wo[Table_Title] Research Report 13 Aug 2025 中国电子 China (Overseas) Technology 全球科技业绩快报：CoreWeave 2Q25 CoreWeave Q2: AI Demand Fuels Hypergrowth, Profitability Path Hinges on Execution 姚书桥 Barney Yao 吕小潼 Xiaotong Lyu barney.sq.yao@htisec.com xt.lyu@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件 CoreWeave FY25Q2 业绩表现：二季度实现营业收入 12.13 亿美元，同比大幅增长 206.7%，超出市场预期的 10.8 亿 美元，但增速较一季度 420%有所放缓；稀释后每股收益（EPS）为 -0.60 美元，同比亏损减少约 63%，逊于分析师 预期的-0.52 美元（一季度 EPS 为-1.49 美元 ...

Global Macro - The report emphasizes the need for a defensive yet growth-oriented global asset allocation strategy over the next three to five years, considering the increasing global economic uncertainty due to U.S. trade policy changes and geopolitical complexities [1][2][3] Economic Outlook - The global economic recovery in the first half of 2025 is primarily supported by export and investment activities, particularly in China, while private consumption remains subdued [2][21] - The IMF forecasts China's real GDP growth at 4.8% for 2025, with continued recovery expected from 2026 to 2030 [21] - The U.S. GDP growth is projected at 1.9% for 2025, with an average annual compound growth rate of 2.02% from 2026 to 2030 [27] - The Eurozone is expected to see GDP growth gradually increase from 0.9% in 2025 to 1.3% by 2027, benefiting from wage and employment growth [2][29] Asset Allocation Trends - Over the past five years, there has been a trend of reducing traditional asset allocations while increasing fixed income and alternative assets [3][40] - The report highlights a shift in investor preferences towards high-quality bonds and growth sectors such as technology and healthcare, while also considering private market investments [45][49] - The report notes that international sovereign funds are increasingly focusing on Chinese assets, particularly in sectors like digital technology and clean energy [40][41] Future Asset Allocation Recommendations - For the period 2025-2027, the report suggests a gradual shift towards a more aggressive asset allocation, emphasizing increased exposure to China and other emerging markets [3][33] - In 2028-2029, it recommends reducing exposure to overvalued assets and reallocating towards value and defensive sectors due to rising recession risks [3][33] Market Participants Analysis - The report indicates that global investors are increasingly diversifying their portfolios, with a notable preference for alternative assets such as private equity and real estate [39][40] - Family offices are shifting their asset allocations towards equities and alternative investments, reflecting a trend towards more aggressive investment strategies [50][51]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Kweichow Moutai with a target price of Rmb1,972, indicating a potential upside from the current price of Rmb1,420 [2][6]. Core Insights - Kweichow Moutai demonstrated resilience amid industry volatility, with mid-term performance showing steady growth driven by an optimized core product structure. In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of Rmb89.39 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, and a net profit of Rmb45.40 billion, up 8.9% [3][12]. - The company is focusing on international expansion and direct sales, with Q2 direct sales revenue reaching Rmb16.79 billion, a 16.5% increase, and international revenue growing by 27.6% to Rmb1.77 billion [4][13]. - Profitability remains strong, with a gross margin of 90.4% and a net profit margin of 47.8%, despite slight declines due to changes in product mix [5][14]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for Kweichow Moutai are optimistic, with projected revenues of Rmb189.91 billion, Rmb207.21 billion, and Rmb226.90 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of Rmb93.82 billion, Rmb103.82 billion, and Rmb115.45 billion for the same years [2][11]. - The diluted EPS is expected to grow from Rmb75 in 2025 to Rmb92 in 2027, reflecting a strong earnings growth trajectory [2][11]. - The company maintains a commitment to a dividend payout ratio of at least 75% over the next three years, translating to a dividend yield of approximately 4% [6][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for BP, indicating an expected total return over the next 12-18 months that exceeds the relevant market benchmark [2][13][19]. Core Insights - BP's Q2 2025 performance is expected to be viewed positively by the market, with adjusted net income slightly exceeding consensus estimates at $1.629 billion, driven by strong performance across all business segments [2][3]. - The company has achieved a dividend per share of 8.320 cents, marking a 4% year-over-year increase, aligning with its annual dividend growth target of at least 4% [2][3]. - BP has reiterated its capital expenditure guidance for FY 2025 at approximately $15 billion, with asset divestitures progressing steadily, having completed $1.7 billion in asset sales in Q2 2025 [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - BP's total revenue for Q2 2025 is projected at $46.627 billion, reflecting a 1% decrease year-over-year [5]. - Adjusted net income for Q2 2025 is forecasted at $1.629 billion, representing an 18% increase from the previous quarter but a 41% decline year-over-year [5]. - The adjusted diluted earnings per share for Q2 2025 is expected to be $0.90, a 70% increase quarter-over-quarter but a 10% decrease year-over-year [5]. - The natural gas and low-carbon energy segment reported adjusted operating income of $1.462 billion, exceeding expectations, while the oil production and operations segment also outperformed with adjusted operating income of $2.262 billion [3][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on Saudi Aramco, indicating a favorable performance in Q2 2025 with a net income of $24.5 billion, slightly above consensus expectations [1][2]. Core Insights - Saudi Aramco's Q2 2025 performance exceeded expectations, driven by higher revenues and lower-than-expected costs, with a reaffirmation of its dividend guidance for FY 2025 [1][2]. - The company reported revenues of $108.5 billion, reflecting a slight increase from previous quarters, despite a decrease in upstream segment revenues due to production challenges [2][4]. - Free cash flow for Q2 2025 was reported at $15.2 billion, down from $19.2 billion in Q1 2025, indicating a robust cash generation capability [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - Net revenue for Q2 2025 was $108.57 billion, a decrease of 5% quarter-on-quarter and 4% year-on-year, but above the consensus estimate of $101.19 billion [4]. - Operating costs were reported at $64.01 billion, showing a 1% increase from the previous quarter [4]. - The upstream segment generated $39.63 billion in revenue, down 16% quarter-on-quarter and 21% year-on-year, while the downstream segment saw a slight increase to $61.23 billion [4]. Project Progress - The company reiterated its capital expenditure guidance for FY 2025, ranging from $52 billion to $58 billion, with key projects like Jafurah and Tanajib on track for completion in Q4 2025 [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on Plug Power, indicating a strong revenue performance driven by GenDrive fuel cell demand, despite a net loss in Q2 2025 [2][3]. Core Insights - Plug Power reported a net loss of $227 million in Q2 2025, which was worse than the consensus estimate of a $163 million loss, but revenue of $174 million exceeded expectations of $158 million, primarily due to strong demand for GenDrive fuel cells [2][3]. - The company reiterated its annual cost reduction target of $150 million to $200 million and its long-term strategic plan, aiming for operational profitability by the end of FY 2027 and overall profitability by FY 2028 [2][3]. - Plug Power expects to achieve a gross margin breakeven in Q4 2025, with a Q2 2025 gross margin of -31%, better than the expected -36% [2][3]. Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, Plug Power's revenue was $174 million, a 30% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 22% increase year-over-year [4]. - The operating costs for Q2 2025 were $227 million, reflecting a 9% increase from the previous quarter but a 17% decrease year-over-year [4]. - The adjusted net income for Q2 2025 was -$227 million, a 15% improvement from the previous quarter but a 13% decline year-over-year [4]. Cash Position and Project Progress - The company holds over $140 million in unrestricted cash and cash equivalents, with an additional debt financing capacity of over $300 million [3]. - Plug Power's packaging and liquefier technology has gained customer recognition, with revenue contributions expected from renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel businesses in the second half of 2025 [3].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the robotics industry but indicates a significant growth potential, suggesting a favorable outlook for investments in this sector [5][21]. Core Insights - The global robotics industry is transitioning from single manufacturing scenarios to multi-sector applications, with a focus on ecosystem building and application deployment in the short term, while embodied intelligence and spatial computing are expected to become foundational technologies in the long term [19][21]. - Japan is advancing embodied intelligence with a focus on "human-machine symbiosis," aiming for full-spectrum intelligence in robots, particularly in healthcare, disaster rescue, and scientific collaboration [15][17]. - The UAE is leveraging its "2030 AI Strategy" and "Dubai 200,000 Robots Plan" to drive the robotics industry, targeting a 9% contribution to GDP by 2032, with strategic focuses on smart factories, medical robots, and space exploration [16][21]. - JD.com is investing over RMB 10 billion in the intelligent robotics sector, aiming to deploy robots across over one million end-user scenarios and support 100 brands to achieve over RMB 1 billion in sales [17][21]. - Spatial computing is identified as a core enabler for robotics, enhancing human-machine interaction and facilitating the transition from AI to AI+Robotics under China's national strategy [18][21]. Summary by Sections Embodied Intelligence - Japan's approach to embodied intelligence focuses on creating distributed intelligent systems capable of environmental awareness and autonomous decision-making, with applications in healthcare and scientific research [15][17]. National Strategies - The UAE's robotics strategy aims for a 9% GDP contribution by 2032, with a focus on integrating government, enterprise, and academic resources to overcome challenges like engineer shortages [16][21]. Corporate Initiatives - JD.com is establishing a comprehensive robotics ecosystem, with significant investments aimed at integrating robots into various industries and households [17][21]. Technological Integration - The integration of spatial computing with AI is seen as crucial for advancing robotics, enabling robots to interact with the physical world in a more sophisticated manner [18][21].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies discussed Core Insights - The 2025 World Robot Conference (WRC) highlighted advancements in bionic design, agricultural automation, embodied intelligence AI capabilities, operational cognition optimization, and industrialization pathways [1][14] - Companies like FESTO, Tevel, iFLYTEK, Qiongtor Intelligence, and Auda Voice Medical showcased innovative solutions and technologies in robotics [1][14] Summary by Relevant Sections Bionic Design - FESTO has developed bionic flying robots, including the "BionicBee," which weighs a few grams, has a wingspan of 12 cm, and achieves a wingbeat frequency of 15-20 times per second, showcasing the integration of natural design with engineering [2][15] Agricultural Automation - Tevel addresses the low automation in fruit picking despite a 200% increase in global fruit output over the past 30 years, utilizing flexible gripping and AI decision-making to create a scalable robotic harvesting system [2][16] AI Capability Upgrades - iFLYTEK emphasizes the need for AI to possess capabilities such as autonomous execution, improved human-machine interaction, and global deployment support, integrating VR/AR with large models to enhance task execution [2][17] Operational Cognition - Qiongtor Intelligence introduced the "digital gene" concept to improve operational understanding in robotics, advocating for programmatic language over natural language to enhance generalization and robustness in task execution [3][18] Future Education - The report discusses the transformation of education through AI Agents, emphasizing the need for interdisciplinary skills and adaptability to work alongside AI systems, which is crucial for meeting the demands of the embodied intelligence era [5][21]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the robotics industry, but it highlights significant growth potential driven by AI integration and diversification across various sectors. Core Insights - The global robotics industry is entering a transformative phase driven by AI, with specialized robots expected to dominate in the short term while Physical AI and embodied intelligence may redefine production logic in the long term [5][14]. - Key trends include the deep integration of AI and robotics, the rise of embodied intelligence, increasing sustainability demands, the emergence of new customer segments, and the acceleration of collaborative robots due to global labor shortages [2][16]. Summary by Sections Technology Trends - AI is evolving from algorithmic enablement to physical perception and autonomous decision-making, marking a second growth cycle focused on computing power, perception, and control capabilities [6][17]. - The integration of AI and robotics is expected to drive new application scenarios across various sectors, including industrial manufacturing, services, healthcare, and construction [16][12]. Industry Diversification - The North American robotics market is shifting from automotive manufacturing dominance to balanced growth across multiple industries, with warehousing, logistics, construction, and healthcare identified as high-growth areas [4][13]. - Specialized robots are currently favored for their stronger ROI and feasibility compared to humanoid robots, which are still in pilot stages [4][13]. Sustainability and Standardization - The report emphasizes the importance of sustainability and standardization in the robotics industry, with various regions focusing on ethical frameworks and safety standards to enhance societal acceptance and commercial viability [6][17].

Group 1: Financial Performance - Abu Dhabi National Oil Logistics and Services Company reported Q2 2025 revenue of $1.258 billion, exceeding consensus expectations of $1.170 billion[2] - The EBITDA margin for Q2 2025 was 32%, surpassing the expected 29%[2] - Net income for Q2 2025 was $236 million, compared to the consensus estimate of $207 million[2] Group 2: Guidance and Projections - The company raised its FY 2025 revenue growth forecast from a mid-20% year-on-year increase to a high-20% range[2] - FY 2025 EBITDA growth guidance was adjusted from a high 10%-20% range to a mid-20% range year-on-year[2] - Net income growth for FY 2025 was revised from a low double-digit increase to a mid-low double-digit increase year-on-year[2] Group 3: Capital Expenditure and Debt - Total capital expenditure reached $270 million, accounting for 46% of the FY 2025 guidance[3] - Free cash flow for Q2 2025 was $62 million, down from $202 million in Q1 2025[2] - Net debt to EBITDA ratio improved to 0.79 times, compared to 0.80 times in Q1 2025[2] Group 4: Risks - Key risks include declining shipping day rates, reduced energy product demand, crew supply shortages, and geopolitical risks[4]