exchange at the big board today. It's MX celebrating small business Saturday tomorrow of course at the NASDAQ. It's e-commerce platform Shopify [music] celebrating Black Friday.Harley was on squawk today talking about some of these year- end trends. >> Look, I think that overall the the forecast look good for growth this year on on online shopping, on inperson shopping. The question is just who are the winners and losers like always when it comes to retail because There are promotions.There are tariffs. The ...

Core Insights - Shopify is currently processing 2.4 million sales per minute, with 23,000 change orders per minute and 17 million unique shoppers since midnight [3][4] - The top product categories include skincare, vitamins, supplements, and activewear, indicating a trend towards personal wellness and home-related products [4][5][6] - Discounts are prevalent, averaging between 10% to 30%, but consumers are prioritizing value over discounts, favoring brands they love [8][9] Sales Performance - Shopify accounted for approximately 12% of all US e-commerce sales [1] - Last year, Shopify generated $11.5 billion over the Black Friday weekend, up from $9.3 billion the year before [14] Consumer Behavior - A new entrepreneur makes their first sale on Shopify every 26 seconds, highlighting the platform's role in empowering small businesses [4] - Consumers are increasingly engaging with brands through multiple channels, including social media and physical stores, reflecting a shift towards an omnichannel retail experience [13] Market Trends - There is a notable shift in consumer spending towards home-related products compared to last year, which focused more on outdoor and adventure gear [6][7] - Traditional online retailers are expanding into physical stores, indicating a blending of online and offline retail strategies [10][11]

Core Insights - Proactive provides fast, accessible, and actionable business and finance news content to a global investment audience [2] - The company focuses on medium and small-cap markets while also covering blue-chip companies and broader investment stories [3] - Proactive's news team delivers insights across various sectors including biotech, mining, oil and gas, and emerging technologies [3] Technology Adoption - Proactive is committed to adopting technology to enhance workflows and content production [4] - The company utilizes automation and software tools, including generative AI, while ensuring all content is edited and authored by humans [5]

Core Insights - Shopify's accelerating GMV momentum is significantly boosting its Merchant Solutions, which is its largest revenue driver, with a 32% GMV increase indicating strong transaction growth [1][4] Merchant Solutions Performance - Merchant Solutions is thriving as Shopify Payments penetration reached 65% in Q3 2025, with Shop Pay also gaining traction among both small merchants and global brands [2] - The international GMV growth, particularly in Europe, is enhancing Shopify's global presence, supported by improved payment and fulfillment options [3][10] - Shopify's product innovation, including AI-powered tools and expanded logistics partnerships, is contributing to sustained GMV growth, with projections of 28.78% revenue growth in 2025 and 21.93% in 2026 [4] Competitive Landscape - Shopify is facing increasing competition from Commerce.com and Wix.com, both of which are rapidly advancing in the e-commerce sector [5][6] - Commerce.com is appealing to large brands with its enterprise-focused solutions and partnerships with major companies like PayPal and Microsoft [6] - Wix.com has transformed into a comprehensive e-commerce platform, enhancing its competitiveness through affordability and AI integrations [7] Stock Performance and Valuation - Shopify's stock has increased by 47.9% year-to-date, outperforming the broader technology sector but lagging behind the internet services industry, which has risen by 63.2% [8] - The stock is considered overvalued with a forward price/sales ratio of 14.76X compared to the sector's 6.61X, and it holds a Value Score of F [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings is $1.46 per share, indicating a 12.31% year-over-year growth [14]

Core Insights - The rise of AI is fundamentally transforming the e-commerce landscape, with platforms like OpenAI's ChatGPT and ByteDance's Doubao becoming new shopping interfaces, attracting significant user engagement [1][2][4]. Group 1: AI Integration in E-commerce - OpenAI has partnered with Shopify to enable shopping directly within the ChatGPT interface, marking a shift from traditional e-commerce browsing [2][3]. - Doubao, powered by ByteDance's Volcano Engine, has integrated shopping links to Douyin's marketplace, creating a closed-loop e-commerce ecosystem [4][5]. - Both ChatGPT and Doubao have substantial monthly active users, with ChatGPT exceeding 700 million and Doubao reaching 160 million [1][6]. Group 2: Impact on Traditional Search Engines - Traditional search engines like Google are experiencing a decline in usage as AI-driven platforms provide more direct and conversational shopping experiences [2][3]. - The shift from search-based results to AI-generated responses reduces the number of available ad placements, impacting revenue models for companies like Google and Baidu [3][8]. - Baidu is adapting by integrating AI capabilities into its search functions, with significant user growth for its Wenxin assistant [9][10]. Group 3: Future of Consumer Interaction - The future of consumer purchasing decisions may increasingly rely on AI models acting as personal shopping agents, capable of understanding user preferences and making recommendations [11]. - The integration of AI into e-commerce is expected to enhance user experience, making shopping more intuitive and personalized compared to traditional methods [8][11]. Group 4: Data Quality and Trust Issues - Concerns about data quality and the reliability of AI-generated information persist, as consumers may not fully trust AI recommendations [12][15]. - The effectiveness of AI in e-commerce will depend on the integration of high-quality private and public data to ensure accurate recommendations [15][16].

Core Insights - Shopify terminated fewer than 10 employees for faking sales projections to boost their commissions, leading to a significant discrepancy in expected versus actual sales [1][2][3] - The internal investigation revealed that the gap between promised sales and actual sales amounted to at least tens of millions of dollars [2] - Shopify's commission structure was exploited by the salespeople, which was based on projected annual sales of new merchants [3] Financial Performance - In Q3, Shopify processed approximately $29 billion in gross merchandise volume (GMV), reflecting a 67% year-over-year increase [3] - Payments penetration reached 65% of GMV during the same period [3] - Shopify Capital reported $1.73 billion in outstanding loans and merchant cash advances, up from $1.22 billion at the end of 2024, indicating a 42% increase in demand among merchants [4] Consumer Demand - Consumer demand remains resilient, as indicated by Shopify President Harley Finkelstein, who noted that shoppers continue to buy and return across various channels and categories [4] - The embedded nature of Shopify Capital allows merchants to access funds and repay them dynamically based on daily sales, with 91.9% of the loan portfolio current at the end of Q3, down from 93.7% at the end of the previous year [5]

Core Insights - Shopify Inc. is recognized as one of the 15 Best Long Term Stocks to Buy according to Reddit [1] - CIBC has raised its price target for Shopify to $200 from $185, maintaining an Outperform rating, citing conservative consensus estimates [2] - Shopify's Q3 2025 revenue reached $2.8 billion, a 31.5% increase year-over-year, exceeding analyst estimates by $80 million [3] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Shopify's free cash flow increased by 20% year-over-year, achieving an 18% margin [3] - Operating income rose by 21%, with a margin of 12% [3] - Gross margin slightly decreased due to a higher proportion of lower-margin merchant solutions revenue [3] Future Outlook - For Q4 2025, Shopify anticipates revenue growth in the mid-to-high 20% range year-over-year [4] - Projected operating expenses are expected to be 30–31% of revenue, with free cash flow margin slightly higher than in Q3 [4] Market Position - Shopify holds approximately 30% of the US e-commerce software market, compared to 23% for its main competitor, Wix [5] - The platform accounts for over 12% of total US e-commerce, including sales from major retailers like Amazon [5]

Group 1 - A coalition of 25 state attorneys general has requested Shopify to remove its hosting services from websites that are illegally selling vapes [1]

Core Insights - AppLovin and Shopify are projected to potentially surpass Palantir's current market value of $369 billion within three years, driven by strong growth in earnings and innovative technologies [1] AppLovin - AppLovin specializes in adtech software utilizing advanced artificial intelligence models, primarily generating revenue from mobile games and recently launching an e-commerce advertising platform that achieved a billion-dollar revenue run rate shortly after its introduction [2] - The company has introduced a self-service dashboard that enhances automation and client onboarding, with expectations of unlocking significant opportunities globally [3] - AppLovin's Axon recommendation engine, which utilizes machine learning, has led to a fourfold increase in ad spend since its launch in mid-2023, and analysts regard it as a top-tier machine learning ad engine [3] - Wall Street anticipates AppLovin's earnings to grow at an annual rate of 53% over the next three years, potentially increasing its market value by 110% to $370 billion while reducing its valuation to 39 times earnings [3][4] Shopify - Shopify offers a comprehensive solution for omnichannel commerce, enabling merchants to manage their operations across various channels from a single platform, including essential services like payment processing and logistics [5][6] - The company has been recognized as a leader in e-commerce and wholesale commerce solutions, securing a strong market position through its user-friendly approach [6] - Shopify employs artificial intelligence in various capacities, including conversational shopping interfaces, workflow automation for merchants, and enhancing developer productivity [7] - Wall Street projects Shopify's earnings to grow at an annual rate of 32% over the next three years, which could lead to a 93% increase in its market value to $370 billion, while its valuation would adjust to 90 times earnings [8] Comparative Analysis - AppLovin is viewed as having a better chance of exceeding Palantir's market value due to its more favorable valuation, while Shopify has a history of exceeding earnings estimates and could capitalize on opportunities in larger enterprises and international markets [9]

Group 1: Company Overview - Shopify is an e-commerce giant that provides backroom infrastructure for online retailers, enabling them to operate and succeed in the market [2] - The company is best known for its complete website development services offered on a monthly subscription basis, allowing small businesses to quickly establish an online presence [3] - Shopify generates the majority of its revenue from payment processing fees charged on purchases made through its platform [4] Group 2: Market Position and Competition - Shopify holds a dominant position in the U.S. e-commerce software market with a 30% market share, significantly ahead of its main competitor, Wix, which has about 23% [5] - The company faces stronger competition internationally from platforms like WooCommerce and SquareSpace, and is actively expanding its offerings in global markets [6] - As Shopify evolves into a total commerce company, it competes with established players like PayPal and Block's Square business [6][7] Group 3: Financial Performance - Shopify has experienced rapid growth, with a 32% year-over-year increase in revenue in the third quarter, and a 25% increase in operating income [8] - The company's free cash flow rose by 20%, achieving an 18% margin, following recent cost-cutting measures [8]