格隆汇8月18日｜据长江云新闻，今日金山武汉总部新园区(即"武汉金山软件园")开园。金山集团董事 长、小米集团创始人兼CEO雷军介绍，小米、金山在汉人数已突破9000人，今年年内就将完成"万人研 发中心"目标。 (责任编辑：宋政 HN002) 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi has experienced significant volatility recently, with a 7.2% fluctuation over the past five days, indicating market uncertainty regarding its future performance [1]. Financial Performance Expectations - Xiaomi is set to announce its Q2 earnings on August 19, with net profit estimates ranging from 8.1 billion to 10.27 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 58.9% to 101.5% from 5.098 billion RMB [1]. - Revenue forecasts for Q2 are between 112.086 billion and 117.826 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26.1% to 32.6% from 88.888 billion RMB [1]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - CCB International maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi, adjusting the target price slightly from 75.25 RMB to 74.4 RMB, citing attractive valuation after a 16% pullback from recent highs [1]. - JPMorgan has a "Neutral" rating, with a target price of 60 RMB, noting that Xiaomi's stock has underperformed the benchmark index amid expectations of slowing profits in its core smartphone and IoT businesses [1]. Technical Analysis - Key support levels for Xiaomi are at 51.4 RMB and 48.7 RMB, while resistance levels are at 55.8 RMB and 57.7 RMB [2]. - A "death cross" is anticipated as the 10-day moving average approaches the 30-day moving average, indicating potential bearish sentiment [2]. Derivative Products and Trading Strategies - HSBC's call option (18005) offers a leverage of 7 times with a strike price of 60.65 RMB, suitable for short-term traders [5]. - UBS's call option (14816) provides a slightly lower leverage of 6.9 times, appealing to medium-term investors [5]. - For bearish investors, the Barclays put option (17868) offers a leverage of 4.8 times with a strike price of 54 RMB, presenting a favorable risk-reward ratio [5]. Market Insights - Recent performance of derivative products linked to Xiaomi has shown significant gains, with HSBC's call option rising by 18% and UBS's call option increasing by 36% in a volatile market [10]. - The upcoming earnings announcement raises questions about whether to position in derivatives beforehand or wait for the results [12].

Core Insights - Xiaomi is successfully entering the electric vehicle market with its YU7 SUV, which has garnered significant demand, leading the CEO to suggest consumers consider other brands for quicker delivery [1][4][6] Group 1: Product Launch and Market Position - The YU7 electric SUV was unveiled in June, following the success of the SU7, and has already received around 240,000 reservations within the first 18 hours of its launch [2][4] - The starting price for the YU7 is approximately $35,300, making it cheaper than Tesla's Model Y RWD, which starts at $36,700 [3] - The YU7 offers a driving range of about 519 miles, significantly surpassing the Model Y's range of 368 miles [3] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The YU7's launch is expected to exert pressure on Tesla in the Chinese market, particularly affecting the sales of the Model 3 [4][7] - Tesla's deliveries in China fell by 11.7% year-over-year to 128,803 units in the second quarter, indicating potential struggles against rising competition [7][8] Group 3: Consumer Insights and Recommendations - Wait times for the YU7 are reported to be around 56 to 59 weeks, prompting the CEO to advise consumers about potential delays and suggest alternative vehicles for quicker acquisition [5][6] - The CEO's recommendation of competing brands, including Tesla's Model Y, highlights the current demand for Xiaomi's vehicles [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the optimistic sentiment regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by easing inflation data and supportive comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin [1][10] - On August 13, U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin expressed optimism about the Federal Reserve's September meeting, suggesting a possible 50 basis point rate cut and advocating for a total reduction of 150 to 175 basis points [1][9] - Following these comments, U.S. stock indices opened higher, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising over 2%, indicating strong performance in Chinese assets [1][3] Group 2 - Chinese assets have been experiencing significant inflows from foreign investors, with $5.04 million net inflow into U.S.-listed Chinese asset-related ETFs last week, driven by funds like American Century Avantis Emerging Markets Equity [5] - Major Chinese tech stocks saw substantial gains, with Tencent Holdings ADR up nearly 7% and Meituan ADR up 4%, reflecting positive market sentiment [6][7] - Tencent reported Q2 revenue of 184.5 billion yuan, a 15% year-over-year increase, and operating profit of 69.25 billion yuan, an 18% increase, both exceeding market expectations [7]

Group 1 - Xiaomi's stock price is currently at 51.5 HKD, showing a 1.28% increase, but technical indicators suggest severe overselling with an RSI of 31, indicating a potential for a technical rebound [1] - The stock has fallen below all key moving averages, with MA10 at 52.85 HKD, MA30 at 55.98 HKD, and MA60 at 54.94 HKD, while other indicators like the Williams %R, Stochastic Oscillator, and CCI signal a buying opportunity [1] - Short-term support levels are identified at 48.8 HKD (Support 1) and 45.1 HKD (Support 2), with resistance levels at 53.5 HKD (Resistance 1) and 56 HKD (Resistance 2) [2] Group 2 - Recent derivative products have shown strong performance, with UBS bear certificate 59867 rising by 13% and JPMorgan bear certificate 55706 increasing by 12% during a period when Xiaomi's stock fell by 2.03% [4] - Recommended products for investors anticipating a rebound include Morgan Stanley call option 16583 with a strike price of 59.05 HKD and a leverage of 10.1 times, and Bank of China call option 29957 with a strike price of 59 HKD and a leverage of 9.9 times [7] - For bearish investors, Morgan Stanley put option 14322 and HSBC put option 14333, both with a strike price of 46.45 HKD and competitive premiums, are suggested [7][10]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi's stock price is currently experiencing volatility, with technical indicators suggesting a potential short-term rebound despite being in an oversold condition [1][12]. Technical Analysis - As of August 13, 2025, Xiaomi's stock price is at 52.5 HKD, showing a 1.55% increase. The RSI indicator is at 31, indicating an oversold condition. The stock price has fallen below the 10-day moving average (52.98 HKD) and the 30-day moving average (56.02 HKD), but is supported near the 60-day moving average (54.97 HKD) [1]. - The William and stochastic indicators are signaling a buy, contrasting with the MACD sell signal, suggesting a possible technical rebound in the short term [1]. - Key support levels are identified at 49.7 HKD and 46.4 HKD, while resistance levels are at 54.5 HKD and 57 HKD. A significant market volatility is indicated by an 8% fluctuation over five days [3]. Market Sentiment - Recent trading activity shows a capital inflow of 35 million HKD into Xiaomi's call options over the past five trading days, indicating investor interest in capitalizing on potential rebounds [1]. - The stock has seen fluctuations, with a recent low of 50.1 HKD and a previous high of over 60 HKD, reflecting investor concerns amid competitive pressures in the automotive sector [1]. Derivative Products Performance - Recent recommendations for derivative products have shown strong performance, with certain bull certificates experiencing gains of 30% and 24% in a short period, demonstrating the effectiveness of leveraged products in a rebound scenario [5]. - New recommendations for call options include HSBC's call option with a strike price of 60.65 HKD and a leverage of 7.2 times, suitable for speculative rebound plays [8]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to monitor the support level at 49.7 HKD closely. If this level holds, there may be opportunities for gradual accumulation [3]. - For bearish investors, options with lower strike prices and higher leverage are available, providing hedging opportunities against potential declines [8][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates that Xiaomi Group's valuation has become attractive after a 16% pullback from recent highs, with a maintained "buy" rating and a slight target price adjustment from HKD 75.25 to HKD 74.4 [1] - The revenue forecast for Xiaomi for Q2 2025 has been slightly reduced from RMB 123 billion to RMB 114 billion, and the adjusted net profit forecast has been lowered from RMB 10.9 billion to RMB 10.4 billion, reflecting factors such as a slight increase in smartphone shipments to 42.5 million units but a decrease in gross margin due to a higher low-end product mix and rising storage costs [1] - The expectation is that Xiaomi's innovative business segments, including smart electric vehicles and AI, will further reduce losses in Q2 and are anticipated to become profitable in the second half of the year, although the sales forecast for 2025 has been slightly adjusted down to 400,000 units due to delays in factory production [1] Group 2 - Despite the expectation that Xiaomi's smart electric vehicle business will enter a profitable phase in the second half of 2025, the valuation method for this segment will continue to use the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio due to capacity constraints and investments in AI and other new businesses, which may not fully reflect the profitability and growth prospects [2] - Based on a P/S ratio of 4 times for 2026, the valuation for the electric vehicle segment is maintained at HKD 30.4 per share [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Xiaomi Group's valuation has become attractive after a 16% pullback from recent highs, with a maintained "buy" rating and a slight target price adjustment from HKD 75.25 to HKD 74.4 [1] - The revenue forecast for Xiaomi's Q2 2025 has been slightly lowered from RMB 123 billion to RMB 114 billion, and the adjusted net profit forecast has been reduced from RMB 10.9 billion to RMB 10.4 billion, reflecting factors such as increased low-end product mix and rising storage costs [1] - Xiaomi's smartphone shipments are expected to be 42.5 million units, showing a slight quarter-on-quarter increase, but the gross margin is anticipated to decline slightly due to the aforementioned factors [1] Group 2 - Xiaomi's innovative business segments, including smart electric vehicles and AI, are expected to further reduce losses in Q2 and are projected to become profitable in the second half of the year [1] - The sales forecast for the electric vehicle segment has been slightly adjusted down to 400,000 units for 2025, while the 2026 forecast of 700,000 units has potential for upward revision [1] - The valuation method for Xiaomi's electric vehicle business will continue to use the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio due to capacity constraints and investments in new businesses, with a maintained valuation of HKD 30.4 per share based on a P/S ratio of 4 for 2026 [2]

摩根大通发布研报称，小米集团-W(01810)过去一个月表现跑输大市，股价累跌10%，对比同期恒指累 升约1.5%，相信是由于市场对下半年智能手机及物联网等核心业务盈利放缓感到忧虑，符合小摩今年3 月将其投资评级下调至"中性"时的观点。小摩维持小米的"中性"评级及目标价60港元。 小摩目前预测小米2025年智能手机收入仅增长5%，物联网业务收入料增长36%，当中下半年增速料各 明显放缓。电动车交付量自2025年3月以来维持每月约3万辆水平，新车型YU7需求仍然强劲。考虑到市 场已开始下调小米2025下半年及2026年核心盈利预测，小摩将该公司列入正面催化观察名单，预期电动 车交付数据将于未来数月回升，预料今年第四季可增长至每月交付4万辆，或推动股价在未来3至4个月 内上涨15%至20%。 ...

当地时间8月12日，美股主要指数全线高开高走，中国资产亦表现亮眼。 深夜大涨。 8月12日亚洲交易时段，A股整体强势，三大股指齐创年内新高，沪指斩获7连阳。此外，截至8月11日，沪深两市融资余额实现重要突破，时隔十年再次 突破两万亿元大关。 近日，国际机构对中国资产的关注度持续上升。2025年以来，多家外资机构上调对中国股市评级：高盛7月末将MSCI中国指数未来12个月的目标点位从85 点上调至90点；野村证券将评级从中性升至战术超配等；此外，瑞银、摩根士丹利等多家外资机构发布的最新股票观点中均持续看好中国股市。 同时，标普国际信用评级公司近日发布报告，决定维持中国主权信用评级"A+"和展望"稳定"不变。财政部有关负责人表示，标普报告对中国经济增长韧 性和债务管控成效高度认可，体现了对中国经济向好前景的信心。从长远来看，中国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜力大，支撑高质量发展的积极因素 不断积累。 截至发稿，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨幅超过1%。 热门中概股中，腾讯音乐涨超13%，中金科工业、小牛电动、奇富科技等涨幅超过5%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | | --- | --- | ...