Investment Rating - The report rates the mechanical equipment industry as "Outperforming the Market" [2] Core Insights - The mechanical equipment sector is experiencing low overall performance growth due to insufficient market demand, with total revenue in 2023 reaching 1.90 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.62%, and a compound growth rate of only 0.96% over the past two years [3][16] - The sector's net profit attributable to shareholders in 2023 was 116.56 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.03%, with a compound growth rate of -2.82% over the past two years, indicating significant pressure on overall performance [3][16] - The first quarter of 2024 shows a total revenue of 412.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.78%, and a net profit of 26.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.63%, still indicating relatively low growth rates [3][16] Summary by Sections 1. Market Demand and Performance - The mechanical equipment sector's overall performance growth is low due to weak downstream demand, with fixed asset investment in manufacturing growing by 9.6% year-on-year in the first five months of 2024, while infrastructure investment grew by only 5.7% [9][11] - The manufacturing PMI for June 2024 was 49.5, indicating continued weak market demand, which suppresses growth in the mechanical equipment sector [9] 2. Market Trends and Valuation - The SW mechanical equipment index has declined by 13.03% since the beginning of 2024, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 13.92 percentage points, ranking 16th among 31 SW primary industries [26][28] - The overall rolling P/E ratio for the sector has decreased from 26.02 times at the end of 2023 to 23.22 times, with a significant drop in valuation premium relative to the entire A-share market [36][37] 3. Fund Allocation - As of the end of Q1 2024, funds held a market value of 80.31 billion yuan in the SW mechanical equipment sector, accounting for 3.18% of total holdings, ranking 11th among 31 SW primary industries [39][41] - The low allocation ratio indicates that funds are still underweight in the mechanical equipment sector, with a low allocation ratio of 1.06% compared to the previous year's 1.36% [39][41] 4. Industry Outlook - The push for large-scale equipment upgrades is expected to catalyze improvements in industry prosperity, with a focus on enhancing domestic supply chain security and promoting technological innovation [3][16]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The 2024 SNEC Photovoltaic Exhibition in Shanghai featured over 3,500 exhibitors and attracted more than 800,000 visitors, indicating strong interest and growth potential in the photovoltaic industry [2][3] - Key trends identified include advancements in photovoltaic component technology, expansion of application scenarios, and the emergence of integrated energy solutions [3][6][16] Summary by Sections Photovoltaic Component Technology - The dominant technology route for photovoltaic components is N-type TOPCon, with record power outputs and conversion efficiencies. TOPCon products reached a maximum power of 740W (Trina) and 670W (Jinko), with conversion efficiencies exceeding 24% [3][6] - Other technologies such as HJT and XBC also showcased high performance, with HJT modules achieving up to 767W and 24.70% efficiency [3][6] Application Scenarios - Photovoltaic components are rapidly expanding into various application scenarios, including centralized and distributed systems. Centralized components are designed for extreme environments, while distributed components cater to commercial rooftops and BIPV applications [6][8] Household Inverters - The exhibition highlighted an increase in the variety of household inverters, including micro-inverters and energy storage products. The trend towards balcony photovoltaic systems with storage solutions is expected to grow due to policy support and rising household demand in developed countries [8][11] Commercial Inverters - Commercial inverters are trending towards higher power outputs, with products reaching up to 160kW from companies like Kehua and others offering 150kW solutions tailored for commercial applications [11] Hydrogen Energy - Hydrogen production equipment and integrated energy storage solutions are emerging as new directions for photovoltaic and inverter companies. Leading firms showcased solutions for green hydrogen production and energy storage applications [13] Integrated Energy Solutions - Companies are actively building integrated energy storage and charging ecosystems, with a focus on digital intelligence and multi-energy collaboration. This includes the development of charging stations and cloud platforms for energy management [16]

策 略 研 究 宏 观 研 究 [Table_Author] 分析师： 刘晓溪 执业证书编号：S1380524040001 联系电话：010-88300644 邮箱：liuxiaoxi@gkzq.com.cn 证 券 研 究 报 告 科创 50 指数 2024 年内走势 资料来源：Wind，国开证券研究与发展部 策 略 重 大 事 件 点 评 报 告 [Table_Date] 2024 年 6 月 21 日 近日，中国证监会党委书记、主席吴清在论坛开幕式上发表主 旨演讲，再次强调新"国九条"等政策文件的重要性，以强监 管、防风险、推动资本市场高质量发展为主线，就推动新质生 产力发展、科创板改革、提升公司投资价值、保护投资者、监 管执法重点等内容深入解析，明确了监管层对我国资本市场未 来发展的态度和方向。 以科技创新培育和发展新质生产力，引领资本市场新方向。发 展新质生产力不仅包括培育壮大新兴产业、布局未来产业，也 包含了传统产业的转型升级和提质增效。证监会近日发布的 《八条措施》进一步强化了科创板"硬科技"的定位。壮大耐 心资本、坚持长期主义有助于促进"科技-产业-金融"良性循 环，更好服务科技创新和新质生产 ...

策 略 研 究 [Table_Report] 万得全 A 指数 2024 年内走势 资料来源：Wind，国开证券研究与发展部 [Table_Title] 扶优限劣仍是市场主导方向 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——周度策略观察（2024 年第 24 周） 市场回顾：上周（0617-0621）市场延续震荡调整，"硬科技" 属性引领下科创 50 指数逆势上涨，但多数宽基指数下行，市 场成交活跃度进一步萎缩，国债期货仍延续强势走势。全球方 面，瑞士央行年内二度降息，欧元区制造业 PMI 再度转弱，弱 势非美货币带动美元指数周线"三连阳"，有色、贵金属等大宗 商品震荡调整，国际原油期货进一步反弹；美股科技板块一度 再创新高，但部分龙头股于上周后两个交易日出现调整。 全球局势仍然复杂，国际原油以及 BDI 指数连续上涨。中东局 势的不断反复或进一步推升运输成本，全球通胀水平或难以在 短时间内回归至此前多国央行预期目标，本周美国公布 PCE 数 据需要关注。此外，受瑞士央行降息以及欧元区制造业 PMI 走 弱等影响，推升了美元指数连续上行，强美元一旦进一步发酵 或不同程度影响全球大类资产表现，进而不排除推动避险情绪 的蔓延。 ...

Economic Overview - May industrial added value grew by 5.6%, below the expected 6% and previous month's 6.7%[31] - Fixed asset investment from January to May increased by 4.0%, slightly below the expected 4.2%[31] - Retail sales of consumer goods in May rose by 3.7%, lower than the expected 4.5% but improved from April's 2.3%[31] Production and Investment - Mining industry added value increased by 3.6%, manufacturing by 6.0%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production by 4.3% in May[9] - Infrastructure investment continued to decline, with broad and narrow infrastructure investment growth at 6.7% and 5.7% respectively, down by 1.1 and 0.3 percentage points from previous values[12] - Manufacturing investment showed steady growth, with a 9.6% increase from January to May, supported by resilient exports and new equipment upgrade policies[44] Consumption Trends - Employment remained stable, with the urban survey unemployment rate at 5% in May, unchanged from April[11] - Consumer market showed signs of recovery, driven by the "May Day" holiday effect and promotional events like the "618" shopping festival[20] - Upgrading goods sales saw significant growth, with retail sales of sports and entertainment goods up by 20.2% and home appliances by 12.9% in May[20] Future Outlook - The economy is expected to continue its moderate recovery, with GDP projected to fall to around 5% in the second quarter[6] - The overall economic environment remains influenced by insufficient domestic demand and slow issuance of special bonds affecting infrastructure investment[6] - Future consumption growth may stabilize due to lower year-on-year bases and potential price increases in the second half of the year[29]

观 分析师： 杜征征 执业证书编号：S1380511090001 联系电话：010-88300843 邮箱：duzhengzheng@gkzq.com.cn 券 研 究 工业增加值 资料来源：Wind，国开证券研究与发展部 ‐20 ‐10 0 10 20 30 40 2017‐052017‐112018‐052018‐112019‐052019‐112020‐052020‐112021‐052021‐112022‐052022‐112023‐052023‐112024‐05 % 工业增加值:累计同比 消费 ‐30 ‐20 ‐10 0 10 20 30 40 % 社会消费品零售总额:当月同比 2016‐052016‐112017‐052017‐112018‐052018‐112019‐052019‐112020‐052020‐112021‐052021‐112022‐052022‐112023‐052023‐112024‐05 资料来源：Wind，国开证券研究与发展部 相关报告 —5 月宏观经济数据点评 2024 年 6 月 18 日 消费延续温和复苏。展望未来，消费增速或企稳回升。一 是 2023 年同期基数 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the recent inflation data in China aligns with market expectations, with signs of recovery in the PPI index. However, there is still insufficient demand for loans from both enterprises and residents, as reflected in the financial data released by the central bank [1][14][46]. - The A-share market is expected to receive support, particularly in sectors such as TMT, securities, military industry, machinery, and power equipment, although the strong dollar phenomenon may pose risks [2][30][23]. - The overall market sentiment has improved compared to the beginning of the year, with expectations for policy measures to stabilize the market ahead of important meetings in July [1][2]. Group 2 - The A-share market experienced a weak fluctuation last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3032.63 points, reflecting a weekly decline of 0.61%. The technology sector, particularly the STAR Market, showed strong performance, while value stocks hindered the overall index's upward momentum [6][9][30]. - In terms of industry performance, the TMT sector led gains, while the shipping sector faced declines due to geopolitical events. The non-bank financial sector, particularly brokerage stocks, showed significant gains [9][10][30]. - The report highlights that over 60% of individual stocks achieved positive returns last week, with the median stock performance outperforming the overall index [42].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Insights - In May, domestic sales of excavators continued to show positive growth, while the decline in export sales narrowed. From January to May 2024, a total of 86,610 excavators were sold, representing a year-on-year decrease of 6.92%. Domestic sales increased by 1.81% to 45,746 units, significantly better than the same period in 2022 and 2023, which saw declines of 54.68% and 43.90% respectively [6][10] - In May alone, excavator sales reached 17,824 units, a year-on-year increase of 6.04%, with domestic sales growing by 29.22% to 8,518 units, marking three consecutive months of positive year-on-year growth [6][10] - The export volume of excavators faced pressure due to weakened demand in certain regions and high base effects, with cumulative exports from January to May 2024 down 15.08% to 40,864 units [6][10] Summary by Sections Domestic Market Performance - The domestic market for excavators showed a year-on-year growth of 1.81% in the first five months of 2024, with May sales reflecting a 29.22% increase compared to the same month last year [6][10] - The cumulative operating hours of Komatsu excavators in China turned positive in May, indicating a potential improvement in construction machinery demand [10] Export Market Performance - The export sales of excavators continued to decline, with a 15.08% drop in the first five months of 2024, although the decline rate improved in May compared to April [6][10] Financial Performance of the Industry - The SW engineering machinery sector achieved a revenue of 341.5 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 1.52%, with a net profit of 25.47 billion yuan, up 23.56% [5][11] - The overall gross margin and net margin of the sector improved, reaching 25.17% and 7.63% respectively in 2023, with further increases in Q1 2024 [5][11] - The overseas revenue of the SW machinery sector grew by 32.4% to 142.18 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 41.63% of total revenue, marking a record high [5][11]

Group 1 - The overall performance of A-shares is still in a bottoming phase, with over 5,300 listed companies disclosing their 2023 annual reports and 2024 Q1 reports. The revenue growth rates for A-shares in 2023 and 2024 Q1 are 1.50% and 0.11%, respectively, while excluding financials and oil, the growth rates are 2.59% and -0.06%, indicating a return to negative growth since Q3 2020 [29][30] - The overall ROE for A-shares at the end of 2023 is 8.46%, and for Q1 2024, it is 8.04%, which is nearly half of the level at the end of 2010 (approximately 16%) and close to historical lows [31][32] - The report indicates that the consumer sector has shown improvement in performance since 2023, while upstream cyclical industries are nearing a transition to a replenishment cycle. The financial sector continues to face pressure, but the low PB valuation provides some support for market performance [15][48] Group 2 - The report highlights that the overall revenue and profit growth rates for A-shares are declining, reflecting a stronger supply side than demand side, which remains a major contradiction in the current economic recovery. Enhancing both domestic and external demand is crucial for addressing existing bottlenecks [49][50] - The report suggests that industries with potential upward turning points include electronics, media with AI applications, defense and military industries, and non-ferrous metals nearing a replenishment cycle. Additionally, the mid-cap value index is expected to drive overall ROE recovery, supported by multiple important policies [23][48] - The report notes that the inventory turnover days for various industries are generally stable, with most industries in either active destocking or passive restocking phases, indicating that insufficient demand is a primary challenge for economic recovery [10][49]

行 业 [T必a和bl必e_拓R放e弃p收Ti购tle英]美资源 供给端炒作情绪或暂时降温 研 究 [Table_Title] ——有色金属行业点评报告 [分Ta析b师le_：Author] [Table_Date] 2024年6月3日 孟业雄 [核Ta心ble观_S点ummary] 执业证书编号：S1380523040001  近日，矿业巨头必和必拓宣布，放弃 500 亿美元（约合3624.75 证 联系电话：010-88300920 亿人民币）收购英美资源的交易。必和必拓CEO在当天的声明中 券 表示：“我们认为，我方对英美资源集团的收购提议是一个为双 邮箱：mengyexiong@gkzq.com.cn 方股东有效增加价值的绝佳机会，但我们无法与英美资源就南非 研 [Table_Author] 监管风险和成本的具体观点达成一致。尽管寻求建设性地参与并 究 [有Ta色b金le_属P（icQ中u信ot）e]与上证综指走势图 提出了无数请求，我们仍无法从英美资源获得制定措施应对其认 报 为过度风险所需的关键信息。”必和必拓收购英美资源告吹，主 告 要分歧和难点在于如何处置英美资源的南非业务，必和必拓提议 剥 ...