Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Tower Corp Ltd is Overweight, with an industry view classified as Attractive [4][62]. Core Insights - The total revenue for 1Q25 was Rmb24.8 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.3% [7]. - The tower business revenue decreased by 0.4% year-over-year, while the DAS business grew by 15.2% year-over-year [2][7]. - The smart tower and energy business saw a year-over-year increase of 17.9%, although it experienced a quarter-over-quarter decline of 18.5% [2][7]. - EBITDA increased by 4.2% year-over-year to Rmb17.3 billion, with a margin expansion of 0.6 percentage points [7]. - Net profit rose by 8.6% year-over-year to Rmb3 billion, with a margin increase of 0.6 percentage points [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Tower business revenue: Rmb18,877 million, down 0.4% YoY, up 0.5% QoQ [2]. - DAS business revenue: Rmb2,347 million, up 15.2% YoY, up 6.3% QoQ [2]. - Smart Tower and Energy business revenue: Rmb3,457 million, up 17.9% YoY, down 18.5% QoQ [2]. - Total revenue: Rmb24,771 million, up 3.3% YoY, down 2.2% QoQ [2]. - EBITDA: Rmb17,295 million, up 4.2% YoY, margin at 69.8% [2][7]. - Profit before taxation: Rmb4,006 million, up 8.6% YoY, margin at 16.2% [2]. - Net profit: Rmb3,024 million, up 8.6% YoY, margin at 12.2% [2]. Market Position - Current market capitalization is US$24.8 billion, with an enterprise value of US$33.99 billion [4]. - The average daily trading value is US$71 million [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating for Largan Precision Co Ltd, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance relative to its peers [31]. Core Insights - The report updates the iPhone EMS build estimates for 2024 and 1H25, reflecting India's production capacity, which is expected to contribute approximately 3.5 million units per month, totaling around 40 million units annually [3][10]. - The total iPhone build estimate for 2025 is projected at 233 million units, representing a slight year-over-year decline [1][3]. - Demand uncertainties are anticipated due to the impact of US tariffs and China's export restrictions on rare-earth elements, which may affect the supply chain and production costs [1][4]. Summary by Sections iPhone Build Estimates - The updated iPhone EMS build for 2024 is set at 236 million units, with 1H25 estimates at 103 million units, showing an 8% year-over-year growth due to increased demand for the iPhone 16 series [3]. - The forecast for the iPhone 17 series in 2H25 is 85 million units, which is 9% lower than the iPhone 16 series build in 2H24 [3][4]. Production Capacity - India's current production capacity is estimated at 3.5 million units per month, with 22 product lines operational at Foxconn and Tata/Pega sites [10]. - The report highlights that the iPhone's major production site remains in China, which accounts for 80-90% of total production [1]. Product Specifications - Key specifications for the iPhone 17 series include a new slim model, upgraded camera features, and the introduction of in-house components such as the modem and WiFi 7 [3][21]. - The report anticipates the introduction of a foldable iPhone in 2H26, which is expected to feature dual cameras and omit certain technologies like LiDAR [3]. Supplier Insights - Among the supply chain companies, Largan is favored due to its defensive position and solid average selling price (ASP) and market share [4]. - The report provides detailed order allocations for various components and suppliers involved in the iPhone 16 series, indicating significant reliance on companies like TSMC for processors and Sony for camera sensors [25][27].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Sany Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. is Overweight, indicating that the stock's total return is expected to exceed the average total return of the industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a modest revenue miss in 4Q24, with a year-over-year revenue increase of 8%, primarily due to lower-than-expected sales in concrete machinery and excavators. However, net profit increased by 131% year-over-year, driven by a decline in selling expenses and non-operating income [5][6]. - The company is viewed as a key beneficiary of China's economic recovery and global expansion in 2025, despite facing some challenges from tariffs affecting approximately 5% of its revenue exposure to the U.S. [5]. Financial Summary - For FY24, revenue is projected to increase by 6% to Rmb78 billion, with net profit expected to reach Rmb5.84 billion, reflecting a 30% increase year-over-year [5]. - The report provides detailed financial metrics, including an EPS forecast of Rmb0.69 for FY24, with a projected increase to Rmb1.28 by FY26 [2]. - The gross profit margin for 4Q24 was reported at 22%, a decrease of 7 percentage points year-over-year, but the core business gross profit margin is expected to improve to 28% in 2024 when excluding GAAP effects [5][6]. Price Target and Market Metrics - The price target for Sany Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. is set at Rmb24.00, representing a 25% upside from the closing price of Rmb19.19 on April 18, 2025 [2]. - The company has a market capitalization of Rmb162.84 billion and an average daily trading value of Rmb1.088 billion [2].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In-Line" for Hong Kong/China Transportation & Infrastructure [5] Core Insights - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 1.7% week-over-week for the week ending April 18, 2025, compared to a 0.1% increase in the previous week, indicating a potential negative impact on COSCO Shipping Holdings' revenues and profits [8] - The SCFI is viewed as a leading indicator of actual shipping rates, which are correlated with the stock performance of COSCO Shipping Holdings [8] - Changes in shipping rates for various routes include a decrease of 2.9% for European routes, an increase of 0.8% for Mediterranean routes, a decrease of 4.5% for US West Coast routes, and minor increases for Southeast Asia and South America routes [8] Summary by Sections - **Industry Overview**: The report focuses on the container shipping sector within the Asia Pacific region, particularly analyzing COSCO Shipping Holdings in relation to the SCFI [4][60] - **Market Performance**: The SCFI's recent performance reflects a downward trend, which may adversely affect the financial outlook for COSCO Shipping Holdings [8] - **Stock Performance Correlation**: The report emphasizes the correlation between SCFI movements and COSCO Shipping Holdings' stock performance, suggesting that fluctuations in shipping rates directly influence the company's market valuation [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" (OW) rating to key companies including NTES, TME, and Tongcheng, indicating a preference for these defensive names amid macroeconomic uncertainties [21]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic team has revised the GDP growth forecast for China down by 30 basis points to 4.2% for 2025, primarily due to the impact of US tariffs, which are expected to drag exports by 90 basis points while potential domestic stimulus could provide a 60 basis point lift [2]. - Despite a strong 1Q25 GDP growth of 5.4%, a slowdown to below 4.5% is anticipated in 2Q and 3Q as tariff impacts materialize [2]. - The report highlights resilient travel demand and suggests that domestic consumption stimulus will benefit Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) like TCOM and Tongcheng, with Tongcheng being the preferred investment choice due to its focus on domestic demand and lower-tier cities [6][21]. Summary by Sections Gaming - The gaming industry is viewed as a safe haven with low correlation to macroeconomic factors and no tariff impact. Key players like NTES are expected to perform well, with strong titles offsetting any underperformance from others [4]. Music - TME is projected to achieve a revenue growth target of 9-10% for the full year, with limited downside risk from tariffs due to its relatively inelastic average revenue per user (ARPU) of approximately RMB 12 per month [5]. Travel - The report anticipates government stimulus plans to support the travel sector, particularly through the extension of trade-in programs to services like travel. OTAs are well-positioned to benefit, with Tongcheng favored for its margin expansion potential and strategic acquisitions [6][21]. Consumer Insights - The AlphaWise survey indicates that while overall consumption may face pressure, sectors like online gaming, music, and livestreaming are likely to remain unaffected. Travel intentions are strong, although the shopping budget per traveler is declining [3]. Financial Projections - For Tongcheng, 1Q25 revenue is expected to show significant year-over-year growth across various service segments, with accommodation reservation services projected to grow by 23% and transportation ticketing services by 14% [24].

Investment Rating - Stock Rating: Overweight [6] - Industry View: Attractive [6] - Price Target: Rmb122.00 [6] Core Insights - Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co Ltd reported robust results for 4Q24, with a net profit of Rmb455 million, reflecting a 23.6% quarter-on-quarter and 12.2% year-on-year increase [9] - The company aims for 20-30% year-on-year revenue and shipment growth in FY25, with overseas sales projected to exceed Rmb1 billion [9][3] - The company is expanding its production capabilities, including plans for a factory in the US to meet localized procurement demands [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY24 net profit was Rmb1.47 billion, up 22.6% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 27.3% in 4Q24, an increase of 3.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [9] - The FY24 dividend was Rmb2 per share, yielding 1.8% with a payout ratio of 36.9% [9] Market Expansion - Overseas sales are targeted to grow significantly, from Rmb574 million in 2024 to over Rmb1 billion in 2025 [3] - The Germany factory is expected to become profitable in 2Q25, while the US and Malaysia factories are anticipated to start generating sales in 2026 [3] Product Development - Kedali is focusing on humanoid robots as a significant industrial opportunity and is expanding its reducer capacity based on customer demand [4] - The company has initiated R&D on products beyond reducers, indicating a diversification strategy [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Sieyuan Electric with a price target of Rmb 85.00 by December 2025 [19][27]. Core Insights - Sieyuan Electric's FY24 results were in line with expectations, with new orders guidance for FY25 projected to grow by 25%, which is above consensus estimates of approximately 20% [2][3]. - The company experienced a significant increase in overseas revenue, which grew by approximately 45% year-on-year, contributing positively to overall growth [2][4]. - Despite strong financial performance, there are concerns regarding the management's decision to limit disclosures about its by-product segments for FY24, which raises questions about transparency [2][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - New orders for FY24 grew by approximately 30% year-on-year to around Rmb 21.5 billion, surpassing the target of 25% growth [3]. - Overall revenue growth reached 30% year-on-year in Q4 2024, with overseas revenue increasing by about 50% year-on-year in the second half of 2024 [4]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) improved by 2 percentage points to 31% in 2024, driven by better domestic margins and higher contributions from overseas sales [5]. Expenses and Provisions - Selling expenses rose by 32% year-on-year in 2024, attributed to increased marketing efforts and share options impact [6]. - The company made Rmb 107 million in goodwill provisions in 2024, primarily related to its supercapacitor business [6][10]. Future Guidance - Sieyuan Electric is guiding for a revenue of Rmb 18.5 billion in FY25, reflecting a 20% year-on-year growth expectation [17]. - The company anticipates new orders to reach Rmb 26.8 billion in FY25, maintaining a growth rate of 25% [17]. Market Position and Outlook - Sieyuan Electric is positioned to benefit from China's elevated transmission and distribution capital expenditure, as well as from global trends in transmission capex and transformer shortages [19]. - The report suggests that the market reaction to the company's guidance will likely be positive, given the strong outlook for new orders [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on gold, forecasting prices to reach an average of $3,675/oz by 4Q25 and above $4,000/oz by 2Q26 [2][4][22]. Core Insights - The structural shift in gold demand and geopolitical pricing drivers indicate that $4,000/oz is achievable, supported by continued strong investor and central bank demand [2][4]. - Central banks are expected to purchase around 900 tonnes of gold in 2025, reflecting ongoing diversification from USD reserves amid geopolitical uncertainties [28][60]. - Gold is viewed as an optimal hedge against stagflation, recession, and US policy risks, with increased investor interest expected from ETFs and retail demand, particularly in China [2][56][60]. Summary by Sections Demand and Price Forecast - Gold prices are projected to average $3,675/oz by 4Q25, driven by quarterly net demand averaging around 710 tonnes [4][22]. - A breakeven demand level of approximately 350 tonnes per quarter is necessary to maintain stable gold prices, with every additional 100 tonnes correlating to a 2% increase in price [12][22]. Central Bank Purchases - Central banks have significantly increased their gold purchases, averaging 280 tonnes per quarter since 2022, compared to a pre-2022 average of 120 tonnes [12][28]. - The share of gold in official reserves has risen to nearly 20%, with ongoing diversification expected to continue [28][29]. Investor Demand - Total gold holdings by investors and central banks are estimated to approach a notional value of around $8.8 trillion, highlighting gold's appeal as a safe haven [59][60]. - Investor holdings of gold rose by 3% year-over-year in 2024, with a notional value increase of 31% to approximately $4.2 trillion [56][60]. Silver Outlook - Silver is expected to face challenges in the near term due to industrial demand uncertainties, but a recovery is anticipated in the second half of 2025, with prices projected to rise towards $39/oz by year-end [2][9].

J P M O R G A N To review,Fed interest rate policy isset by theFOMC, which is made up of twelve people: the sevenmembers oftheFed'sBoard of Governors, based inWashington, DC, the president of the NY Fed, and an annually rotating group of four of the 11 remaining regional reserve bank presidents. The seven members of the Board of Governors are nominated by thePresident and confirmed by theSenate.Afull term is 14 years, with one term beginning every two years on even-numbered years. A member who fills an unex ...

Asia Pacific Equity Research 22 April 2025 China Food Delivery Thoughts on JD's entrance: Evaluating impact on market share and financials for Meituan and JD Meituan/JD shares have underperformed the benchmark KWEB in the past month (-19%/-18% vs. -15%) due mostly to investor concerns about JD's aggressive entrance to China's food delivery market and a potential reaction from Meituan, in our view. We expect insignificant change to the current market structure from JD's entrance, where Meituan/Ele.me hold a ...