证券研究报告 2026 年 02 月 01 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 房地产行业周报 1 月二手房成交强于新房 相关研究： 1.《周度观点：楼市进入传统淡季， 政策加码预期较强》 2026.1.25 ❑ 核心城市：1 月核心城市二手房成交同比增长，新房成交较弱 北京：根据 Wind 数据，北京近一周（1.24-1.30）二手房日均成交套数为 578 套（同比+397%），新房成交套数为 85 套(同比+565%)，同比大幅增长 主要受春节错位影响。若剔除春节因素，近一周二手房成交同比去年农历 同期+3.9%，新房成交同比去年农历同期-32.5%。单月来看，1 月二手房成 交套数同比+17.4%，新房成交同比-12.5%。 上海：根据 Wind 数据，上海近一周（1.24-1.30）二手房日均成交 797 套（同 比+806%），新房日均成交 221 套（同比+525%）。剔除春节错位影响后， 近一周二手房、新房日均成交较去年农历同期分别+1%、-27%。单月来看， 1 月二手房、新房成交套数同比分别为+17.6%、-5.3%，尤其是二手房连续 三个月保持在 2 万套以上的荣枯线，市场较为活跃。 深圳：根据 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced wide fluctuations after the "opening red" in January, with major indices showing mixed performance [2][10] - The manufacturing PMI fell below the boom-bust line in January, indicating a decline in economic activity [6][27] - The report suggests a long-term bullish outlook for the A-share market supported by favorable monetary policies and economic recovery [8][31] Market Performance - During the week of January 26-30, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component dropped by 1.62%, and the ChiNext Index saw a slight decline of 0.09% [3][10] - The largest weekly fluctuation was observed in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index, which experienced a 6.67% swing [10] - The overall market trend reflects increased volatility due to a stronger dollar and high index levels, leading to a demand for consolidation [13] Industry Analysis - Among the 31 first-level industries, the oil and petrochemical sector and telecommunications led with gains of 7.95% and 5.83%, respectively, while the defense and military industry and power equipment saw declines of -7.69% and -5.10% [4][20] - In the second-level industries, precious metals and oil service engineering had the highest weekly gains of 18.02% and 14.83%, while aerospace equipment II and military electronics II faced the largest declines of -15.78% and -8.45% [4][22] - The third-level industries showed gold and seeds leading with weekly increases of 18.22% and 15.02%, while aerospace equipment III and thermal power equipment had the largest drops of -15.78% and -9.93% [5][25] Macro Data - The manufacturing PMI for January was reported at 49.3%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, with the production index at 50.6% showing slight expansion [6][27][28] - The new orders index fell to 49.2%, suggesting a slowdown in market demand across various sectors [28] Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates a stable economic environment in 2026, supported by proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing, which is expected to sustain a "slow bull" market for A-shares [8][31] - Short-term market expectations remain strong, particularly in sectors related to "anti-involution," new productivity in AI and technology, and agriculture, which are expected to benefit from central bank policies [8][31]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The vaccine industry is currently facing short-term performance pressure due to weak demand and structural oversupply, with many companies experiencing declines or losses in performance [1][7][8] - Despite the challenges, innovation and international expansion are ongoing, providing potential for medium to long-term growth [1][8] - The industry is transitioning from scale expansion to innovation-driven growth, with policy, demand, and technology as the three main driving factors for development [8][24][26] Summary by Sections Domestic and International Vaccine Dynamics - Kanghua Biotech has initiated Phase I clinical trials for its six-valent norovirus vaccine, which theoretically can prevent over 90% of norovirus infections [1] - Wantai Biopharma's bivalent HPV vaccine has successfully passed the WHO PQ periodic review [1] - Zhifei Biological's application for clinical trials of a freeze-dried inactivated vaccine for Japanese encephalitis has been accepted [1] Performance Forecasts - Chengda Bio expects a 59.34%-63.98% decrease in net profit for 2025 compared to the previous year [1] - CanSino anticipates a revenue increase of 22.88%-27.61% for 2025, with a turnaround in net profit [1] - Watson Bio forecasts a revenue of 2.4-2.43 billion yuan for 2025, a decline of approximately 14.9%-13.9% [1] - Other companies like Kangtai Bio and Wantai Bio also expect significant declines in net profit for 2025 [1] Market Performance - The vaccine sector saw a decline of 1.65% last week, with the overall pharmaceutical industry down 3.31% [2][5] - The vaccine sector has experienced a cumulative decline of 10.08% since the beginning of 2025 [5][13] Valuation Metrics - The vaccine sector's PE (ttm) is 92.01X, down 1.88X from the previous week, while the PB (lf) is 1.78X, down 0.04X [6] - The PE is at the 55.99% percentile since 2013, and the PB is at the 1.28% percentile since 2013 [6] Investment Recommendations - The vaccine industry is still under pressure, but companies are actively adjusting their pipeline strategies, focusing on technological innovation and multi-valent products [7][8] - Long-term prospects remain positive due to innovation and international market expansion, with a recommendation to focus on companies with strong R&D capabilities and differentiated product offerings, such as CanSino [8][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the medical services industry [6][10]. Core Insights - The medical and biological sector experienced a decline of 3.31% this week, ranking 22nd among the 31 primary industries in the Shenwan index. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 0.08%, indicating that the medical sector underperformed by 3.39 percentage points [2][12]. - The newly revised "Regulations on the Implementation of the Drug Administration Law" will take effect on May 15, 2026, aiming to enhance drug research, registration, and production management, thereby fostering innovation in the pharmaceutical industry [5][61]. - The medical services sector's current Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is 33.87X, with a Price-to-Book (PB) ratio of 3.43X, reflecting a decrease from the previous week [4][30]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The medical services sub-sector closed at 7122.75 points, down 4.15% this week, while the overall medical and biological sector fell by 3.31% [2][24]. - Notable performers in the medical services sector included Tigermed (+4.3%) and Prasis (+2.3%), while underperformers included Bid Pharma (-15.2%) and Haoyuan Pharma (-12.8%) [3][28]. Valuation Metrics - The medical services sector's PE ratio has decreased by 1.43X from the previous week, while the PB ratio has dropped by 0.15X [4][30]. - The maximum and minimum PE ratios over the past year were 41.13X and 28.46X, respectively, while the PB ratios ranged from 4.00X to 2.48X [30][49]. Regulatory Developments - The new drug administration regulations aim to support drug innovation and streamline the drug approval process, including provisions for market exclusivity for certain drugs [5][63]. - The regulations are expected to stimulate the CXO (Contract Research Organization) industry, enhancing demand for preclinical research and clinical trials [9][63]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-growth areas such as ADC CDMO and peptide CDMO companies like WuXi AppTec and Haoyuan Pharma, as well as companies in the consumer healthcare sector like Aier Eye Hospital and Dian Diagnostics, which are expected to see improvements in profitability [10][64].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is upgraded to "Overweight" from "Buy" due to rapid valuation increases and optimistic expectations reflected in stock prices [5]. Core Insights - The tungsten industry has shown strong market performance with a significant valuation increase, outperforming the benchmark index [2]. - Domestic tungsten prices have reached historical highs, driven by tight supply at the mining level and rising prices for long-term contracts [3]. - The supply chain remains constrained by tight raw material availability, leading to limited demand release and reduced transaction volumes [6]. Price Statistics - In January 2026, the average price of 65% black tungsten concentrate increased by 26.69% month-on-month to 510,600 CNY/ton, and by 254.75% year-on-year, with the increase from December 2025 expanding by 72.05 percentage points [5]. - The average price of 65% white tungsten concentrate rose by 26.76% month-on-month to 508,700 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 256.66% [5]. - The average price of ammonium paratungstate (APT) increased by 26.2% month-on-month to 751,400 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 254.53% [5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of tungsten concentrate has slightly decreased, with weekly production dropping from 1,880 tons to 1,870 tons [6]. - The production of APT is estimated to increase by 5.88% in January 2026, but the overall supply remains constrained due to tight raw material availability [6]. - Demand is primarily driven by essential needs, with limited room for growth as rising raw material prices suppress downstream replenishment [6]. Profitability Analysis - Mining profits are expanding due to resource scarcity and price increases, with simulated gross profit for tungsten concentrate reaching 334,900 CNY/ton, a month-on-month increase of 40.77% [6]. - The midstream refining sector is also seeing steady profit growth, while downstream processing and alloy sectors are experiencing profit pressure due to lagging price transmission [6]. Investment Recommendations - The long-term outlook for the tungsten industry is positive, with supply constraints expected to strengthen due to declining ore grades and increased mining costs [6]. - Short-term expectations indicate that tight supply conditions will likely persist, supporting strong tungsten concentrate prices [6]. - Continued focus is recommended on companies with rich tungsten resources and integrated industrial layouts, particularly those investing in deep processing and emerging product areas [7].

晨 会 纪 要 [2026]第 19 号 李正威 邢维洁 马丽明 汪炜 聂孟依 张弛 王雪莹 整理记录：蒋栋 研究所今日晨会要点如下: 根据 Wind 数据，上周申万一级行业医药生物下跌 0.39%，涨幅排名位列申万 31 个一级行 业第 27 位。沪深 300 指数下跌 0.62%，医药跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.23 个百分点。申万医药 生物二级子行业医疗服务 II 报收 7280.46 点，下跌 2.17%；中药 II 报收 6350.32 点，上 涨 0.89%；化学制药Ⅱ报收 13328.75 点，下跌 1.11%；生物制品Ⅱ报收 6427.70 点，上涨 0.07%；医药商业Ⅱ报收 5457.63 点，上涨 4.26%；医疗器械 II 报收 6881.47 点，上涨 0.30%。 细分板块来看，医疗服务跌幅较大。 根据Wind数据，从医疗服务板块公司的表现来看，表现居前的公司有：诺禾致源（+11.5%）、 新里程（+9.4%）、迪安诊断（+8.2%）、ST 中珠（+7.1%）、光正眼科（+6.2%）；表现 靠后的公司有：博腾股份（-6.9%）、诚达药业（-6.6%）、药明康德（-6.4%）、美迪西 ...

晨 会 纪 要 [2026]第 17 号 主 题：对近期重要经济金融新闻、行业事件、公司公告等进行点评 时 间：2026 年 1 月 27 日 8:50-9:30 会议形式：腾讯会议 参会人员：曹旭特 仇华 许雯 王攀 蒋栋 轩鹏程 文正平 张智珑 郭怡萍 李育 文 李正威 邢维洁 马丽明 汪炜 聂孟依 张弛 整理记录：李正威 研究所今日晨会要点如下: 一、金融工程 1.1、ETF 市场跟踪与配置周报（李正威） 上周 ETF 市场概况 截至 2026 年 1 月 23 日，沪深两市共有 1419 只 ETF，资产管理总规模为 57783.49 亿元。 其中股票型 ETF 共 1102 只（35709.89 亿元），债券型 ETF 共 53 只（7345.75 亿元），货币 型 ETF 共 27 只（1548.63 亿元），商品型 ETF 共 17 只（3081.67 亿元），跨境 ETF 共 208 只（10023.22 亿元），未上市 ETF 共 12 只（74.34 亿元）。 在 2026 年 1 月 19 日至 2026 年 1 月 23 日，根据 Wind 数据，按照基金上市日，本周共 有 8 只 E ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3] Core Insights - The medical consumables sector saw a weekly increase of 1.72%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.23 percentage points [5][10] - The current PE ratio for the medical consumables sector is 37.73X, with a PB ratio of 2.71X, indicating a slight increase in valuation metrics compared to the previous week [6][18][20] Industry Performance - Over the past month, the medical consumables sector has shown a relative return of 9%, while the absolute return over the last 12 months is 22% [4] - The sector's performance is compared to other sub-sectors, with notable fluctuations in the medical and pharmaceutical industries [12] Industry Dynamics and Key Announcements - The 2026 National Health System Grassroots Health and Financial Work Conference emphasized the importance of strengthening basic medical services and expanding rehabilitation and nursing services, which is expected to drive demand for consumables [7][21] - The focus on grassroots healthcare institutions is anticipated to enhance the demand for consumables related to common and chronic diseases, as well as rehabilitation equipment [21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with strong cost control and innovation capabilities, particularly in the context of ongoing procurement normalization [8][23] - Companies with a diverse product line and strong market presence in high-value consumables, such as HuiTai Medical and MaiPu Medical, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [8][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the in vitro diagnostics industry [4][54]. Core Views - The in vitro diagnostics industry is stabilizing due to policy and technological advancements, including the accelerated integration of AI in diagnostics, the implementation of price reforms, and the stabilization of centralized procurement impacts [4][54]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on specific growth areas within the industry, such as chemiluminescence in immunodiagnostics and PCR in molecular diagnostics, with companies like YHLO and Shengxiang Bio being recommended for attention [4][54]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The pharmaceutical and biological sector decreased by 0.39%, while the in vitro diagnostics sector increased by 0.42% during the week [1][20]. - The in vitro diagnostics sector's PE ratio is currently at 40.90X, with a recent increase of 0.17X, and the PB ratio is at 1.87X, up by 0.01X from the previous week [3][30]. Key Developments - AI diagnostics are evolving from auxiliary tools to core components of clinical processes, enhancing diagnostic efficiency and driving industry modernization [4][54]. - The Chongqing Medical Insurance Bureau has introduced a price reform draft for pathological services, which is expected to enhance the value recognition of diagnostic services [4][54]. - The impact of centralized procurement is stabilizing, with price pressures gradually easing and testing volumes expected to stabilize following the unbundling of service packages [4][54]. Company Performance - Notable companies in the medical services sector include Aotai Bio (+7.9%), Saikexide (+4.5%), and Mingde Bio (+4.0%), while underperformers include Rejing Bio (-8.7%) and Botuo Bio (-3.3%) [2][25]. - The report suggests that the domestic biochemical diagnostics sector has largely overcome foreign constraints, indicating a completed localization process [4][54].

Investment Rating - The industry maintains an "Overweight" rating [9] Core Views - The report highlights the performance of the traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) sector, noting a 0.89% increase in the TCM II index, making it the second-best performing sub-sector in the pharmaceutical industry [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of the 2025 performance outlook and the progress of the essential drug catalog adjustments, with many companies showing positive profit growth [6] - The report suggests that the TCM industry may continue to experience structural differentiation, with companies focusing on external markets and innovation to find new growth points [6] Market Performance - The TCM II index closed at 6406.83 points, up 0.89% for the week, while the overall pharmaceutical index fell by 0.39% [3] - The best-performing companies in the TCM sector included *ST Changyao, ST Xiangxue, and Fangsheng Pharmaceutical, while the worst performers included Zhenbaodao and Pianzaihuang [3] Valuation - The TCM sector's PE (ttm) was 27.34X, up 0.23X week-on-week, with a PB (lf) of 2.3X, also showing a slight increase [4] - The PE is at the 28.89% percentile since 2013, while the PB is at the 5.74% percentile [4] Raw Material Market - The TCM raw material index rose by 1.1% due to increased demand for tonic herbs and price hikes in certain materials [5] - The overall market for TCM materials remains volatile, with a notable increase in demand for tonic herbs [5] Investment Suggestions - The report recommends focusing on three main investment themes: price governance, consumption recovery, and state-owned enterprise reform [7] - Specific investment targets include companies with strong R&D capabilities, those less affected by centralized procurement, and brands with strong market presence [13]