Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the oil market but discusses potential risks and impacts of sanctions on oil prices and demand. Core Insights - President Trump has issued a 50-day ultimatum to Russia regarding a ceasefire in Ukraine, threatening 100% secondary tariffs on Russian oil exports if no agreement is reached [4] - The proposed sanctions bill aims to impose tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil, primarily targeting China and India, which account for 60% of Russian oil purchases [2][16] - The enforcement of high tariffs could lead to significant supply shocks in the oil market due to the scale of Russian exports and limited OPEC spare capacity [4][20] - The report suggests that if implemented, the sanctions may include lower headline tariffs or significant carve-outs to mitigate economic impacts [9][19] Summary by Sections Sanctions and Tariffs - The proposed legislation has bipartisan support in Congress, aiming for passage before the August recess [5] - The sanctions bill targets entire countries rather than individual companies, imposing punitive duties on all exports to the US from countries buying Russian oil [7] - The bill's credibility is questioned due to the challenges in halting Russian oil trade and the West's reluctance to impose comprehensive bans [6] Market Implications - Financial markets have largely ignored the potential impact of renewed tariffs, viewing them as negotiating tactics [11] - The oil market may not have the same luxury, as the proposed legislation could trigger an immediate oil price shock similar to past events [12] - The report highlights that Russian oil volumes are significant enough that even OPEC may struggle to substitute them if sanctions are enforced [20] Supply and Demand Forecasts - The report includes detailed forecasts for global oil supply and demand for 2024, 2025, and 2026, indicating a gradual increase in both demand and supply over the years [22][23][24] - For 2024, total oil demand is projected to reach 104.4 million barrels per day (mbd) while total oil supply is expected to be 103.7 mbd, indicating a slight surplus [22] - By 2025, total oil demand is forecasted to increase to 105.2 mbd, with supply reaching 106.1 mbd, suggesting a tightening market [23] Price Forecasts - J.P. Morgan's crude oil price forecasts indicate an average Brent price of $82 per barrel for 2024, with a gradual decline expected in subsequent years [27]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Attractive [5][31]. Core Insights - New wind installations in China reached 46GW from January to May 2025, representing a 134% year-over-year increase, with May alone accounting for 26.5GW [5][8]. - Wind turbine public tenders totaled 61GW in the first half of 2025, with 49GW for onshore and 12GW for offshore, marking a 17% year-over-year increase [8]. - The average onshore wind turbine (WTG) ASP (tower excluded) was Rmb1,474/kW, up 4% year-over-year but down 11% month-over-month; offshore WTG ASP (tower included) averaged Rmb2,957/kW, down 13% month-over-month [8]. - As of the end of June 2025, 19.2GW of offshore wind projects were under construction, with 2.5GW newly commissioned year-to-date [8]. Summary by Sections Wind Power Installations - New wind installations were 46GW from January to May 2025, up 134% year-over-year, with May recording 26.5GW [5][8]. Tender and Pricing Overview - Wind turbine public tenders were 61GW in 1H25, with 49GW onshore and 12GW offshore, up 17% year-over-year [8]. - Onshore WTG ASP (tower excluded) averaged Rmb1,474/kW, up 4% year-over-year, while offshore WTG (tower included) averaged Rmb2,957/kW, down 13% month-over-month [8]. Project Development - Offshore wind projects: 19.2GW under construction as of end June, and 2.5GW newly commissioned year-to-date [8].

中国 证券研究 2025 年 7 月 16 日 中国生成式人工智能 量化 H20 恢复供应对于近期财务的影响 我们认为，H20 若恢复供应将逐渐利好中国的 IAAS 价值链，尤其是 云运营商和服务器制造商。不过，我们认为恢复供应不会从根本上改 变中国生成式人工智能（AI）的发展进程，原因包括：1) 4 月初宣布 的 H20 出口限制并未导致全行业供应受限，因为过去几个季度超大 规模云厂商储备了 AI 芯片；2) 自 2025 年 1 月 DeepSeek 大语言模型 套件发布以来，GPU 算力需求和 AI 功能使用量增长温和，而非成倍 增长。因此，我们认为 H20 恢复供应不会导致对于未来几个季度的 收入预测出现大幅调整。相反，我们认为 H20 恢复供应将导致未来 几个季度云运营商的资本支出稳定增长，这是影响投资者对于该行业 看法的另一个财务指标。就中国生成式 AI 价值链而言，我们的优选 股为阿里巴巴、金山云和华勤技术。 对于生成式 AI 功能的需求增长温和，并非成倍增长，尤其是在外 部公有云客户中，原因是缺乏杀手级生成式 AI 原生应用。根据我 们的观察，生成式 AI 应用开发商（即字节跳动、腾讯和百度） ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bearish outlook on the US dollar, suggesting a long-term downward trend has begun and may be more than halfway through [1][2]. Core Insights - The US dollar, after a 15-year bull market, is facing downward pressure due to a 4% current account deficit and slowing economic growth [1][2]. - European stocks benefiting from a stronger euro are outperforming the broader European index, while many companies are facing earnings downgrades due to local currency weakness [1][3]. - Companies with significant dollar exposure or those affected by emerging market currency weakness are particularly vulnerable, with over half of the European index companies impacted [3]. - Utility, real estate, and banking sectors are performing exceptionally well, consistently reaching new highs [1][3]. - Companies are advised to adjust their foreign exchange hedging strategies to mitigate risks in a volatile market [4]. - The consensus forecast for European earnings growth is close to 1%, but currency fluctuations may lead to local currency losses; however, growth calculated at fixed exchange rates or in USD shows a 7.6% increase [5]. Summary by Sections Dollar Market Outlook - The US dollar is at a historical high but is expected to decline due to economic factors, including a projected drop in growth and a current account deficit [2]. European Market Impact - The strong euro has positively impacted a small segment of European stocks, which are outperforming the index, while many companies are facing earnings risks due to currency fluctuations [3]. Hedging Strategies - Companies should implement flexible hedging strategies, including setting ranges for hedging ratios and utilizing various financial instruments to adapt to market volatility [4]. Earnings Growth in Europe - European earnings growth is projected at 1%, with potential local currency losses due to exchange rate changes, but a 7.6% increase is noted when calculated in fixed rates or USD [5].

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the investment rating for the Korean market is currently underweight, reflecting lower valuations compared to peers and a need for earnings growth to broaden out [14][16]. Core Insights - The Korean market is characterized by its cyclical nature, heavily influenced by both the US and China markets, with a constant coupling and decoupling dynamic [11][32]. - The KOSPI index has shown significant sectoral performance variations, with IT and Financials leading the market, while other sectors like Materials and Consumer Discretionary have underperformed [20][23]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in domestic demand starting from the second half of 2025, with an expected GDP growth of 1.1% for the year [33][34]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The KOSPI has experienced a year-to-date performance of 32.4% in 2025, recovering from a -9.6% performance in 2024 [18][26]. - Foreign investors have been net sellers in 2025 but have shown net buying activity since May [26][29]. Sector Analysis - The IT sector constitutes 36% of the KOSPI index and has performed well with a 32.4% increase year-to-date [20]. - The Financials sector has also shown strong performance, with a year-to-date increase of 49.4% [20]. - In contrast, the Materials sector has seen a decline of 41.2% in 2024, indicating significant volatility [20]. Economic Indicators - The report highlights that Korea continues to trade at lower valuations compared to Japan and China, with a focus on improving return on equity (ROE) [14][16]. - The Bank of Korea has lowered the policy rate to 2.5% and is expected to implement a larger supplementary budget in the second half of 2025 [37][38]. Earnings Growth - Earnings growth needs to broaden out, with the current consensus operating profit growth for the KOSPI at 10.0% for 2025, which is below historical averages [23][44]. - The report notes that consensus earnings are being adjusted down, reflecting a cautious outlook for the upcoming periods [44][46].

Investment Rating - The report provides a forecast for various asset classes, indicating a bearish outlook for equities and a mixed outlook for fixed income and commodities [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant expected returns and volatility across different asset classes for Q2 2026, with equities showing a range of potential returns from -20.7% to 24.4% depending on market conditions [2]. - The report notes that the S&P 500 is forecasted to have a base case return of 4.7% with a volatility of 19% [2]. - Commodities, particularly Brent and Copper, are expected to have substantial volatility, with Brent showing a potential return range from -23.6% to 83.4% [2]. Summary by Sections Equities - S&P 500: Bear case -20.7%, Base case 4.7%, Bull case 15.9% [2] - MSCI Europe: Bear case -22.3%, Base case 7.3%, Bull case 24.4% [2] - Topix: Bear case -23.3%, Base case 5.0%, Bull case 17.3% [2] - MSCI EM: Bear case -26.7%, Base case 0.1%, Bull case 13.1% [2] Fixed Income - UST 10yr: Bear case 7.6%, Base case 12.1%, Bull case 17.2% [2] - US IG: Bear case -2.9%, Base case -0.1%, Bull case 1.2% [2] - US HY: Bear case -4.3%, Base case 0.1%, Bull case 2.1% [2] Commodities - Brent: Bear case -23.6%, Base case -8.3%, Bull case 83.4% [2] - Copper: Bear case -21.6%, Base case -4.3%, Bull case 14.8% [2] - Gold: Bear case -20.6%, Base case -6.5%, Bull case 12.3% [2] Currency - JPY/USD: Bear case 14.9%, Base case 7.6%, Bull case -2.5% [2] - EUR/USD: Bear case -5.4%, Base case 3.9%, Bull case 8.2% [2] - GBP/USD: Bear case -1.3%, Base case 6.0%, Bull case 10.4% [2]

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Economic Research 15 July 2025 China: 2Q GDP came in modestly above expectations Structural imbalances overshadow growth concerns in the near term China's 2Q GDP report came in better than expected. Real GDP growth was regsitered at 5.2%oya (JPM and consensus: 5.1%oya), which translated into sequential growth of 4.1%q/q saar (vs. 5.6%q/q saar in 1Q). This is not surprising, as we have warned of a risk bias to the upside to our 2Q growth forecast. In nominal terms, GDP growth dec ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the second half of 2025, expecting real GDP growth to slip below 4.5% year-on-year [3][9]. Core Insights - The divergence between real and nominal GDP has widened, with real GDP growth at 5.2% year-on-year in Q2, supported by front-loaded production and strong fiscal support, while nominal GDP fell to 3.9% year-on-year due to deepening deflation [2][9]. - Growth is anticipated to slow in the second half of 2025 due to weaker exports, fading fiscal impulse, and a continued deflation feedback loop [3][9]. - The report suggests that deflation is likely to persist, with a modest fiscal stimulus package of Rmb0.5-1 trillion expected in September/October, but this may not effectively address the underlying issues [4][9]. Summary by Sections Economic Performance - Q2 GDP growth was better than expected at 5.2% year-on-year, driven by fiscal and export front-loading [9]. - Nominal GDP year-on-year dropped by 0.7 percentage points to 3.9%, marking the first growth below 4% since COVID-19 [2][9]. Sector Analysis - Industrial production showed a year-on-year increase of 6.8% in June, with manufacturing up by 7.4% [6]. - Fixed asset investment year-to-date growth was 2.8%, with manufacturing investment at 5.1% and infrastructure at 5.3% [6]. - The property sector continues to struggle, with sales down by 7.2% and new starts down by 13.1% year-on-year [6]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a slowdown in growth to below 4.5% year-on-year in the second half of 2025 due to various factors including weaker global trade and continued deflation [3][9]. - June activity indicators show reduced transshipment and weaker retail sales, indicating a deepening drag from the housing sector [3][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on US stocks, Treasuries, and US IG Corporate Credit, while expressing caution towards the USD [3][4]. Core Insights - The US labor market is gradually cooling, with real GDP growth expected to decline from 2.5% in 2024 to 0.9% in 2025, and global growth projected to decrease from 3.5% to 2.5% in the same period [2][7]. - Despite a slowing global economy, risk assets may perform well as markets adjust to less negative growth expectations, with a focus on quality investments [2][3]. - The report highlights a preference for quality cyclicals, large caps, and defensives in the US, while recommending sectors such as defense, banks, software, telecoms, and diversified financials in Europe [5][6]. Economic Outlook - The report forecasts a step-down in global growth due to tariff impacts and immigration restrictions, with specific GDP growth estimates for 2025: Global at 2.5%, US at 0.9%, Euro Area at 0.8%, Japan at 0.3%, and Emerging Markets at 3.8% [8][12]. - Inflation is expected to peak in the US in Q3 2025, with projections of 2.9% for the US and 1.9% for the Euro Area in 2025 [8][12]. Sector Recommendations - In the US, the report favors quality cyclicals and defensives with lower leverage and cheaper valuations, while in Japan, it supports domestic reflation beneficiaries and defense-related spending [5][6]. - European recommendations include repositioning into resilient sectors, particularly defense and financials, while in Emerging Markets, the focus is on financials and domestic businesses [5][6]. Credit Market Insights - Credit quality is expected to hold up despite macroeconomic challenges, with a recommendation to focus on higher quality assets and CDX hedges [21][22]. - The report anticipates strong total returns in credit markets, with Bs/CCCs expected to decompress relative to BBs [21][22].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - Asia's international investment position has doubled to US$46 trillion over the last 13 years, with a significant portion allocated to US assets [5][8]. - The report discusses the ongoing debate regarding whether Asian investors should diversify their holdings away from the US, especially in light of recent USD depreciation [5][6]. - Concerns about the US macroeconomic outlook, including high fiscal and current account deficits, have led to increased discussions among investors about rebalancing their portfolios [5][6][7]. Summary by Sections Current Investment Position - Asia's gross international investment position (GIIP) has reached US$46 trillion as of Q1 2025, with US assets accounting for 41% of Asia's holdings [5][8]. - The securities portfolio within Asia's GIIP is valued at US$21 trillion, with US holdings slightly increasing to US$8.6 trillion in Q1 2025 [8][9]. Diversification Decisions - Asian investors face three key decisions: whether to diversify current US asset holdings, how much to allocate to the US from their annual current account surplus, and whether to hedge their positions in US assets [8][37]. - The share of US assets in Asia's securities portfolio has slightly declined from 41.5% in Q4 2024 to 40.8% in Q1 2025, indicating a potential shift in investment strategy [37][40]. Hedging Strategies - There has been a rise in demand for hedging among Asian investors, which has contributed to the strength of Asian currencies against the USD [54][55]. - Taiwanese life insurance companies have been observed to reduce their FX hedge ratios until Q1 2025, but there are indications of increased hedging activity in Q2 2025 [54][55].