免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下 本报告中的信息或所表达的意见不构成我公司实际的投资结果，也不构成任何对投资人的投资建议。 债市继续维持中性，后续机会来自货币政策放松；A股有望迎来风险偏好修复，港股情况与A股类似。 原油中性。 海外方面，中美贸易谈判有所进展，美国9月通胀偏弱支持10月FOMC继续降息，全球风险偏好回升， 黄金大跌，海外股市普涨，油价反弹。 国内方面，三季度GDP同比较二季度的5.2%回落至4.8%，高于彭博一致预期的4.7%，平减指数降幅小 幅收窄，出口走强带动工业增加值回升，但投资及消费仍在低位，内外需分化加剧。A港股风险偏好修 复，股涨债跌，创业板与恒生科技领涨。 市场策略方面，债券方面，上周双降预期重启、赎回新规边际放松传闻利好债市，但风险偏好回升，债 市多空反复，利率偏弱震荡。随着三季度债市的持续调整，债基久期风险已逐步释放，同时基本面和资 金面依然利好债市。但四中全会公报赋予科技重要位置和中美谈判进展积极提振股市风偏，叠加四季度 银行抛券压力和赎回新规扰动，债市或将维持震荡运行，利率趋势性下行需等待新规发布等利空 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: October 13, 2025 - Analyst: Liang Weichao - SAC Registration Number: S1340523070001 - Email: liangweichao@cnpsec.com [1][2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The bond market is expected to move in a volatile manner in the fourth quarter. The 30 - 10 and 10 - 1 year Treasury yield spreads have reflected the risk preference repair, and the current bond market has allocation value. Supply pressure is expected to ease, there may be opportunities for monetary easing, and redemption pressure will persist. The bond market may alternate between repair and adjustment, with repair driven by allocation value and adjustment due to redemption pressure. If there is an opportunity for monetary easing, the emotional repair will accelerate, followed by faster unwinding and selling [3][10]. - After the holiday, liquidity enters the seasonal easing window at the beginning of the quarter. The marginal easing of the capital market has intensified, and the current capital price has fallen to the lowest level in the same period of history, with the central level dropping back to the policy rate. The continued decline in capital prices has promoted the warming of easing expectations and the repair of bond market sentiment [3][10]. - The short - end is in a high - allocation value range, and the long - short term spread has fully priced in the risk preference repair. The current pricing level is close to the historical average, so the long - short term spread is reasonably priced, which can control the risk of further upward movement of the long - end. The downward drive of the long - end depends on the decline of risk preference or the opportunity of monetary easing [3][12]. - Recently, the risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and bond market trading is "better to stop than to chase". The risk - aversion sentiment comes from international geopolitics with high uncertainty, the disturbance of redemption problems still exists during the market repair, and the yield is about to fall to the chip - intensive area. Therefore, although the bond market has recovered under the drive of risk - aversion sentiment, the yield is unlikely to return to the state of rapid decline, and chasing the rise requires caution [4][14]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Is it time to chase or stop the risk - aversion sentiment? - **Market Outlook**: The bond market in the fourth quarter may move in a volatile manner. The yield spreads have reflected risk preference repair, and the market has allocation value. Supply pressure may ease, there may be monetary easing opportunities, and redemption pressure will continue. The market may alternate between repair and adjustment [10]. - **Liquidity Analysis**: After the holiday, liquidity enters the seasonal easing window at the beginning of the quarter. The capital price has fallen to the lowest level in the same period of history, and the continued decline has promoted the warming of easing expectations and bond market sentiment. This is related to the calendar effect of funds and the central bank's liquidity management [10]. - **Short - end and Term Spread Analysis**: The short - end is in a high - allocation value range as the risk of capital tightening is low. The long - short term spread has fully priced in the risk preference repair, and the current pricing is close to the historical average, which can control the long - end upward risk. The long - end downward drive depends on risk preference decline or monetary easing [12]. - **Risk - aversion and Trading Advice**: The risk - aversion sentiment comes from international geopolitics with high uncertainty. The redemption problem still disturbs the market, and the yield is about to fall to the chip - intensive area. Bond market trading is "better to stop than to chase" [14][15].

Group 1 - The core outcome of the recent China-US economic talks in Spain is the establishment of a framework consensus on the TikTok issue, signaling a potential easing of economic relations between the two countries, which is expected to positively impact market sentiment in the short term [2][8]. - The discussions highlighted a pragmatic advancement in China-US economic negotiations, particularly regarding user data, content security, and intellectual property rights, indicating a willingness to seek consensus despite deep-seated differences [9][10]. - The expectation of improved China-US relations is likely to enhance risk appetite among investors, potentially benefiting Chinese stocks, especially in the internet and technology sectors, and stabilizing the offshore RMB [10][11]. Group 2 - The future implementation of the agreements reached during the talks is contingent upon subsequent communications between the leaders of China and the US, which could significantly influence market confidence and the overall investment climate [10][11]. - If the TikTok agreement is successfully implemented and leads to tariff adjustments and a potential state visit by the US president, it could catalyze a new phase of market activity, particularly benefiting technology growth sectors and export-oriented companies [13][14]. - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: event-driven rebounds in technology growth sectors, mid-term benefits for export chains and consumer leaders, and the anticipated policy and funding advantages for brokerage firms [13][14].

Group 1: US Market Overview - US economic data suppressed stock market gains, with S&P 500 down 0.29%, Dow Jones up 0.08%, and Nasdaq down 0.40% [1] - Semiconductor index dropped over 2% following Trump's announcement of potential semiconductor tariffs up to 300%, while Intel rose nearly 3% [1] - Clean energy tax credit regulations led to a significant increase in solar stocks, with Sunrun rising nearly 33% [1] Group 2: Consumer Confidence and Bond Yields - US consumer confidence data resulted in a two-week high for the 10-year Treasury yield [2] - Following retail sales data, the dollar's decline narrowed, but consumer confidence data later expanded the dollar's drop to a two-week low [2] Group 3: Commodity Market Trends - Gold experienced its first weekly decline in three weeks, with futures down over 3%, marking the largest weekly drop in three months [3] - Crude oil prices fell, with US oil dropping 2% and nearing a two-month low, marking two consecutive weeks of decline [3] Group 4: Domestic Developments - Hainan Province issued a three-year action plan for high-quality marine tourism development, focusing on a "low-altitude + marine" tourism model [6] - The launch of the OmniHand series by Zhiyuan Robotics, with prices starting below 10,000 yuan, indicates advancements in humanoid robotics [7][14] Group 5: A-Share Market Strategy - Analysts suggest that the second phase of the bull market has room for development, with market corrections presenting opportunities for investment [9] - The current A-share market aligns with the characteristics of the second phase of a bull market, with risk preferences recovering and capital inflows from other asset classes [9] Group 6: Sector Focus - The clean energy sector, particularly solar, is expected to benefit from new regulations and rising demand, with significant price increases observed in the supply chain [12] - The semiconductor industry is seeing increased domestic supply chain support, with a focus on self-sufficiency and market share growth [13] - The humanoid robotics sector is highlighted for its potential, with the OmniHand series being a key product in this space [14] Group 7: Company Announcements - Shengyi Electronics reported a net profit of 531 million yuan for the first half of the year, a 452.11% increase year-on-year [17] - Huahong Semiconductor is planning to acquire a controlling stake in Shanghai Huahong Microelectronics to resolve industry competition issues [18] - China Shenhua intends to acquire 13 core enterprises from the State Energy Group, with total assets exceeding 258.3 billion yuan [18]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing increased activity, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around 3500 points, while the bond market faces pressure from institutional fund withdrawals [1][2] - As of July 13, 15 bond funds have experienced significant redemptions since the beginning of July, prompting public fund institutions to announce an increase in the precision of fund share net value to eight decimal places [1][2] - The high proportion of institutional investors in the affected bond funds, with 13 out of 15 funds having over 97.8% held by institutions, is leading to substantial redemption pressure [2][4] Group 2 - The increase in net value precision by fund companies aims to accurately reflect the asset value of funds, especially after large redemptions, to mitigate the impact of net value calculation errors on remaining investors [3] - Industry experts suggest that the current wave of large redemptions in bond funds is a short-term behavior driven by a recovery in risk appetite, while bond funds still hold long-term allocation value [4] - Factors to assess liquidity risk in bond funds include the structure of fund holders, historical fluctuations in fund shares, and the types of bonds held, with a focus on the liquidity of government and financial bonds versus corporate or low-rated bonds [5]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations after a strong opening, with an average daily trading volume of approximately 1.35 trillion yuan [1] - Value stocks outperformed growth stocks, and small-cap stocks outperformed the broader market [1] - The defense, telecommunications, and power equipment sectors performed well, while real estate, electronics, and retail sectors lagged [1] Macroeconomic Outlook - The ongoing US-China trade negotiations are seen as constructive, with significant progress reported [2] - China's exports in April increased by 8.1% year-on-year, significantly above the expected 1.9% [2] - The impact of tariffs on domestic CPI is limited, with April's consumer prices down 0.1% year-on-year [3] - Industrial producer prices fell by 2.7% year-on-year, indicating pressure on corporate profits [3] Market Sentiment and Future Trends - The market is expected to remain volatile until substantial breakthroughs in tariffs, domestic policies, or A-share liquidity occur [5] - A rebound window may open if any of these factors show significant improvement [5] - The current environment is characterized by a recovery in risk appetite alongside weak fundamentals, favoring TMT sectors [5] Investment Strategy - A "value dividend + TMT theme" investment strategy is recommended, focusing on high-quality, high-dividend assets for stability [6] - The technology sector is anticipated to regain momentum, particularly in semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and robotics [6]