Investment Rating - The industry view is rated as In-Line [5] Core Insights - Strong AI capital expenditure (capex) guidance from major cloud service providers (CSPs) indicates robust demand, with the top four hyperscalers expected to allocate a total of US$325 billion in capex for calendar year 2025 [2][10] - The production capacity of the GB300 server rack is critical to meet the anticipated demand, with estimates suggesting that only 5,000 to 10,000 units will be available in the first half of 2025, fulfilling only US$15 billion to US$30 billion of AI capex [2][4] - The total addressable market (TAM) for AI servers in 2025 is projected to be around US$160 billion, representing a 50% share of the total capex [2][9] Summary by Sections AI Capex and Demand - Major CSPs like Meta, Microsoft, and Google report that AI customer demand continues to exceed their data center capacity, which is favorable for AI server chip demand [2][10] - Meta has increased its capex to US$64-72 billion, while Microsoft is shifting more of its capex towards server systems, indicating a trend towards short-lived assets like CPU/GPU servers [10][11] Supply Chain and Production - The GB300 server rack's output in the second half of 2025 is deemed critical, with a need for total NVL72 server rack production to reach 30,000 units to fulfill approximately US$100 billion of AI capex [2][4] - TSMC is expected to produce at least 5 million units of Blackwell chips in 2025, which is essential for meeting the demand [2][4] Chip Development and Innovations - There is ongoing activity in 3nm AI ASIC design, with MediaTek and other companies working on new chips to address strong demand, particularly from China [7][24] - Nvidia's new B30 chip is being developed to cater to China's AI inference demand, while the 3nm TPU design for Google is expected to tape out in July 2025 [7][24] Financial Projections - The top four US hyperscalers are projected to generate US$550 billion in operating cash flow in 2025, supporting ongoing capex growth [9][12] - Depreciation as a percentage of total expenses is expected to rise, reflecting increased investment in data centers, with projections of 10-14% in 2025 [12][19] Market Trends - The AI supply chain is experiencing bottlenecks, particularly in Asia, which could impact the timely fulfillment of demand [8][9] - The report highlights a significant year-over-year growth in cloud capex, with a forecast of 40% growth in 2025, up from a prior estimate of 31% [19][20]

May 5, 2025 10:16 PM GMT M Idea Tracking China's Semi Localization | Asia Pacific Gauging domestic AI GPU self- sufficiency We summarize recent news flow and our industry checks regarding China's progress in semi localization. We estimate China AI GPU self-sufficiency ratio at 34% in 2024 and expect it to be 82% in 2027. We estimate the TAM of cloud AI to grow at 28% CAGR (2024- 27e) to US$239bn in 2027 (link), and China to account for 20% of the total, around US$48bn in 2027, given strong demand of inferen ...

May 5, 2025 02:07 AM GMT Exhibit 1: Asian refiners have either consistently outperformed or performed in- line with regional benchmarks since 2015 0.0 2.8 5.6 8.4 11.2 14.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 (US$/bbl) Singapore Complex Benchmark GRM Asia Refiners Average Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+ Mayank Maheshwari Equity Analyst Mayank.Maheshwari@morganstanley.com +65 6834-6719 Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+ ...

| M | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | Foundation | | May 5, 2025 09:00 PM GMT | | | | China Equity Strategy Asia Pacific | Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ | | | | Chloe Liu | | | | Equity Strategist | | | Positions of Active Long-only | Chloe.Liu1@morganstanley.com Laura Wang | +852 2848-5497 | | | Equity Strategist | | | Managers in China/HK | Laura.Wang@morganstanley.com | +852 2848-6853 | | | Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+ | | | | Kristal Ji | | | Chinese equities saw a meaningful US$5.3bn outflow from ...

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ May 5, 2025 09:00 PM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific M Foundation China Equity Strategy: How to Position in the Reciprocal Era Laura Wang Equity Strategist Laura.Wang@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6853 Chloe Liu Equity Strategist Chloe.Liu1@morganstanley.com +852 2848-5497 Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the ...

May 5, 2025 09:01 PM GMT China Emerging Frontiers Frontier 28: Investing in Evolving Trends We continue our China Emerging Frontiers series with the introduction of our six-factor framework to understand the successful ingredients underpinning the industrial upgrade story and identify future investment opportunities. Key Takeaways Investors interested in exploring new emerging sectors where China is poised to have structural competitive advantages should consider reading this report. This report outlines ho ...

May 5, 2025 09:00 PM GMT Asia Technology | Asia Pacific M Idea China 1H25 CIO Survey – Spending Cuts Worsen China CIOs' view on near-term spending has fallen to a new low with long-term expectations seeing only marginal improvements. AI is the top priority with adoption accelerating. We offer views on key IT spending trends and stock positioning. M Key Takeaways AlphaWise survey Investment implications Most preferred Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Gary Yu Equity Analyst Gary.Yu@morganstanley.com +852 2848-691 ...

在企业、资本和政府的大力支持下，人形机器人行业正在迅 速发展。我们预计到2050年全球市场规模将达到5万亿美元， 在本报告中，我们探讨了产业链上的最佳商业模式和投资机 会。 要点 全球人形机器人潜在市场规模 – 到2050年将达到5 万亿美元：我们的美国研究团队建立了摩根士丹利 的全球人形机器人TAM模型，该模型预测全球人形 机器人市场将超过全球汽车行业。我们预计到2050 年全球人形机器人销售额将达到 4.7 万亿美元，大 概是全球 20 家最大汽车厂商 2024 年总收入的两 倍，而这一数字在未来25年内很可能会大幅减少。 April 30, 2025 06:46 AM GMT 人形机器人 价值5万亿美元的全球市场 This translated report is made available for convenience only and is excerpted from the original research report published in English. In the event of any discrepancy between the translation and the ...

May 2, 2025 11:12 AM GMT Asia/Pacific Weekly Preview | Asia Pacific M Update Weaker China April Exports; BNM on Hold Key Takeaways Australia • Building Approvals: We expect building approvals to increase 1.5%M/ 25.5%Y in March. Annualized approvals likely reached ~202k, the strongest since 2022. China Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+ Derrick Y Kam Asia Economist Derrick.Kam@morganstanley.com +65 6834-8272 Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Robin Xing Chief China Economist Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com +852 28 ...

May 2, 2025 03:39 AM GMT 亚洲经济研究 | Asia Pacific 目前情况如何？ M Idea 观点：回答您关于关税、贸易 和贸易紧张局势的问题 在本报告中，我们回答了投资者的主要问题，包括哪些高频 指标已经告诉我们有关关税的影响，我们如何看待关税路径 的演变，以及我们如何评估关税对增长前景的影响。 我们将走向何方？ 要点 This translated report is made available for convenience only and is based on the original research report published in English. In the event of any discrepancy between the translation and the original research report, the content in the original research report will prevail. The original research report can be found here: Asia Econo ...