Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating for Giant Biogene, with a target price of HK$43.60, indicating a potential upside of 22.0% from the current price of HK$35.74 [1][2][7]. Core Insights - The report expresses a long-term positive outlook on the recombinant collagen sector, highlighting its advantages in safety, efficacy, and sustainability, which are seen as fundamental drivers for industry growth [4][34]. - Giant Biogene has established itself as a leader in the recombinant collagen market, with a strategic shift towards brand development in 2026 [9][30]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at RMB 54.9 billion, RMB 59.9 billion, and RMB 66.9 billion, respectively, with expected growth rates of -0.9%, 9.1%, and 11.8% [7][32]. - Net profit forecasts for the same years are RMB 18.8 billion, RMB 20.0 billion, and RMB 22.1 billion, with growth rates of -9.0%, 6.6%, and 10.5% [7][32]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at approximately 80.5% in 2025, declining slightly to 79.2% by 2027 [7][32]. Brand and Product Strategy - Giant Biogene operates eight brands, with the core brands being Kefu Mei and Keli Jin, which contribute over 95% of the company's revenue [5][11][13]. - The company plans to launch a medical device and five skincare series in 2026, alongside a brand revamp for Keli Jin [6][30][31]. - The focus will be on expanding both online and offline channels, with plans to increase the number of physical stores and enhance partnerships with high-potential retailers [31][32]. Market Position and Challenges - The company faces short-term challenges due to discussions around the content and testing methods of recombinant collagen, which have impacted sales, particularly for the Kefu Mei brand [18][20][25]. - Despite these challenges, the company is adjusting its strategies, including enhancing online marketing and product offerings to stabilize and grow its market presence [25][29][30].

Economic Overview - The economy is showing moderate recovery at the beginning of the year, supported by resilient domestic demand and improvements in external demand and production[1] - High-frequency data indicates that automotive consumption is boosted by trade-in subsidies, while service consumption has weakened marginally post-New Year[3] Investment Insights - Special bond issuance has been advanced, potentially stabilizing infrastructure investment in Q1, although the real estate sector remains weak[3] - In the first two weeks of January, special bonds worth CNY 110.2 billion were issued, compared to zero in the same period last year, indicating a shift in issuance pace[7] Trade and Production - External trade conditions are improving, with both export volume and price rising; port operation data shows a year-on-year increase in most metrics[7] - Production is generally recovering, with operating rates in the steel, petrochemical, and chlor-alkali sectors rising[7] Pricing Trends - Consumer prices are weak, with the iCPI index decreasing by 0.53% month-on-month; however, industrial prices are mostly rising, particularly in the non-ferrous metals and lithium carbonate sectors[7] - The price of lithium carbonate has surged by 74.5% year-on-year due to tight supply and demand from emerging industries[10] Liquidity and Interest Rates - Funding rates have slightly increased, with R007 rising by 6.3 basis points and DR007 by 4.4 basis points compared to the previous week[8] - The 10-year government bond yield increased by 3.1 basis points to 1.88%, while the one-year yield decreased by 4.9 basis points to 1.28%[8] Risks - There are uncertainties regarding trade conditions and the potential for domestic demand recovery to fall short of expectations[12]

Economic Overview - The US economy shows resilience with a slight recovery in consumer confidence, as indicated by the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rising to 54.0 from 52.9[8] - The unemployment rate in the US decreased to 4.4% in December 2025, down from 4.5% in November 2025[8] - The manufacturing PMI in the US fell to 47.9, while the services PMI increased to 54.4, indicating mixed economic signals[8] Market Performance - Global risk assets mostly rose during the week of January 2-9, 2026, with commodities like London gold increasing by 4.1% and Brent crude oil by 3.7%[7] - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.6%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 3.8%[7] - The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 5.7%, indicating a shift in bond market dynamics[7] Inflation and Policy Outlook - Inflation expectations in the US slightly increased, with the one-year inflation expectation at 4.2% remaining stable[8] - The Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts in January 2026, supported by positive employment data[13] - The European Central Bank is likely to maintain current interest rates amid mixed economic indicators[15] Risks and Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly related to Trump's administration and its foreign policy, continue to pose risks to market stability[15] - Commodity prices are sensitive to fluctuations caused by geopolitical tensions, which could impact overall market performance[16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In Q4 2025, the new - issue market of public funds cooled down, but the issuance volume of FOF increased against the trend, and diversified allocation became the main development direction [1]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Whole - Market Overview - **New - issue Quantity and Scale Declined Quarter - on - Quarter**: In Q4 2025, 406 new funds were established, with a total raised scale of about 285.434 billion yuan and an average raised scale of about 703 million yuan. Compared with Q3 2025, the number of new - issue funds decreased by 71, the new - issue scale decreased by about 93.427 billion yuan, and the average issuance scale dropped by 11.48% quarter - on - quarter. The new - issue scale of equity funds and fixed - income funds decreased, while that of FOF increased significantly [3][6]. - **Distribution of New - issue Fund Types**: The proportion of the new - issue scale of FOF increased significantly. In Q4 2025, the new - issue scale of equity funds accounted for 49.71%, and that of fixed - income funds accounted for 26.29%, while the new - issue scale of FOF/MOM accounted for 15.85%, a significant increase of about 14.13 percentage points compared with the previous quarter [14]. - **All New - issue Funds Were Successfully Raised, and Subscription Days Slightly Extended**: In Q4 2025, all new - issue funds were successfully raised, and the average subscription days were 16.7 days, slightly higher than that in Q3 2025 but still at a relatively low level in the past three years [28][31]. 3.2 Product Development Trend Analysis - **Equity Products**: - **Passive Equity Funds**: In Q4 2025, 183 index equity funds were established, with a total issuance scale of about 81.679 billion yuan. The number and scale of new - issue funds decreased significantly compared with Q3 2025, and the average issuance scale also decreased [35]. - **Active Equity Funds**: In Q4 2025, 106 active equity funds were established, with a total raised scale of about 60.218 billion yuan, accounting for 42.44% of equity funds. The number, scale, and scale proportion of new - issue funds continued to rise [42]. - **Fixed - Income Products**: In Q4 2025, 61 fixed - income funds were newly issued, with a total raised scale of about 75.035 billion yuan, a decrease of 25 in number and about 66.989 billion yuan in scale compared with Q3 2025, a quarter - on - quarter decline of 47.17% [46]. - **FOF**: In Q4 2025, 42 FOF were established, with a total raised scale of about 45.246 billion yuan, a significant increase of about 38.714 billion yuan quarter - on - quarter. The average raised scale was about 1.077 billion yuan, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 693 million yuan. FOF products are evolving towards diversified allocation [52][53]. - **QDII Products**: In Q4 2025, 6 new QDII funds were established. Two Brazilian ETFs, Huaxia Bradesco Brazil Ibovespa ETF and E Fund Itau Brazil IBOVESPA ETF, were over - subscribed during the issuance process, indicating that the Brazilian market is attracting investors' attention [59]. - **Mutual Recognition Products**: In Q4 2025, 1 mutual recognition fund, BOC Hong Kong Global Equity Fund, was newly established, with an issuance scale of about 1.524 billion yuan, which is a stock - type fund [61].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the development of dual and triple antibodies in multiple myeloma (MM) and recommends monitoring the progress of TCE monotherapy and combination therapies in MM, including the EMD population [1][15]. Core Insights - The 67th ASH Annual Meeting highlighted significant advancements in hematology, particularly in the treatment of multiple myeloma, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), and chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL/SLL) [31]. - In multiple myeloma, the Tec-Dara combination therapy demonstrated a 36-month overall survival (OS) rate of 83.3%, significantly higher than the 65.0% in the control group, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.46 [32]. - The MSD ROR1 ADC showed promising first-line potential in DLBCL, with 24-month OS and progression-free survival (PFS) rates of 94% and 84%, respectively, outperforming existing treatments [33]. - Eli Lilly's Pirto showed improved PFS and OS trends compared to BR, but the executive admitted it may not become the first-line choice for CLL/SLL due to limited follow-up data and current treatment practices favoring covalent BTK inhibitors [34]. Summary by Sections 1. R/R MM: Focus on Dual/Triple Antibodies and TCE Therapies - Johnson & Johnson's BCMA/CD3+daratumumab therapy received FDA's "National Priority Voucher," reducing review time to 1-2 months, showing excellent efficacy in high-risk patients [7][15]. - IBI3003 from Innovent demonstrated an overall response rate (ORR) of 83.3% in high-risk patients, with a 100% minimal residual disease (MRD) negative rate in those achieving complete response (CR) [16]. - AstraZeneca's AZD0120 (BCMA/CD19 CAR-T) is projected to exceed $5 billion in sales, with a 100% ORR in treated patients [20][21]. 2. DLBCL: MSD ROR1 ADC Shows First-Line Potential - The MSD ROR1 ADC demonstrated a 24-month OS rate of 94% and a PFS rate of 84%, outperforming R-CHOP and Pola-CHP treatments [22][23]. - In high-risk populations, the ORR was 75% for patients with extramedullary disease (EMD), with a 100% ORR in the 1200 µg/kg dose group [23]. 3. CLL/SLL: Pirto May Not Become First-Line Choice - Pirto vs BR showed a 24-month PFS of 93.4% vs 70.7%, but the data is still immature, with a median follow-up of 28 months [25][27]. - The safety profile of Pirto indicated a 40% incidence of grade 3 or higher treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs), compared to 67.4% for BR [25][27].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, with a target price of 11.52 RMB based on a 15x PE for 2026, resulting in a target market value of 187.5 billion RMB [1][16]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in textile trade and the electrolyte sector, benefiting from the global restructuring of consumer goods supply chains and the recovery of the new energy industry. The core trading business maintains steady growth through global capacity layout, while the chemical new materials segment is expected to contribute to earnings elasticity due to increased orders from battery clients and improved supply structure [4][13]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts total revenue for 2025-2027 to be 398.6 billion, 413.3 billion, and 425.4 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of +2.3%, +3.7%, and +2.9% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 11.93 billion, 12.50 billion, and 13.07 billion RMB, with growth rates of +7.9%, +4.8%, and +4.5% respectively [14][15]. Business Overview - The company operates primarily in the textile trade, which accounts for over 90% of its revenue. The chemical business, while facing challenges, still plays a role in the overall performance. The trading segment is expected to grow steadily, while the chemical segment is projected to recover gradually as market conditions improve [25][19]. Supply Chain Strategy - The company has shifted towards a "world supply chain integration" model, with significant investments in overseas production facilities, particularly in Southeast Asia and Africa. This strategy aims to mitigate external disruptions and ensure stable core orders [4][41]. New Energy and Materials Sector - The new energy materials segment, led by the subsidiary RuTai New Materials, is focused on lithium battery materials and organic silicon. The company anticipates a recovery in this sector as supply and demand dynamics improve, despite facing price pressures in the short term [20][4].

公 司 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.09 2026-01-12 主业稳健，益生菌贡献新增长点 倍加洁(603059) | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 1,067 | 1,299 | 1,511 | 1,729 | 1,966 | | (+/-)% | 1.6% | 21.8% | 16.3% | 14.5% | 13.7% | | 净利润(归母) | 93 | -77 | 99 | 132 | 174 | | (+/-)% | -4.9% | -183.6% | 228.4% | 33.4% | 31.3% | | 每股净收益(元) | 0.92 | -0.77 | 0.99 | 1.32 | 1.73 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 7.4% | -7.8% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 12.8% | | 市盈率(现价&最新股本摊薄) | 34.43 | — | 32 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the stock, expecting a relative return exceeding 10% over the next 12-18 months [13]. Core Insights - Fast Retailing's FY26Q1 results exceeded expectations with revenue of 10.28 trillion JPY, up 14.8% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 147.4 billion JPY, up 11.7% YoY [4][3]. - Uniqlo's revenue in Greater China increased, while all other regions achieved double-digit growth, with specific YoY revenue growth rates of +12.2% in Japan, +7.0% in Greater China, +22.1% in APAC, +30.4% in North America, and +34.3% in Europe [4][3]. - The company raised its FY26 guidance to revenue growth of +11.7% and net profit growth of +3.9%, anticipating double-digit growth in all international markets except Greater China [4][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY26Q1 revenue was 10.28 trillion JPY, a 14.8% increase YoY, surpassing consensus estimates by 3.8% [4][3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 147.4 billion JPY, an 11.7% increase YoY, also exceeding expectations [4][3]. - Inventory at the end of the period was 546.1 billion JPY, up 6.4% YoY [4][3]. Regional Performance - Uniqlo Japan's revenue grew by 12.2%, Greater China's by 7.0%, APAC by 22.1%, North America by 30.4%, and Europe by 34.3% YoY [4][3]. - Same-store sales in Japan increased by 11.0%, while Greater China's revenue in RMB grew by 5.5% [4][3]. Margin Analysis - Gross profit margin for FY26Q1 was 55.2%, up 0.8 percentage points YoY [4][3]. - Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expense ratio was 35.2%, down 1.7 percentage points YoY [4][3]. - Net profit margin was 14.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points YoY due to reduced foreign exchange gains [4][3]. Guidance and Outlook - The company expects all international markets, excluding Greater China, to achieve double-digit growth, with Japan's same-store sales projected to grow by 4% [4][3]. - The guidance for FY26 has been raised, reflecting confidence in continued growth despite potential short-term challenges [4][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal sector, indicating that the bottom of the cycle has been confirmed in Q2 2025, with expectations for an upward trend starting in H2 2026 [1][2]. Core Insights - The coal price is expected to stabilize, with demand being the core driver. The report highlights that the recent production increase in Yulin is not expected to significantly impact overall production levels due to existing capacity constraints [1][2]. - The report emphasizes that the supply-demand dynamics are shifting, with a notable increase in electricity demand in November, showcasing the resilience of thermal coal demand [1][2]. - The report forecasts that the coal sector will enter a new upward cycle starting in H2 2026, driven by increased demand for thermal power [1][2]. Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of January 9, 2026, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port is 706 CNY/ton, up 17 CNY/ton (2.5%) from the previous week [6][7]. - The price of Q5000 coal at Huanghua Port is 621 CNY/ton, up 20 CNY/ton (3.3%) from the previous week [6][7]. - The report notes a decrease in coal inventories at major ports, indicating tightening supply conditions [19][28]. Demand and Supply Analysis - November electricity consumption has shown significant growth, indicating strong demand for thermal coal [1][2]. - The report suggests that the anticipated production increases may not lead to significant supply growth due to regulatory constraints on overproduction [1][2]. - The report highlights that domestic coal supply is stabilizing while imports are expected to decline, maintaining overall supply levels [1][2]. Focus on Key Companies - The report recommends continued attention on core companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy, as well as Yanzhou Coal Mining and Jincheng Anthracite Mining [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on innovative drugs and the related industry chain, indicating potential value revaluation for specific pharmaceutical companies [6][28]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector in A-shares showed strong performance in the second week of January 2026, with the SW Pharma Bio index rising by 7.8%, outperforming the overall market [8][29]. - Key sub-sectors such as medical services (+12.3%), medical equipment (+9.4%), and chemical preparations (+7.3%) demonstrated significant growth during this period [13][29]. - Notable individual stock performances included Innovative Medical Management (+61.0%), Sanbo Hospital Management Group (+56.2%), and MeHow Medical (+56.1%) [15][29]. - The report highlights a normal premium level of 68.3% for the pharmaceutical sector relative to all A-shares as of January 9, 2026 [15][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Continued Focus on Innovative Drugs and Industry Chain - The report emphasizes the high prosperity in innovative drugs and suggests monitoring companies like Jiangsu Heng Rui Medicine, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, 3SBio, Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical, and Jiangsu Nhwa Pharmaceutical for potential value revaluation [6][28]. 2. Performance of A-Shares Pharmaceutical Sector - In the second week of January 2026, the A-share pharmaceutical sector outperformed the market, with the SW Pharma Bio index increasing by 7.8% [8][29]. - The report ranks the pharmaceutical sector as the 5th best-performing industry among Shenwan's primary industries during this period [11][29]. 3. Performance of Hong Kong and U.S. Pharmaceutical Sectors - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector outperformed the market, with the Hang Seng Healthcare index rising by 10.3% and the biotechnology sector increasing by 11.1% [20][29]. - Conversely, the U.S. pharmaceutical sector underperformed, with the S&P Healthcare Select Sector rising by only 1.1% compared to the S&P 500's 1.6% increase [20][29].