US Macro - The US economy is characterized by a hot economy and a cold labor market, with signs of further increases in goods prices. The economic momentum is uneven, with the services PMI significantly above the boom-bust line, indicating sustained robust supply and demand, while manufacturing demand weakens. Accelerated inventory drawdowns and a sharp contraction in imports reflect an uncertain environment surrounding tariffs and economic policies. US employment remains subdued but has not lost resilience, with December non-farm payrolls falling short of market expectations while the unemployment rate outperformed expectations, primarily due to a decline in the labor force participation rate and a contraction in part-time employment [1][7][45]. Non-Farm Payroll Data - December's non-farm payrolls underperformed expectations, with 50,000 new jobs added, below the market consensus of 70,000. The unemployment rate was 4.4%, better than the expected 4.5%. The decline in the unemployment rate was driven by a falling labor force participation rate and reduced part-time employment. The labor participation rate was 62.4%, meeting market expectations [2][10][49]. - Average hourly earnings for non-farm employees grew by 3.76% year-over-year, exceeding the market expectation of 3.6%. However, this is not expected to significantly drive inflation as both average weekly hours and part-time employment declined [2][10][49]. - In the service sector, job gains were primarily driven by Education & Health Services and Leisure & Hospitality, with December seeing Leisure & Hospitality surpass Healthcare & Social Assistance for the first time, adding 47,000 and 38,500 jobs respectively. In the goods-producing sector, construction employment decreased by 11,000 jobs, while manufacturing employment continued to decline [3][10][49]. ISM PMI Data - The US Manufacturing and Services PMIs showed divergence, with the Services PMI expanding sharply to 54.4, indicating a strengthening expansion trend, while the Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9, marking the 10th consecutive month below the boom-bust line [4][27]. - The services sector exhibited robust supply and demand, supported by steady consumer spending and a rebound following the end of the government shutdown. The surge in the Services PMI was driven by New Orders, which increased by 5.0 points to 57.9, while New Export Orders reversed contraction, rising by 5.5 points to 54.2. Employment in the services sector returned to expansion for the first time in seven months, rising to 52.0 [4][27][48]. - Manufacturing demand weakened, with inventory drawdowns accelerating and imports contracting sharply, reflecting the uncertain environment of tariffs and economic policies. New Orders saw a slight rebound but remained significantly below the boom-bust line. Inventories were the main factor dragging the PMI lower, contributing to a decline in the overall PMI [5][27][48].

Investment Rating - The industry rating remains "Overweight" [1][16]. Core Insights - Last week, major cities experienced a decline in real estate transactions due to external uncertainties, but future policies are expected to stabilize the market and promote new development models [1][16]. - In the second week of 2026, new home transactions in 30 major cities totaled 1.03 million square meters, down 67.4% from the previous week and 46.3% year-on-year [17]. - First-tier cities recorded a transaction volume of 320,000 square meters, down 54.9% week-on-week and 50% year-on-year [17]. - Second-tier cities saw transactions of 460,000 square meters, down 76.9% week-on-week and 41% year-on-year [17]. - Third-tier cities had 260,000 square meters in transactions, down 46.3% week-on-week and 50.6% year-on-year [17]. - From January 1-8, 2026, cumulative transactions in 30 cities reached 1.12 million square meters, down 45.35% from December 2025 and 47% year-on-year [17]. - The land transaction growth in 100 cities continued to slow, with land supply at 13.38 million square meters and transactions at 12.19 million square meters, resulting in a supply-to-sales ratio of 1.10 [19]. - The cumulative land transfer amount was RMB 36.20 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 31.9% [19]. Summary by Sections New Home Transactions - In the second week of 2026, new home transactions in major cities totaled 1.03 million square meters, reflecting significant declines across all city tiers [17]. - Cumulative transactions from January 1-8, 2026, were 1.12 million square meters, indicating a substantial drop compared to the previous year [17]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - Second-hand home transactions in 24 cities were 1.84 million square meters, down 9.75% from the previous week and 25.6% year-on-year [18]. - First-tier cities recorded 667,000 square meters in transactions, down 25.4% week-on-week and 33.1% year-on-year [18]. Land Transactions - Land supply in 100 cities was 13.38 million square meters, with transactions at 12.19 million square meters, indicating a continued slowdown in land transaction growth [19]. - The cumulative land transfer amount was RMB 36.20 billion, down 31.9% year-on-year [19]. Inventory and Clearance Cycle - The inventory clearance cycle for 35 cities was 26.17 months, up 5.64% from the previous month and 23.51% year-on-year [20].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate sector, suggesting that the industry is entering a phase of stable structure and profitability, with a focus on quality over quantity in land acquisition [61]. Core Insights - The 2025 land market is characterized by a "quality over quantity" approach, with a significant decrease in land supply and transaction volumes, while average transaction prices have increased [25][61]. - Central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and leading real estate companies are becoming more active in land acquisition, with a notable increase in land acquisition intensity among major firms [48][61]. - The average premium rate for land transactions in national sample cities has risen, indicating strong competition for prime land in first and second-tier cities [31][61]. Summary by Sections Land Market Overview - In 2025, the total land supply in national sample cities decreased by 16.9% year-on-year to 1,172.42 million square meters, with first, second, and third-fourth tier cities experiencing declines of 27.6%, 6.4%, and 19.2% respectively [25][28]. - Land transaction volumes also fell by 12.5% to 986.63 million square meters, with transaction values dropping by 11.4% to RMB 28,488 billion, while the average transaction floor price increased by 3.4% to RMB 2,887 per square meter [25][28]. Premium Rates and City Focus - The average premium rate for land transactions in 2025 was 5.3%, up 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, with first-tier cities averaging 10.7% and second-tier cities at 6.2% [31][61]. - Major cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu saw premium rates exceeding 10%, indicating a strong demand for quality land [31][61]. Investment Strategies of Key Players - In 2025, 12 real estate companies exceeded RMB 10 billion in land acquisition, with 11 being central SOEs, highlighting the dominance of state-owned enterprises in the market [48][61]. - The land acquisition intensity for the top 100 real estate companies was 0.29, reflecting a 70.6% increase year-on-year, with Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group leading at 81.9% [48][61]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key players in the real estate sector, including Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and China Resources Land, among others, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the current market dynamics [61][65].

Investment Rating - Investment advice emphasizes high-quality development in the real estate sector, with low-valuation real estate showing potential for gains. The sector is expected to experience valuation recovery in 2026 due to improved regulations and policies [20]. Core Insights - The Fifteenth Five-Year Plan focuses on high-quality development in real estate, with market enthusiasm on the rise. The current total market cap of the AH real estate sector is misaligned with its economic position, indicating potential investment opportunities [20]. - The report highlights a decrease in planned land reserve acquisitions, with a total planned reserve exceeding RMB 700 billion. By 4Q25, 5,364 idle land plots are planned for acquisition, covering 290 million square meters, totaling RMB 706 billion [20][3]. - Special bond issuance remains high, with over RMB 300 billion in land reserve special bonds issued by 4Q25, covering 43% of planned reserves, an increase of 11 percentage points from the previous quarter [20][3]. Summary by Sections Land Reserve Planning - In 4Q25, the new planned land reserve amount is RMB 79.8 billion, down 44.4% quarter-on-quarter. The top three regions by reserve scale are Zhejiang (RMB 90.7 billion), Guangdong (RMB 88.4 billion), and Chongqing (RMB 67 billion) [20][3]. - The average discount rate for land acquisition is 0.8, with 77.6% of the new plots acquired being from the 2020-2024 period [20][3]. Special Bonds - By 4Q25, the issuance of special bonds for land reserve has reached over RMB 3,000 billion, with a coverage rate of 43% for planned reserves. The new issuance in 4Q25 is RMB 109.5 billion, maintaining a high pace [20][3]. - Local governments plan to issue RMB 4.58 trillion in new special bonds in 2025, with 6.6% allocated for acquiring idle land [20][3]. Key Companies to Watch - Key targets for investment include development companies such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and Gemdale, as well as property management firms like China Resources Mixc and Poly Property Services [20][3].

Investment Ratings - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies including Pop Mart, Anta Sports, Huazhu Group, Haidilao, and others, while Budweiser APAC is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - Alibaba is committed to increasing investment in Taobao Flash Sale to achieve market leadership [5]. - Suplay, a card company, has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, leading the non-combat collectible card market in China [5]. - Jiumaojiu reported operational data for Q4 2025, showing mixed performance across its brands [5]. - The Ministry of Commerce announced a subsidy program for appliance trade-ins and purchases of new digital and smart products starting January 1, 2026 [5]. Weekly Performance Summary - Key performers in the F&B sector include Guming (+8.7%) and Chagee (+7.0%), while Super Hi underperformed with a decline of -6.6% [6]. - In the home appliance sector, Zhejiang Meida (+10.3%) and Roborock (+7.5%) showed strong performance [6].

Investment Focus - The semiconductor theme remains central, with global semiconductor stocks strengthening, particularly following CES, and the A-share semiconductor equipment index rising by 17% weekly. The semiconductor rally is expected to continue, with recommendations to add positions when semiconductor equipment stocks pull back to key moving averages [1][7]. - The A-share STAR Market chip names are still at relatively low levels, presenting attractive allocation value. The Hang Seng Tech Index has corrected significantly, suggesting potential for catch-up gains as capital expenditure expectations for leading internet platforms are revised upward [1][7]. Market Overview - A-share market liquidity has strengthened significantly, with average daily turnover rising to RMB 2.9 trillion, and Friday's turnover reaching RMB 3.15 trillion, marking the fifth-highest single-day volume on record. Margin financing inflows surged to RMB 790 billion, nearing previous highs [3][11][13]. - In Hong Kong, southbound capital flows rebounded to HKD 327 billion, with funds rotating back into internet stocks and continuing to add to financials. Notably, Alibaba experienced modest net outflows despite a price increase, while Tencent saw net inflows of HKD 25 billion [3][14]. Investment Strategy - Following a strong rally, some consolidation is anticipated, providing a favorable window for continued positioning in the spring rally. The sentiment for the spring rally is anchored on A-share liquidity themes, with the rally expanding from commercial space into AI applications, nuclear fusion, and robotics [4][15][17]. - The market has entered a main upswing phase led by semiconductor equipment, with expectations for the rally to broaden towards domestic AI chips, AIDC infrastructure, and internet platform stocks as IPOs continue to advance [4][15][17].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating, indicating a positive outlook for the company [2]. Core Insights - Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial is recognized as a leading fresh beverage company in China, having surpassed 10,000 stores by the end of 2025, making it the third brand in the industry to achieve this milestone [3][7]. - The report emphasizes that the fresh beverage industry is increasingly dominated by leading brands, with strong channel advantages allowing them to rapidly expand and innovate [3]. - The company aims to become a global leader in multi-brand fresh beverage groups, leveraging a light-asset model for rapid expansion [7]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: Rmb 3,285 million for Dec-24, Rmb 4,215 million for Dec-25, Rmb 4,918 million for Dec-26, and Rmb 5,632 million for Dec-27, reflecting growth rates of -2%, 28%, 17%, and 15% respectively [2]. - Net profit is expected to grow from Rmb 418 million in Dec-24 to Rmb 707 million in Dec-27, with growth rates of 0%, 28%, 16%, and 14% [2]. - The diluted EPS is projected to increase from Rmb 4.09 in Dec-24 to Rmb 6.72 in Dec-27 [2]. Business Model and Strategy - The company operates under a dual-brand strategy, with Auntea Jenny as the main brand and Tea Waterfall as a supporting brand, focusing on both domestic and international markets [4][16]. - The report highlights the company's successful expansion in northern China, attributed to its management philosophy of mutual benefit and resource sharing, as well as a focus on health-oriented products targeting specific consumer demographics [4][20]. - The company has established a low-barrier franchise model, allowing for rapid store expansion and a diverse franchisee base, which is crucial for sustainable growth [37]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Auntea Jenny has shown a strong performance in the fresh beverage market, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 57% in store numbers from 2020 to 2023, outpacing competitors [8][20]. - The report notes that the company has a significant presence in the northern market, with over half of its stores located in this region, which is a strategic advantage compared to other brands [18][20]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by increasing market concentration, with leading brands expected to gain more market share while regional brands coexist [3][4]. Future Growth Potential - The company plans to open 2,000 to 3,000 new stores in 2026, maintaining a steady expansion pace while focusing on improving growth quality [53]. - The report anticipates that the Tea Waterfall brand will accelerate its expansion, targeting lower-tier cities and leveraging the established supply chain of the main brand [52]. - The overseas expansion strategy is focused on developed markets, with successful store openings in Malaysia, the USA, and South Korea, indicating significant growth potential [52].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Mao Geping Cosmetics, with a target price of HKD 108.20, indicating a potential upside of 23.1% from the current price of HKD 87.95 [2][14]. Core Insights - The cosmetics industry has seen intensified competition since 2025, a trend expected to continue into 2026. Mao Geping is anticipated to sustain strong growth in the second half of 2025, driven by robust offline same-store sales and strong online growth, despite some weakening in household consumption [3][11]. - The company has signed a strategic partnership with L Catterton, aimed at global market expansion and establishing a premium beauty investment fund, which could enhance its brand penetration in overseas markets [4][12]. - Shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 3.51% of the total share capital, which may temporarily affect market sentiment, but the company emphasizes that this will not change control and the long-term fundamentals remain strong [5][13]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for Mao Geping are RMB 5.101 billion for 2025, RMB 6.489 billion for 2026, and RMB 8.115 billion for 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 31.3%, 27.2%, and 25.0% respectively [3][11]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 1.201 billion in 2025, RMB 1.494 billion in 2026, and RMB 1.848 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 36.4%, 24.4%, and 23.7% respectively [3][11]. - The company maintains a high gross profit margin of around 84% and a return on equity (ROE) of approximately 34.9% in 2024, projected to decrease slightly in the following years [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive investment outlook for the real estate sector, highlighting specific stocks in various categories such as development, commercial residential, property management, and cultural tourism [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the shift in the real estate industry from a focus on quantity to a focus on quality, driven by the new requirements set forth during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, which aims for high-quality development [1][13]. - It identifies six key tasks to achieve high-quality development, including optimizing affordable housing supply and enhancing property service quality [1][61]. Summary by Sections 1. High-Quality Development as a New Requirement - The report discusses the significant changes in the real estate market, transitioning from a supply-demand imbalance to a potential oversupply situation, necessitating a focus on high-quality development [3][6]. - It outlines the central government's shift in policy from reducing leverage and total volume to stabilizing the real estate market and promoting quality [6][7]. 2. Understanding High-Quality Development - The report defines high-quality development as essential for meeting the people's aspirations for a better life, advancing modernization, and facilitating the transformation of the real estate industry [22][24]. - It presents three major significances, four key requirements, and six essential tasks for high-quality development [21][28]. 3. Policy Expectations for the 15th Five-Year Plan - The report anticipates that future policies will focus on risk prevention, quality improvement, and transformation in the development sector [62]. - It emphasizes the need for a balanced approach between short-term market stabilization and long-term structural reforms [36][60]. 4. Six Key Tasks for High-Quality Development - The report outlines six tasks: optimizing affordable housing supply, promoting sustainable market development, reforming development and financing systems, enhancing housing quality, improving property service quality, and establishing a safety management system for the entire lifecycle of housing [61][62].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [2]. Core Insights - The company's high efficiency across the supply chain, channels, and marketing is the core reason for establishing itself as a leading brand, with expectations for continued market share growth. The reuse of brand, channel, and marketing advantages to expand product categories is anticipated to further unlock growth potential, with new products expected to exceed expectations [1][4]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are estimated at 0.55, 0.68, and 0.82 RMB, respectively. A target price of 18.48 HKD is set for 2026, based on a 25x price-to-earnings (PE) ratio [2][9]. - Revenue projections are as follows: - 2023: 4,869.53 million RMB - 2024: 5,745.32 million RMB (up 7.4%) - 2025: 6,929.05 million RMB (up 18.0%) - 2026: 8,188.01 million RMB (up 20.6%) - 2027: 9,453.91 million RMB (up 18.2%) [3]. Business Structure and Market Position - The rice industry lacks a total volume logic, but there is potential for growth in the mid-to-high-end rice segment due to structural upgrades. The overall competition is fragmented, with a slow increase in industry concentration. Brands positioned in the mid-to-high-end segment benefit from brand barriers and profit margins that allow for better resource allocation [2][28]. - The company has established a strong market position, with a 4% share in the pre-packaged premium rice market, leading the segment against competitors [39][42]. Product Expansion and Growth Potential - The company has a clear path for product innovation, with successful launches in new categories like corn, which is expected to drive future growth. The introduction of new products such as corn juice packs is anticipated to contribute to revenue growth [4][10]. - The company is also focusing on expanding its product categories, with plans to introduce southern rice and other new products to tap into larger growth opportunities [4][10]. Competitive Advantages - The company has built a high-efficiency supply chain in key geographical areas, ensuring quality and price advantages for raw materials. Its direct-to-consumer (D2C) sales model and order-based production enhance product freshness, contributing to a significantly higher repurchase rate compared to industry averages [4][62]. - The company’s marketing strategies and brand positioning have resulted in a strong customer base, with a high repurchase rate of 39% for its rice products, significantly above the industry average of 26% [58][62].