外部扰动，仍有韧性 [Table_Authors] 李林芷(分析师) 2025 年 4 月经济数据点评 登记编号 S0880525040087 本报告导读： 4 月，虽然外部不确定性提升，但在政策承托下国内经济仍有韧性 投资要点： 梁中华(分析师) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040019 证 券 研 究 报 告 宏 观 研 究 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.19 2025-05-23 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 专 题 021-38676666 宏观专题 1. 4 月经济：仍有韧性 4 月，经济在外部冲击下仍有韧性。4 月 8 日至 12 日，中美关税逐步加码， 对我国外需短期造成一定影响，不过，国内需求在政策支撑下仍有一定韧 性，生产、消费增速虽较前月有所回落，但仍保持 6.1%和 5.1%的较高增速。 [Table_Summary] 4 月，经济在外部冲击下仍有韧性。关税变化使得外需短期有一定 回落，不过国内需求在政策支撑下仍有一定韧性。生产、消费增速 虽较前月有所回落，但仍保持较高增速，其中新兴行业生产、政策 利好型消费均有亮眼表现。投资方 ...

进出口和生产小幅修复 [Table_Authors] 李林芷(分析师) 国内高频指标跟踪（2025 年第 19 期） 本报告导读： 关税缓和后港口运行和运价、生产指标有回升。 登记编号 S0880525040087 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 23 May 2025 投资要点： 宏 观 周 报 [Table_Summary] 上周高频数据显示，消费中汽车消费仍高，服务消费较平淡。投资 呈现基建与地产分化趋势，专项债发行加快，地产成交同比转负。 进出口因关税政策调整短期反弹，港口运行回升。生产边际修复， 发电耗煤量、部分行业开工率改善。库存多数回落，煤炭和水泥库 存上升。CPI 降、PPI 升，工业品价格整体趋稳，钢铁、石化等品类 价格自底部回升；流动性紧平衡，美元指数回升 56BP，人民币升值 至 7.20。 宏 观 研 究 券 研 究 报 告 风险提示：贸易局势不确定性 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 证 021-38676666 梁中华(分析师) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040019 | 1. | 周度高频数据速览 3 | | --- | --- | | 1.1. ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 23 May 2025 滔搏国际 Topsports International Holdings (6110 HK) 24/25 财年营收利润承压，现金强劲派息稳定 Revenue and Profit Under Pressure in the 24/25 Fiscal Year, with Strong Cash Flow and Stable Dividends 寇媛媛 Yuanyuan Kou yy.kou@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件：2025 年 5 月 22 日，滔搏国际控股有限公司（简称"公司"）举行 2024/25 财年业绩发布会。 公司业务营收表现承压，零售业务调整成效初显。 公司 24/25 财年营业收入为 270.1 亿元，同比下降 6.6%。其中 下半年同比下滑 5.4%，相比上半年 7.9%的跌幅有所收窄。主要因素是消费环境疲 ...

4 月件量维持较高增速，各快递份额分化 [Table_Industry] 运输 ——快递行业 2025 年 4 月月报 本报告导读： 4 月快递件量同比+19.1%，维持较高增速。头部企业份额逐步分化。建议关注电商快 递龙头份额上升催化估值修复机会，与时效快递顺周期底部时机。 投资要点： 业 跟 踪 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 研 究 行 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.21 [Table_Invest] [table_Authors] 2025-05-23 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 4 月快递件量同比+19.1%，仍保持较快的增速，超邮管局全 年增速预测。1）全行业：2025 年 4 月全国快递企业件量 163.2 亿 件，同比增长 19.1%；2025 年 1-4 月件量 614.5 亿件，同比增长 20.9%。 小件化趋势持续、电商促销且退换货便捷，共同驱动 2025 年前 4 月 件量增速超过邮管局对 2025 年全年件量增速超 8%的预测。此外， 4 月多电商平台取消"仅退款"，不仅短期可释放部分电商逆向件需 求 ...

各地电改和新能源入市方案陆续出台 [Table_Industry] 公用事业 [Table_Invest] 本报告导读： 火电仍是行业最值得看好且分歧最大的板块。 投资要点： 股 票 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行 业 双 周 报 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.22 证 券 研 究 报 告 APPENDIX 1 Summary Investment Highlights: [table_Authors] 2025-05-23 [Table_Summary] 火电仍是行业最值得看好的板块。上周（5.12~5.16）华能+0.4%，华 电+0.5%，长电+1.9%，龙源 H+3%，上证+0.8%，创业板指+1.4%。上 周（5.12~5.16）火电跑输，水风光跑赢，仍然看好北方火电的电价， 南方电价需要观察，但煤价偏弱，二季度火电行业盈利增速非常值 得期待。 河南现货市场 5 月试运行：10%新能源进现货，90%仍按辅助服务费 计成本。1、电能量市场申报最低限价为 50 元/MWh，最高限价为 1200 元/MWh。2、煤机报量报价，其他报量不报价。3、各燃煤机 调频申报价格 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][9]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record high gross margin of 15.6% in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.1 percentage points. The net loss narrowed to RMB 660 million, a reduction of 51% year-on-year and 50% quarter-on-quarter [9]. - The company is expected to benefit from a strong product cycle and enhanced smart features, projecting revenues of RMB 90.9 billion, RMB 130.3 billion, and RMB 152.7 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits attributable to shareholders of RMB -1.1 billion, RMB 3.2 billion, and RMB 6.7 billion for the same years [9]. - The company delivered 94,000 vehicles in Q1 2025, marking a 331% increase year-on-year and a 3% increase quarter-on-quarter, with key models contributing significantly to sales [9]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2022 to 2027, the company’s projected revenue shows a significant growth trajectory, with expected revenues of RMB 90.9 billion in 2025, up from RMB 40.9 billion in 2024, representing a 122% increase [3][7]. - The gross profit is projected to increase from RMB 5.8 billion in 2024 to RMB 14.9 billion in 2025, indicating a strong improvement in profitability [3][7]. - The net profit is expected to improve from a loss of RMB 5.8 billion in 2024 to a loss of RMB 1.1 billion in 2025, with a return to profitability projected in 2026 [3][7]. Market Position and Valuation - The report assigns a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 1.9x for 2025, leading to a target price of HKD 98.58, based on peer comparisons [9]. - The company’s stock has traded within a range of HKD 26.05 to HKD 97.45 over the past 52 weeks, indicating significant volatility and potential for growth [4].

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 22 May 2025 美国能源 US Energy | 杨斌 Bin Yang | | 毛琼佩 Olivia Mao | 杨钰其 Yuqi Yang | 明悦馨 Ella Ming | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | bin.yang@htisec.com | | olivia.qp.mao@htisec.com | yq.yang@htisec.com | ella.yx.ming@htisec.com | | 热点速评 | [Table_yemei1] Flash Analysis | | | | [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 核心观点： 1）数据中心：美国数据中心产业链正由"本土主导"走向"全球标准输出"。机器人：美国机械制造工业品价格指数 2025 年 3 月 为 187.19，环比微增 0.2%，同比增长 2.32%。工业机器人板块， 2024 年全球机器人安装量预计维持在 54.1 万台的水平。本周 奔 ...

数通交换机翻倍以上增长，毛利率维稳、业绩高增 公司 2024 年报&2025Q1 业绩点评 本报告导读： 2024 年以来受益国内 AI 发展，公司数据中心交换机全面爆发、收入增速超预期，取 得 200G/400G 数据中心交换机、数据中心交换机互联网行业市场份额第一 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 11,542 | 11,699 | 13,837 | 16,095 | 18,136 | | (+/-)% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 18.3% | 16.3% | 12.7% | | 净利润（归母） | 401 | 574 | 771 | 1,012 | 1,200 | | (+/-)% | -27.3% | 43.1% | 34.3% | 31.2% | 18.6% | | 每股净收益（元） | 0.71 | 1.01 | 1.36 | 1.78 | 2.11 | | 净资产收益率(%) | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for HGTECH, indicating an expected relative performance exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% in the next 12-18 months [6][11]. Core Insights - HGTECH's subsidiary, HG Laser, has formed a joint venture with Luxshare Precision's subsidiary to enhance its 3D printing strategy, which is expected to boost the performance of its laser business [6][11]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is projected at 1.67 billion, 2.01 billion, and 2.42 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.66, 1.99, and 2.41 RMB [6][11]. - The target price is set at 49.95 RMB, reflecting a 3% increase from the previous target price of 48.70 RMB, based on a 30x PE valuation for 2025 [6][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: 10,310 million RMB, 11,709 million RMB, 15,301 million RMB, 17,897 million RMB, and 20,124 million RMB, with growth rates of -14.2%, 13.6%, 30.7%, 17.0%, and 12.4% respectively [4][7]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1,007 million RMB in 2023A, increasing to 2,419 million RMB by 2027E, with growth rates of 11.2%, 21.2%, 37.1%, 19.8%, and 20.7% [4][7]. - The report highlights a strong return on equity (ROE) trajectory, projected to rise from 11.0% in 2023A to 16.3% in 2027E [4][7]. Strategic Developments - The joint venture, Suzhou Lihua Technology Co., Ltd., will focus on the deep application of SLM (Selective Laser Melting) technology across various industries, enhancing HGTECH's competitive edge in the 3D printing market [6][11]. - HG Laser's expertise in SLM technology positions it well for growth in sectors such as electronics, aerospace, medical implants, and mold manufacturing, indicating a promising outlook for the 3D printing business [6][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, with a target price of RMB 5.20 based on a projected 20x PE for 2025 [1][11]. Core Insights - The company's performance is under pressure due to declining electricity prices and impairment losses, but the sale of hydropower assets is expected to improve earnings in 2025. As a leader in green energy, the company has a solid project pipeline for future growth [4][11]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Projections**: The company is expected to generate revenues of RMB 29.72 billion in 2024, increasing to RMB 34.77 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.1% and 17.0% respectively [2][11]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 6.11 billion in 2024, with a recovery to RMB 7.52 billion in 2025, after a decline of 14.8% in 2024 due to impairment losses [2][11]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is expected to be RMB 0.21 in 2024 and RMB 0.26 in 2025, indicating a gradual recovery [2][11]. Operational Highlights - **Installed Capacity**: As of the end of 2024, the company has 16.44 GW of installed capacity under construction, including 4.87 GW of wind power and 7.45 GW of solar power, which supports its growth strategy [4][11]. - **Revenue Breakdown**: Wind power revenue is projected at RMB 19.82 billion in 2024, while solar power revenue is expected to reach RMB 9.12 billion, showing significant growth in the solar segment [4][11]. Market Position - The company is recognized as an industry leader with significant advantages in offshore wind power, justifying a valuation premium compared to peers [1][11].