Market Overview - Mid cap growth equities experienced modest gains in Q3, with the Russell Midcap Growth Index returning 2.8%, lagging behind the Russell Midcap Value Index at 6.2% and the Russell Midcap Index at 5.3% [3] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's rate cut in September contributed to easing monetary policy, benefiting rate-sensitive sectors and renewing interest in cyclical and innovation-led areas [3] Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment improved due to the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill and progress on trade agreements, reducing policy uncertainty and enabling companies to execute delayed strategic decisions [4] - Earnings estimates stabilized, particularly in technology and AI-related sectors, despite ongoing challenges in non-residential construction and discretionary segments [4] Portfolio Performance - The ClearBridge Mid Cap Growth Strategy outperformed its benchmark in Q3, driven by stock selection in IT, consumer staples, and healthcare sectors, while consumer discretionary and financials sectors slightly detracted from performance [5] Sector Contributions - In the IT sector, AppLovin (APP) and Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) were standout performers, with AppLovin benefiting from strong earnings and optimism around its e-commerce business [6] - Consumer staples saw positive contributions from Performance Food Group (PFGC) and Casey's General Stores (CASY), both benefiting from strong operational performance [7] - The consumer discretionary sector faced challenges, particularly with Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) and Wingstop (WING) experiencing declines due to competitive pressures and softer spending trends [8] - Financials sector was a modest drag on performance, with Tradeweb Markets (TW) and Corpay facing challenges from macro volatility and company-specific issues [9] Portfolio Positioning - New positions were initiated in Roblox, benefiting from improved growth dynamics and advertising opportunities, and APi Group, which is well-positioned in safety and industrial services [10][11] - Exited position in Deckers Outdoor (DECK) due to increasing competitive pressures in the sneaker market [12] Outlook - Leadership within mid growth stocks remains selective, with a few companies rewarded for differentiated technology and strong pipelines, while others struggle with demand and competition [13] - Focus remains on identifying businesses with secular growth drivers across technology, healthcare, and industrials sectors [14] - Near-term market uncertainty is expected to persist, but the strategy is positioned to benefit from companies sustaining durable growth in earnings and cash flow [15] Portfolio Highlights - The ClearBridge Mid Cap Growth Strategy had positive contributions across seven of the 11 sectors, with IT and healthcare being the leading contributors [16] - Stock selection in IT, consumer staples, healthcare, and energy sectors contributed positively, while consumer discretionary and financials sectors weighed on performance [17] - Individual stock contributions included AppLovin, United Rentals (URI), and Performance Food, while detractors included Chipotle Mexican Grill and Tradeweb Markets [18]

Core Insights - United Rentals, Inc. (URI) is a leading equipment rental company with a market capitalization of $63.1 billion, providing a wide range of equipment and services across various sectors [1] - The company is expected to report Q3 earnings soon, with analysts predicting a profit of $12.43 per share, reflecting a 5.3% increase from the previous year's $11.80 per share [2] Financial Performance - For fiscal 2025, analysts anticipate an EPS of $43.92, which is a 1.7% increase from $43.17 in fiscal 2024, with a projected annual growth of 9% to $47.86 in fiscal 2026 [3] - In Q2, United Rentals reported revenue of $3.9 billion, marking a 4.5% year-over-year increase, and adjusted EPS of $10.47, slightly missing expectations [5] Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - URI stock has increased by 24.3% over the past 52 weeks, outperforming the S&P 500 Index's 17.8% rise and the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund's 14.7% increase [4] - The positive stock performance is attributed to stable topline growth and strong demand in data center construction [5] Guidance and Share Repurchase - The company raised its full-year guidance and announced a $400 million increase to its 2025 share repurchase program, bringing the total to $1.9 billion [6] - Revenue outlook has been adjusted to a range of $15.8 billion to $16.1 billion, up from the previous range of $15.6 billion to $16.1 billion [6] Analyst Ratings - The consensus opinion on URI stock is moderately positive, with a "Moderate Buy" rating from 20 analysts, including 11 recommending "Strong Buy" and one suggesting "Strong Sell" [7]

Group 1 - Nvidia is recognized as the "de facto AI infrastructure company" and is highlighted as a key stock to watch [1] - Coherent (COHR) is also identified as a significant player in the AI data center sector [1] - United Rentals (URI) is noted for its exposure to data centers within the construction equipment supply industry [1] Group 2 - Sea Ltd. (SE), a Singapore-based gaming and e-commerce company, is included in the list of stocks near buy points [1] - Expedia Group (EXPE) rounds out the list of five stocks that are being monitored for potential investment opportunities [1] Group 3 - The stock market experienced a rebound to new highs last week, indicating positive market sentiment [2] - Upcoming events include OpenAI's DevDep Day, the release of Fed Minutes, and Taiwan Semiconductor's monthly sales report, which may impact market dynamics [2]

Upgrades - Baird upgraded United Rentals (URI) to Outperform from Neutral with a price target of $1,050, up from $888, indicating stabilization in the rental industry after two years of deceleration [2] - Jefferies upgraded Sunrun (RUN) to Buy from Hold with a price target of $21, up from $11, expecting cash generation to materialize in the second half and strong growth through 2026 as U.S. Third-Party Owners gain market share [3] - HSBC upgraded Autodesk (ADSK) to Buy from Hold with a price target of $343, down from $388, noting Autodesk's potential to monetize artificial intelligence and likely margin expansion [4] - Jefferies upgraded Delta Air Lines (DAL) to Buy from Hold with a price target of $70, up from $62, citing a raised Q3 revenue outlook to 2%-4% from 0%-4% as a sign of confidence in topline growth for Q4 and 2026 [5] - Jefferies upgraded Carvana (CVNA) to Buy from Hold with a price target of $475, up from $385, based on consumer survey results and capacity analysis suggesting continued elevated growth [6] Downgrades - Northland double downgraded DraftKings (DKNG) to Underperform from Outperform with a price target of $33, down from $53, due to increasing headwinds from prediction markets [7] - RBC Capital downgraded GE Vernova (GEV) to Sector Perform from Outperform with a price target of $605, down from $631, as current valuations reflect strong demand and productivity improvements [7] - Evercore ISI downgraded Allstate (ALL) to In Line from Outperform with a price target of $233, up from $230, citing over-earning in auto insurance and limited scope for positive estimate revisions [7] - Goldman Sachs downgraded Doximity (DOCS) to Sell from Neutral with a price target of $64, up from $57, indicating the growth profile does not support the current valuation [7] - Goldman Sachs downgraded LivaNova (LIVN) to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $55, down from $56, due to decelerating sales growth and slowing margin expansion [7]

Group 1: AI Investment Opportunity - Artificial intelligence is identified as the greatest investment opportunity of our lifetime, with a strong emphasis on the urgency to invest now [1] - Wall Street is investing hundreds of billions into AI, but there is a critical question regarding the energy supply needed to support this technology [2] - AI data centers consume massive amounts of energy, comparable to the energy needs of a small city, leading to concerns about power grid strain and rising electricity prices [2] Group 2: Company Overview - A specific company is highlighted as a key player in the AI energy sector, owning critical energy infrastructure assets that are essential for meeting the increasing energy demands of AI [3][6] - This company is positioned to benefit from the surge in demand for electricity driven by AI data centers, making it a potentially valuable investment in the digital age [3] Group 3: Financial Position - The company is noted for being completely debt-free and holding a significant cash reserve, which is nearly one-third of its market capitalization [8] - It also has a substantial equity stake in another AI-related company, providing investors with indirect exposure to multiple growth engines in the AI sector [9] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The company is involved in the U.S. LNG exportation sector, which is expected to grow under the current administration's energy policies [7] - The company is capable of executing large-scale engineering, procurement, and construction projects across various energy sectors, positioning it strategically in the market [7] Group 5: Investment Potential - The stock is described as undervalued, trading at less than seven times earnings, which presents a unique investment opportunity in the AI and energy space [10] - The company is recognized for delivering real cash flows and owning critical infrastructure, making it a solid investment choice as AI continues to disrupt traditional industries [11]

Upgrades - Jefferies upgraded Onto Innovation (ONTO) to Buy from Hold with a price target of $170, up from $100, citing expected growth reacceleration in the second half of 2026 [2] - Bernstein upgraded United Rentals (URI) to Outperform from Market Perform with a price target of $1,128, up from $885, indicating a 20% upside from current levels, viewing it as a cyclical rebound and portfolio transition story [2] - Guggenheim upgraded Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $206, up from $167, expressing confidence in the company's navigation of Stelara's loss of exclusivity and anticipating growth from its Innovative Medicine business [3] - Wells Fargo upgraded Omnicom (OMC) to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $91, up from $78, highlighting compelling upside potential near the close of the Interpublic Group merger [4] - Wells Fargo also upgraded CoreWeave (CRWV) to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $170, up from $105, noting the company's positioning to benefit from elevated build cycles and hyperscaler industry shortages into 2026 [5] - Melius Research upgraded CoreWeave to Buy from Hold with a price target of $165, up from $128 [5] Downgrades - Baird downgraded Lululemon (LULU) to Neutral from Outperform with a price target of $195, down from $225, due to low near-term confidence in growth and margin trajectory [6] - KeyBanc downgraded Lam Research (LRCX) to Sector Weight from Overweight without a price target, believing strong memory pricing may take time to drive new tool demand [6] - Citizens JMP downgraded CyberArk (CYBR) to Market Perform from Outperform without a price target, citing the pending acquisition by Palo Alto Networks and not anticipating a superior proposal [6] - Seaport Research downgraded Oklo (OKLO) to Neutral from Buy without a price target, acknowledging positives in business development but stepping aside based on valuation [6] - Jefferies downgraded Vistra (VST) to Hold from Buy with a price target of $230, down from $241, following a 160% stock run-up attributed to expectations of a Comanche Peak nuclear deal [6]

Group 1 - Citigroup has raised the target stock price for United Rentals from $1000 to $1080 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. construction equipment rental industry is benefiting from the Inflation Reduction Act, manufacturing reshoring, and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with minimal direct impact from tariffs. The expected Fed rate cuts and the Inflation Reduction Act are anticipated to stimulate overall construction demand in the U.S., driving growth in both equipment manufacturing and rental businesses [2][7]. Industry Characteristics - Rental companies procure equipment (e.g., aerial work platforms, forklifts) from manufacturers, reducing costs through bulk purchasing and establishing specialized maintenance teams to ensure equipment reliability. They typically charge customers on a daily/weekly/monthly basis, catering to temporary needs and lowering capital expenditure thresholds for clients. The U.S. equipment rental market has seen a CAGR of approximately 5% over the past 20 years, with an estimated market size of $78 billion in 2024 [2][12]. Major Players - **United Rentals**: Founded in 1997, projected revenue of $15.4 billion in 2024, holding about 15% market share in the U.S. equipment rental market. The company has 1,433 rental locations across all 50 states and 253 international locations. Equipment rental and used equipment sales account for 85% and 10% of revenue, respectively, with a revenue CAGR of 16% from 2020 to 2024 [3]. - **Ashtead**: Established in 1947, operates under the "Sunbelt Rentals" brand in North America. It holds approximately 11% market share in the U.S. equipment rental market, with a projected revenue CAGR of 14% from FY21 to FY25 [4]. - **Herc Rentals**: Founded in 1965, it holds about 4% market share in North America. The company has a projected revenue CAGR of 20% from 2020 to 2024 [4]. Downstream Market Cycles - **Industrial Sector**: Benefiting from the Chips Act, IIJA, and IRA, with strong demand in the power sector. The U.S. manufacturing PMI returned above 50 in August, indicating potential growth in industrial production [4][29]. - **Residential Construction**: Currently in a down cycle due to interest rate pressures, with expectations for spending growth to bottom out in 2025. The residential segment accounts for a small portion of rental companies' revenue [30][32]. - **Non-Residential Construction**: Expected to accelerate due to large projects, with significant growth in spending anticipated [34]. Growth Drivers - The manufacturing support legislation is expected to boost construction demand, with large projects providing incremental opportunities for the equipment rental market. The Biden administration's infrastructure investment acts are projected to drive $350 billion in actual investment from 2024 to 2026, creating approximately $2.3 billion in annual incremental market space for the rental industry [17][18]. Financial Conditions and Valuation - The valuation of rental companies is positively correlated with financial conditions; as financial conditions become more accommodative, the EV/EBITDA valuation of rental companies tends to increase [10][13].

Core Insights - United Rentals has demonstrated significant stock performance, with a 35% increase year-to-date and a remarkable 1,310% rise over the past decade, excluding dividends [1][2] - The company is the largest player in the equipment rental market, holding a 15% market share, and focuses on generating free cash flow and creating shareholder value [4][5] Business Model - United Rentals generates revenue primarily through equipment rentals and sales of used equipment, maintaining flexibility in capital expenditures based on market conditions [5] - The company has maintained a strong free cash flow margin of over 17% over the past decade, indicating efficient cash generation [5] Acquisition Strategy - The company actively uses its free cash flow for acquisitions to expand market share, exemplified by the $1.1 billion acquisition of Yak, which had an adjusted EBITDA of $171 million [6][7] - The acquisition was made at a favorable valuation of 6 times EBITDA, allowing United Rentals to quickly recoup its investment [7] Shareholder Returns - When acquisitions are not available, United Rentals engages in stock buybacks, leading to a consistent reduction in share count and contributing to near all-time high earnings per share (EPS) [8] Valuation Considerations - Despite strong business fundamentals, United Rentals' stock is currently trading at approximately 25 times projected free cash flow for the year, compared to a historical average of 15 times [11] - The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is also elevated, currently near 4, while historically it has ranged between 1 and 2, suggesting potential overvaluation [12] Investment Strategy - Investors may consider dollar-cost averaging as a strategy to build a position in United Rentals, especially for those who believe in the company's long-term prospects despite current valuation concerns [14][15]

Company Overview - United Rentals, Inc. (URI) is the world's largest equipment rental provider, valued at $62.4 billion by market cap, with a network of 1,666 locations across North America, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand [1] - The company serves various sectors including construction, industrial firms, utilities, municipalities, and homeowners [1] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, United Rentals reported a revenue increase of 5.8% year-over-year to $4.04 billion, with net income rising to $789 million and EPS advancing 13% to $12.12 [5] - The company generated $1.8 billion in adjusted EBITDA and maintained robust cash flow, alongside a share repurchase of $553 million [5] - Management reaffirmed full-year 2025 guidance, leading to a 9% stock rally following the earnings report [5] Stock Performance - URI stock prices surged 33.7% over the past three months, outperforming the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI), which gained 3.8% in the same period [3] - The stock has climbed 50.4% over the past year, significantly surpassing the XLI's 17.6% rise [4] - URI has been trading above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages since early May and late June, respectively, indicating a sustained uptrend [4] Competitive Landscape - United Rentals has underperformed compared to H&E Equipment Services, Inc. (HEES), which saw stock gains of 93.3% in 2025 and 99.2% over the past year [6] - Among 21 analysts covering URI stock, the consensus rating is a "Moderate Buy," with the stock currently trading above its mean price target of $894.39 [6]