May 5, 2025 09:00 PM GMT China IT Services and Software | Asia Pacific China CIO 1H25 Survey: Tariffs make "worst" even worse; AI is sole bright spot M We believe the bottom is yet to come for China's software industry. We reiterate our Cautious industry view and do not expect downcycle to turn around until a year after deflation ends (late cycle). Key Takeaways Enterprise confidence struggling to recover. We note our AlphaWise 1H25 China CIO survey was conducted during March 24th – April 7th, six months af ...

May 5, 2025 09:00 PM GMT Asia EM Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific Flows & Positioning Guide In the week ended April 30, 2025, EM equity funds recorded outflows of US$1.2bn. In March, GEM long-only managers increased overweights in Brazil and Korea, reduced underweight in China, funded by adding to India underweight and cutting South Africa overweight. EM weekly flows – Outflows from region led by China but partially offset by India, Brazil, Korea and Taiwan: For the past week (ended April 30, 2025), EM equity ...

May 5, 2025 09:00 PM GMT China – Film | Asia Pacific Reducing 2025 Industry Outlook | M | | | | --- | --- | --- | | May 5, 2025 09:00 PM GMT | | Idea | | China – Film Asia Pacific | Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Rebecca Xu | | | | Equity Analyst | | | Reducing 2025 Industry | Rebecca.Xu@morganstanley.com | +852 2848-7359 | | | Gary Yu | | | | Equity Analyst | | | Outlook | Gary.Yu@morganstanley.com | +852 2848-6918 | | | Greater China Media | | Asia Pacific Industry View In-Line | | | | Company | Ticker | Ra ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for domestic exposures such as Banks, Telcos, Real Estate, Utilities, and domestic Consumer Staples, while being cautious on global trade-exposed markets like Taiwan and South Korea [14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the weakening US dollar is favoring emerging market (EM) currencies, leading to a favorable environment for markets and companies with higher local currency revenues [3][7]. - It emphasizes a preference for domestic-oriented markets, particularly India, Singapore, and the Philippines, due to their resilience against currency fluctuations [14]. - The report identifies sectors that historically outperform in a weaker dollar environment, such as Materials and Energy, while suggesting a focus on defensives and gold miners in the current atypical market conditions [19]. Market Allocation and Performance - The report provides a scorecard for APxJ/EM market allocation, indicating that markets like Brazil, South Africa, Mexico, and Australia have historically outperformed in a weaker dollar environment [19]. - It outlines the estimated upside to base case December 2025 index targets for various markets, with India (SENSEX) projected at 82,000 and Singapore (MSCI Singapore) at 1,900 [30]. - The report includes a focus list of companies with high sensitivity to a weaker USD, such as H World Group and Innovent Biologics, all rated "Overweight" [28][32].

May 7, 2025 04:03 AM GMT 中国思考 | Asia Pacific 外部冲击下的政策抉择 关税已经达⮽了非常高的水平，进一步上ⶍ的空间有限。投资者目⯥主要关注两 点。 二季度中国经济将迎来ⷭⱱ测试。一方面，关税高企，虽然⺎能会开始回落，⺁ 一方面，政策支持也稍显不足。我们预计实际GDP增速将在二季度放缓一个百⮇ 点以上，下ⶐ年随着关税降级和1-1.5万亿人民币的补充预算，其放缓幅度将更ⱶ温 和。 关税假设⸺有所回落但依然高企：我们一直认为中美目⯥的关税水平过高。鉴于 供应链扰ⲁ所带来的高昂成本，一些产品已经得⮽了关税豁免。我们的公共政策 团队认为，金融市场波ⲁ、国内游说以⹖贸易谈⮮多方因素将导致关税逐步降 级。⺁外，据一个隶属于官媒的社交媒体账号称，美国已经就关税问题和中方接 洽，表明了中国对于贸易谈⮮的开放态度。 我们认为，随着贸易谈⮮开启，中美⹙方有望达成ⶖ议来逐步消对彼此的报复 性关税。然而，我们仍假设美国对ⶕ有效关税最终将停留在45%的较高水平，其 中ⴎ括2025年之⯥已有的11%的关税以⹖今年的新增关税。 若中美关税停留在现有水平，则我们今年的GDP增速预测将进一步下行0.5个 ...

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research 04 May 2025 J.P. Morgan MedTech What to Expect in the Week Ahead: Who Will Beat, Who Will Miss? MedTech earnings continue this week with ZBH as the only large-cap and BVS, Medical Supplies & Devices CBLL, CVRX, ENOV, HAE, IART, INSP, TMCI, TMDX, PODD, and SKIN on the SMid-cap side. In the comments below we've tried to summarize our thoughts and expectations going into some of the more consequential names. In addition, click here for a summary of each company's h ...

Potash prices rise modestly. SE-Asia MOP prices were +$5/t to $335-355/t cfr WoW while Pupuk still has to award its MOP tender post various suppliers rejecting its second counterbid of $338/t cfr (while most suppliers are looking for $360/t cfr and more). US NoLa MOP prices were +$2/st to $315-320/st fob as the market is relatively quiet post the tariff exemptions, and farmers are overall well-covered for spring season needs; summer fills typically start in June. NW-EU MOP prices stable at €340-360/t cif Wo ...

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research 04 May 2025 Iron ore Price resilience amidst global turmoil; maintain $100/t for 2025 Key takeaways from our iron ore sector review: 1) Global steel output has started the year relatively flat, with output down 0.4% in Q1 (China +0.6% / RoW -1.7%); following GDP growth cuts from our Economics Team, we now expect global steel production to fall 5Mt in 2025 from 20Mt growth previously (China unchanged at -1.5% YoY), 2) Iron ore supply has been disrupted through Q1 follow ...

May 4, 2025 10:00 PM GMT China Property | Asia Pacific Faster Home Prices Decline in April amid Increased Listings Secondary home prices in major cities recorded faster m-m declines amid softened transactions and higher listings. With the impact of tariffs likely to weigh on home sales and house prices, exacerbating already weaker sentiment, we suggest being Related reports: defensive and selective on SOEs with good visibility. April transaction home prices posted accelerated decline, as expected, dropping ...

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Economic Research 04 May 2025 China monthly data outlook When economic recovery meets tariff tsunami China's 1Q GDP and March activity data pointed at a solid growth momentum. Real GDP grew 5.4%oya in 1Q on a solid 6.6%q/q saar expansion (after a strong recovery of 7.6%q/q saar in 4Q). The details of March activity data generally beat expectations. On the production side, IP came in notably above expectations, rising 7.7%oya on a 0.7%m/m sa gain. On the demand side, retail sales ...