 billion [12][21] - The Vocational segment saw strong year-over-year revenue growth of 12%, with an adjusted operating income margin of nearly 15% [14][15] - The Defense segment is ramping up production for the NGDV program, with expectations for strong revenue growth in the latter half of 2025 [18][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The backlog for the Access segment remained strong at $1.8 billion, indicating healthy demand despite market conditions [12][54] - The Vocational segment's backlog is robust at $6.3 billion, providing excellent visibility for future revenue [15] - The company noted that while demand in the access equipment segment is strong, there is weakness in the private non-residential construction markets due to high interest rates [70] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on mitigating tariff impacts through a proactive global supply chain strategy and localizing production where necessary [10][11] - Continued investment in technology and innovation is emphasized, particularly in the refuse and recycling market, to drive productivity and meet customer needs [14][75] - The company is exploring M&A opportunities but prioritizes mitigating tariff impacts and returning capital to shareholders in the current environment [62][64] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the operational performance trajectory across all segments, despite near-term volatility from tariffs [10][26] - The company anticipates that the direct impact of tariffs could be about $1 per share, with efforts to mitigate this impact potentially offsetting up to $0.50 per share [24][88] - Customer sentiment remains balanced, with a healthy backlog and no significant defleeting observed in the market [55] Other Important Information - The company has entered into a new $500 million term loan to provide additional liquidity, which will be used to reduce the balance on its revolving credit facility [22] - Share repurchases totaled nearly 290,000 shares for $29 million during the quarter, benefiting adjusted EPS [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: How is the company addressing tariff impacts? - Management aims to minimize the impact on customers and has identified key areas for mitigation, focusing on targeted countries [31][32] Question: What are the cost headwinds related to tariffs? - The Access segment is most affected due to its global supply chain, particularly from China and Europe [40][41] Question: How will the defense segment's revenue ramp up? - The company expects to exit the year at a full production run rate of 16,000 to 20,000 units for the NGDV program, with margins expected to improve sequentially [43][44] Question: What is the sentiment among customers regarding tariffs? - Customers maintain a balanced view, with a healthy backlog indicating continued demand [55] Question: How is the company managing capital deployment? - The focus is on mitigating tariffs while also exploring M&A opportunities in healthy segments [62][64]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported revenue of $2.3 billion for the first quarter, a decrease of $231 million or 9% from the same quarter last year, primarily due to softer market conditions for access equipment in North America [19] - Adjusted operating income was $192 million, representing 8.3% of sales, down from the prior year due to lower sales volume and higher operating expenses [19] - Adjusted EPS was $1.92, in line with expectations of approximately $2 per share [19][20] - Free cash flow reflected a net use of cash of $435 million due to seasonal working capital needs [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes Access Segment - Adjusted operating margin was 11.3% despite lower sales, with a strong backlog of $1.8 billion [9] - The segment booked orders of $930 million with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.0, indicating stable demand [9] Vocational Segment - Achieved year-over-year revenue growth of 12% with a robust adjusted operating income margin of nearly 15% [11] - Backlog remains strong at $6.3 billion, providing excellent visibility for future revenue [12] Defense Segment - First quarter results reflected lower volume but progress on the production ramp-up for the NGDV program [15] - The company is on target to increase NGDV volume to full-rate production by year-end, which is expected to drive revenue growth in the latter half of 2025 [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The backlog for the Access segment remained stable at $1.8 billion, indicating healthy demand despite market challenges [9] - The vocational segment is benefiting from strong demand in refuse and recycling vehicle sales, supported by technological advancements [12][71] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on mitigating tariff impacts through a broad U.S. production footprint and proactive supply chain management [6][7] - Continued investment in technology and innovation is emphasized, particularly in the vocational segment with advancements in electric fire trucks and telematics solutions [13][70] - The company maintains a strong balance sheet and is open to M&A opportunities, particularly in growth segments [60] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the underlying trajectory of operational performance across all segments, despite near-term volatility due to tariffs [6][22] - The company anticipates that the direct impact of tariffs could be about $1 per share, with efforts to mitigate this through cost actions [20][22] - Customer sentiment remains balanced, with healthy demand in various end markets, particularly in infrastructure projects [50][67] Other Important Information - The company is planning an Investor Day on June 5, 2025, to share future plans and insights from key leaders [4] - The defense business is undergoing a leadership transition, with a new segment leader expected to be announced later this year [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: How is the company addressing tariffs? - Management aims to minimize the impact of tariffs on customers, leveraging pricing power while focusing on targeted mitigation strategies [28][30] Question: What are the cost headwinds related to tariffs? - The most significant impacts are expected in the Access segment, with mitigation efforts being broad-based across the company [38][44] Question: How is the defense segment expected to perform? - The defense segment is projected to ramp up production, with expectations of strong revenue growth in the latter half of 2025 [40][41] Question: What is the outlook for the vocational segment? - The vocational segment is expected to maintain strong margins and continue benefiting from technological advancements and a robust backlog [69][70] Question: How is customer sentiment regarding tariffs? - Customers maintain a balanced view, with healthy demand reflected in the strong backlog for the Access segment [50][68]

Core Viewpoint - Oshkosh (OSK) reported quarterly earnings of $1.92 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.02 per share, and down from $2.89 per share a year ago [1][2] Financial Performance - The earnings surprise for the quarter was -4.95%, with previous expectations of $2.18 per share, while actual earnings were $2.58, resulting in a positive surprise of 18.35% in the prior quarter [2] - Revenues for the quarter were $2.31 billion, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.17%, and down from $2.54 billion year-over-year [3] - Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times and topped revenue estimates three times [2][3] Stock Performance - Oshkosh shares have declined approximately 7.2% since the beginning of the year, compared to a decline of 5.5% for the S&P 500 [4] - The current Zacks Rank for Oshkosh is 4 (Sell), indicating expected underperformance in the near future [7] Future Outlook - The consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $3.05 on revenues of $2.71 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $10.48 on revenues of $10.38 billion [8] - The estimate revisions trend for Oshkosh is currently unfavorable, which may change following the recent earnings report [7] Industry Context - The Automotive - Original Equipment industry, to which Oshkosh belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 36% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting potential challenges ahead [9]

Oshkosh Corporation First Quarter 2025 April 30, 2025 JOHN PFEIFER - PRESIDENT AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER MATTHEW FIELD – EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT AND CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER PATRICK DAVIDSON – SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, INVESTOR RELATIONS Forward-looking statements This presentation contains statements that the Company believes to be "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All statements other than statements of historical fact, including, witho ...

Core Viewpoint - Analysts forecast a significant decline in Oshkosh's quarterly earnings and revenues, indicating potential challenges for the company in the upcoming earnings report [1]. Earnings Estimates - Oshkosh is expected to report earnings of $2.02 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 30.1% [1]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been adjusted downward by 0.8% over the past 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [2]. - Revisions to earnings estimates are crucial indicators for predicting investor actions regarding the stock [3]. Revenue Projections - Total revenues are anticipated to be $2.41 billion, showing a decline of 5.1% compared to the same quarter last year [1]. - Analysts project 'Net sales- Vocational- Total' to reach $873.40 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 13.1% [5]. - 'Net Sales- Access- Total' is expected to be $992.50 million, indicating a decline of 19.8% year over year [5]. - The consensus estimate for 'Net Sales- Defense' is $519.18 million, suggesting a decrease of 3.3% from the previous year [5]. Segment Performance - 'Net Sales- Access- Telehandlers' is estimated at $298.36 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 20.1% [6]. - 'Net Sales- Access- Aerial work platforms' is projected to be $470.40 million, indicating a decrease of 20.4% from the prior year [6]. - 'Net Sales- Vocational- Fire apparatus' is expected to reach $371.55 million, with a year-over-year increase of 13.6% [7]. Operating Income Estimates - 'Operating income (loss)- Vocational' is projected at $114.65 million, compared to $80.10 million in the same quarter last year [7]. - 'Operating income (loss)- Access' is expected to be $113.64 million, down from $208.10 million reported in the same quarter last year [8]. - 'Operating income (loss)- Defense' is forecasted to reach $14.12 million, compared to $11.30 million in the same quarter last year [8]. Stock Performance - Oshkosh shares have declined by 5.9% over the past month, underperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which moved down by 4.3% [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of value investing and highlights Oshkosh (OSK) as a strong value stock opportunity based on its financial metrics and Zacks Rank system [2][4][6]. Company Analysis - Oshkosh (OSK) currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) and an A for Value, indicating strong potential for investors [4]. - The stock is trading at a P/E ratio of 8.73, significantly lower than the industry average P/E of 18.67, suggesting it may be undervalued [4]. - OSK's Forward P/E has fluctuated between 8.25 and 12.12 over the past year, with a median of 9.35, indicating stable valuation metrics [4]. - The company has a P/B ratio of 1.55, which is favorable compared to the industry average P/B of 3.05, further supporting its value proposition [5]. - Over the past year, OSK's P/B has ranged from 1.40 to 2.20, with a median of 1.73, reflecting consistent valuation levels [5]. - The combination of these metrics suggests that OSK is likely being undervalued, making it an attractive investment opportunity [6].

Core Viewpoint - Oshkosh (OSK) shares have increased by 7.3% in the past four weeks, closing at $102.65, with a mean price target of $128.43 indicating a potential upside of 25.1% [1] Price Targets and Analyst Estimates - The mean estimate consists of 14 short-term price targets with a standard deviation of $17.67, where the lowest estimate of $110 suggests a 7.2% increase, and the highest estimate predicts a 74.4% surge to $179 [2] - A low standard deviation among price targets indicates a high degree of agreement among analysts regarding the stock's price movement direction [7] Earnings Estimates and Analyst Optimism - Analysts are optimistic about OSK's earnings prospects, as indicated by a strong consensus in revising EPS estimates higher, which correlates with potential stock price increases [9] - Over the last 30 days, six earnings estimates for OSK have increased, leading to a 5.8% rise in the Zacks Consensus Estimate [10] Zacks Rank and Investment Potential - OSK holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate factors, suggesting a strong potential upside [11] - While consensus price targets may not reliably indicate the extent of potential gains, they can provide a useful guide for price movement direction [12]