Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [10][16]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated resilience in its financial performance, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching $2.981 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.78%, and net profit of $292 million, up 1.74% year-on-year [4][10]. - The company is focusing on store expansion and innovation, aiming to add 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, with a long-term goal of reaching 20,000 stores by 2026 [9][10]. - The report highlights the continuous improvement in same-store sales and a significant contribution from the delivery segment, which has seen a 13% year-on-year growth [6][10]. Company Overview - The latest closing price is HKD 348.00, with a total market capitalization of HKD 1,299.10 billion [3]. - The company has a total of 16,642 stores, with 247 new stores added in Q1 2025, of which 62 are franchise stores [5][9]. - The first major shareholder is JP Morgan Chase & Co. [3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a restaurant profit margin of 18.6%, an increase of 100 basis points year-on-year, driven by lower raw material costs and improved operational efficiency [6][10]. - The company expects revenue growth rates of 4.6%, 6.3%, and 5.7% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 2.2%, 11.0%, and 12.4% [10][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be $2.49, $2.77, and $3.11 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10][12]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing innovative measures, including menu updates and new business models, to expand its target market and increase market share [9][10]. - The report indicates a strong focus on shareholder returns, with $262 million returned to shareholders in Q1 2025, including $172 million in stock buybacks and $90 million in cash dividends [9][10].

2025 年 5 月 19 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观、行业点评及公司首发 全球市场观察 宏观点评 美国经济 - 关税削弱信心与需求 美国 4 月零售与制造业产出大幅放缓，显示关税冲击的影响已从消费者信心 和 PMI 等软数据传导至消费和工业产出等硬数据。汽车、家具家装、电子产 品等耐用品零售显著放缓。非耐用品零售低迷，运动文娱商品、服装和杂货 店等环比转跌。 但 4 月以来首次与持续领取失业金人数仍然平稳，裁员水平未见大幅提高， 因为关税主要影响制造业，对服务业影响相对较小，服务业就业依然稳健。 预计 5-8 月通胀可能短期反弹，失业率仍在低位，美联储将保持利率不变。 随着需求收缩效应逐渐抵消成本上升作用，通胀可能在 9 月前后见顶开始回 落。美联储可能在 9 月降息一次，11 月或 12 月再降一次。（链接） 1 上周五（5 月 16 日）中国股市继续回调。投资者观望情绪上升，因关税冲击 可能通过信心渠道导致房地产和消费放缓，延缓企业盈利复苏进程，但在 90 天经贸谈判窗口期内实施增量财政刺激与消费提振政策的可能性较低。港股 可选消费、能源与地产建筑领跌，医疗保健 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][9]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company reported total revenue of $3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1% (2% excluding foreign currency effects), and adjusted net profit of $292 million, up 2% (3% excluding foreign currency effects) [2][6]. - The company is expected to add 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, maintaining a high opening pace, which is anticipated to drive continued revenue growth [2][6]. - The projected net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is $989 million, $1.06 billion, and $1.127 billion, respectively, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 17, 16, and 15 times at the current stock price [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of $3 billion, with a 1% year-on-year growth, and an adjusted net profit of $292 million, reflecting a 2% increase [2][6]. - The company’s same-store sales remained flat, with a 4% increase in transaction volume for KFC and a 17% increase for Pizza Hut, while average transaction prices decreased by 4% and 14%, respectively [2][6]. Store Expansion - The company added 247 new stores in Q1 2025, with 25% being franchise stores. KFC accounted for 295 new stores, with 41% being franchises, while Pizza Hut added 45 stores, with 33% being franchises [2][6]. - As of the end of Q1, the total number of stores reached 16,642, including 11,943 KFC stores and 3,769 Pizza Hut stores [2][6]. Profitability - The cost structure improved, with a decrease in the proportion of raw material costs, leading to an increase in operating profit margins. KFC's restaurant profit margin rose by 0.5 percentage points to 19.8%, while Pizza Hut's increased by 1.9 percentage points to 14.4% [2][6]. - Overall, the company's core operating profit margin increased by 0.8 percentage points to 13.4% [2][6].

01 基金经理最新动态 1、今日新聘基金经理11人，离任3人 据东方财富Choice数据统计，今日新聘基金经理11人，涉及22只基金（A/C类分开计算），主要来自博 时基金、华安基金等公司。另外，今日有3位基金经理离任。 02 今日基金新闻速览 1. 公募考核基准变化导致调仓？多位公募人士：该说法不准确、不专业 多位公募业内人士表示，近日关于公募考核基准导致市场调仓的有关分析不准确、不专业，缺乏基本常 识和依据。公募基金近期不存在大规模调仓现象。即使未来要优化业绩比较基准，调整的也是基准本 身，目的是使基金产品更加"名副其实"，根本无需大规模调仓。记者向接近监管部门的专业人士求证， 也印证了前述观点。最近银行股、小盘股行情频繁切换，很可能与个别人借机炒作有关。 2. 恒生指数调入美的集团、中通快递，恒生科技指数调入比亚迪股份 恒生指数公司公布季检结果，恒生指数调入美的集团、中通快递，恒生科技指数调入比亚迪股份。 3. 大空头Q1几乎清空股票组合 对英伟达及多只中概股建立新看空押注 传奇对冲基金经理Michael Burry旗下对冲基金Scion Asset Management在一季度几乎清空全部股票投资 组 ...

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Financial Performance - Net income for the quarter ended March 31, 2025, was $313 million, a slight increase from $307 million in the same quarter of 2024, representing a growth of 1.9%[10] - Comprehensive income for Yum China Holdings, Inc. increased to $315 million in Q1 2025 from $216 million in Q1 2024, reflecting a growth of 46.0%[10] - For the first quarter of 2025, Yum China reported a net income of $292 million, compared to $287 million in the same period of 2024, reflecting a growth of 1.7%[13] - The comprehensive income for the first quarter of 2025 was $340 million, up from $226 million in the first quarter of 2024, indicating a year-over-year increase of 50.4%[13] - Basic Earnings Per Common Share (EPS) increased to $0.78 for the quarter ended March 31, 2025, compared to $0.72 for the same quarter in 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 8.3%[53] - Operating profit for the quarter ended March 31, 2025, was $399 million, compared to $374 million for the same quarter in 2024, reflecting an increase of about 6.7%[88] - The company reported a net income before income taxes of $428 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2025, compared to $420 million in the same quarter of 2024, reflecting a slight increase of approximately 1.9%[88] Cash Flow and Dividends - Cash provided by operating activities was $452 million for the quarter, compared to $442 million in the prior year, indicating a year-over-year increase of 2.3%[11] - Cash dividends paid on common stock increased to $90 million from $64 million, representing a rise of 40.6%[11] - Cash dividends declared for the first quarter of 2025 were $90 million, equating to $0.24 per common share[13] - The company declared a cash dividend of $0.24 per share, with a total estimated payout of approximately $90 million, payable on June 18, 2025[96] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets decreased to $11,002 million as of March 31, 2025, down from $11,121 million at the end of 2024, a decline of 1.1%[12] - Total liabilities decreased to $4,563 million from $4,694 million, a decline of 2.8%[12] - Cash and cash equivalents increased to $825 million from $723 million, marking a rise of 14.1%[12] - Inventories decreased to $329 million from $405 million, a reduction of 18.8%[12] - Contract liabilities decreased from $232 million as of December 31, 2024, to $209 million as of March 31, 2025, indicating a reduction of approximately 9.9%[51] - Accounts receivable, net, increased to $81 million as of March 31, 2025, from $79 million as of December 31, 2024, showing a growth of approximately 2.5%[57] Investments and Acquisitions - The company has a controlling interest of 65% in the Lavazza joint venture, which focuses on developing the Lavazza coffee concept in China[18] - The Company completed its investment in a 28% equity interest in Hangzhou Catering, resulting in an approximately 60% equity interest in Hangzhou KFC, consolidating its results from the acquisition date[26] - The Company's investment in Sunner was valued at $220 million as of March 31, 2025, exceeding its interest in Sunner's underlying net assets by $148 million[31] - The Company completed a strategic investment in SnowValley Agricultural Group for a total consideration of $14 million in the first quarter of 2025[36] Revenue Recognition - Revenues from Company-owned restaurants are recognized when a customer takes possession of the food and tenders payment[38] - Franchise fees and income are recognized over the term of the franchise agreement, generally 10 years for KFC and Pizza Hut[41] - The estimated value of loyalty program points earned is recorded as a reduction of revenue at the time the points are earned[47] - Revenue from external customers for the quarter ended March 31, 2025, was $2,981 million, an increase from $2,958 million in the same quarter of 2024, representing a growth of approximately 0.8%[88] Share Repurchases - The company repurchased $173 million worth of common stock during the quarter, compared to $679 million in the same quarter of the previous year, a decrease of 74.6%[11] - The company repurchased 3.6 million shares of common stock for $172 million during the quarter ended March 31, 2025, with approximately $1.1 billion remaining available for future share repurchases[54] Taxation - The income tax provision for the quarter ended March 31, 2025, was $119 million, reflecting an effective tax rate of 27.8%, up from 26.9% in the prior year[80] - The company will monitor the impact of the Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax (CAMT) of 15% on its financial statements[82] - The company has elected to account for Global Intangible Low Taxed Income (GILTI) tax as a period cost as incurred, affecting its annual effective tax rate[81] Lease Obligations - The company leased over 14,000 properties in China, with total lease liabilities amounting to $2,246 million as of March 31, 2025[66] - Operating lease costs for the quarter ended March 31, 2025, were $124 million, compared to $130 million for the same quarter in 2024[66] - The present value of lease liabilities as of March 31, 2025, was $2,246 million, with total undiscounted lease payments of $2,613 million[69] - The weighted-average remaining lease term for operating leases was 6.9 years as of March 31, 2025, down from 7.0 years in the previous year[68] Impairment and Depreciation - The company recorded no restaurant-level impairment for both quarters ended March 31, 2025, and 2024[79] - Impairment charges for the quarter ended March 31, 2025, totaled $6 million, up from $4 million in the same quarter of 2024, marking a 50% increase[89] - The company’s depreciation and amortization expenses for the quarter ended March 31, 2025, were $109 million, down from $117 million in the same quarter of 2024, indicating a decrease of about 6.8%[89] Segment Information - The company has two reportable segments: KFC and Pizza Hut, with other segments combined as All Other Segments due to their insignificance[86] - As of March 31, 2025, Yum China operates 11,943 KFC stores and 3,769 Pizza Hut restaurants in China[17]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has included Yum China Holdings Inc. (YUMC.N) in its Top Pick list, indicating a positive outlook for the company [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Targets - The company reiterated its target for a 4%-6% year-over-year growth in system sales by 2025 [2]. - The net new store target for 2025 remains at 1,600-1,800, with an acceleration in store expansion expected in the second half of the year [3]. - Same-store sales growth (SSSG) is expected to fluctuate quarterly, with a focus on increasing customer traffic, while average transaction value (TA) is under pressure [3]. Group 2: Recent Developments - Overall sales momentum during April and the Labor Day holiday met company expectations [4]. - The impact of aggressive promotions from delivery platforms on the delivery business is considered limited, with a focus on retaining core customers through its own super app [4]. - KFC reported a 4% decline in average transaction value in Q1 2025, attributed to a higher proportion of lower-value delivery orders and an increase in KCOFFEE and breakfast orders [4]. - Pizza Hut (PH) will continue to focus on low-price strategies to attract demand, with long-term improvements expected in restaurant profit margins [4]. Group 3: Valuation and Market Position - The valuation method suggests a target EV/EBITDA multiple of 10x for 2025, based on a 30% premium relative to the average EV/EBITDA of the Chinese consumer sector since Yum China's IPO in 2016 [5]. - Current expected EV/EBITDA for the consumer sector in 2025 is 8.5x, which is deemed reasonable due to the company's superior performance in cost savings and efficiency [5]. - The company has a market capitalization of approximately $16.54 billion, with a price target set at $57.00 [6].

Group 1 - Yum China (NYSE: YUMC) reported better-than-expected same-store sales growth (SSSg) and restaurant margins in 1Q25, aided by temporary store closures during the Chinese New Year and the permanent closure of inefficient stores [1] - The company is focusing on enhancing portfolio performance and uncovering alpha opportunities through actionable recommendations [1] - Astrada Advisors emphasizes its expertise in technology, media, internet, and consumer sectors across North America and Asia, which aids in identifying high-potential investments [1] Group 2 - The research provided by Astrada Advisors integrates rigorous fundamental analysis with data-driven insights, offering a nuanced understanding of key trends, growth drivers, and competitive landscapes [1] - The commitment of Astrada Advisors is to empower investors with timely research and a comprehensive view of industry dynamics, especially in volatile markets [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (9987.HK) [1] Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of $2.981 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1% (or 2% excluding foreign currency translation effects) [6] - Adjusted net profit reached $292 million, up 2% year-on-year (or 3% excluding foreign currency translation effects) [6] - Core operating profit margin improved to 13.4%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [6] - Same-store sales remained flat year-on-year, with a continued increase in transaction volume but a decrease in average ticket price [6] - The company opened a net of 247 new stores in Q1 2025, with a total of 16,642 restaurants at the end of the quarter [7] - The restaurant profit margin improved to 18.6%, up 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from lower food and packaging costs [8] Revenue Performance - Revenue for 2025 is projected to grow at a rate of 4.6% to $11.821 billion, with net profit expected to reach $957 million [12] - The company plans to add 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, with a target of over 20,000 stores by 2026 [7] Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts EPS of $2.56, $2.77, and $2.96 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 17x, 16x, and 15x for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China [4] Core Views - In Q1 2025, same-store sales remained flat year-on-year, which is an improvement compared to the declining trend in the previous four quarters. This performance aligns with market expectations [4] - The restaurant profit margin expanded by 100 basis points year-on-year, and the operating profit margin increased by 80 basis points, slightly exceeding market expectations and management's guidance for the year [4] - The management attributes the company's ability to achieve stable performance in a complex consumer environment to strong management capabilities and flexible market responsiveness, allowing for quick operational adjustments [4] - The management has maintained its full-year guidance for 2025, expecting a low single-digit year-on-year growth in system-wide revenue and stable or slightly improved core operating profit margin [4] Financial Summary - For 2025, the projected revenue is 11,720 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [9] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is 924 million RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [9] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for Hong Kong shares is projected at 18.9x for 2025, while for US shares, it is 19.1x [9] - The expected return on equity (ROE) for 2025 is 17.0% [9] Brand Performance - KFC's restaurant profit margin remained stable year-on-year, while Pizza Hut's restaurant profit margin showed slight improvement [4] - Pizza Hut's average ticket price decreased by 14% year-on-year in Q1 2025, but same-store traffic increased significantly by 17%, marking the fastest growth since Q3 2023 [4] - Kcoffee, which reached 1,000 stores by the end of Q1 2025, continues to grow strongly, with sales and cup volume increasing by 20% year-on-year [4]