Investment Rating - Investment rating: Recommended (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The acquisition of Salt Lake Co. by China Minmetals is expected to accelerate the optimization of domestic salt lake resources [2] - The establishment of the China Salt Lake Group aims to enhance resource integration and development in the salt lake industry, particularly in Qinghai [3] - The acquisition reflects confidence in the strategic value of salt lake assets and the potential for scale advantages post-integration [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Potash Business - The global potash market is highly concentrated with a CR5 of 74%, and Salt Lake Co. holds over 30% of domestic production [2] - The company has mining rights for approximately 3,700 square kilometers in the Qarhan Salt Lake, with a designed production capacity of 5 million tons of potassium chloride and a gross margin of 53.5% in the first half of 2024 [2] Lithium Business - Salt Lake Co. has stable production and sales of lithium carbonate, with a production capacity of 30,000 tons and a production volume of 19,000 tons in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 34% [2] - The average selling price of lithium carbonate was 94,000 yuan/ton, with a gross margin of 60.2% [2] Future Price Outlook - Despite a recent decline in lithium carbonate prices, a stabilization is expected as the industry enters a peak season [5] - The bottom price for potash is anticipated to be confirmed due to rigid demand and no significant production increases expected from 2024 to 2026 [5]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Recommended (maintained) [2] Core Views - The overall industry outlook remains positive, with a focus on the trends in raw material prices, monthly sales, and the implementation of industry regulations [2] - The domestic and international development prospects for the new energy vehicle industry are certain, making the sector worthy of attention [2] - It is expected that individual stock performance will show differentiation, suggesting a focus on leading companies in specific segments [2] Summary by Sections Industry Weekly Data Tracking - **Lithium Carbonate Market**: The average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 68,000 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton (5.56%) from last week. Battery-grade lithium carbonate averages 71,000 yuan/ton, also down 400 yuan/ton (5.33%) [8][9] - **Lithium Hydroxide Market**: The average price for battery-grade lithium hydroxide is 71,000 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from last week [14] - **NCM Material Prices**: The price for NCM 523 single crystal material is 108,500 yuan/ton, while NCM 622 multi-crystal is 109,000 yuan/ton, both down 50 yuan/ton [20] - **Negative Electrode Material Prices**: The market reference price is 32,378 yuan/ton, down 760 yuan/ton (2.29%) [27] - **Electrolyte Prices**: The average price for lithium iron phosphate electrolyte is 18,300 yuan/ton, while the average for ternary/conventional electrolyte is 25,000 yuan/ton, both stable from last week [35] - **Separator Prices**: The average price for 7um wet separators is 0.84 yuan/square meter, and for 16um dry separators is 0.43 yuan/square meter, both stable [41] Downstream Battery Market - **Battery Installation Volume**: In the first seven months of 2024, the cumulative installation volume of power batteries in China reached 244.9 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 32.8% [2] - **Electric Vehicle Market**: In the same period, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 5.911 million and 5.933 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 28.7% and 31.1% [2] - **Global Battery Usage**: The total usage of batteries for electric vehicles (EV, PHEV, HEV) globally was approximately 434.4 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 22.4% [2] Industry Dynamics - **Top 10 Battery Manufacturers**: The top 10 global battery manufacturers include CATL, BYD, LG Energy Solution, SK On, and others, with Chinese manufacturers accounting for 70% of the global market [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Recommended" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The average daily pig iron output has stopped declining and is showing signs of recovery, with demand exhibiting a long-term downward trend [1][3] - Steel prices are experiencing fluctuations downward, with construction material profits recovering better than plate materials [3] - The overall steel demand has slightly decreased week-on-week, indicating that the anticipated demand improvement during the "Golden September" period still requires further observation [1][3] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Data Changes in the Steel Industry - The average daily pig iron output rose to 2.2261 million tons, an increase of 0.78% week-on-week [8] - The overall production of the five major steel products reached 8.0117 million tons, up 2.89% week-on-week [1] - The high furnace operating rate increased to 77.63%, up 1.22 percentage points [8] 2. Weekly Data Trends in the Steel Industry - Total steel inventory decreased to 15.092 million tons, down 3.4% week-on-week [2] - The inventory of construction materials contributed significantly to the overall inventory reduction [2] - The apparent consumption of five major steel products totaled 8.5492 million tons, down 0.31% week-on-week [1] 3. Industry News and Company Dynamics - On September 6, the Hebei Provincial Development and Reform Commission released a draft management method for coal consumption substitution in key areas [19] - Yunnan Yuxi Xianfu Steel Group's 1 million tons/year coking project commenced construction, with a total investment of 2.2 billion yuan [19] - Fujian Long Steel's first blast furnace was ignited, marking the full production of the first phase of the project [19]

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant decline in the Shanghai Composite Index, which has fallen below 2800, indicating a weak market sentiment that awaits policy signals for improvement [1][4]. - The A-share market has experienced a continued low trading activity, with average daily turnover dropping to 586.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.5 billion yuan from the previous week, reflecting a lack of positive market sentiment [1][11]. - The report notes that the valuation percentiles of major indices, including the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300, have shown a significant decline, indicating a bearish trend in the market [6][7]. Group 2 - Concerns over economic recession have risen due to disappointing overseas economic data, coupled with high uncertainty surrounding the upcoming U.S. elections, leading to adjustments in overseas stock markets [1][4]. - The report emphasizes the necessity for stronger policy measures to enhance market expectations, as the current economic pressures and insufficient domestic demand continue to weigh on the market [1][4]. - The report indicates a shift in market style towards speculative trading, with a general lack of profitability across industry sectors, suggesting a cautious approach until substantial policy changes are implemented [1][4][12]. Group 3 - The report tracks the A-share risk premium, which has increased compared to the previous week, reaching a new high for the year, indicating heightened risk perceptions among investors [7][8]. - The report also notes a decline in the stock-bond ratio, suggesting a shift in investor preference towards bonds amid the weak equity market [9]. - The industry rotation index has shown an increase, indicating a faster rotation among sectors, although the overall profitability remains weak [12][14]. Group 4 - Upcoming key economic indicators to watch include China's CPI and PPI data on September 9, and U.S. CPI data on September 11, which may influence market expectations and policy decisions [14]. - The report suggests that a rapid decline in inflation could lead to more aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while slower declines may result in a more gradual approach [14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Recommended" [2] Core Insights - The Korean steel industry entered a platform period around the early 21st century, with POSCO responding to declining profits during this reduction phase by cutting capital expenditures and reducing debt levels [2][21] - The unit GDP steel consumption in Korea has decreased from 7248 tons per billion USD in 2001 to 3192 tons per billion USD in 2022, indicating a shift in demand dynamics [2][11] - POSCO has maintained a crude steel production of over 35 million tons despite domestic demand challenges, adjusting its product mix towards higher value-added products [21][29] Summary by Sections 1. Development of the Korean Steel Industry - The Korean steel industry began in the 1960s and has gone through three main phases: initial entry (1968-1972), gradual catch-up (1973-1988), and rapid expansion (post-1989) [9][15] - POSCO played a crucial role in the development of the Korean steel industry, with significant government support and international assistance from Japan [15][17] 2. Economic Context - Korea's GDP growth has slowed from an average of 7.2% from 1991-2000 to 3.5% from 2001-2023, reflecting a transition from rapid industrialization to a more stable growth phase [6][7] - The industrial value added as a percentage of GDP has fluctuated, stabilizing between 32%-34% since 2010 [7] 3. POSCO's Strategic Responses - POSCO has not significantly reduced production but has instead focused on reducing capital expenditures and debt, with capital expenditures dropping from 65.7 trillion KRW in 2013 to 25.6 trillion KRW in 2015 [25][28] - The company has also reduced its R&D spending, which fell from 5.92 trillion KRW in 2011 to 5.37 trillion KRW in 2022 [28] 4. Investment Recommendations - Chinese steel companies are advised to learn from POSCO's experience by adjusting product structures, accelerating mergers and acquisitions, and reducing capital expenditures and debt levels to navigate similar challenges [31]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The cash management products' 7-day annualized yield is 1.74%, remaining stable compared to the previous week [7][9]. - The yield gap between cash management products and money market funds is 21 basis points (BP), unchanged from the previous week [7]. - The 1-month annualized yield for non-cash fixed income products is 2.17%, which has decreased by 31 BP from the previous week [9]. - The 6-12 month fixed income products have a 6-month annualized yield of 3.59%, down by 12 BP from the previous week [9]. - The 1-3 year fixed income products show a 1-year annualized yield of 3.24%, decreasing by 1 BP from the previous week [9]. Summary by Sections 1. Cash Management Products 7-Day Annualized Yield - As of September 1, 2024, the cash management products' yield is 1.74%, consistent with the previous week [7]. 2. Performance Review of Wealth Management Products - The report indicates that the average yield for non-cash fixed income products over the past month is 2.17%, reflecting a decline of 31 BP [9]. - The 6-month annualized yield for fixed income products with a maturity of 6-12 months is 3.59%, down by 12 BP [9]. - The 1-year annualized yield for 1-3 year fixed income products is 3.24%, showing a slight decrease of 1 BP [9]. 3. Maturity and Compliance Status of Wealth Management Products - From August 26 to September 1, 2024, the total maturity scale of wealth management products is 280.9 billion, with an average compliance rate of 45%, which is a decrease of 4% from the previous week [11]. - Companies achieving a 100% compliance rate include Bohai Bank Wealth Management and Goldman Sachs ICBC Wealth Management [11]. - Closed-end products show a better compliance rate, averaging 75%, which is higher than the overall compliance rate [11].

证券研究报告——宏观策略月报 弱势行情之后，阶段性 反弹临近 ——2024年9月资产配置报告 HWABAO SECURITIES 2024年9月3日 分析师： 蔡梦苑（执业证书编号：S0890521120001） 分析师： 郝一凡（执业证书编号：S0890524080002） 销售服务电话：021-20515355 ► 请仔细阅读报告结尾处风险提示及免责声明 宏观主线梳理 宏观主线梳理 美联储降息、美国大选第二场辩论将至，外部波动或再度放大 Ø 美联储降息即将落地，"买预期、卖现实"再现？ u 当前市场对美联储降息、经济放缓而非衰退的乐观预期已充分计价，若美联储 降息落地且对未来降息节奏指引并不激进，则市场或将获利兑现，导致美股短 期调整； u 降息超预期的前提是经济数据出现衰退信号，则会引发市场新一轮下挫，股跌 债涨。 海外宏观 u 美国大选不确定性仍然较高，或放大外部波动 u 哈里斯支持率领先特朗普，但领先优势不明显，大选变数仍然较大。 u 美国大选第二场辩论即将举行，辩论结果不确定性偏高，或加剧市场波动。 Ø 地缘风险仍需警惕 u 中东局势复杂多变，以色列与巴勒斯坦、黎巴嫩、伊朗冲突风险仍然偏高；俄 乌 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the hydrogen energy industry is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The hydrogen energy market is expected to see growth in both supply and demand due to the implementation of relevant policies, with an increase in market scale anticipated [3] - The report highlights the importance of infrastructure development, particularly in hydrogen refueling stations, hydrogen storage and transportation, and core components of fuel cells [3] Monthly Data Changes - In July, the price of high-purity hydrogen in Guangdong decreased by 11.74% to 2.03 CNY/Nm3, while other markets remained stable [7] - The total capacity of renewable hydrogen production projects in China reached 969.7 MW, a slight decrease of 1.02% from the previous month [7] - The number of operational hydrogen refueling stations in China is 368, with a total daily supply capacity of 279,000 kg [7] Policy Developments - The central government has issued documents to promote the full-chain development of hydrogen energy, indicating a strong emphasis on the industry at the macro level [9][10] - Local governments, such as Shanghai and Beijing, are taking steps to standardize and promote the construction of hydrogen refueling stations and fuel cell vehicles [19][20] Investment and Financing Events - Notable financing activities include a 400 million C+ round financing for Suzhou Kairun New Materials and the completion of a listing application for Guofu Hydrogen Energy on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [21][22][23]

2024 年 09 月 03 日 证券研究报告 | 产业月报 供给、消费端氢价持续降低，加氢站日供给能力提升 氢能月度报告 分析师：张锦 分析师登记编码：S0890521080001 电话：021-20321304 7 月广东省高纯氢价格有所回落，可再生能源制取规模小幅回落：7 月上海/ 北京/广东/河南/河北高纯氢（≥4N）市场主流价格为 2.7/2.3/2.03/2.1/2.2 元 /Nm3，其中广东市场环比上月下跌 11.74%，其他市场环比上月均无明显变化。 根据中国氢能联盟的统计数据，7 月中国氢价指数生产侧指数保持不变，为 29.3 元/千克。从可再生能源制氢情况来看，7 月全国共有 78 个可再生制氢能源项 目，环比持平，合计可再生能源制氢规模达 969.7MW，环比下降 1.02%，从 地区来看已覆盖 25 个省（直辖市，自治区），涉及 70 家企业。技术路线以碱 性电解水制氢（AE）为主，项目规模达到 841.4 兆瓦，占比 86.8%；电力来源 主要来源于光伏，项目规模达到 712.8 兆瓦，占比 73.5%；应用方向以交通为 主，项目规模达到 306.8 兆瓦，占比 31.6%。 邮箱： ...

2024 年 09 月 03 日 证券研究报告 | 产业周报 铁矿发货量回到近四年高位，港口库存环比增加 340 万吨 铁矿行业周度报告 分析师登记编码：S0890521080001 电话：021-20321304 邮箱：zhangjin@cnhbstock.com 供应：本周（8.24-8.30）进口铁矿石发运量增长至近四年同期高位，到港量 大幅回落 14.93%。澳洲、巴西本周发货量（14 个港口）合计 2615.4 万吨，环 比 11.36%，同比 7.7%，居于近四年同期高位，增量主要来自巴西。澳洲、巴 西发货量（14 个港口合计）分别为 1629.7 万吨、985.6 万吨，环比分别为-1.03%、 40.42%。四大矿山发货至中国的量合计 2086 万吨，环比 7.3%。其中力拓、必 和必拓、淡水河谷、FMG 本周至中国的发货量分别为 503.9 万吨、479.2 万吨、 785.1 万吨、317.8 万吨，环比分别为-2.61%、4.36%、27.29%、-9.36%。到 港方面，中国 26 港到港量 2100.8 万吨，环比-14.93%；中国北方港口到港量 1134.6 万吨，环比-9.5% ...