Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 performance met expectations with revenue of $2.981 billion, a slight increase of 0.8% year-on-year, and a core operating profit of $405 million, which adjusted for currency effects, rose by 8% [2][5]. - Profitability continues to improve, with the overall restaurant profit margin at 18.6%, up by 1.0 percentage points, driven by higher gross margins and a decrease in the proportion of rental and operational costs [3]. - The company is expanding its new store formats, with KFC's same-store sales decline narrowing and a significant increase in order volume, while Pizza Hut is seeing a notable rise in single-store sales [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Q1 system sales for KFC increased by 3%, with same-store sales growth stabilizing and a 4% increase in order volume. The restaurant profit margin for KFC was 19.8%, benefiting from lower raw material costs and operational efficiencies [3]. - Pizza Hut's system sales also rose by 3%, with a 17% increase in order volume, although average transaction value decreased. The restaurant profit margin improved to 14.4% [4]. - The company forecasts a steady improvement in same-store sales growth driven by new product marketing and operational efficiency, with projected net profits of $940 million, $1.001 billion, and $1.051 billion for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [5][10]. Valuation Metrics - The report projects a PE ratio of 17.2, 16.2, and 15.4 for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively, indicating a strong valuation outlook [5][10]. - The company is expected to return a total of $3 billion to shareholders over 2025E and 2026E, highlighting its strong dividend attributes [5].

Core Viewpoint - Yum China Holdings, Inc. reported disappointing first-quarter 2025 results, with both earnings and revenues falling short of expectations for the fourth consecutive quarter, leading to a 7.2% decline in share price due to weaker-than-expected performance and cautious consumer spending [1][2]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were 77 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 78 cents by 1.3%, but reflecting an 8.5% year-over-year increase [2]. - Total revenues reached $2,981 million, falling short of the consensus estimate of $3,111 million, although this represented a 1% year-over-year increase; excluding foreign currency translation, revenues increased by 2% [2]. - Same-store sales matched the previous year's level, with same-store transactions growing by 6% year-over-year [3]. Operating Highlights - Total costs and expenses were $2.58 billion, remaining flat year-over-year, while the expected figure was $2.71 billion [4]. - The restaurant margin improved to 18.6%, up 100 basis points year-over-year, exceeding the estimated margin of 17.8% [4]. - Adjusted operating profit was $399 million, compared to $374 million in the prior year, slightly below the estimate of $403.1 million [4]. - Adjusted net income was $292 million, up from $287 million year-over-year, but below the estimate of $296 million [5]. Balance Sheet and Shareholder Returns - As of March 31, 2025, cash and cash equivalents were $825 million, up from $723 million at the end of 2024; net inventories decreased to $329 million from $405 million [6]. - The company plans to return a total of $3 billion to shareholders between 2025 and 2026, building on the $1.5 billion returned in 2024 [6]. - In Q1 2025, Yum China returned $262 million to shareholders, including $172 million in share repurchases and $90 million in cash dividends, with approximately $1.1 billion remaining for future repurchases [7]. Unit Development and Sales Contribution - Yum China opened 247 net new stores in the first quarter, bringing the total restaurant count to 16,642 [8]. - Delivery services contributed approximately 42% to KFC and Pizza Hut's company sales, while digital orders accounted for about 93% of total company sales [9]. - The company anticipates that the proportion of net new franchised stores will increase, targeting 40-50% for KFC and 20-30% for Pizza Hut in the coming years [9]. 2025 Outlook - Yum China expects to open between 1,600 and 1,800 net new stores in 2025, with capital expenditures projected to be between $700 million and $800 million [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 performance met expectations with revenue of $2.981 billion, a slight increase of 0.8% year-on-year. System sales rose by 2%, and core operating profit reached $405 million, reflecting an 8% increase after excluding currency effects [2]. - Profitability continues to improve, with the overall restaurant profit margin at 18.6%, up by 1.0 percentage points, driven by higher gross margins and a decrease in the proportion of property rents and other operating costs [3]. - The company is making progress with new store formats, including the successful expansion of KFC and Pizza Hut, with KFC's same-store sales decline narrowing and significant increases in order volume for Pizza Hut [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1, KFC's system sales increased by 3%, with a same-store sales growth rate holding steady. The restaurant profit margin improved to 19.8%, benefiting from lower raw material costs and operational efficiencies [3]. - Pizza Hut also saw a 3% increase in system sales, with a notable 17% rise in order volume. The restaurant profit margin improved to 14.4%, despite a decline in average customer spending [4]. - The company forecasts a steady improvement in same-store sales growth driven by new product marketing, price increases at KFC, and enhanced value propositions at Pizza Hut [5]. Financial Projections - The company projects net profits for 2025 to be $940 million, with a growth rate of 3.2%, and anticipates a combined shareholder return of $3 billion over 2025-2026, highlighting a strong dividend yield [5]. - Key financial metrics include projected revenue growth rates of 2.82% for 2025 and 3.83% for 2026, with a consistent increase in diluted earnings per share [10].

Group 1 - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index experienced a preliminary decline of 0.8% [1] - Notable Chinese concept stocks included Tencent ADR rising by 4.8%, Xiaomi ADR increasing by 1.2%, and Li Auto rising by 1.2% [1] - Other stocks such as Netease and Alibaba saw modest gains of up to 0.5%, while Xpeng fell by 0.2%, JD.com dropped by 0.8%, Baidu decreased by 1.8%, NIO declined by 4.3%, Pony.ai fell by 5.2%, and Yum China dropped by 7.3% [1]

Core Insights - Yum China Holdings, Inc. reported a record revenue of $3 billion for Q1 2025, with a 2% year-over-year growth after adjusting for currency fluctuations, and an 8% increase in core operating profit [1] - Same-store sales returned to last year's levels for the first time since Q1 2024, with a continuous increase in same-store transaction volume for nine consecutive quarters, indicating robust consumer momentum [1] - The total number of stores reached 16,642, with over 540 million members for KFC and Pizza Hut, marking a 12% year-over-year growth [1] Brand Performance - KFC maintained a steady performance with a 4% year-over-year increase in same-store transaction volume, benefiting from reduced delivery costs and an expanded price range [1] - Pizza Hut experienced a significant 17% year-over-year increase in same-store transaction volume, driven by growth in delivery services and popular promotions [1][2] Innovation and Expansion - Yum China views innovation as a core driver, with KFC's new coffee business, Kenuo Coffee, rapidly gaining traction and expected to exceed 1,500 stores by the end of 2025 [4][6] - The WOW store model for Pizza Hut focuses on simplified menus and high cost-performance, appealing to younger consumers and single diners, with plans for further expansion into lower-tier markets [4][6] Future Outlook - The company plans to add 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025 and aims to return $3 billion to shareholders between 2025 and 2026, building on the $1.5 billion returned in 2024 [7]

Core Viewpoint - Yum China Holdings reported a revenue of $2.98 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, showing a year-over-year increase of 0.8%, but fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.11 billion, resulting in a surprise of -4.19% [1] Financial Performance - Earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $0.77, compared to $0.71 a year ago, indicating an increase [1] - The EPS surprise was -1.28%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $0.78 [1] Key Metrics - Total number of restaurants: 16,642, below the average estimate of 16,807 [4] - Number of Pizza Hut restaurants: 3,769, compared to the average estimate of 3,841 [4] - Number of KFC restaurants: 11,943, slightly below the average estimate of 11,950 [4] Revenue Breakdown - Revenues from transactions with franchisees: $121 million, compared to the average estimate of $124.88 million, representing a year-over-year change of +13.1% [4] - Other revenues: $32 million, below the average estimate of $34.35 million, with no change year-over-year [4] - Franchise fees and income: $27 million, compared to the average estimate of $29.98 million, showing a year-over-year increase of +8% [4] - Company sales: $2.80 billion, below the average estimate of $2.91 billion, with a year-over-year change of +0.3% [4] - KFC company sales: $2.21 billion, compared to the average estimate of $2.30 billion, reflecting a +0.7% change year-over-year [4] - KFC franchise fees and income: $21 million, slightly below the average estimate of $21.62 million, with a year-over-year increase of +16.7% [4] - KFC other revenues: $1 million, significantly below the average estimate of $4.52 million, showing a year-over-year decline of -80% [4] - KFC revenues from transactions with franchisees: $16 million, compared to the average estimate of $16.71 million, with a year-over-year increase of +14.3% [4] Stock Performance - Shares of Yum China have returned -11.8% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite changed by -0.2% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Insights - Yum China Holdings (YUMC) reported quarterly earnings of $0.77 per share, slightly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.78 per share, but showing an increase from $0.71 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of -1.28% [1] - The company posted revenues of $2.98 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, which was 4.19% below the Zacks Consensus Estimate, and a slight increase from $2.96 billion year-over-year [2] - Yum China has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times over the last four quarters, but has not beaten revenue estimates in the same period [2] Company Performance - Since the beginning of the year, Yum China shares have declined by approximately 3.1%, while the S&P 500 has decreased by 5.5% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.59 on revenues of $2.84 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $2.51 on revenues of $11.86 billion [7] Industry Outlook - The Retail - Restaurants industry, to which Yum China belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 17% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges ahead [8] - Empirical research suggests a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which could impact Yum China's stock performance [5][6]

Core Insights - Yum China Holdings, Inc. reported strong Q1 2025 results driven by efficiency and innovation, achieving an overall operating profit margin of 13.4% and same-store sales growth for nine consecutive quarters [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The total number of stores reached 16,642 by the end of March, leading the restaurant industry in China [1] - KFC's system sales increased by 3% year-over-year, attributed to innovative product offerings [3] - Pizza Hut's system sales grew by 2% year-over-year, with a significant 17% increase in same-store sales [3] Group 2: Brand Strategy and Consumer Engagement - KFC's innovative approach included launching a spicy version of its classic chicken to celebrate its 85th anniversary, successfully blending Western and Chinese flavors [3] - Pizza Hut's strategy focused on cost control and revenue enhancement, exemplified by its 35th-anniversary promotion of the Super Supreme Pizza [3] - Membership numbers exceeded 540 million, with 66% of revenue coming from member purchases, indicating strong brand loyalty [4] Group 3: Expansion and Innovation - KFC's coffee brand, K Coffee, opened 1,000 stores in two years, with plans to reach 1,500 by the end of 2025, targeting young consumers with affordable premium coffee [5] - Pizza Hut's WOW model is expanding into lower-tier markets, appealing to a broader consumer base with a flexible and low-cost approach [5] Group 4: Technological Integration - The company utilizes AI technology across various operational aspects, achieving a 90% resolution rate for customer complaints through AI-driven customer service [7] - Yum China plans to open 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, demonstrating resilience and commitment to growth despite market changes [7]

First Quarter 2025 Results Apr 30, 2025 NYSE: YUMC and HKEX: 9987 Cautionary Statement This presentation contains "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. We intend all forward-looking statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements generally can be identified by the fact that they do not relate strictly to hist ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, the company achieved record highs in revenue, net income, and diluted EPS, with diluted EPS increasing by 10% year over year [6][26] - Same store sales index reached 100% of the prior year level for the first time since Q1 2024, with same store transactions growing for nine consecutive quarters [7][12] - Operating profit grew by 8% year over year, and restaurant margin expanded by 100 basis points [7][26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - KFC system sales grew by 3% year over year, with restaurant margin expanding to 19.8% [9][13] - Pizza Hut system sales increased by 2% year over year, with same store sales index nearly reaching 100% of the prior year level and same store transactions growing by 17% [15][16] - KFC opened 295 net new stores, bringing the total to 11,943, while Pizza Hut expanded to 3,769 stores with a net addition of 45 stores [11][18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a complex and evolving consumer environment, with rational spending patterns observed among consumers [29][50] - Delivery business for KFC grew by 13%, while Pizza Hut also achieved a 13% increase in delivery sales [72] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on operational efficiency and innovation, with initiatives like Project Fresh Eye and Project Red Eye aimed at streamlining operations and enhancing customer experience [41][42] - KFC is expanding its K Coffee business, targeting 1,500 locations by the end of 2025, while Pizza Hut is introducing new store models to capture additional market share [38][40] - The company aims to maintain or slightly improve core operating profit margins for the full year [31][60] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains cautious about potential fluctuations in same store sales index but reiterates guidance for mid-single digit system sales growth for 2025 [30][60] - The company is adapting to competitive pressures, particularly from delivery aggregators, while maintaining strong control over its business [52][53] Other Important Information - The company plans to return $3 billion to shareholders from 2025 to 2026, in addition to $1.5 billion returned in 2024 [28] - The effective tax rate for the quarter was 27.8%, which is 90 basis points higher year over year [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of competition and demand trends post-Q1 - Management noted that April performance was in line with expectations, with no significant negative impact observed so far, but they remain watchful of market conditions [49][50] Question: Same store sales trajectory for Pizza Hut - Management indicated that while they strive for ten consecutive quarters of positive transaction growth, they remain cautious about potential fluctuations in same store sales index [58][60] Question: Consumer environment in China and transaction growth at KFC - Management reported solid transaction growth at KFC, with a 4% increase in Q1, and noted that they are capturing market share, particularly in the delivery business [70][73] Question: New store expansion and revenue growth - Management confirmed that while new store growth is contributing to revenue, the mix shift towards smaller stores may limit revenue growth from new stores in the near term [81][84] Question: Long-term view on K Coffee - Management expressed commitment to the K Coffee business, highlighting its potential for top line growth and profitability due to shared resources with KFC [93][96] Question: Brand marketing strategies - Management emphasized their focus on staying relevant to consumer preferences and introducing healthier options through new concepts like K PRO [100][102]