Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The vaccine industry is experiencing performance pressure while pipeline advancements continue, indicating a need to focus on structural opportunities [1][7] - The industry is transitioning from scale expansion to innovation-driven growth, facing short-term challenges due to supply-demand imbalances and intense competition [8][24] - Long-term growth is supported by policy, demand, and technology as key drivers for the vaccine industry [8][24] Summary by Sections Recent Industry Performance - The vaccine sector has seen a cumulative decline of 9.01% since 2025, with a recent weekly drop of 3.43% [4][10] - Relative performance against the CSI 300 index shows a 12-month relative return of -27% [3] Company Developments - Zhifei Biological's CA111 injection has entered Phase I clinical trials, targeting diabetes and weight loss with a dual agonist mechanism [3] - Baihui Biological's human diploid rabies vaccine has received clinical trial approval [3] - Zhifei Biological and Baike Biological both forecast significant losses for 2025, with Zhifei expecting a net loss of 10.698 to 13.726 billion yuan, a decline of 630%-780% year-on-year [3] - Baike Biological anticipates a net loss of 220.64% to 194.79% compared to the previous year [3] Market Dynamics - The vaccine industry is characterized by high levels of Me-too products, leading to intense competition and price declines [7][23] - The approval of 14 new vaccines in 2025, including rabies and HPV vaccines, indicates ongoing innovation, although many face issues of homogeneity [3][7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with high technical barriers and differentiated pipelines to find alpha opportunities within the industry [8][24] - Companies like CanSino and Kanghua Biological are highlighted for their potential due to their innovative capabilities and market positioning [8][24]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - PB-ROE framework's ETF rotation strategy recommends next week to focus on the communication, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and transportation industries, corresponding to their industry ETFs; the ETF redemption sentiment indicator model suggests focusing on the Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF, SSE 50 ETF, Medical ETF, Photovoltaic ETF, and Robot ETF [9][40] - Combining PB and ROE for industry configuration may be a better choice; the third quadrant's high PB high ROE and the fifth quadrant's low PB medium ROE are key focus areas; combining the third and fifth quadrants to construct a comprehensive PB-ROE strategy has an annualized return of 11.93% and an annualized excess return of 13.22% [32][33] Summary by Directory 1. Recent Market Overview (January 12 - January 16, 2026) - Index performance: Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4101.91, down 0.45% for the week; Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14281.08, up 1.14%; ChiNext Index closed at 3361.02, up 1.00%; Beijing Stock Exchange 50 closed at 1548.33, up 1.58%; Hang Seng Index closed at 26844.96, up 2.34%. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 34250.96 billion yuan, and the total trading volume for the week was 17.13 trillion yuan [12] - Industry performance: Among 31 Shenwan primary industries, 13 industries rose and 18 fell. The top three gainers were computer (up 3.82%), electronics (up 3.77%), and non-ferrous metals (up 3.03%); the top three losers were national defense and military industry (down 4.92%), real estate (down 3.52%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (down 3.27%) [5][12] - Main funds: Main funds had net outflows for 5 trading days and no net inflows, with a total net outflow of 2752.39 billion yuan for the week. The industries with more net inflows were banks, public utilities, and coal; the industries with more net outflows were national defense and military industry, power equipment, and computer [5][13] 2. Recent ETF Market Performance (January 12 - January 16, 2026) - Overall situation: As of January 16, 2026, there were 1411 ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, with a total asset management scale of 60766.01 billion yuan. There were 1101 equity ETFs (38892.41 billion yuan), 53 bond ETFs (7479.66 billion yuan), 27 money market ETFs (1529.88 billion yuan), 17 commodity ETFs (2751.84 billion yuan), 207 cross-border ETFs (10070.46 billion yuan), and 6 unlisted ETFs (41.76 billion yuan) [20] - Newly listed and established ETFs: 8 ETFs were newly listed, all equity ETFs; 7 ETFs were newly established, with a total issuance scale of 51.24 billion yuan [21] - Equity ETFs: The median weekly increase or decrease was 0.59%. Science and technology semiconductor ETFs and semiconductor equipment ETFs performed well, with the Science and Technology Semiconductor ETF Peng Hua rising the most at 12.46%; aerospace and high-end equipment ETFs performed poorly, with the Aerospace ETF falling the most at 6.88%. The average weekly share change was a decrease of 19.4716 million shares. Software ETFs and media ETFs had more share increases, while the Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF and CSI 300 ETF had more share decreases [24] - Bond ETFs: The median weekly increase or decrease of 53 bond ETFs was 0.12%. The convertible bond ETF had the highest increase of 0.91%, while the science and technology innovation bond ETF had the highest decrease of 0.00%. As of January 16, 2026, the Haifutong CSI Short-term Financing ETF had the largest scale of 631.50 billion yuan [27] - Cross-border ETFs: The median weekly increase or decrease was 1.18%. The China-South Korea Semiconductor ETF and Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF had the highest increases, with the China-South Korea Semiconductor ETF rising 6.11%; the Hong Kong Securities ETF and Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF had the highest decreases, with the Hong Kong Securities ETF falling 2.28%. Since the beginning of the year, the median increase or decrease was 3.82%, with the China-South Korea Semiconductor ETF and Hong Kong Medical ETF having higher increases, and the Nasdaq ETF and Nasdaq Technology ETF having higher decreases [29] 3. PB-ROE Framework's ETF Rotation Strategy Tracking - Factor effectiveness: PB factor and PB quantile factor show certain stratification ability, and PB quantile factor is more effective; ROE factor's effectiveness declined after 2018; using ROE factor is better than ROE quantile factor; expected ROE factor is better than expected ROE year-on-year factor. Combining PB and ROE for industry configuration may be a better choice [32] - Key quadrants: The third quadrant's high PB high ROE and the fifth quadrant's low PB medium ROE are key focus areas. From 2017 to February 2024, the compound annualized excess returns of the third and fifth quadrant portfolios were 4.27% and 1.55% respectively [32] - Strategy improvement: After supplementing the PB-ROE framework with four dimensions, the annualized excess returns of the third and fifth quadrant strategies were 4.78% and 3.94% respectively. Combining the two strategies, the annualized return was 11.93% and the annualized excess return was 13.22% [33] - Recent performance: This week, the strategy focused on the communication, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and transportation industries, with a cumulative return of -0.86%, and an excess return of -0.29% compared to the CSI 300 Index [8][34] - Performance since 2023: The cumulative return was 26.03%, with an excess return of 3.81% compared to the CSI 300 Index [8][36] - Performance since 2022: The cumulative return was 7.77%, with an excess return of 11.99% compared to the CSI 300 Index [39] 4. Investment Recommendations - PB-ROE framework: Focus on the communication, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and transportation industries next week, corresponding to their industry ETFs [9][40] - ETF redemption sentiment indicator model: Focus on the Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF, SSE 50 ETF, Medical ETF, Photovoltaic ETF, and Robot ETF next week [9][40]

证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 17 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 医疗服务行业周报 政策力促银发经济升级，两大方向直接受益 --医疗服务行业周报 1.12-1.16 相关研究： 核心要点： 本周医药生物下跌 0.68%，涨跌幅排名位列申万一级行业第 19 位 根据 Wind 数据，本周申万一级行业医药生物下跌 0.68%，涨幅排名位列申 万 31 个一级行业第 19 位。沪深 300 指数下跌 0.57%，医药跑输沪深 300 指数 0.11 个百分点。申万医药生物二级子行业医疗服务 II 报收 7048.32 点，上涨 3.29%；中药 II 报收 6414.65 点，下跌 1.00%；化学制药Ⅱ报收 13656.41 点，下跌 2.40%；生物制品Ⅱ报收 6506.32 点，下跌 1.21%；医 药商业Ⅱ报收 5587.64 点，下跌 2.33%；医疗器械 II 报收 6896.75 点，下 跌 0.22%。 根据 Wind 数据，从医疗服务板块公司的表现来看，表现居前的公司有： 美年健康（+25.0%）、迪安诊断（+16.3%）、泓博医药（+13.0%）、兰卫医 学（+12.2%）、诺思格（+1 ...

Industry Overview - The report highlights the ongoing upward trend in copper prices, although there is a temporary backwardation in the spot market, indicating a potential short-term adjustment rather than a definitive price reversal [3] - Supply growth for copper is maintained, but the cumulative growth rate has decreased month-on-month, while demand is affected by the reduction of national subsidies, particularly in the white goods sector [3] - The report maintains a bullish outlook on copper prices due to persistent supply-demand tightness, despite concerns over tariffs and geopolitical tensions [3][4] Aluminum Market Insights - Aluminum prices continue to rise, accompanied by a temporary backwardation, with the price spread between electrolytic aluminum and alumina widening [4] - The demand for aluminum remains stable, particularly in the automotive sector, although growth rates are slowing in new energy vehicles and photovoltaic installations [5] - The report anticipates that aluminum prices will remain high in 2026, with a bullish outlook on electrolytic aluminum prices and a bearish view on alumina prices [5] Platinum and Palladium Analysis - Platinum prices surged in December, with futures exceeding 700 RMB per gram, driven by strong demand from the automotive sector [6] - The supply of platinum is concentrated in South Africa, leading to a tight balance between supply and demand, with a cautious bullish outlook for 2026 [6] - Palladium prices also rose sharply, but the demand is weakening due to the decline in gasoline vehicle markets, leading to a neutral to bearish outlook for palladium prices [6][7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a bullish stance on copper and aluminum prices, a cautious bullish view on platinum, and a neutral to bearish outlook on palladium [9] - Investment targets include upstream leaders in the copper sector, particularly those engaged in copper mine acquisitions, and companies in the electrolytic aluminum segment [9] - The report maintains an "overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [9] Banking Sector Insights - The central bank's recent meeting emphasized maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on optimizing financial services for high-quality economic development [11] - The report indicates a stabilization of credit market interest rates, with a shift from quantity growth to quality improvement in bank credit [12] - The banking sector is expected to benefit from stable interest margins and high dividend yields in a low-interest-rate environment, with recommendations for state-owned banks and regional banks [13]

Group 1: Machinery Industry - In December 2025, the total sales of excavators in China increased by 19.2% year-on-year, with domestic sales and exports growing by 10.9% and 26.9% respectively. For the entire year of 2025, total excavator sales rose by 17.0%, with domestic and export sales increasing by 17.9% and 16.1% respectively [2] - In December 2025, total sales of loaders in China grew by 30.0% year-on-year, with domestic sales and exports increasing by 17.6% and 41.5% respectively. For the full year of 2025, total loader sales increased by 18.4%, with domestic and export sales rising by 22.1% and 14.6% respectively [2] - The growth in excavator and loader sales is attributed to the peak construction season and overseas channel restocking. The demand for machinery is expected to continue growing in 2026 due to ongoing replacement needs, contributions from projects, and trends towards electrification [2] Group 2: Robotics Industry - According to Omdia, Zhiyuan Robotics topped the global humanoid robot shipment rankings with over 5,100 units shipped, capturing 39% of the global market share. The top six companies in humanoid robot shipments in 2025 are all Chinese, accounting for 86.9% of global shipments [3] - Recent financing activities in the robotics sector include Qiangna Technology raising approximately 2 billion RMB, and Mobileye announcing a $900 million acquisition of the humanoid startup Mentee Robotic. Other companies like Lingxin Qiaoshou and Xingjiguan also completed new financing rounds [3] - New product launches include Boston Dynamics' new generation Atlas humanoid robot, which has entered production, and Xiaopeng Motors announcing the mass production of its humanoid robot in 2026 [5] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The manufacturing PMI in China rose by 0.9 percentage points to 50.1% in December 2025, indicating a return to expansion. This improvement is driven by the effects of policy implementation and pre-holiday inventory preparations [6] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for the machinery industry, highlighting the potential for sustained growth in performance for major machinery manufacturers due to resonating domestic and international demand [6] - The report suggests focusing on the engineering machinery sector (e.g., XCMG, SANY Heavy Industry) and the rapidly growing humanoid robotics sector (e.g., Estun, Greentech) as areas of significant investment opportunity [6]

Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry index increased by 2.12%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.66 percentage points, with most sub-sectors, except for meat products and dairy, showing gains [3] - The overall valuation of the food and beverage industry is at a low level, with a PE ratio of 21X, ranking 23rd among the Shenwan primary industries [3] - Inflation data indicates a rise in CPI, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, driven by increased consumer demand and rising food prices [4][5][6] Investment Recommendations - The food and beverage industry is currently rated as a "buy," with a focus on three main investment lines: stable demand industry leaders, companies innovating in new products and channels, and undervalued segments with high growth potential [7] - Specific companies to watch include Guizhou Moutai, Miaokelando, Andeli, Shanxi Fenjiu, Yanjing Beer, and Salted Fish Shop [7] Medical Services Sector - The pharmaceutical and biological sector saw a rise of 7.81%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 5.03 percentage points, with the medical services sub-sector increasing by 12.34% [10] - The commercialization of brain-computer interfaces (BCI) is expected to accelerate, supported by government policies and technological breakthroughs, indicating a potential new growth area in the medical field [11] - The medical services sector is rated as a "buy," with a focus on high-growth companies in the pharmaceutical outsourcing and consumer medical fields, such as WuXi AppTec and Aier Eye Hospital [13]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the company's dividend yield as a safety margin, with a strong operational capability that reduces total costs. The liquid milk business is expected to benefit from a low base and low inventory, indicating an upcoming industry cycle turning point [3][4]. - The long-term strategy focuses on high-quality growth, with profit growth expected to outpace revenue growth. The company aims to optimize its product structure and enhance profitability through a platform strategy [4][23]. Company Investment Logic - **Short-term Logic**: High dividend commitments provide a safety margin, and profit recovery is exceeding expectations. The company is expected to benefit from a favorable macro environment and improved operational efficiency [12]. - **Long-term Logic**: The company is transitioning towards high-quality growth, with a focus on deep processing and functional nutrition products. The liquid milk business remains a strong foundation, while the company aims to achieve significant revenue in deep processing within five years [23][24]. Business Segmentation - The company is diversifying its business structure, focusing on new growth areas such as functional nutrition and deep processing of dairy products. The liquid milk, milk powder, and cold drink segments are all leading in their respective markets [5][42]. - The liquid milk segment is the largest revenue contributor, while the milk powder segment has shown the fastest growth and highest profit margins, becoming a core growth engine for the company [48][53]. Market Perspective - Contrary to market views that the dairy industry has entered a mature phase, the report argues that the company still possesses growth potential due to structural opportunities and a shift towards high-end products [6][66]. - The recovery of raw milk prices is expected to benefit leading dairy companies, alleviating competitive pressures and improving profit margins [67]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1189.9 billion, 1250.4 billion, and 1302.6 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 113 billion, 125.3 billion, and 134.4 billion yuan. The report suggests that the company's high dividend yield and recovery in milk prices will support its growth trajectory [6][68].

Macro Strategy - The macro short cycle shows slight signs of turning, but it is still uncertain whether the current cycle has completed its bottoming process. December PPI year-on-year was -1.90%, showing improvement from November's -2.20%, while CPI was 0.80%, remaining in positive territory for the third consecutive month. However, the absolute value is low, keeping the annual CPI growth at 0% [2][3] - The macro short cycle composite index, derived from PMI, PPI, CPI, and 10-year government bond yields, indicates a slight turning point in December, but further observation is needed to confirm the bottoming of the current cycle [2] Stock Market - A-shares achieved a "good start" in the first week of 2026, with major indices showing gains: Shanghai Composite Index up 3.82%, Shenzhen Component Index up 4.40%, and ChiNext Index up 3.89%. The market's positive performance is attributed to early policy support in the "two new" sectors and improving macro indicators [3][4] - The primary industry sectors saw more gains than losses, with aerospace equipment II and wind power equipment leading the way with increases of 24.49% and 20.01%, respectively. The banking sector was the only one to decline, down 1.90% [5] Investment Recommendations - For the long term, 2026 is the starting year of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a supportive policy environment for industrial upgrades. The market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" trend, with a focus on sectors related to "anti-involution," insurance, securities, and aerospace as guided by the "14th Five-Year Plan" [6] - The new cycle in 2026 is anticipated to benefit upstream cyclical industries, with a positive outlook for sectors such as artificial intelligence and aerospace [6] Vaccine Industry - Recent developments in the vaccine industry include significant progress in multiple pipelines. Notable advancements include the approval of a 24-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine by CanSino and the initiation of clinical trials for various vaccines by other companies [9] - The vaccine sector is actively pursuing product iteration and technological advancements, with a focus on filling market gaps and expanding mRNA technology pipelines. This innovation trend supports the long-term construction of product lineups [9] - The vaccine industry is currently facing performance pressures, with a high proportion of Me-too pipelines leading to intense competition and price declines. Companies are adjusting their pipeline strategies to focus on innovative vaccines and multi-valent products [13][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the in vitro diagnostics industry [7]. Core Views - The in vitro diagnostics (IVD) market is experiencing significant growth, with the domestic biochemical diagnostics sector having largely completed its localization process. The report suggests focusing on the growth potential in immunodiagnostics, particularly in chemiluminescence and molecular diagnostics such as PCR [4][54]. - Recent policy changes in Chongqing regarding pathology service pricing are expected to streamline and clarify pricing structures, which may enhance the role of pathology in precision medicine [4][54]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The pharmaceutical and biological sector rose by 7.81% this week, ranking 6th among 31 primary industries. The in vitro diagnostics sector specifically increased by 8.52% [9][18]. - The medical services sub-sector reported a 12.34% increase, while other related sectors also showed positive growth [18][19]. Valuation Metrics - As of the end of the week, the in vitro diagnostics sector had a PE ratio of 41.66X, with a one-year maximum of 41.97X and a minimum of 20.96X. The current PB ratio stands at 1.90X, with a one-year maximum of 2.01X and a minimum of 1.53X [3][28]. - The PE ratio increased by 3.30X and the PB ratio by 0.15X compared to the previous week [28]. Company Performance - Top-performing companies in the medical services sector include Anbiping (+39.5%), Rejing Biological (+27.1%), and Botuo Biological (+19.0%). Conversely, Mingde Biological (-2.2%) and others showed weaker performance [2][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the home appliance industry [4][56] Core Views - The home appliance industry has shown a weekly increase of +2.34%, ranking 25th among its peers, while the CSI 300 index decreased by -0.08% [5][11] - The industry is experiencing a shift from incremental competition to stock integration, with a focus on efficiency optimization, product innovation, and technological upgrades [9][56] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the home appliance industry is 15.65, ranking 25th among 31 industries, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to the CSI 300 index [7][28] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The home appliance sector's performance over the past month shows a +2.34% increase, with notable sub-sectors such as home appliance components III (+4.11%), other black appliances (+3.99%), and kitchen appliances (+3.84%) leading the gains [5][19] Policy and Market Trends - The national subsidy program has been streamlined to focus on six categories of appliances, with a subsidy of 15% of the product price and clear caps on subsidies for energy-efficient products [7][9] - The 2026 CES highlighted trends in AI integration, display technology innovations, and scenario-based applications in new appliance products [8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for investment: 1. Companies with solid market positions and high dividend yields in the white goods sector [9][56] 2. Companies that can leverage new products and technologies to explore new demands or expand into new markets [9][56] 3. Opportunities arising from the "trade-in" policy and upgrades in AI and smart home technologies [9][56]