证券研究报告 2025 年 10 月 26 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 银行业周报 关注信贷需求修复 | 1. | 《2025年中期策略-价值重估仍 | | --- | --- | | 在进行时》 | 2025.07.02 | | 2. | 《业绩底部修复，配置价值提 | | 升》 | 2025.09.05 | 近十二个月行业表现 | % | 1 | 个月 | 3 | 个月 | 12 | 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对收益 | 2.7 | | | -15.8 | | -5.6 | | 绝对收益 | 4.8 | | -3.5 | | | 13.0 | 分析师：郭怡萍 证书编号：S0500523080002 Tel：(8621) 50295327 Email：guoyp@xcsc.com 国人寿金融中心10楼 相关研究： 核心要点： 政策性金融工具助力提振信贷需求 据央视网，截至目前，国家开发银行、中国农业发展银行、中国进出口银 行三家政策性银行新型政策性金融工具共计投放超 3300 亿元。 行业评级：增持（维持） 2025 年 9 月 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [4][11][28] Core Insights - The vaccine industry is currently transitioning from scale expansion to innovation-driven growth, facing short-term pain due to supply-demand imbalance and homogenized competition, but the long-term outlook remains positive driven by policy, demand, and technology [10][11][28][30] - Recent regulatory updates, such as the revised vaccine circulation quality supervision measures in Shandong Province, highlight ongoing improvements in vaccine safety mechanisms and regulatory frameworks [6][10] - The approval of innovative vaccines, like the freeze-dried Hib vaccine, reflects the continuous progress of domestic vaccine companies [6][10] Market Performance - The vaccine sector saw a 0.78% increase last week, with a cumulative decline of 4.83% since the beginning of 2025 [7][13] - The relative performance compared to the CSI 300 index shows a decline of 3% over the past month and 30% over the past year [6][9] Valuation Metrics - The vaccine sector's PE (ttm) is 100.69X, with a year-to-date maximum of 111.89X and a minimum of 28.67X, indicating a slight increase from the previous period [9][22] - The PB (lf) stands at 1.85X, with a year-to-date maximum of 2.29X and a minimum of 1.69X, reflecting a stable valuation range [9][22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong R&D capabilities and differentiated product lines, recommending companies like CanSino and Kanghua Biotech for their innovation and market positioning [10][11][30]

Group 1 - The median return of active quantitative funds for the week of October 20-24, 2025, was 3.25%, while the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index returned 3.24% and the Wind All A Index returned 3.47% [3][8] - For the year, the median return of active quantitative funds was 27.54%, compared to 18.44% for the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index and 25.86% for the Wind All A Index [3][8] - The top-performing active quantitative funds this week had returns between 9% and 18%, primarily concentrated in the electronics sector, while the underperforming funds had returns between -1% and -3%, mainly focused on the food and beverage sector [3][4][8] Group 2 - The "Super Expectation Stock Selection Strategy" constructs a stock pool based on net profit exceeding expectations and analyst expectations, using the Wind All A Index as the base stock pool [5][14] - This week, the selected strategy yielded a return of 5.48%, outperforming the benchmark index (Wind All A Index) by 2.01% [5][16] - For the year, the selected strategy achieved a return of 46.03%, significantly higher than the benchmark index's return of 25.86%, resulting in an excess return of 20.17% [5][20] Group 3 - The top 30 selected stocks for October 2025 are concentrated in the electronics sector, with the highest return stock being Andar Intelligent (688125.SH) at 18.64%, categorized under mechanical equipment and automation equipment [6][21] - The report highlights that the active quantitative funds with higher returns are predominantly invested in the electronics sector [6][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of analyzing unexpected earnings and their impact on stock price movements, indicating a significant drift pattern following earnings announcements [14][15]

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of the CSI 1000 Index in 2025, driven by its focus on small-cap companies in sectors such as new energy, semiconductors, and medical devices [5][20] - The report indicates that the CSI 1000 Index has shown significant returns, ranking in the middle among major indices for the year, with a year-to-date return of 31.03%, outperforming the benchmark by 6.50% [4][16] Market Performance - For the week of October 20-24, 2025, the top-performing indices were the ChiNext Index and the Sci-Tech 50 Index, with returns of 8.05% and 7.27% respectively, while the lowest were the CSI Dividend and SSE 50 indices, with returns of 1.05% and 2.63% [3][7] - Year-to-date, the Micro-Cap Index and ChiNext Index led with returns of 66.54% and 48.09%, while the CSI Dividend and SSE 50 indices lagged with returns of 1.32% and 13.45% [8] Strategy Performance - The CSI 1000 Index enhancement strategy yielded a return of 3.55% for the week, surpassing the index return of 3.25% by 0.30% [4][13] - For the month, the strategy achieved a return of 0.18%, while the index returned -2.06%, resulting in an excess return of 2.24% [15] - Year-to-date, the strategy's return was 31.03%, compared to the index's 24.53%, leading to an excess return of 6.50% [16] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the CSI 1000 Index remains a strong investment opportunity due to its strategic positioning in high-growth sectors and favorable policy signals following the recent political meetings [5][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of adjusting asset allocations towards lower volatility assets as the year-end approaches, while remaining cautious of the inherent volatility in the CSI 1000 Index [5][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the robotics industry [8] Core Insights - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has officially included "humanoid robots" in its strategic focus, marking a significant elevation of this sector within national technology strategy [3][4] - The year 2025 is designated as the "Year of Mass Production" for humanoid robots, indicating a shift towards policy orders and performance realization for companies that pass scene acceptance tests [6][7] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the robotics sector has shown a relative return of 35.9% compared to the CSI 300 index, with an absolute return of 53.2% [2] Government and Policy Support - The Chinese government is committed to fostering a robust innovation ecosystem for artificial intelligence, with a focus on breakthroughs in foundational models and humanoid robots [4] - By the end of 2024, the number of AI companies is expected to exceed 4,500, indicating rapid growth in the industry [4] Investment Recommendations - Investment in humanoid robots should focus on three main areas: technological breakthroughs, application scenarios, and global expansion [7][18] - Companies like Greentec Harmonics and Guomao Co. are highlighted for their contributions to the humanoid robotics sector [7][18]

Group 1: Machinery Industry - In September 2025, the total sales of excavators in China increased by 25.4% year-on-year, with domestic sales and exports growing by 21.5% and 29.0% respectively. For the first nine months, total excavator sales rose by 18.1% year-on-year, with domestic sales and exports increasing by 21.5% and 14.6% respectively [2] - In September 2025, the total sales of loaders in China increased by 30.5% year-on-year, with domestic sales and exports growing by 25.6% and 35.3% respectively. For the first nine months, total loader sales rose by 14.6% year-on-year, with domestic sales and exports increasing by 20.7% and 8.3% respectively [2] - The growth in sales for earth-moving machinery is attributed to increased sales efforts by manufacturers, accelerated exports of second-hand equipment, and a low base from the previous year. Future growth in domestic sales is expected to continue due to ongoing demand for equipment updates and contributions from new projects [2] - The overseas market is anticipated to maintain growth driven by demand from emerging markets in Africa and mineral-rich countries like Indonesia and Australia, alongside domestic manufacturers accelerating their international expansion [2] Group 2: Lithium Battery Equipment - In September 2025, the production of power batteries in China increased by 35.4% year-on-year, with a total installed capacity of 76.0 GWh, reflecting a 39.5% year-on-year growth. For the first nine months, the cumulative installed capacity reached 493.9 GWh, up 42.5% year-on-year, while total production grew by 51.4% to 1121.9 GWh [3] - The growth in power battery production is driven by the rapid increase in new energy vehicle sales, which reached approximately 1.604 million units in September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 24.6% [3] - Future growth in the new energy vehicle market is expected to continue, supported by policy incentives and technological advancements, which will also drive demand for lithium battery equipment [3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The manufacturing PMI in China rose by 0.4 percentage points to 49.8% in September 2025, indicating improvements in production, new orders, and new export orders, suggesting a recovery in both supply and demand in the manufacturing sector [4] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for the machinery industry, particularly recommending the engineering machinery sector, which is expected to see sustained growth in performance due to the resonance of domestic and international demand [5] - The lithium battery equipment sector is also highlighted for its potential growth driven by rapid end-user demand and technological advancements leading to equipment upgrades [5]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that China's "carbon peak" is closely related to the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) [3][11][12] - The third round of NDC announced by President Xi Jinping expands the scope to cover all economic sectors and sets absolute reduction targets for greenhouse gas emissions [13][12] - The report indicates that while China's carbon emissions continue to rise, the growth rate is showing signs of convergence [5][9] Industry Analysis - As of Q3 2025, certain industries such as cement, aluminum, electricity, and steel are nearing or have achieved carbon peaking, while sectors like transportation and petrochemicals face significant challenges [6][24][25] - The report outlines that achieving carbon peaking in high-energy-consuming industries will require deep decarbonization, technological innovation, and capacity optimization [27][30] - The transition to a cleaner energy system is highlighted as a priority, with increased investments in non-fossil energy sources, including large-scale wind and solar projects, and upgrades to smart grid systems [6][29] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors that have undergone significant adjustments, such as banking and insurance, as well as areas related to environmental protection and renewable energy [30] - It is anticipated that carbon peaking-related investment directions will become a major focus as the "14th Five-Year Plan" is implemented [30]

Automotive Industry - The core point of the report highlights the impressive performance of the Chinese automotive industry in the first three quarters of 2025, with strong growth in new energy vehicles (NEVs) [3][4] - In the first three quarters of 2025, production and sales of NEVs exceeded 11.24 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 35.2% and 34.9% respectively, with a penetration rate of 46.1% [4] - In September 2025, NEV production and sales reached 1.617 million and 1.604 million units, showing a month-on-month increase of 16.3% and 15%, and a year-on-year increase of 23.7% and 24.6% [4] - The export volume of automobiles in the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 14.8% year-on-year, with a total export of 4.95 million vehicles [4] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the NEV supply chain and those with overseas market presence, as the increasing penetration rate of NEVs will drive the collaborative development of the entire industry chain [4][5] Investment Recommendations - The report indicates that the automotive sector is experiencing a resonance phase between new product cycles and technological advancements, particularly in smart driving and smart cockpit technologies, which are expected to drive continuous sales growth [5] - Continuous policy support for automotive consumption and the rising penetration rate of NEVs provide a broad market space for vehicle manufacturers [5] - In the components sector, the rapid increase in the penetration of smart components such as smart cockpits and electric drive systems is expected to benefit related companies [5] - The report maintains an "overweight" rating for the automotive industry, recommending attention to quality companies in the sector, such as Shuanghuan Transmission and Beite Technology [5] New Materials - The report notes a slight increase of 0.05% in the rare earth magnetic materials industry, outperforming the benchmark by 2.27 percentage points [7] - The prices of rare earth concentrates have accelerated their decline, with specific price drops reported for various rare earth minerals [9] - The report highlights the need to monitor the demand side closely, as the market's just-in-time transactions are primarily driven by basic needs, with expectations for demand to improve in the coming months [10] Medical Services - The report indicates a decline of 2.48% in the pharmaceutical and biological sector, with the medical services sub-sector experiencing a significant drop of 5.21% [11][12] - The current PE ratio for the medical services sector is 34.96, with a recent decrease of 1.96 from the previous week [13][14] - The report emphasizes the potential of ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugates) and CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) in the innovative drug sector, projecting significant growth in the ADC outsourcing market [15][16] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for the medical services industry, recommending attention to high-growth companies and those with improving expectations, such as WuXi AppTec and Aier Eye Hospital [17] ETF Market Overview - As of October 17, 2025, there are 1,328 ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, with a total asset management scale of 55,264.48 billion [19] - The report notes that the average weekly change in shares for stock ETFs was an increase of 27.63 million shares, with significant increases in bank and brokerage ETFs [20] - The report recommends focusing on the automotive, coal, and agriculture sectors within the PB-ROE framework for ETF rotation strategies, highlighting the potential for these sectors to outperform [24]

Macroeconomic Information and Commentary - In the first three quarters, China's GDP reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2%. The quarterly growth rates were 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, and 4.8% in Q3 [3] - From January to September, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 6.2% year-on-year, while fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3,715.35 billion yuan, down 0.5% year-on-year. Private investment decreased by 3.1% [3] - The retail sales of consumer goods totaled 4,197.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.0% [3] Industry and Company Analysis Medical Consumables Industry - The sixth batch of medical consumables national procurement introduced new regulations, including the concept of "anchor price" for price difference calculation, aiming to stabilize expectations and prevent vicious competition [7][8] - The focus of this procurement includes drug-coated balloons and urological intervention materials, with a trend towards quality competition rather than just low prices [7][8] - High-value consumables companies are gradually digesting the performance pressure from procurement, with recent innovations and overseas business developments expected to provide new growth points [9] - The medical consumables industry is rated as "overweight," with recommendations to focus on companies with rich product lines and high innovation levels [11] In Vitro Diagnostics Industry - Samsung has partnered with Grail to enter the multi-cancer early detection market, investing 783 million yuan (110 million USD) [15] - The IVD market is undergoing a transformation, with challenges from price controls and procurement affecting short-term performance, but long-term growth is anticipated [17] - The IVD industry is rated as "overweight," with a focus on immunodiagnostics and molecular diagnostics sectors [17] Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry - The Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) sector saw a slight increase of 0.38% amidst an overall decline in the pharmaceutical sector [19] - A pilot program for disease-based payment for TCM is set to begin, which may enhance the reimbursement for TCM services [23] - The TCM industry is rated as "overweight," with investment recommendations focusing on companies with strong R&D capabilities and unique products [24]

Group 1: Electronics Industry - The electronics industry experienced a decline of 7.14% last week, with semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors down by 6.53% and 9.10% respectively [2][3] - TSMC reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, with revenue reaching NT$989.92 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.3%, and net profit of NT$452.3 billion, up 39.1% [4][5] - TSMC's advanced process technology accounted for over 70% of its wafer revenue, with strong demand for AI driving growth, particularly in high-performance computing (HPC) [4][5] - The forecast for TSMC's Q4 sales is between $32.2 billion and $33.4 billion, exceeding market expectations, with a projected annual sales growth of approximately 30% for 2025 [4][5] - Investment opportunities are seen in AI infrastructure, edge SOCs, and the supply chain for foldable smartphones, with specific companies recommended for investment [6] Group 2: Robotics Industry - The launch of the new industrial-grade interactive robot, ZhiYuan Spirit G2, marks a significant advancement in embodied intelligence technology, featuring high-performance motion joints and advanced spatial perception systems [8][9] - The ZhiYuan Spirit G2 is designed for various applications, including industrial operations, logistics, and home services, showcasing its versatility and potential for smart transformation across industries [9][10] - Investment focus in the humanoid robot sector should be on technological breakthroughs, application scenarios, and global expansion, with specific companies highlighted for their innovative capabilities [11] Group 3: Vaccine Industry - The vaccine industry is facing challenges with a 3.29% decline last week, with significant drops in various sub-sectors, while the overall performance since the beginning of 2025 shows a cumulative decline of 5.56% [14][15] - Recent approvals for clinical trials of innovative vaccines, including a trivalent influenza vaccine and mRNA therapeutic vaccines, indicate ongoing advancements in domestic mRNA technology [13][17] - The vaccine sector is undergoing structural differentiation, with a focus on innovation and international expansion as key strategies for long-term growth [17][18]