Core Viewpoint - Momentum investing focuses on following a stock's recent price trends, aiming to buy high and sell higher, with the expectation that established trends will continue [1] Company Summary: Qifu Technology, Inc. (QFIN) - QFIN currently holds a Momentum Style Score of B, indicating a positive momentum outlook [2] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), suggesting strong potential for outperformance in the market [3] - Over the past week, QFIN shares increased by 4.02%, outperforming the Zacks Technology Services industry, which rose by 2.63% [5] - In a longer timeframe, QFIN's monthly price change is 14.66%, compared to the industry's 10.22% [5] - Over the last quarter, QFIN shares rose by 8.35%, and over the past year, they have surged by 112.04%, while the S&P 500 saw movements of -2.63% and 13.25%, respectively [6] - The average 20-day trading volume for QFIN is 1,527,784 shares, indicating a bullish sign with rising stock prices [7] Earnings Outlook - Recent earnings estimate revisions for QFIN show positive trends, with 2 estimates moving higher and none lower over the past two months [9] - The consensus earnings estimate for QFIN increased from $6.58 to $6.93 in the last 60 days, reflecting a positive outlook [9] - For the next fiscal year, 2 estimates have also moved upwards, with no downward revisions [9] Conclusion - Given the strong performance metrics and positive earnings outlook, QFIN is positioned as a promising momentum pick for investors [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" for both US and Hong Kong stocks [7]. Core Views - The company's 1Q25 performance met expectations with revenue of 46.9 billion RMB, reflecting a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4.7% and a year-over-year increase of 12.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 18.0 billion RMB, which was slightly below the previous quarter but showed a significant year-over-year increase of 54.6% [1][4]. - The company is expected to maintain a cautious lending strategy amid industry changes, with a projected moderate growth in loan volume for 2025 [2][3]. - The risk indicators have shown slight fluctuations but remain at healthy levels, with a C-M2 ratio of 0.60% and a provisioning coverage ratio of 666% [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 1Q25 revenue was 46.9 billion RMB, with a net profit of 18.0 billion RMB, aligning with the company's guidance [1]. - Loan volume for 1Q25 was 889 billion RMB, showing a slight quarter-over-quarter decline of 1.1% but a year-over-year increase of 15.8% [2]. Risk Indicators - The C-M2 ratio increased to 0.60%, while the first-day overdue rate rose to 5.0%. However, these levels are still considered healthy compared to historical averages [3]. - The provisioning coverage ratio improved to 666%, indicating strong profit quality [3]. Profit Forecast - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 71 billion RMB, 77 billion RMB, and 82 billion RMB respectively, with target prices set at 55.6 USD and 220.9 HKD [4][11]. Valuation Methods - The target prices are derived from both PE and DCF valuation methods, with a PE of 6.5x for 2025E [11][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" for both US and Hong Kong stocks [7]. Core Views - The company's 1Q25 performance met expectations with revenue of 46.9 billion RMB, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.7% and a year-on-year increase of 12.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 18.0 billion RMB, which was slightly below the previous quarter but showed a significant year-on-year increase of 54.6% [1][4]. - The company is expected to maintain a cautious lending strategy, with a projected moderate growth in loan volume for 2025, supported by high-quality earnings and substantial shareholder returns [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 1Q25 loan volume was 889 billion RMB, showing a slight quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.1% but a year-on-year increase of 15.8%. The loan balance reached 1,403 billion RMB, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.4% and a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [2]. - The net profit take rate for 1Q25 was 5.2%, down from 5.9% in the previous quarter, indicating a potential impact on short-term profitability [3]. Risk Indicators - The C-M2 ratio increased to 0.60% in 1Q25 from 0.57% in 4Q24, while the first-day overdue rate rose to 5.0%. However, these levels remain healthy compared to historical averages [3]. - The provision coverage ratio improved to 666% from 617% in the previous quarter, indicating strong earnings quality [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been slightly adjusted to 71 billion RMB, 77 billion RMB, and 82 billion RMB respectively, with target prices maintained at 55.6 USD for US stocks and 220.9 HKD for Hong Kong stocks [4][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" for both US and Hong Kong stocks [7]. Core Views - The company's 1Q25 performance met expectations with revenue of 46.9 billion RMB, reflecting a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4.7% and a year-over-year increase of 12.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 18.0 billion RMB, which was slightly below the previous quarter but showed a year-over-year increase of 54.6% [1][4]. - The company is expected to maintain a cautious lending strategy, with a projected moderate growth in loan volume for 2025, supported by high-quality earnings and significant shareholder returns [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 1Q25 loan volume was 889 billion RMB, showing a slight quarter-over-quarter decrease of 1.1% but a year-over-year increase of 15.8%. The loan balance reached 1,403 billion RMB, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.4% and a year-over-year increase of 5.5% [2]. - The net profit take rate for 1Q25 was 5.2%, down from 5.9% in the previous quarter, indicating a potential impact on short-term profitability [3]. Risk Indicators - The C-M2 ratio increased to 0.60% in 1Q25 from 0.57% in 4Q24, while the first-day overdue rate rose to 5.0% from 4.8%. Despite these increases, the risk indicators remain at healthy levels, below the average of 0.62% from 1Q21 to 4Q24 [3]. - The provision coverage ratio improved to 666% from 617% in the previous quarter, indicating strong earnings quality [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been slightly adjusted to 71 billion RMB, 77 billion RMB, and 82 billion RMB respectively, with target prices maintained at 55.6 USD for US stocks and 220.9 HKD for Hong Kong stocks [4][8].

Core Insights - The article presents the market capitalization rankings of the top 50 Chinese technology and internet companies as of May 21, 2025, highlighting significant players in the industry [1]. Group 1: Market Capitalization Rankings - Alibaba leads the list with a market capitalization of 2986.04 billion [3]. - Xiaomi ranks second with a market capitalization of 1805.85 billion [3]. - Pinduoduo follows closely in third place with a market capitalization of 1666.38 billion [3]. - Meituan and NetEase occupy the fourth and fifth positions with market capitalizations of 1069.68 billion and 766.11 billion, respectively [3][4]. Group 2: Additional Rankings - JD.com is ranked eighth with a market capitalization of 489.39 billion [4]. - Baidu and Li Auto are positioned at 11th and 12th with market capitalizations of 307.12 billion and 302.4 billion, respectively [4][5]. - The rankings continue with companies like Kuaishou, Tencent Music, and Beike, showcasing a diverse range of technology and internet firms [5][6]. Group 3: Market Trends - The data reflects the competitive landscape of the Chinese technology sector, with significant fluctuations in market capitalizations among the top players [1]. - The rankings are calculated based on the latest market values, indicating the dynamic nature of the industry [6].

Core Viewpoint - CICC has raised the profit forecast for Qifu Technology-S (03660) for 2025 and 2026 by 2% and 4% respectively, due to optimized funding/credit costs and higher-than-expected loan disbursement in Q1 2025 [1] Financial Performance - Qifu Technology's Q1 2025 revenue increased by 13% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter to 4.69 billion yuan, while non-GAAP net profit rose by 60% year-on-year but decreased by 2% quarter-on-quarter to 1.93 billion yuan, exceeding previous expectations [2] - The company’s net service fee rate was approximately 5.6%, slightly down from 5.96% in Q4 2024, attributed to a decrease in average funding costs and stable asset quality [4] Loan Disbursement and Customer Acquisition - In Q1 2025, the company optimized customer acquisition channels, adding 7 embedded finance partners, with loan disbursement increasing by 16% year-on-year to 88.9 billion yuan, although the quarter-on-quarter growth rate slightly declined due to seasonal factors [3] - The company expects loan disbursement to grow by 5%-10% year-on-year in 2025, maintaining previous forecasts [3] Shareholder Returns - The company maintains a semi-annual dividend policy, planning to distribute cash dividends of $0.6 and $0.7 per ADS for the first and second halves of 2024 respectively [5] - As of May 19, 2025, the company has repurchased 9.1 million ADS for approximately $404.5 million, with an expected total repurchase amount of no less than $680 million for 2025 [5] Industry Development - The introduction of the "Loan Assistance New Regulations" on April 1 aims to enhance the regulatory framework of the industry, potentially eliminating unreasonable pricing and charging behaviors, which may benefit compliant and well-operating institutions like Qifu Technology [6]

Group 1: Ctrip Group (携程集团) - The first quarter revenue met expectations, while profit exceeded market expectations by 9%. The second quarter revenue is expected to grow by 14%, with adjusted operating profit remaining flat year-on-year. The demand for leisure travel continues to grow rapidly. Due to the impact of tariff disturbances on business travel outbound demand in the second quarter, revenue and profit forecasts have been slightly adjusted, with the target price lowered from HKD 605 to HKD 591, maintaining a buy rating [1] Group 2: QFIN Technology (奇富科技) - The first quarter Non-GAAP net profit was CNY 1.926 billion, a year-on-year increase of 59.9%, slightly exceeding the upper limit of the company's previous guidance. The company expects a second quarter Non-GAAP net profit of CNY 1.75-1.85 billion. The significant year-on-year profit growth is mainly attributed to the increase in platform service revenue and a decrease in provisioning expenses [2][3] - The company anticipates a slight decrease in funding costs and expects the net take rate to increase year-on-year for the full year of 2025. The forecast for 2025 Non-GAAP net profit is expected to grow by 15%. As an industry-leading credit technology platform, the company balances risk and growth with diversified business models, providing attractive shareholder returns [3] Group 3: Global Indices and Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,681, reflecting a 1.52% increase, with a year-to-date increase of 15.89%. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index also rose by 1.52%, with a year-to-date increase of 17.82% [4] - Major commodities showed varied performance, with Brent crude oil at USD 65.52, down 14.32% over three months, while gold futures rose by 9.83% [5] Group 4: Economic Data Releases - Upcoming economic data releases include the US Markit Manufacturing PMI expected at 50.2 and the US initial jobless claims expected at 229K. For China, the industrial value-added year-on-year growth is expected to be 7.7% [6]

Core Viewpoint - Qifu Technology (NASDAQ: QFIN; HKEX: 3660) reported a stable financial performance in Q1 2025, with total net revenue reaching RMB 4.69 billion (approximately USD 646 million), reflecting a 4.5% quarter-on-quarter growth, and a non-GAAP net profit of RMB 1.93 billion (approximately USD 265 million), despite a slight decline in net profit compared to the previous quarter, aligning with market expectations [1][2] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Qifu Technology achieved total revenue of RMB 46.9 billion and a non-GAAP net profit of RMB 19.3 billion [2] - The company successfully issued USD 690 million in convertible notes, providing ample financial support for strategic initiatives and enhancing shareholder returns [2] AI Strategy Implementation - Qifu Technology actively advanced its "AI + Finance" strategy, launching an AI-driven credit decision engine and asset distribution platform that connected with 163 financial institutions, serving over 58 million credit users [1] - The AI credit agent was officially implemented in Q1 2025, integrating various intelligent modules across the business chain, marking a significant step in AI application within the financial technology sector [2] AI Decision-Making Capabilities - The AI decision-making module utilizes classic analytical models to diagnose issues like profit stagnation, significantly improving decision-making efficiency by reducing analysis time from weeks to real-time responses [3] - The AI marketing module enhanced customer acquisition, achieving a 33% year-on-year increase in the conversion rate from new credit users to new loan users [3] Compliance and Risk Management - The AI compliance module improved efficiency by reducing the time required for regulatory document interpretation from 40 hours to 2 hours, with accuracy rising from 68% to 99.2% [4] - Qifu Technology's risk control innovations enhanced precision and efficiency, achieving over 95% accuracy in user characteristic consistency checks [5] Strategic Partnerships and Market Position - In Q1 2025, Qifu Technology's subsidiary signed contracts with three mid-to-large city commercial banks, with a 144% year-on-year increase in business scale driven by financial technology [6] - The company established strategic partnerships with multiple banks to implement AI-driven solutions in key areas such as marketing, risk control, and decision analysis, reinforcing its leading position in the financial technology sector [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, non-GAAP net income increased by 59.9% year over year to RMB 1.93 billion, while non-GAAP EPS on a fully diluted basis rose by 78.5% to RMB 13.5 [7][28] - Total revenue for Q1 was RMB 4.69 billion, compared to RMB 4.48 billion in Q4 and RMB 4.15 billion a year ago [22] - The take rate for the quarter reached 5.7%, up 2.2 percentage points year over year [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from credit-driven services was RMB 3.11 billion in Q1, up from RMB 2.89 billion in Q4 and RMB 3.02 billion a year ago [22] - Revenue from platform services was RMB 1.58 billion in Q1, slightly down from RMB 1.59 billion in Q4 but up from RMB 1.14 billion a year ago [23] - Loan facilitation and origination volume increased by 15.8% year over year [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company added 1,540,000 new credit line users in Q1, up 6% year over year, with new borrowers increasing approximately 41% year over year to 1,130,000 [12] - The delinquency rate after thirty-day collections (C:M2) remained stable at 0.6% [11][26] - The average internal rate of return (IRR) of loans originated was 21.4%, compared to 21.3% in the prior quarter [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on an AI plus credit strategy, aiming to build the industry's first AI agent platform to enhance core credit processes [8] - Plans to recruit an additional 100 algorithm engineers by the end of the year to accelerate transformation into an AI-native organization [8] - The company expects to maintain high-quality growth in its core loan facilitation business while empowering financial institutions through technology solutions [19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding the macroeconomic environment, noting early signs of recovery in China's economy [6][18] - The company plans to enhance operational efficiency and optimize capital allocation while maintaining a prudent approach to risk management [18][66] - The outlook for Q2 2025 includes expected non-GAAP net income between RMB 1.75 billion and RMB 1.85 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 24-31% [32] Other Important Information - The company issued RMB 6.6 billion in asset-backed securities (ABS) in Q1, a year-over-year increase of approximately 25% [12] - The effective tax rate for Q1 was 18%, higher than the typical rate of approximately 15% due to withholding tax provisions [28] - The company has initiated a share repurchase program, expecting total repurchases this year to be no less than USD 680 million [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of new loan facilitation rules and credit quality trends - Management indicated that new regulations are a positive signal for the industry, promoting orderly development and recognizing the value of leading loan facilitation platforms [36] - Asset quality remains stable, with the C2M2 ratio at 0.6%, significantly better than previous periods [39] Question: Asset quality indicators and credit demand trends - The increase in day one delinquency was attributed to changes in loan mix, with a higher percentage from embedded finance channels [44] - Credit demand has shown early signs of recovery, but macro uncertainties persist [47] Question: Impact of US-China trade tensions and potential delisting risk - The direct impact of tariffs on the business is limited, with only a small percentage of loan volume related to exports [50] - The company has a clear plan to address potential ADR delisting risks, including a secondary listing in Hong Kong [54] Question: Customer acquisition costs and strategies - The increase in customer acquisition costs was driven by a change in business mix, with a focus on efficiency rather than just cost [60] - The company plans to adjust acquisition strategies based on macro conditions and customer demand [62] Question: Loan demand trends and funding liquidity - Recent policy measures to boost consumption have positively impacted credit demand, and funding costs are expected to decrease slightly [66] - The company will maintain a prudent lending strategy while pursuing sustainable growth [67]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Non-GAAP net income increased by 59.9% year over year to RMB 1.93 billion, while non-GAAP EPADS on a fully diluted basis rose by 78.5% to RMB 13.5 [6] - Total revenue for Q1 was RMB 4.69 billion, compared to RMB 4.48 billion in Q4 and RMB 4.15 billion a year ago [20] - Non-GAAP net profit was RMB 1.93 billion in Q1 compared to RMB 1.97 billion in Q4 [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from credit-driven services was RMB 3.11 billion in Q1, up from RMB 2.89 billion in Q4 [20] - Revenue from platform services was RMB 1.58 billion in Q1, slightly down from RMB 1.59 billion in Q4 [21] - Loan volume from embedded finance channels grew by 36% year over year, while loan volume surged by roughly 106% [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company added 1,540,000 new credit line users in Q1, up 6% year over year [11] - Ninety-day delinquency rate was 2.02% in Q1, down from 2.09% in Q4 [23] - The overall ROA of embedded finance channels improved by 20% on a sequential basis [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is rolling out an AI plus credit strategy aimed at building the industry's first AI agent platform [7] - Plans to recruit an additional 100 algorithm engineers by the end of the year to accelerate transformation into an AI-native organization [7] - The company expects to maintain a low funding cost in the long run while adopting a prudent lending strategy [66] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains cautiously optimistic about the economy, supported by technological innovation and government measures to boost domestic demand [16] - The macroeconomic and policy landscape is showing signs of stabilization, which will provide a favorable environment for the consumer credit industry [16] - The company expects non-GAAP net income for Q2 to be between RMB 1.75 billion and RMB 1.85 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 24-31% [30] Other Important Information - The company issued RMB 6.6 billion in ABS, a year-over-year increase of approximately 25% [11] - The effective tax rate for Q1 was 18%, higher than the typical rate of approximately 15% due to withholding tax provisions [26] - The company has executed a share repurchase program with a total repurchase expected to be no less than USD 680 million this year [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of new loan facilitation rules and credit quality trends - Management views the new rules as a positive signal for the industry, promoting orderly development and recognizing the value of leading loan facilitation platforms [34] - Asset quality remains stable, with the C2M2 ratio at 0.6%, significantly better than previous periods [35][36] Question: Asset quality indicators and credit demand trends - The increase in day one delinquency was driven by a change in loan mix, with a higher percentage from embedded finance channels [42] - Credit demand has shown early signs of recovery, but macro uncertainties persist [37][45] Question: Assessment of tariff tensions and ADR delisting risk - The direct impact of tariffs on the business is limited, with only a small percentage of loan volume affected [48] - The company has a clear plan to respond to potential ADR delisting risks, including a secondary listing in Hong Kong [52][54] Question: Customer acquisition costs and strategy adjustments - The increase in customer acquisition cost was driven by a change in business mix, with a higher contribution from API channels [58] - The company will continue to monitor macro changes and adjust acquisition strategies accordingly [62] Question: Loan demand trends and funding liquidity - Recent government policies aimed at boosting consumption have positively impacted credit demand [65] - The company expects funding costs to decrease slightly from Q1 levels and plans to optimize its funding structure [66]