Here's our initial take on Upstart's (UPST -5.08%) fourth-quarter results.Key MetricsMetricQ4 FY23Q4 FY24Changevs. ExpectationsRevenue$140 million$219 million+56%BeatGAAP earnings per share (loss)($0.50)($0.03)n/aBeatAdjusted EBITDA$0.6 million$38.8 million+6,164%n/aUnit loan transaction volume129,664245,663+90%n/aDemand for loans is bouncing back, and the Upstart profit flywheel is ramping upUpstart's business has whipsawed around the past few years as strong initial demand in a low-interest rate environme ...

Q4 and Full Year 2024 Earnings February 11, 2025 Disclaimer This presentation contains "forward-looking" statements that are based on our management's beliefs and assumptions and on information currently available to management. Forward-looking statements include all statements, other than statements of historical fact contained in this presentation, including but not limited to, information or predictions concerning our future financial performance, including our financial outlook for Q1 2025 and the full ...

[Financial Highlights](index=1&type=section&id=Financial%20Highlights) Summarizes Upstart's financial performance for Q4 and full fiscal year 2024, showcasing significant growth and improved profitability [Fourth Quarter 2024 Financial Highlights](index=1&type=section&id=Fourth%20Quarter%202024%20Financial%20Highlights) Upstart achieved significant Q4 2024 growth with 56% revenue increase, positive Adjusted EBITDA, and near GAAP profitability - The CEO highlighted **dramatic growth** across all product categories and a return to **Adjusted EBITDA levels** not seen since Q1 2022, nearly achieving **GAAP profitability**[3](index=3&type=chunk) Q4 2024 Key Financial Metrics | Metric | Q4 2024 | Q4 2023 | YoY Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total Revenue | $219 million | $140.3 million | +56% | | Total Fee Revenue | $199 million | $152.8 million | +30% | | GAAP Net Loss | ($2.8) million | ($42.4) million | Improved | | Adjusted Net Income | $29.9 million | ($9.7) million | Improved | | GAAP Diluted EPS | ($0.03) | ($0.50) | Improved | | Adjusted Diluted EPS | $0.26 | ($0.11) | Improved | | Adjusted EBITDA | $38.8 million | $0.6 million | +6367% | | Contribution Profit | $122 million | $95.6 million | +28% | Q4 2024 Key Operating Metrics | Metric | Q4 2024 | Q4 2023 | YoY Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Transaction Volume, Dollars | $2.1 billion | $1.25 billion | +68% | | Transaction Volume, Number of Loans | 245,663 | 129,664 | +89% | | Conversion Rate | 19.3% | 11.6% | +7.7 p.p. | [Fiscal Year 2024 Financial Highlights](index=1&type=section&id=Fiscal%20Year%202024%20Financial%20Highlights) Upstart's FY 2024 total revenue grew 24%, significantly reducing GAAP net loss and achieving positive Adjusted EBITDA Full Year 2024 Key Financial Metrics | Metric | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | YoY Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total Revenue | $637 million | $513.6 million | +24% | | Total Fee Revenue | $635 million | $560.4 million | +13% | | GAAP Net Loss | ($129) million | ($240) million | Improved | | Adjusted Net Loss | ($17.8) million | ($46.9) million | Improved | | GAAP Diluted EPS | ($1.44) | ($2.87) | Improved | | Adjusted Diluted EPS | ($0.20) | ($0.56) | Improved | | Adjusted EBITDA | $10.6 million | ($17.2) million | Improved | | Contribution Profit | $382 million | $353.3 million | +8% | Full Year 2024 Key Operating Metrics | Metric | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | YoY Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Transaction Volume, Dollars | $5.9 billion | $4.6 billion | +28% | | Transaction Volume, Number of Loans | 697,092 | 437,659 | +59% | | Conversion Rate | 16.5% | 9.7% | +6.8 p.p. | [Financial Outlook](index=2&type=section&id=Financial%20Outlook) Provides Upstart's financial projections for Q1 and the full fiscal year 2025, including revenue and profitability targets [First Quarter 2025 Outlook](index=2&type=section&id=First%20Quarter%202025%20Outlook) Upstart projects Q1 2025 revenue of approximately $200 million, anticipating an Adjusted Net Income of $16 million Q1 2025 Financial Outlook | Metric | Expected Value | | :--- | :--- | | Revenue | ~$200 million | | Revenue From Fees | ~$185 million | | Contribution Margin | ~57% | | GAAP Net Income (Loss) | ~($20) million | | Adjusted Net Income (Loss) | ~$16 million | | Adjusted EBITDA | ~$27 million | [Full Year 2025 Outlook](index=3&type=section&id=Full%20Year%202025%20Outlook) Upstart targets approximately $1 billion in FY 2025 revenue, aiming for an 18% Adjusted EBITDA Margin and GAAP net income breakeven Full Year 2025 Financial Outlook | Metric | Expected Value | | :--- | :--- | | Revenue | ~$1 billion | | Revenue From Fees | ~$920 million | | Adjusted EBITDA Margin | ~18% | | GAAP Net Income | At least breakeven | [Corporate Information and Definitions](index=3&type=section&id=Corporate%20Information%20and%20Definitions) Details corporate announcements and defines key operating and non-GAAP financial metrics used for business evaluation [Corporate Announcements](index=3&type=section&id=Corporate%20Announcements) Upstart will host an "Upstart AI Day" on May 14, 2025, in New York City to discuss its technology and strategy - Upstart will host an **"Upstart AI Day"** on **May 14, 2025**, in New York City for leadership to discuss the company's **technology, business model, and strategy**[8](index=8&type=chunk) [Key Operating Metrics and Non-GAAP Measures](index=5&type=section&id=Key%20Operating%20Metrics%20and%20Non-GAAP%20Measures) Upstart uses transaction volume and conversion rate as key operating metrics, alongside non-GAAP measures for core performance evaluation - **Transaction volume**, measured in dollars and number of loans, is used as a proxy for the company's **overall scale and platform reach**[17](index=17&type=chunk)[18](index=18&type=chunk) - **Conversion rate**, which is the number of loans divided by legitimate rate inquiries, is tracked to understand the **efficiency of the borrower funnel**[19](index=19&type=chunk) - **Non-GAAP measures** are used to **supplement GAAP results** for evaluating operating performance, planning, and forecasting, by excluding items like stock-based compensation to **enhance comparability**[21](index=21&type=chunk)[22](index=22&type=chunk) [Consolidated Financial Statements](index=8&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Financial%20Statements) Presents Upstart's consolidated balance sheets, statements of operations, and cash flows for the reported periods [Consolidated Balance Sheets](index=8&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Balance%20Sheets) Upstart's total assets increased to $2.37 billion by Dec 31, 2024, driven by higher cash and borrowings Balance Sheet Summary (in thousands) | Account | Dec 31, 2024 | Dec 31, 2023 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Cash and cash equivalents | $788,422 | $368,405 | | Loans (at fair value) | $806,304 | $1,156,413 | | **Total Assets** | **$2,366,958** | **$2,017,100** | | Borrowings | $1,402,168 | $1,040,424 | | **Total Liabilities** | **$1,733,740** | **$1,381,795** | | **Total Stockholders' Equity** | **$633,218** | **$635,305** | [Consolidated Statements of Operations](index=10&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Operations) Upstart's FY 2024 total revenue increased 24% to $636.5 million, significantly narrowing its net loss Statement of Operations Summary (in thousands) | Account | Year Ended Dec 31, 2024 | Year Ended Dec 31, 2023 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Revenue from fees, net | $635,466 | $560,431 | | **Total Revenue** | **$636,528** | **$513,562** | | Total operating expenses | $809,384 | $770,087 | | **Loss from operations** | **($172,856)** | **($256,525)** | | **Net loss** | **($128,581)** | **($240,132)** | | Net loss per share, diluted | ($1.44) | ($2.87) | - For the full year 2024, **Platform and referral fees grew** to $502.4 million from $414.1 million in 2023, while **Servicing and other fees decreased** to $133.1 million from $146.3 million[30](index=30&type=chunk) [Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows](index=12&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Cash%20Flows) Upstart generated $186.3 million in operating cash flow in 2024, significantly increasing its year-end cash balance Cash Flow Summary (in thousands) | Activity | Year Ended Dec 31, 2024 | Year Ended Dec 31, 2023 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net cash provided by (used in) operating activities | $186,331 | ($111,712) | | Net cash used in investing activities | ($237,726) | ($118,455) | | Net cash provided by financing activities | $559,871 | $165,487 | | **Change in cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash** | **$508,476** | **($64,680)** | | **Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash at end of year** | **$976,263** | **$467,787** | [Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP Financial Measures](index=15&type=section&id=Reconciliation%20of%20GAAP%20to%20Non-GAAP%20Financial%20Measures) Provides detailed reconciliations of GAAP financial results to non-GAAP measures like Contribution Profit, Adjusted EBITDA, and Adjusted Net Income [Contribution Profit Reconciliation](index=15&type=section&id=Contribution%20Profit%20Reconciliation) Contribution Profit increased to $381.5 million in FY 2024, with Q4 2024 reaching $121.9 million Contribution Profit Reconciliation (in thousands) | Period | Revenue from fees, net | Contribution Profit | Contribution Margin | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Q4 2024** | **$199,276** | **$121,898** | **61%** | | Q4 2023 | $152,846 | $95,595 | 63% | | **FY 2024** | **$635,466** | **$381,533** | **60%** | | FY 2023 | $560,431 | $353,294 | 63% | [Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation](index=16&type=section&id=Adjusted%20EBITDA%20Reconciliation) Adjusted EBITDA turned positive in FY 2024 at $10.6 million, with Q4 2024 reaching $38.8 million Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation (in thousands) | Period | Net Loss | Adjusted EBITDA | Adjusted EBITDA Margin | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Q4 2024** | **($2,755)** | **$38,775** | **18%** | | Q4 2023 | ($42,398) | $619 | 0% | | **FY 2024** | **($128,581)** | **$10,594** | **2%** | | FY 2023 | ($240,132) | ($17,217) | -3% | [Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Reconciliation](index=17&type=section&id=Adjusted%20Net%20Income%20%28Loss%29%20Reconciliation) Adjusted Net Loss significantly reduced to $17.8 million in FY 2024, with Q4 2024 achieving a positive Adjusted Net Income of $29.9 million Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Reconciliation (in thousands, except per share data) | Period | Net Loss | Adjusted Net Income (Loss) | Adjusted Diluted EPS | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Q4 2024** | **($2,755)** | **$29,935** | **$0.26** | | Q4 2023 | ($42,398) | ($9,726) | ($0.11) | | **FY 2024** | **($128,581)** | **($17,834)** | **($0.20)** | | FY 2023 | ($240,132) | ($46,933) | ($0.56) |

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment positions of Parkev Tatevosian, CFA, and mentions that The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Upstart [1] Company Insights - The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy regarding its investment positions [1] - Parkev Tatevosian is affiliated with The Motley Fool and may receive compensation for promoting its services [1]

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) closed the latest trading day at $65.14, indicating a +0.25% change from the previous session's end. The stock trailed the S&P 500, which registered a daily gain of 0.36%. Elsewhere, the Dow saw a downswing of 0.28%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq appreciated by 0.51%.Shares of the company witnessed a gain of 9.73% over the previous month, beating the performance of the Finance sector with its gain of 5.23% and the S&P 500's gain of 2.11%.The upcoming earnings release of Upstart H ...

Group 1 - The upcoming report from Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) is expected to show a quarterly loss of $0.05 per share, which is an increase of 54.6% compared to the same period last year [1] - Analysts forecast revenues of $180.06 million for the quarter, representing a year-over-year increase of 28.3% [1] - There has been no revision in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter over the last 30 days, indicating analysts' collective reconsideration of their initial forecasts [1] Group 2 - The consensus among analysts is that 'Revenue- Revenue from fees, net' will reach $185.02 million, indicating a change of +21.1% from the prior-year quarter [4] - The estimated 'Revenue- Revenue from fees, net- Platform and referral fees, net' is projected to be $148.48 million, suggesting a year-over-year change of +25.6% [4] - 'Revenue- Revenue from fees, net- Servicing and other fees, net' is expected to come in at $35.52 million, indicating a change of +2.7% from the prior-year quarter [5] Group 3 - The estimated 'Transaction Volume' is projected to arrive at $1.66 million, compared to the year-ago figure of $1.25 million [5] - Upstart shares have increased by +9.7% in the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +2.1% move [5] - With a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), UPST is expected to closely follow the overall market performance in the near term [5]

Core Viewpoint - Upstart Holdings (UPST) is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2024 results on February 11, with anticipated revenues of approximately $185 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 28.3% [1][2]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is currently at $180.1 million, while the consensus for earnings is a loss of 5 cents per share, which is an improvement from the previous year's loss of 11 cents [2]. - Upstart has consistently beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 39.7% [3]. Earnings Expectations - Upstart carries a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) and has an Earnings ESP of -20.00%, indicating that the model does not predict an earnings beat this time [4][5]. Strategic Developments - The company's fourth-quarter performance is likely to benefit from its strategy as a multiproduct company, including innovative product launches and features aimed at improving data-driven decisions among lenders [6]. - Upstart's expertise in unsecured loans has contributed to customer base growth, particularly as traditional banks remain cautious amid macroeconomic uncertainties [7]. - The company has been automating the unsecured loan process and forming partnerships with various banks and credit unions, which may positively impact its performance [8]. Cost Management - In response to macroeconomic headwinds, Upstart is reducing its workforce to cut costs, which may help mitigate the effects of high inflation on transaction volumes [9]. Market Conditions - The weakening lending market, driven by elevated consumer risk and global geopolitical tensions, may negatively impact Upstart's revenues [10]. Stock Performance - Upstart shares have increased by 100.4% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Financial – Miscellaneous Services industry's growth of 25.9% and the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) ETF's gain of 32.1% [11]. - The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 7.51X, significantly higher than the industry's 2.93X, indicating a stretched valuation [13]. Investment Outlook - Upstart's business model benefits from a low-interest-rate environment, utilizing AI for faster loan approvals, making it an attractive alternative to traditional lenders [16]. - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts in 2024 are expected to stimulate loan demand and revenue growth, reversing some previous losses [17]. - The company is diversifying its funding sources and expanding its loan offerings, which may support future growth [18]. - Despite positive growth prospects, the high valuation makes the stock vulnerable to short-term volatility, leading to a recommendation to hold the stock for now [19].

Group 1 - Upstart Holdings, Inc. closed at $63.30, with a slight increase of +0.21% from the previous trading session, underperforming the S&P 500 which gained 0.72% [1] - Over the past month, shares of Upstart Holdings, Inc. have decreased by 0.55%, while the Finance sector and S&P 500 gained 3.24% and 1.02% respectively [1] - The upcoming earnings report is scheduled for February 11, 2025, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.05, indicating a 54.55% increase year-over-year, and a revenue estimate of $180.06 million, reflecting a 28.33% rise from the same quarter last year [2] Group 2 - Recent changes in analyst estimates for Upstart Holdings, Inc. are important as they reflect the shifting dynamics of short-term business patterns, with positive changes indicating analyst optimism [3] - The Zacks Rank system, which assesses estimate changes, has a proven track record of outperformance, with 1 stocks returning an average of +25% annually since 1988 [5] - Upstart Holdings, Inc. currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate remaining unchanged over the past month [5] Group 3 - Upstart Holdings, Inc. is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 94.28, significantly higher than the industry average Forward P/E of 10.04, suggesting it is trading at a premium [6] - The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, part of the Finance sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 74, placing it in the top 30% of over 250 industries [6] - The Zacks Industry Rank indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) reports results for the quarter ended December 2024. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on ...

The online lending marketplace still has a bright future.Upstart's (UPST -3.82%) stock more than doubled over the past 12 months. The online lending marketplace, which had fallen out of favor as interest rates rose in 2022 and 2023, became more attractive as the Federal Reserve finally reined in rates again.But even after that impressive rally, Upstart's stock still trades more than 80% below its all-time high from October 2021. Let's check out four reasons it's worth accumulating before it posts its fourth ...