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电子行业2026年度策略:算力需求景气高企,端侧AI持续迭代
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-12-31 09:32
Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing iteration of large model technology, leading to a wave of innovation in AI-enabled consumer electronics, particularly in edge AI deployment, which offers low cost, high performance, and enhanced privacy security [4][20][26]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The electronic industry has shown a relative return of 30.2% over the past 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 index, with an absolute return of 47.9% [3]. - Traditional consumer electronics have entered a phase of low growth, with smartphone and PC sales stabilizing, while TWS (True Wireless Stereo) devices are also experiencing slow growth [15]. Group 2: Edge AI Development - The development of model compression technology has laid the groundwork for deploying large models on edge devices, enhancing the capabilities of edge AI [21][26]. - Companies like Huawei and ByteDance are showcasing significant applications of edge AI in smartphones, with products like the Doubao mobile assistant demonstrating the potential for complex operations and cross-application functionality [30][32]. Group 3: ASIC Demand - The demand for ASIC (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit) is surging due to its cost-effectiveness and customization advantages over GPUs, with the market expected to grow from $6.6 billion in 2023 to $55 billion by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 53% [5][71]. - Major tech companies are increasingly developing their own ASICs, with Google and Amazon leading the way in supplying these chips, further validating their performance and commercial value [9][71]. Group 4: PCB Market Growth - The demand for PCBs (Printed Circuit Boards) is expected to rise as AI companies and global internet giants invest heavily in data center expansions, with a projected CAGR of 21% in global data center capital expenditures by 2029 [6]. - The increasing complexity of AI servers and high-speed switches is driving up the value of individual PCBs, leading to a simultaneous increase in both volume and price [6][68]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies within the edge AI, ASIC, and PCB supply chains, maintaining a bullish outlook on the electronic industry [8][9]. - Specific companies to watch include Rockchip, Hengxuan Technology, and Horizon Robotics in the edge AI sector, and Chipone and Cambrian in the ASIC sector [9].
高股息为盾,静待价值修复
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-12-31 08:21
证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 31 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 银行业年度策略 高股息为盾,静待价值修复 相关研究: 行业评级:增持(维持) 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 | 相对收益 | -4.85 | 4.99 | -10.62 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对收益 | -2.10 | 5.22 | 5.69 | 分析师:郭怡萍 证书编号:S0500523080002 Tel:(8621) 50295327 Email:guoyp@xcsc.com 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点: 市场回顾 今年银行板块行情节奏呈现"前强、中弱、后稳"的走势,主要反映从避 险主导到寻求增长的市场风格转换过程,以及资产风险预期的变化。 政策导向:宽松政策过渡期,金融支持实体经济 | 1. | 《2025年中期策略-价值重估仍 | | --- | --- | | 在进行时》 | 2025.07.02 | | 2. | 《业绩底部修复,配置价值提 | | 升》 | 2025.09.05 | 2026 年,政策环境正从此前的超常规逆周期调节模式,向更具稳定性和 ...
中钨高新(000657):优质钨矿资产注入夯实一体化根基,新兴需求领域布局前景良好
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-12-31 07:53
证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 31 日 湘财证券研究所 公司研究 中钨高新(000657.SZ) 优质钨矿资产注入夯实一体化根基,新兴需求领域布局前景良好 公司评级:增持(首次覆盖) 近十二个月公司表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 31 58 190 绝对收益 34 60 207 注:相对收益与沪深 300 指数相比 分析师:王攀 证书编号:S0500520120001 Tel:(8621) 50293524 Email:wangpan2@xcsc.com 地址:上海市浦东新区银城路 88 号 中国人寿金融中心 10 楼 核心要点: ❑ 五矿旗下钨产业运营管理平台,业务一体化布局 公司成立于 1991 年,中国五矿集团 2010 年入主成为实控人。公司经历 多次重组整合,逐步覆盖钨全产业链,目前发展成为中国五矿钨产业的 运营管理平台。公司主要业务包括切削刀具及工具、其他硬质合金、难 熔金属、精矿及粉末产品及贸易及装备四大板块,产品不仅在传统领域 居于主导低位,同时广泛应用于新兴高端领域。 ❑ 公司营收稳步增加,优质矿山注入带动盈利中枢提升 钨是重要的战略性稀有金属资源,全球钨增量有限 ...
湘财证券晨会纪要-20251231
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-12-31 00:57
Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights that Miaokelando has solidified its leading position in the cheese market through strategic partnerships, particularly with Mengniu, and has maintained a market share exceeding 35% in cheese sales in China as of 2023 [2][6] - The company has focused on a "cheese-centric" strategy, expanding its product matrix to include ready-to-eat nutrition, family dining, and food service industries, with nearly 100 SKUs [3][5] - The report indicates that the cheese market in China is in a growth phase, with a low penetration rate of less than 3% compared to the overall dairy market, suggesting significant room for growth [6] Group 2: Financial Performance - Miaokelando's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 1.313 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.07%, with cheese sales volume reaching 80,300 tons, a 39.39% increase [5][7] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 5.435 billion, 6.193 billion, and 7.100 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 12.22%, 13.94%, and 14.64% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 241 million, 357 million, and 471 million yuan for the same period, with significant growth rates of 112.10%, 48.20%, and 31.86% respectively [7]
安井食品(603345):并购拓新域,转型释空间
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-12-30 14:34
Investment Rating - The report gives the company a "Buy" rating for the first coverage [7]. Core Insights - The company has solidified its leading position in the Chinese frozen food industry with a market share of 6.6% as of 2024, ranking first overall and significantly leading in specific segments such as frozen prepared foods and frozen dishes [2][17]. - The company is shifting from a "channel-driven" approach to a "new product-driven" strategy, expanding into the frozen baking sector through acquisitions, which is expected to create a second growth curve [5][16]. - The domestic frozen food market is characterized by low concentration and high growth potential, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.4% from 2024 to 2029, driven by increasing consumer demand and low per capita consumption compared to mature markets [4][46]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was founded in 2001 and has established a nationwide marketing network, with significant strategic initiatives since its IPO in 2017, including entering the frozen dish market and expanding its product offerings through acquisitions [15][18]. - The company has developed a diverse product matrix with over 500 products, focusing on frozen prepared foods, frozen dishes, and frozen noodle products, maintaining a strong market position in each category [21][24]. Industry Analysis - The global frozen food market is expanding, with a projected size of $417.7 billion in 2024 and a CAGR of approximately 6.0% from 2024 to 2029, with Asia leading the growth at 7.8% [3][39]. - China's frozen food market is the second largest globally, with a market size of approximately $31.4 billion in 2024 and a low concentration ratio (CR5) of 15%, indicating significant consolidation opportunities [4][41]. - Emerging markets like Southeast Asia are expected to grow rapidly, with a projected CAGR of 14.0% from 2024 to 2029, driven by demographic trends and changing consumer habits [4][46]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 158.36 billion, 169.68 billion, and 184.38 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.69%, 7.15%, and 8.66% respectively [5][69]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 14.15 billion, 15.66 billion, and 17.50 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of -4.73%, 10.73%, and 11.74% respectively [5][69].
湘财证券晨会纪要-20251230
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-12-30 08:30
晨 会 纪 要 [2025]第 240 号 会议形式:腾讯会议 参会人员:曹旭特 仇华 许雯 王攀 蒋栋 轩鹏程 文正平 李杰 张智珑 郭怡萍 李育文 李正威 别璐莎 邢维洁 马丽明 汪炜 聂孟依 张弛 整理记录:张智珑 研究所今日晨会要点如下: 一、行业公司 1.1 证券行业(张智珑) 市场回顾:本周非银和券商指数领涨,估值仍处于低位 根据 Wind 数据,本周(12.15-12.19)上证指数上涨 0.03%,沪深 300 指数下跌 0.3%,创 业板指下跌 2.3%。申万非银金融指数上涨 2.9%,涨跌幅排名 2/31,跑赢沪深 300 指数 3.2pct;其中,券商指数上涨 1%,跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.3pct。券商指数 PB 为 1.38x,近两周 小幅回升,目前处于近十年的 35%分位数。 本周券商板块涨幅排名前 5 的券商分别是:东兴证券(+9.6%)、华泰证券(+3.5%)、 广发证券(+3.3%)、国信证券(+3%)、中金公司(+3%)。 跌幅最大的 5 家券商分别是:红塔证券(-1.4%)、中泰证券(-1.6%)、华林证券(- 2.5%)、首创证券(-3%)、国联民生(-3.5%)。 ...
政策驱动叠加年末消费高峰,关注零售业态行情机会
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-12-28 09:26
证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 28 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 商贸零售行业周报 政策驱动叠加年末消费高峰,关注零售业态行情机会 相关研究: | 1.《近期板块走强,关注零售百货 | | --- | | 业态变革》 2024.12.11 | | 2.《2024年社零总额增长3.5%,线 | | 下商超业态平稳复苏》2025.01.24 | 行业评级:增持(维持) 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 2.8 6.0 -9.3 绝对收益 5.7 7.4 7.7 -50.00% 0.00% 50.00% 沪深300 商贸零售(申万) 注:相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师:聂孟依 证书编号:S0500524040001 Tel:(8621) 50299667 Email:nmy06967@xcsc.com 地址:上海市浦东新区银城路 88 号 中国人寿金融中心 10 楼 核心要点: ❑ 商贸零售板块上周上涨 0.16% 根据 wind,上周,商贸零售报收 2462.73 点,上涨 0.16%,涨幅排名位列 申万一级行业第 24 位,跑输沪深 300 指数 1.79 个百分点 ...
医疗耗材行业周报:第六批耗材集采启动,关注后续开标情况-20251228
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-12-28 09:09
证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 28 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 医疗耗材行业周报 第六批耗材集采启动,关注后续开标情况 相关研究: | 1. 《第五批耗材国采即将落地执 | | --- | | 行》 2025.02.18 | | 2.《年报披露密集期,耗材板块关 | | 注创新与业绩修复》 2025.04.01 | 行业评级:增持(维持) 近十二个月行业表现 -50.00% 0.00% 50.00% 沪深300 医疗耗材 | % | 1 个月 | 3 个月 | 12 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对收益 | -3 | -8 | -9 | | 绝对收益 | -1 | -7 | 8 | 注:相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师:聂孟依 证书编号:S0500524040001 Tel:(8621) 50299667 Email:nmy06967@xcsc.com 地址:上海市浦东新区银城路 88 号 中国人寿金融中心 10 楼 核心要点: ❑ 医疗耗材板块上周上涨 0.08% 根据 wind,上周,医药生物报收 8254.26 点,下跌 0.18%,涨幅排名位列 申万 ...
2026年一季度全球大类资产配置展望:权益积极看多,债市由配置转向交易
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-12-25 10:26
证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 25 日 湘财证券研究所 策略研究 大类资产研究 权益积极看多,债市由配置转向交易 ——2026 年一季度全球大类资产配置展望 1. 《股市韧中求进,债市稳中蓄 势》 2025.09.25 久期》 2025.06.29 略转强》 品》 2024.07.26 5. 《权益和商品积极看多》 分析师:仇华 证书编号:S0500519120001 Tel:(8621) 50295323 Email:qh3062@xcsc.com 分析师:李正威 证书编号:S0500522090001 Tel:021- 50295307 Email:lizw@xcsc.com 分析师:邢维洁 证书编号:S0500522010001 Tel:(8621) 50295374 Email:xwj06627@xcsc.com 中国人寿金融中心 10 楼 相关研究: 核心要点: 宏观环境展望 大类资产展望 2024.09.30 权益市场方面:我们预判 2026 年的宏观中周期和宏观短周期均处于底部 反弹的阶段,有望形成向上共振,海外中美贸易冲突缓和,经济下行压 力减弱,"十五五"规划落地,新质生产力依然是重 ...
对欧盟乳制品征收反补贴政策点评:深加工是中国乳业的发展方向
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-12-25 08:54
证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 25 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 食品饮料行业点评 深加工是中国乳业的发展方向 ——对欧盟乳制品征收反补贴政策点评 相关研究: | 1.《品类创新扬帆,穿越液奶周期 | | | --- | --- | | ——伊利股份2026年经销商大会 | | | 点评》 | 2025.12.19 | | 2.《妙可蓝多:品牌破圈,国产替 | | | 代加速》 | 2025.11.28 | | 3.《板块情绪回暖,估值极具性价 | | | 比》 | 2025.11.24 | 行业评级:买入(维持) 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 | 相对收益 | -3.8% | 0.3% | -22.9% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对收益 | 4.4% | 1.4% | -13.7% | | | | 注:相对收益与沪深 300 相比 | | 分析师:张弛 证书编号:S0500525110001 Tel:17621838100 Email:zc08241@xcsc.com 地址:上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 ❑ 首先利好 ...