2024 年 09 月 24 日 证券研究报告 | 产业周报 铁水产量连续第四周回升，铁矿供应远端降、近端增 铁矿行业周度报告 分析师登记编码：S0890521080001 电话：021-20321304 供应：本周（9.14-9.20）进口铁矿石远端供应下滑，近端供应增长 9.31%。 本周澳洲、巴西本周发货量（14 个港口）合计 2477.4 万吨，环比下滑 197 万 吨，下滑幅度为-7.37%，高于去年同期 12.7%。澳洲、巴西发货量（14 个港口 合计）分别为 1762 万吨、715.4 万吨，环比分别为-6.21%、-10.1%。四大矿 山发货至中国的量合计 1958.8 万吨，环比-13.4%,四家矿山发货量均呈下滑态 势。力拓、必和必拓、淡水河谷、FMG 本周至中国的发货量分别为 592.8 万吨、 432 万吨、591.1 万吨、342.9 万吨，环比分别为-4.08%、-25.84%、-10.71%、 -14.17%。到港方面，中国 26 港到港量 2229.2 万吨，环比 9.31%；中国北方 港口到港量 1264.8 万吨，环比 11.85%。国内矿方面，9 月 7 日-9 月 20 ...

2024 年 09 月 23 日 证券研究报告 | 产业周报 动力电池行业周报：锂矿供给出清正在进行中，现已出 现锂矿减产甚至停产消息 2024.09.14-2024.09.20 电力设备及新能源 分析师：胡鸿宇 分析师登记编码：S0890521090003 电话：021-20321074 邮箱：huhongyu@cnhbstock.com 行业数据：1）本周工业级碳酸锂市场均价 7.15 万元/吨，较上周价格持平； 电池级碳酸锂市场均价 7.45 万元/吨，较上周价格持平。2）三元材料 523 单 晶动力市场价格在 10.95 万元/吨，较上周价格持平；三元材料 622 多晶消费 市场价格在 10.9 万元/吨，较上周价格持平；高镍 811 多晶动力材料市场价格 在 14.9 万元/吨，较上周价格持平。3）负极材料市场集中度较高，本周价格持 平，市场参考价格为 3.3 万元/吨，市场供应充足。4）电解液价格持平，磷酸 铁锂电解液市场均价为 1.83 万元/吨，较上周同期价格持平；三元/常规动力电 解液市场均价为 2.5 万元/吨，较上周同期价格持平。电解液企业多为定制生 产，基本按单进行生产，与下游市场关联 ...

2024 年 09 月 23 日 证券研究报告 | 产业周报 日均铁水产量增幅收窄，成材价格震荡上行 钢铁行业周度报告 分析师：张锦 分析师登记编码：S0890521080001 电话：021-20321304 供应：本周（9.14-9.20）日均铁水产量增幅收窄，成材端螺纹钢增产明显。 本周高炉开工率（样本数 247 家）78.23%，环比上升 0.6 个百分点；日均铁水 产量持续回升至 223.83 万吨，环比上升 0.45 万吨，涨幅为 0.2%，低于前期的 0.35%的增幅。五大材总产量 808.02 万吨，环比 0.9%，增量主要来自长材端。 长材产量合计 276.4 万吨，环比 3%；板材产量合计 531.62 万吨，环比-0.14%。 前期吨钢利润的逐步恢复促进钢厂复产，分品种来看，螺纹钢增产明显，热卷 产量回落。本周螺纹钢、线材、中厚板、热轧板卷、冷轧板卷的周度产量分别 为 194.23 万吨、82.17 万吨、145.77 万吨、301.28 万吨、84.57 万吨，环比分 别为 3.36%、2.06%、-0.05%、-0.29%、0.28%。本周铁水产量连续第三周回 升，长流程钢厂复产稳步 ...

2024 年 09 月 22 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 美联储降息落地，市场情绪边际改善 策略周报 分析师：郝一凡 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 1、《节前情绪低迷，量价再临冰点 —策 略周报》2024-09-17 2、《沪指跌破 2800，情绪低迷待政策信 号—策略周报》2024-09-08 3、《月末超跌修复，银行板块大幅回 落—策略周报》2024-09-01 4、《成交延续低迷，仍待政策破局—策 略周报》2024-08-24 5、《A 股再现地量，继续保持耐心—策 略周报》2024-08-18 投资要点 基本面回顾与资产配置展望：美联储降息落地，50BP 降息幅度相对偏大，且美 联储主席鲍威尔否认经济衰退，提振全球风险偏好；国内经济通胀数据延续低迷， 政策加码的必要性提升，但 LPR 按兵不动显示出政策仍有定力，需耐心等待增量政 策落地。 A 股市场回顾与展望：上周（9 月 18 日-9 月 20 日）A 股市场成交活跃度有所回 升，两市成交额从低位回升至 5626 亿元，较前一周增加 433 亿元 ...

2024 年 09 月 20 日 证券研究报告 | 银行理财周报 美联储降息是否会影响银行理财产品收益？ 银行理财产品周数据 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

2024 年 09 月 19 日 证券研究报告 | 产业点评报告 全国碳交易扩容，加快钢铁行业绿色转型 ——《全国碳排放权交易市场覆盖水泥、钢铁、 电解铝行业工作方案（征求意见稿）》解读 碳交易扩容点评 分析师登记编码：S0890521080001 电话：021-20321304 邮箱：zhangjin@cnhbstock.com 碳交易对钢铁行业的影响：《意见稿》将"2.6 万吨二氧化碳当量"作为纳入 全国碳市场的钢铁行业重点排放单位门槛，相当于将国内钢铁冶炼企业全部纳 入全国碳市场。届时，我国钢铁行业将由地方碳市场转向全国碳市场，根据环 球零碳研究中心预测，预计覆盖钢铁冶炼企业数量由60余家增加至560家左右， 覆盖钢铁碳排放规模由 2 亿吨扩容至近 18 亿吨左右。碳交易对钢铁行业影响主 要体现在：1）促进钢铁行业绿色低碳转型；2）促进传统设备的升级改造和电 炉钢的发展；3）促进企业兼并重组。 邮箱：wuhan@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 资料来源：iFind，华宝证券研究创新部 相关研究报告 1、《铁矿发运量明显下滑 12.26%，需 求小幅回升 0.78%—铁矿行业周度报告 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a low market sentiment with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 2800, indicating a need for policy signals to improve the situation [1][4] - The A-share market experienced a significant decline in trading volume, dropping to 519.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 67.5 billion yuan from the previous week, reflecting a continued lack of market activity [4][12] - The report notes that the overall market is characterized by weak performance in large-cap stocks and a lack of sustainable opportunities across various sectors, leading to a persistent loss effect [4][13] Group 2 - The report indicates that U.S. inflation data was slightly stronger than expected, reducing concerns about an economic recession, while the domestic economic inflation data remains low, increasing the necessity for policy measures [4][15] - A significant increase in A-share risk premium was observed, reaching a new high for the year, as the equity market remains weak and the bond market rises [8][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming policy signals, particularly the LPR quotation on September 20, which could influence market sentiment amid expectations of potential interest rate cuts and fiscal measures [15]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The annualized yield of cash management financial products has decreased to 1.71%, down 3 basis points from the previous week [1][7]. - The annualized yield of money market funds is at 1.52%, also down 1 basis point from the previous week, with a yield gap of 19 basis points between cash management products and money market funds, narrowing by 2 basis points [1][7]. - The annualized yield for closed-end fixed-income financial products over the past six months is 3.67%, an increase of 8 basis points from the previous week [2][9]. - The annualized yield for closed-end fixed-income financial products over the past year is 3.25%, up 1 basis point from the previous week [2][9]. - The average compliance rate for financial products maturing from September 2 to September 8, 2024, is 53%, an increase of 8% from the previous week [11][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Cash Management Products 7-Day Annualized Yield - As of September 8, 2024, the 7-day annualized yield for cash management financial products is 1.71%, a decrease of 3 basis points from the previous week [1][7]. 2. Performance Review of Financial Products - The annualized yield for daily open fixed-income non-cash financial products over the past month is 2.17%, unchanged from the previous week [9]. - The annualized yield for closed-end fixed-income financial products over the past six months is 3.67%, an increase of 8 basis points [2][9]. - The annualized yield for closed-end fixed-income financial products over the past year is 3.25%, up 1 basis point [2][9]. 3. Maturity and Compliance Status of Financial Products - From September 2 to September 8, 2024, the total scale of maturing financial products is 290.3 billion, with an average compliance rate of 53%, up 8% from the previous week [11][12]. - The compliance rate for closed-end products is 76%, which is higher than the overall compliance rate [11][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore industry is "Recommended" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The iron ore supply has shown a significant decline in shipments, down 12.26%, while demand has slightly increased by 0.78% [1] - The overall supply-demand balance remains loose, with high port inventories continuing to exert pressure on iron ore prices, which are expected to remain weak and volatile in the near term [3][4] Supply Summary - During the week of August 31 to September 6, the total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 22.947 million tons, a decrease of 3.207 million tons from the previous week, representing a decline of 12.26% [1] - The shipment volumes from major miners to China were as follows: Rio Tinto at 4.319 million tons (-14.29%), BHP at 4.939 million tons (+3.07%), Vale at 5.34 million tons (-31.98%), and FMG at 4.247 million tons (+33.64%) [1][6] - The total port inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports reached 154 million tons, an increase of 365,700 tons (0.24%) from the previous week [3][5] Demand Summary - The average daily iron water production has rebounded to 2.2261 million tons, marking a 0.78% increase, ending a six-week decline [1][7] - The average daily consumption of imported iron ore was 2.7403 million tons, reflecting a slight increase of 0.68% [7] - The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces increased to 83.6%, up 0.64 percentage points, indicating a recovery in steel production [7] Price and Profitability Summary - The average price index for iron ore (62% Fe: CFR: Qingdao Port) was $92.79 per ton, down $7.84 (7.79%) from the previous week [1][7] - The profitability rate of steel enterprises rose to 4.33%, showing improvement in the financial health of the sector [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the magnesium alloy industry is "Recommended" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The overall profitability growth of the magnesium alloy sector is slowing, with research and development capabilities becoming key to unlocking growth potential [2][3] - Companies are actively expanding their research and market development, focusing on applications in hydrogen storage, automotive lightweighting, and low-altitude aviation components [3][36] Summary by Sections 1. Performance of Magnesium Alloy Listed Companies in H1 2024 - The revenue of Baowu Magnesium Industry in H1 2024 was 4.075 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.37%, while net profit decreased by 1.28% to 120 million [8] - Wan Feng Ao Wei reported revenue of 7.372 billion, a decrease of 1.8%, but net profit increased by 24.93% to 398 million [8] - Xingyuan Zhuo Magnesium achieved revenue of 183 million, a year-on-year increase of 7.11%, with net profit decreasing by 5% to 37 million [8] 2. R&D and Market Expansion - Companies are enhancing their technical and business research innovations, actively exploring domestic and international markets [3][36] - Baowu Magnesium has signed a strategic cooperation agreement for magnesium-based solid hydrogen storage, while Wan Feng Ao Wei focuses on lightweight automotive components and general aviation aircraft manufacturing [36][37] 3. Financial Stability and Cash Flow - The overall asset-liability ratio of the magnesium alloy industry remains stable, with Baowu Magnesium and Wan Feng Ao Wei around 50%, while Xingyuan Zhuo Magnesium operates with a low asset-liability ratio of 7.58% [23] - Cash flow in H1 2024 is generally sufficient but shows a downward trend compared to H1 2023, with Wan Feng Ao Wei reporting the highest operating cash flow of 485 million [29] 4. Investment Returns and Capital Operations - The return on assets (ROA) for the magnesium alloy sector ranges from 0.9% to 3.5%, while return on equity (ROE) is between 2% and 6%, indicating significant variation among companies [31] - Baowu Magnesium is actively advancing several self-built investment projects, including a high-performance magnesium alloy project with an expected investment return of 837 million [31][32]