Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 230.40 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 24.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.68% [2] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 79.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.11% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.74%, with a net profit of 9.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.17% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.09% [2] - The company is expanding its resources and has ongoing projects that are expected to enhance production capacity in the future [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Performance Overview - The company’s copper production in Q3 2024 increased by 5.8% quarter-on-quarter to 271,000 tons, gold production increased by 1.4% to 18.9 tons, and zinc production increased by 7.9% to 110,000 tons [3] - The average selling prices for copper concentrate, electrolytic copper, and zinc decreased by 9.5%, 15.9%, and 1.5% respectively in Q3 2024 [3] - The unit sales costs for copper concentrate and electrolytic copper increased by 2.6% and 2.9% respectively, while the cost for zinc decreased by 13.5% [3] Project Development - The company plans to invest 1 billion USD to acquire 100% equity in the Akyem gold mine in Ghana, which has significant production potential [4] - The construction of the Juno copper mine in Tibet is underway with an estimated investment of approximately 8.39 billion yuan, expected to be operational by June 2026 [4] - The company is also working on lithium projects, although progress has been delayed due to regulatory issues [4] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 313.04 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 33.62 billion yuan, reflecting a profit growth rate of 59.20% [11] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is 1.27 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 14 [11]

紫金矿业（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 601899） 公司点评 Q3 业绩符合预期，收购金矿持续增利 [Table_Rank] 投资评级：买入（维持） 报告日期： 2024-10-21 主要观点： | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|-------------| | | | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 17.63 | | 近 12 个月最高 / 最低（元） | 19.87/11.21 | | 总股本（百万股） | 26,578 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 26,545 | | 流通股比例（ % ） | 99.88 | | 总市值（亿元） | 4,686 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 4,680 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -23% 1% 25% 49% 73% 10/23 1/24 4/24 7/24 10/24 紫金矿业 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：黄玺 执业证书号：S0010524060001 邮箱：huangxi@hazq.co ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zijin Mining (601899) [6] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with revenue of 230.4 billion yuan (up 2.4% year-on-year) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 24.36 billion yuan (up 50.7% year-on-year) [6] - The increase in revenue and profit is attributed to rising prices (copper and gold prices up 10% and 22% year-on-year, respectively) and production growth (copper and gold production up 5% and 8% year-on-year) [6] - The company has announced a five-year plan aiming to achieve significant production targets by 2028, including copper production of 1.5-1.6 million tons and gold production of 100-110 tons annually [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 799.8 billion yuan (up 7.1% year-on-year, up 5.7% quarter-on-quarter) and a net profit of 9.27 billion yuan (up 58.2% year-on-year, up 5.1% quarter-on-quarter) [6] - The gross margin for mining enterprises was 58.5%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous quarter [6] Production Data - In Q3 2024, copper production increased by 6% quarter-on-quarter to 271,000 tons, while gold production rose by 1% to 18.9 tons [6] - The average selling price for copper was 58,000 yuan per ton (down 9.8% quarter-on-quarter), and for gold, it was 537.2 yuan per gram (up 5.1% quarter-on-quarter) [6] Strategic Developments - The company is proceeding with the internal project for the Tibet Juno copper mine with an investment of approximately 8.393 billion yuan, expected to be operational by June 2026 [6] - Zijin Mining signed an agreement to acquire 100% equity in the Akyem gold mine in Ghana for 1 billion USD, which is one of the largest gold mines in Ghana [6] - The company plans to optimize processes and reduce costs for projects in Argentina and Tibet due to delays in project approvals and low lithium prices [6] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised upwards due to rising gold prices, with expected net profits of 32.94 billion yuan, 37.96 billion yuan, and 39.42 billion yuan for the respective years [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][57]. Core Insights - The company achieved its best historical performance in the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue of 230.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 24.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.7% [2][9]. - The increase in net profit is primarily attributed to a rise in gross profit, which increased by 10.893 billion yuan year-on-year, driven by higher sales prices and volumes of key products, particularly copper and gold [3][12]. - The company expects continued growth in copper and gold production, with projected net profits of 32.5 billion yuan, 40 billion yuan, and 44.9 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [57]. Summary by Sections 1. Event: Company Releases Q3 2024 Report - The company reported a revenue of 800 billion yuan for Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.7% [2][9]. 2. Copper and Gold Product Volume and Price Increase - The average selling prices for gold and copper increased by 25.5% and 13.9% year-on-year, respectively, with sales volumes growing by 3.4% and 2.3% [3][12]. 3. Gross Profit Analysis - The gross profit for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 10.893 billion yuan, with Q3 gross profit showing a year-on-year increase of 4.1 billion yuan [15][17]. 4. Expense Analysis - The company experienced a slight increase in operating expenses in Q3 2024, with total expenses amounting to 3.243 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase [26][25]. 5. Non-Recurring Profit Increase - Non-recurring profits increased by 1.696 billion yuan in Q3 2024, mainly due to fair value changes [31][34]. 6. Operating Cash Flow - The company reported a net cash inflow from operating activities of 15.662 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.967 billion yuan [36]. 7. Project Tracking - The company is actively pursuing multiple acquisitions and has made significant progress in ongoing projects, including the development of the Junuo copper mine and the acquisition of the Akyem gold mine [39][44][55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zijin Mining and sets a target price of 22.25 CNY [3][4]. Core Views - In the first three quarters of 2024, both gold and copper production volumes and prices have risen, leading to record quarterly performance. The company continues to unveil new gold and copper projects, indicating sustained long-term growth potential [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 24.36 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 51%. The net profit for Q3 alone was 9.27 billion CNY, up 58% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The production volumes for gold, copper, and silver in the first three quarters were 54.3 tons, 789,000 tons, and 331 tons, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 8%, 5%, and 7% [3]. - The average selling prices for Q3 were 537 CNY/gram for gold, 58,000 CNY/ton for copper, and 4.9 CNY/gram for silver, with year-on-year increases of 32%, 12%, and 36% respectively [3]. Production and Cost Analysis - The average sales cost for gold and copper in Q3 was 233 CNY/gram and 22,900 CNY/ton, with a slight increase in costs but overall performance meeting expectations [3]. - The company has ongoing resource acquisitions, including a 100% stake in the Akyem gold mine in Ghana, expected to contribute an average annual production of about 5.8 tons [3]. Future Outlook - The company plans to increase its gold and copper production to 90 tons and 1.17 million tons by 2025, representing increases of 32% and 16% from 2023 [3]. - Long-term projections indicate a compound annual growth rate of 9% for copper and gold production by 2028 [3]. - The company is diversifying its portfolio by investing in lithium, molybdenum, and silver, which are critical metals for global energy transition [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][15]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 230.396 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 2.39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 24.357 billion yuan, up 50.68% year-on-year. The third quarter alone saw a net profit of 9.273 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.09% [5][15]. - The company is experiencing growth in core mineral production, with gold production increasing by 8.3% year-on-year to 54.27 tons, copper production up 4.7% to 789,500 tons, and silver production rising by 6.7% to 331.1 tons [5][15]. - The company is actively advancing new projects, including significant expansions in copper and gold mining capacities, with several projects expected to come online by 2025 [13][14]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue and net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised upwards, with expected revenues of 307.4 billion yuan, 355.8 billion yuan, and 379.1 billion yuan, respectively, and net profits of 33.136 billion yuan, 36.804 billion yuan, and 41.110 billion yuan [2][15]. - The company’s gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 19.53%, an increase of 4.37 percentage points year-on-year, with mineral product gross margins showing significant improvements [11][15]. Production and Cost Metrics - The unit operating costs for core minerals have shown positive trends, with gold at 229.18 yuan per gram, copper at 22,571.48 yuan per ton, zinc at 8,585 yuan per ton, and silver at 1.85 yuan per gram [6][11]. - The company has set ambitious production targets for 2024 and 2025, aiming for gold production of 73.5 tons and 90 tons, and copper production of 111,000 tons and 117,000 tons, respectively [8][12]. Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on expanding its resource base through both acquisitions and self-exploration, with significant geological exploration successes reported in its copper mining projects [12][14]. - New lithium projects are also in development, with plans to achieve a lithium carbonate production capacity of 12-15 million tons by 2025 [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zijin Mining Group (601899 SH) [3] Core Views - Zijin Mining's Q3 2024 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with gold and copper production increasing by 1% and 6% quarter-over-quarter respectively [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 230 4 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-over-year increase of 2 4%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 243 6 billion yuan, up 50 7% year-over-year [1] - Q3 2024 net profit attributable to the parent company was 92 7 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 58 2% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 5 1% [1] - The report is optimistic about the continued upward trend in copper and gold prices, driven by supply constraints and favorable demand in Q4 2024 [2] Production and Costs - Q3 2024 gold production was 18 9 tons, up 6 2% year-over-year and 1 4% quarter-over-quarter, while copper production was 271,000 tons, up 3 4% year-over-year and 5 9% quarter-over-quarter [2] - Q3 2024 gold and copper prices averaged $2,446 per ounce and $9,313 per ton, up 4% and down 6% quarter-over-quarter respectively [2] - Copper concentrate and gold concentrate costs increased slightly in Q3 2024, while gold ingot costs decreased by 1% quarter-over-quarter [2] Financial Performance - The difference between non-GAAP and GAAP net profit in Q3 2024 was mainly due to a 15 9 billion yuan gain from fair value changes [2] - The company's fair value changes were primarily driven by commodity hedging contracts [2] Project Updates - The commissioning of the lithium carbonate projects in Argentina and Tibet has been delayed to 2025 due to licensing delays and low lithium prices [2] Industry Outlook - Copper prices are expected to continue rising in Q4 2024 due to tightening supply and strong demand from the power grid and home appliance sectors [2] - Gold prices are expected to benefit from the US interest rate cut cycle and a potential return of ETF investment demand [2] Valuation and Forecast - The report raises the company's profit forecast for 2024/2025/2026 to 337/402/482 billion yuan, representing year-over-year growth of 59 5%/19 3%/20 1% [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 14/12/10 times for 2024/2025/2026 [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][3] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong earnings realization capabilities and is actively expanding its resources [3] - The company is expected to achieve its annual production targets despite some delays in project timelines due to regulatory issues and low lithium prices [5][6] - The target prices are set at HKD 19.01 and RMB 19.67, reflecting an upward adjustment based on the anticipated rise in copper and gold prices [7] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenues of RMB 799.80 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.11% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.74% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 2024 was RMB 92.73 billion, up 58.17% year-on-year and 5.09% quarter-on-quarter [3] - Cumulative revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached RMB 2,303.96 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.39%, with net profit attributable to the parent company at RMB 243.57 billion, up 50.68% year-on-year [3] Production and Cost Management - The company achieved copper and gold production of 270,000 tons and 18.9 tons in Q3 2024, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.7% and 1.4% respectively [5] - The company is expected to meet its annual production targets of 1.11 million tons of copper and 73.5 tons of gold [5] - Cost management remains stable, with expectations to meet annual cost targets despite fluctuations in commodity prices [4] Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 1.29, RMB 1.42, and RMB 1.58 respectively [2][7] - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 13.68 in 2024 to 11.17 in 2026, indicating improving valuation [2][7] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 27.82% in 2024, reflecting strong profitability [2][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Zijin Mining, with a target price of 19.46 CNY, compared to the current price of 17.63 CNY [1][2]. Core Views - The company's performance meets expectations, benefiting from increased gold and copper production and prices, achieving a record high net profit attributable to shareholders in a single quarter [1][2]. - The report highlights the internal project initiation for the Juno Copper Mine, which is expected to support the company's long-term copper production goals [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, Zijin Mining reported revenue of 230.396 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 2.39%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 24.357 billion CNY, up 50.68% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 79.98 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 7.11%, and a net profit of 9.273 billion CNY, up 58.17% year-on-year [1][2]. - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 36.1 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 40.38% [1]. Production and Cost Management - The production of key minerals showed steady growth, with gold, copper, silver, and zinc output increasing by 8%, 5%, 7%, and decreasing by 4% respectively year-on-year for the first nine months of 2024 [1]. - The report indicates effective cost control, with the sales cost of gold and copper showing mixed trends, while the overall gross margin improved [1][2]. Future Projections - The report forecasts net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 32.355 billion CNY, 37.506 billion CNY, and 45.219 billion CNY respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 53.2%, 15.9%, and 20.6% [2][3]. - The Juno Copper Mine project is expected to contribute significantly to the company's copper production targets, aiming for an annual output of approximately 76,000 tons post-2026 [1][2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][13]. Core Views - The company has benefited significantly from the rise in metal prices, with Q3 performance meeting expectations. The main metal production has seen both volume and price increases, contributing to substantial year-on-year profit growth [10][11]. - The company is a global mining giant, and its world-class resource and capacity allocation will support rapid production growth, particularly in copper and gold [13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 230.396 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.39%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 24.357 billion yuan, up 50.68% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 23.747 billion yuan, reflecting a 56.16% increase [10][12]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 79.980 billion yuan, a 7.11% year-on-year increase and a 5.74% quarter-on-quarter increase. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.273 billion yuan, up 58.17% year-on-year and 5.09% quarter-on-quarter [10][11]. Production and Cost Management - The company reported production of copper, gold, silver, and zinc for Q1-Q3 2024 at 789,500 tons, 54,270 tons, 311,110 tons, and 309,700 tons, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +4.7%, +8.3%, +6.7%, and -4.2% [11]. - The average prices for copper, gold, silver, and zinc increased by 10.0%, 21.9%, 28.9%, and 5.1% year-on-year for Q1-Q3 2024 [11]. - The company has made progress in cost control, achieving a comprehensive gross margin of 19.53% for Q1-Q3 2024, an increase of 4.37 percentage points year-on-year [12]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 32.225 billion yuan, 38.411 billion yuan, and 45.084 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The corresponding EPS is projected to be 1.21 yuan, 1.45 yuan, and 1.70 yuan [13][14]. - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 14.5, 12.2, and 10.4 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [13].