法巴银行：将闪迪(SNDK.O)目标股价从230美元上调至450美元。 本文源自：金融界AI电报 ...

半导体、存储板块盘初迅速转跌，闪迪跌超5%，西部数据、镁光科技跌超2%，英特尔跌超1%。 | 美光科技(MICRON TE | 378.395 | -2.75% | | --- | --- | --- | | US MU | | | | 英特尔(INTEL) | 53.470 | -1.44% | | US INTC | | | | 闪迪 | 474.003 | -5.44% | | US SNDK | | | | 西部数据(WESTERN | 236.180 | -2.36% | | US WDC | | | 1月22日，美股三大指数集体高开，截至发稿，道指涨0.95%，纳指涨0.94%，标普500指数涨0.73%。 中概股多数上涨，阿里巴巴涨超5%。此前，市场消息称，阿里巴巴集团已决定支持旗下芯片公司平头 哥未来独立上市，阿里方面对此消息未作评论。此外，理想汽车、哔哩哔哩涨逾3%，小鹏汽车跌超 2%。 编辑｜钉钉 ...

Sandisk stock price continued its remarkable bull run this week, reaching a record high of $501. SNDK has jumped by over 100% this year, making it the best-performing company in the S&P 500 Index. ...

Core Viewpoint - Sandisk is emerging as a top-performing stock in 2025, with a year-to-date increase of over 100%, significantly outperforming larger competitors like Nvidia and Microsoft [1][3][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Sandisk's stock price has risen from $275.25 on January 2 to $501.29, marking a year-to-date increase of 105.15% [1][3]. - In comparison, Nvidia's stock is down 3% and Microsoft's is down 6% over the same period [3]. Group 2: Company Developments - The company's impressive growth is attributed to its separation from Western Digital in early 2025, which previously acquired Sandisk in 2016 [4]. - Following the spin-off, Sandisk has gained strong investor interest due to its products being utilized in consumer electronics and edge computing applications [4]. Group 3: Future Growth Potential - Management believes that data centers will be the next major long-term growth engine, with significant investments in AI infrastructure expected to exceed $1 trillion by 2030 [5][6]. - Sandisk reported Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue of $2.3 billion, a 23% year-over-year increase, although net income was $112 million, down from $211 million a year earlier [7]. - The company is collaborating with five major hyperscale customers to enhance its data center presence, positioning itself to benefit from the growing demand for AI-driven storage solutions [8]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The upcoming earnings report scheduled for January 26 is anticipated to be a significant indicator of future performance, with potential to further boost the stock if results are strong [9].

划重点 ① 存储芯片正从普通的大宗商品跃升为 AI 算力的核心燃料。HBM 的"产能黑洞"效应掠夺传统 DRAM 产能，导致全球供应结构性失控；推理时代的爆发 唤醒了企业级 SSD 的长期需求。存储厂商正凭借物理资源的稀缺性，强力夺回产业链的最高定价权。 AI 算力"燃料化"——本轮存储牛市的核心催化剂 ② 本轮超级周期中，存储标的正加速分化。美光（MU）凭借 1-gamma 制程与本土红利，成为打破毛利天花板的压舱石；独立后的闪迪（SNDK）剥离束 缚，以极高的利润弹性收割企业级 SSD 溢价；而西部数据（WDC）则通过 HAMR 黑科技守住冷数据护城河。 ③ 四个催化剂正封死存储价格的下跌空间：端侧 AI 带来的手机/电脑内存翻倍需求、以技术迭代为核心的新资本支出常态、终端巨头从压价转向抢货的 权力反转，以及地缘政治对"价格战"的终结。2026 年，存储已异变为战略物资，在产能大规模兑现前，每次回调都是珍贵的上车机会。 在美股市场的历史长河中，存储芯片（Memory）曾是半导体领域最普通的"大宗商品"。它伴随着冷酷的周期波动，在繁荣期疯狂扩产，在衰退期血流成 河。 然而，过去一年，四大存储巨头——SNDK ...

在刚刚过去的2025年，存储芯片股票以及存储类高端产品股票毋庸置疑是全球股票市场最火热的投资主题之一，在 2026年开年同样如此——比如数据中心企业级SSD存储组件领军者闪迪(SNDK.US)2026年以来累计涨幅已经超过 110%，闪迪2025年全年涨幅更是高达580%。即便经历了涨势如虹般的2025年超级牛市轨迹，以及牛市势头仍在延续 的2026年开年，全球投资者们并未为这些存储类科技公司突然走高的估值而感到过度紧张，因为他们相信前所未有的 人工智能数据中心建设狂潮正在改变存储芯片领域的"强周期性本质"。 尽管自2024年末期以来，闪迪(SNDK.US)、西部数据公司(WDC.US)、希捷(STX.US)以及美光科技(MU.US)俨然已成 为标普500指数中表现最好的成分股票，投资者们仍继续将它们视为极其有吸引力的股票配置对象。而且，尽管从过 往股价与估值比较角度来看它们可能显得愈发昂贵，但AI投资主题的近乎"无期限信仰性质"正在让这些历史比较变得 无关紧要。 在近一年的存储类股票牛市行情中，除了SK海力士、三星以及美光这三大存储芯片原厂股价大涨，希捷、闪迪和西 部数据的2025年股价涨幅均超过200%， ...

Core Insights - Storage chips are transitioning from a commodity to a core fuel for AI computing, with HBM's "capacity black hole" effect disrupting traditional DRAM supply and increasing demand for enterprise SSDs [3][5][8] - The current supercycle in storage is leading to accelerated differentiation among key players, with Micron (MU) leveraging 1-gamma technology, SanDisk (SNDK) benefiting from high profit elasticity, and Western Digital (WDC) maintaining its position through HAMR technology [3][5][13] - Four catalysts are preventing a decline in storage prices: increased memory demand from AI, a new capital expenditure norm focused on technology upgrades, a shift in power dynamics favoring storage manufacturers, and geopolitical factors ending price wars [3][28][32] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Storage chips have historically been viewed as a commodity, but this perception is changing as they become essential for AI, breaking traditional cyclical valuation patterns [5][8] - HBM is critical for AI performance, consuming DRAM capacity at a rate of 1:3, meaning that as production shifts to HBM, traditional memory supply will significantly decrease [9][10] - The demand for enterprise SSDs is expected to rise as AI applications evolve, with significant increases in data storage needs [11][12] Group 2: Key Players Analysis - Micron (MU) is positioned as the only pure-play DRAM manufacturer in the U.S., benefiting from technological advancements and local incentives, with expectations for EPS to rise due to increased HBM production [17][19] - SanDisk (SNDK), now independent, is recognized for its high sensitivity to enterprise SSD pricing, showing significant stock price increases post-split [20][21] - Western Digital (WDC) is seen as an undervalued player in cold data storage, leveraging its HAMR technology to maintain a competitive edge in HDD markets [22][24] Group 3: Future Outlook - The storage market is expected to enter a phase driven by structural demand changes rather than supply-side reductions, with significant growth anticipated in the next 6-12 months [27][28] - Key catalysts for continued strength in the storage sector include increased AI-driven demand, a shift in capital expenditure focus, changing power dynamics in pricing, and geopolitical stability [28][30][32] - Investment strategies for 2026 suggest a focus on Micron as a core holding, SanDisk for high-growth potential, and Western Digital for defensive stability [33][35][36]

Group 1: Company Overview - Sandisk is a semiconductor company specializing in data storage solutions based on NAND flash memory for edge devices and data centers, with a significant joint venture with Kioxia for cost efficiencies and supply chain security [3] - The company has a vertically integrated business model, allowing it to manufacture, package, and integrate memory chips into final products, optimizing performance and reliability [2] Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Outlook - Sandisk's non-GAAP earnings fell 33% in the first quarter, but adjusted earnings are expected to increase by 160% in the second quarter due to a supply shortage in memory chips driven by AI demand [1] - Wall Street estimates that Sandisk's adjusted earnings will grow at an annual rate of 259% through the fiscal year ending in June 2027, which could justify its current valuation of 170 times earnings [7] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Risks - The memory chip industry is cyclical, and the current supply constraints may indicate that the market is nearing a peak, which could lead to a loss of pricing power for Sandisk once supply outpaces demand [8][6] - The stock has advanced 1,050% since being spun off from Western Digital in February 2025, reflecting the impact of the supply shortage in memory chips [5]

Core Viewpoint - The global storage prices have accelerated in Q3 and Q4 of 2025, with expectations for Q1 2026 prices to exceed forecasts due to tight supply and increasing AI demand outpacing capacity expansion [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - AI storage is driving increased demand, necessitating an optimized multi-tier storage system to accommodate the rapidly growing KV cache space [1] - The supply of DRAM is expected to grow slower than demand, with major manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix projecting production increases of 5% and 8% respectively for 2026, but still falling short of market needs [3] - NAND supply is becoming more concentrated in enterprise-level products, with expected production cuts from major players like Samsung and SK Hynix due to prioritization of DRAM profitability [3] Group 2: Price Trends - In Q1 2026, DRAM prices are projected to increase by 55%-60% quarter-on-quarter, driven by a shift in production capacity towards server and HBM applications [4] - NAND prices are expected to rise by 33%-38% in the same period, influenced by supply constraints and the prioritization of server demands [4] - Major NAND manufacturers are implementing long-term contracts with significant price increases, with some contracts seeing nearly double the previous prices [4] Group 3: Company Performance - Major global storage companies are set to release strong earnings forecasts, with Samsung predicting a revenue increase of 23% year-on-year for Q4 2025 [5] - Biwei Storage anticipates a revenue increase of 165% year-on-year for Q4 2025, while Nanya Technology expects record revenue and significant profit growth [5] - The upcoming earnings reports from major players like Hynix, Samsung, and Western Digital are expected to positively impact the overall market [7] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The focus should be on storage manufacturers, storage module/chip companies, and storage testing/packaging sectors due to the ongoing price increases and demand growth [7] - Potential opportunities in storage control chips and interface chips should be monitored as the market evolves [7] - Key investment targets include major global storage companies, module manufacturers, niche storage firms, and testing/packaging service providers [8][9]

Group 1 - Oil stocks generally rose, with CNOOC (02883) up 4.32%, PetroChina (00857) up 3.33%, CNOOC (00883) up 2.98%, and Sinopec (00386) up 3.01%. International oil prices saw a slight increase, with WTI crude oil futures for February closing at $60.62 per barrel, up 0.43%, and Brent crude oil futures for March at $65.24 per barrel, up 0.49% [1] - CATL (03750) fell over 4%, down 4.4% as of the report. A report from Citi raised concerns about CATL's growth prospects due to slowing EV sales in China, rising lithium prices, and reduced export VAT rebates [1] - Kintor Pharmaceutical (02171) rose nearly 4% after announcing a clinical collaboration with Dispatch Bio to initiate a Phase I clinical trial in China by 2026 for a treatment method targeting solid tumors [1] Group 2 - Guoxia Technology (02655) surged over 7% following a strategic cooperation agreement with Shuneng Electric to enhance collaboration in the energy storage sector [2] - Kingsoft Biotech (01548) dropped over 6% after its affiliate Legend Biotech's stock fell more than 11%. Kingsoft reported that Legend's CARVYKTI had a net sales of approximately $555 million for Q4 [2] - Hong Kong real estate stocks saw a general rise, with Hysan Development (00014) up 5.17%, Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016) up 3.36%, and Wharf Real Estate (01997) up 4.02%. A report from Citi indicated a recovery in Hong Kong property prices, predicting a continued upward trend, albeit at a moderate pace due to tempered interest rate cut expectations [2] Group 3 - Baidu Group (09888) rose nearly 5%, with a cumulative increase of over 40% in the past two months. The company launched the official version of its Wenxin large model 5.0, featuring 2.4 trillion parameters [3] - Pacific Basin Shipping (02343) increased over 9%, reaching a new high of HKD 2.96, benefiting from a rise in the Baltic Dry Index, which increased by 74 points or 4.3% to 1803 points [3] - GDS Holdings (09698) rose nearly 3% after announcing the sale of shares in DayOne for $385 million, recovering approximately 95% of its investment principal with a return rate close to 6.5 times [4] Group 4 - The US stock market saw an expansion in gains, with the Nasdaq up 1%. Notable tech stocks like Intel (INTC.US) rose 11.72%, reaching a market cap of over $250 billion, the highest in four years [5] - The storage sector continued to strengthen, with Micron Technology (MU.US) up 6.61% and Western Digital (WDC.US) up 8.49%. Counterpoint Research indicated that the storage market has entered a "super bull market" phase, surpassing previous highs due to increased demand from AI and server capacity [5] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index surged 2%, with popular Chinese stocks like Bilibili (BILI.US) up 5.65% and Baidu (BIDU.US) up 8.17% [6]