May 7, 2025 03:51 AM GMT China Economics | Asia Pacific Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Beijing Eased Monetary Policy Surprisingly Ahead Of US-China Talks PBoC introduced a new round of monetary easing package today (May 7), slightly beating market expectations, and indicated room for further easing as needed. This reflects Beijing's intention to support its domestic market confidence ahead of US- China negotiations. Key measures include: The accelerated monetary easing should facilitate front-loading of existi ...

May 7, 2025 03:15 AM GMT China Economics | Asia Pacific Morgan Stanley Asia Limited US-China to Start Trade Talks; We Expect Gradual Tariff De- escalation China confirmed that Vice Premier He Lifeng will meet with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during his visit to Switzerland on May 9-12. A spokesman in Beijing said this is in response to senior US officials' recent talks about potential adjustment to tariff policies. This would mark the first high-level US-China official talks since US tariff escalati ...

May 5, 2025 09:00 PM GMT Greater China Semiconductors | Asia Pacific Cloud semis: Heading into the 2H25 trough M Recent developments in the cloud semis space mean our conservative stance holds near-term, but we maintain our view that the cycle could trough in 2H25. Key Takeaways China CIO survey suggests potential downside in 2H25: China cloud capex tends to play catch-up in the late phase of a cloud capex upturn or even in a downturn (link). Our recent CIO survey points to datacenter build-out as a top spe ...

AI and Manufacturing: An Odd Yet Perfect Couple AI diffusion makes it necessary to re-shore manufacturing. At the same time, AI diffusion makes it possible to re-shore manufacturing. In this way, AI is both the cause and the effect of a US manufacturing revival. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's recent visit to the White House highlighted the seemingly strange yet absolutely essential relationship between AI and manufacturing. Mr. Huang's May 1st impromptu remarks on US manufacturing captured much of the spirit of ...

May 6, 2025 08:03 AM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific M Foundation What's Next for Tariffs and Stimulus? Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Robin Xing Chief China Economist Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6511 For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. M China's Growth to Slow to 4.2% in 2025 amid Tariff Shock Growth to soften meaningfully in Q2-Q3 Deflation pressure will remain persistent 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6. ...

May 6, 2025 04:05 AM GMT 中国的新兴前沿⸺数据中心 中国版的赋能AI 我们更新了对中国数据中心行业供需的判断以及分析了 GPU 供应风险⸺我们认为市场过度担忧，我们更看好中国的数据 中心行业。 要点 主要基本主题：DC需求的上行周期与利率下行周期同时出现，通过REIT实现存量 数据中心资产盘活。 中国互联网大厂对AI的投资应该会给上游IDC带来显著的上行空间：我们估计，未 来三年中国六大互联网和云服务提供商（CSP）的年度资本支出将增加59％，达到 人民币3730亿元（超过500亿美元）。 我们预计，未来三年新数据中心的平均新增订单将达到每年 3-4 吉瓦（2024 年约 为 2 吉瓦），存量复合年增长率为 20％。 我们在未来1-2年的时间里强烈看好中国北方市场，因为AI训练和推理需求集中于 该地区，而且供应相对紧俏。 GPU供应可能成为瓶颈...我们与大中华区半导体分析师詹家鸿（Charlie Chan）合 作进行了情境分析。在我们的悲观情境中，芯片短缺可能会严重阻碍中国AI数据 中心的发展。 ...但在我们的基准情境下，国产GPU就已足够：我们假设即使英伟达无法获得向中 国出售H ...

Meera Chandan AC (44-20) 7134-2924 meera.chandan@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Arindam Sandilya AC (65) 6882-7759 arindam.x.sandilya@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch Our bearish USD view thus far has not been motivated by expectations of any such accords; it is instead explained by underlying fundamentals — both cyclical and possibly structural. The USD weakness year-to-date thus far has been European-led and has not needed any such accords. The moti- vation for USD weaknes ...

May 6, 2025 08:32 AM GMT 亚洲科技 | Asia Pacific 科技脉动⸺没有美国芯片中 国能行吗？ 华为推出了一种新的AI计算机架系统CloudMatrix 384超节点， 可以与世界上最好的AI基础设施技术相媲美。这也许可以让中 国解决其计算能力瓶颈，在不依赖西方的情况下训练自己的 模型，并为下一波AI创新提供动力。 中国AI硬件的突破⸺新的AI加速器和机架级架构：华为的CloudMatrix 384超节点 是基于384颗华为Ascend 910C AI芯片构建的机架级系统。虽然在单芯片性能方面 落后，但在系统性能方面与GB200 NVL72相当，计算能力为300 PFLOPS（千万亿 次），超过英伟达NVL72系统的180 PFLOPS。创新更多是在系统层面，包括网 络、光学和软件层，但与英伟达Blackwell芯片相比是需要五倍数量的Ascend芯片 来抵消性能差距。华为已经与硅基流动等中国AI基础设施公司合作实施 了CloudMatrix 384超节点，以支持DeepSeek-R1。 为何重要：这解决了中国独特的制约因素⸺出口管制和晶圆供应⸺但也发挥了 其规模和强大实力的可 ...

Hardware & Networking Cloud Capex Wrap-up: Robust Investment Momentum Continues, Contrary to Concerns Around Slowdown and Tariff Impact J P M O R G A N Meta, Microsoft and Google reported strong capex growth in the Mar-Q, with the three US Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) together reporting strong double-digit growth year-over-year in aggregate (+60% y/y). Importantly, the raised full-year outlook from Meta, the reiterated fiscal 2H outlook from Microsoft, and the reiterated full-year outlook from Google impl ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [7][12]. Core Insights - The Energy Sensitive basket has seen a significant decline, moving from outperforming to the worst-performing category due to a sharp decline in energy prices [7]. - Tariff-sensitive baskets, particularly those related to the US and China, have underperformed the market amid ongoing tariff escalations. A potential trade deal could lead to significant mean reversion in these themes [12]. - Policy-sensitive themes have experienced notable movements since the election, with specific mention of the DOGE/Fiscal Tightening basket as a favorable risk/reward opportunity [12]. - The Europe Defense sector has outperformed the S&P 500 by 46% since the US election, while US Aerospace & Defense has underperformed by 37%, indicating a potential investment opportunity in the latter [12]. - The Momentum Factor is currently favoring defensives and low volatility stocks, suggesting a pair trade opportunity between Long AI/Data Center and Short Low Vol Aristocrats [12]. Summary by Sections Tariff Sensitive Baskets - The report identifies various tariff-sensitive baskets, including those for the US, China, Europe, and Mexico, highlighting their vulnerability to tariff-related policy actions [17][21][26][43]. - A list of companies with high overseas revenue exposure (>30%) is provided, indicating their sensitivity to US tariffs [21][31]. Sector Performance - The report discusses the performance of different sectors, noting that the US Defense sector and the EU Defense sector have distinct performance metrics, with the EU sector benefiting from recent policy headlines [12][81][86]. - The report also highlights the potential beneficiaries of the Green/EV/Climate provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act, focusing on companies in the Industrials, Technology, and Utilities sectors [67]. Consumer Exposure - The report emphasizes the impact of the cost-of-living crisis on low-end consumers, identifying stocks that are at risk of underperforming due to this demographic's financial pressures [80]. Government and Policy Impacts - The report outlines the potential effects of government spending cuts and efficiency improvements on specific stocks, particularly in the defense and industrial sectors [62][71].