证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 30 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 稀土磁材行业周报 本周轻稀土链价格延续回升，中重稀土价格仍疲软 相关研究： | 《本周行业延续跌势，轻稀土链价格回升》 | | | --- | --- | | 20251123 | | | 《本周行业继续调整，产业链价格短期转 | | | 弱》 | 20251116 | 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -8 -18 50 绝对收益 -11 -17 67 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：王攀 证书编号：S0500520120001 Tel：(8621) 50293524 Email：wangpan2@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼湘财证券研 究所 ◆ 基本面变化。稀土环节，供应端总体呈现偏紧态势，部分分离企业因 检修或原料问题开工率有所下降，导致氧化物现货供应偏紧；金属厂 整体生产稳定，但头部企业散单流出减少，多以长协订单为主，金属 端现货仍有一定支撑。需求端，磁材企业保持较高开工率，国内订单 稳定，同时海外市场需求正逐步恢复， ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 30 日 湘财证券研究所 金融工程研究 跟踪周报 超预期股票精选策略跟踪周报 相关研究： 1. 《湘财证券-金融工程-超预期股 票精选策略》 2024.08.19 2. 《湘财证券-金融工程-超预期股 票 精 选 策 略 改 进 》 2024.11.19 分析师：别璐莎 证书编号：S0500524010001 Tel：(021) 50293663 Email：bls06644 @xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 主动型量化基金市场表现 本周（2025.11.24-2025.11.28），根据 Wind，主动型量化基金中位数收益为 3.02%，沪深 300 指数收益为 1.64%，Wind 全 A 指数收益为 2.90%；本年， 主动型量化基金中位数收益为 24.89%，沪深 300 指数收益为 15.04%，Wind 全 A 指数收益为 23.57%。 本周，根据 Wind，收益排名靠前的主动型量化基金的收益率在 6%至 8% 之间，基金的重仓行业集中在计算机、电子行业；收益排名靠后的主动型 量化基金的收益率在-1 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 30 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 食品饮料行业周报 茅台理性定调，板块投资信心回暖 相关研究： | 1.《压力逐步释放，耐心等待探 | | | --- | --- | | 底企稳》 | 2025.11.09 | | 2.《10月CPI回暖，消费板块预期 | | | 修复》 | 2025.11.16 | | 3.《板块情绪回暖，低估值极具 | | | 性价比》 | 2025.11.23 | 行业评级：买入（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 | % | 1 个月 | 3 个月 | 12 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对收益 | 4.8 | -5.0 | -21.0 | | 绝对收益 | 0.8 | -1.8 | -5.2 | 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：李育文 证书编号：S0500523060001 Tel：021-50295328 Email：liyw3@xcsc.com 分析师：张弛 面对市场与渠道，茅台强调以消费者为中心，推动"三个转型、三端变革"， 切实保障市场渠道长期稳定向好、科学研判投放节奏、持续构建"多载体、 多主 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the medical services industry, suggesting a positive outlook for the sector in the next 6-12 months [9][63]. Core Insights - The medical services sector has shown resilience, with a recent performance boost attributed to the seasonal increase in flu cases, despite ongoing cost control pressures from medical insurance [9][63]. - The report highlights the significance of the recent government initiative to promote provincial-level medical insurance coordination, which is expected to enhance the efficiency of fund utilization and improve the overall healthcare system [5][6][61]. - The medical services sector's current Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is 31.62, with a Price-to-Book (PB) ratio of 3.18, indicating a slight increase from the previous week [4][29]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The pharmaceutical and biological sector experienced a decline of 2.67% this week, ranking 17th among 31 primary industries [2][11]. - The medical services sub-sector reported a slight increase of 1.42%, closing at 6237.83 points [22][23]. Company Performance - Top-performing companies in the medical services sector include ST Zhongzhu (+16.3%), Baihua Pharmaceutical (+11.6%), and Lanwei Medical (+10.6%) [3][27]. - Underperforming companies include Aier Eye Hospital (-1.6%) and WuXi AppTec (-0.7%) [3][27]. Valuation Metrics - The medical services sector's PE ratio has increased by 0.40 from the previous week, while the PB ratio has risen by 0.04 [4][29]. - The maximum and minimum PE ratios over the past year were 41.13 and 28.46, respectively, indicating a relatively stable valuation range [4][29]. Government Policy Impact - The recent government meeting emphasized the importance of provincial-level medical insurance coordination, which aims to balance fund distribution across regions and enhance the overall healthcare system [5][6][61]. - The report identifies structural opportunities for the pharmaceutical industry, particularly in innovative drugs, medical devices, and healthcare information technology, as a result of the new insurance policies [6][62]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-growth areas such as pharmaceutical outsourcing services and companies with improving profit margins, including WuXi AppTec and Aier Eye Hospital [9][63].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metal industry has significantly outperformed the benchmark, with a cumulative increase of 65.71% year-to-date as of November 21, 2025, surpassing the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 52.53 percentage points [4][15] - The revenue and profit growth rates in the non-ferrous metal sector have gradually stabilized since the beginning of the year, with notable improvements in the performance of energy metals [4][56] - The first three quarters of 2025 saw the non-ferrous metal sector achieve a total revenue of 2.82 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 151.29 billion yuan, up 40.9% year-on-year [4][36] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Overview - The non-ferrous metal index has shown strong performance, ranking second among the first-level industries in the first three quarters of 2025, with a quarterly increase of 41.82% in Q3 [15][18] - The nickel sector recorded the highest growth in the first three quarters, while the silver sector led in Q3 [4][22] 2. Copper Sector - The copper sector achieved a revenue of 1.42 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.01%, and a net profit of 69.01 billion yuan, up 46.17% year-on-year [5][65] 3. Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector reported a revenue of 299.54 billion yuan in the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.02%, and a net profit of 14.73 billion yuan, up 62.64% year-on-year [6][11] 4. Rare Earth Sector - The rare earth sector saw a positive revenue growth rate, with significant improvements in performance, and a net profit growth that outpaced revenue growth [6][11] 5. Tungsten Sector - The tungsten sector achieved a revenue of 50.25 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year increase of 20.38%, and a net profit of 2.87 billion yuan, up 28.58% year-on-year [7][11] 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the energy metals sector due to supply constraints and increasing demand from domestic grid investments and new energy sectors, as well as the precious metals sector, which is expected to benefit from a long-term bullish trend in gold prices [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company has solidified its leading position in the cheese market through collaboration with Mengniu, enhancing its competitive edge [2][17] - The company is expanding its brand reach by targeting both adult and B-end markets, creating new growth opportunities [4][21] - The domestic cheese market is in a growth phase with accelerating domestic substitution, indicating significant market potential [5][69] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company transitioned to focus on cheese in 2015, acquiring Tianjin Miaokelando and Danone's Shanghai factory, and has since established a strong market presence [3][16] - As of 2023, the company holds over 35% market share in the cheese segment, maintaining its position as the industry leader [3][75] Product Strategy - The company has developed a product matrix consisting of ready-to-eat nutrition, family dining, and food service, with nearly 100 SKUs [4][20] - New products targeting the youth and adult markets, such as "Growth Yogurt" and "Beef + Reconstituted Cheese," are set to launch, expanding the brand's audience [4][21] Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 54.35 billion, CNY 61.93 billion, and CNY 71.00 billion from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.22%, 13.94%, and 14.64% respectively [6][82] - Net profit is expected to reach CNY 2.41 billion, CNY 3.57 billion, and CNY 4.71 billion during the same period, with significant growth rates [6][82] Industry Analysis - The cheese market in China is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.5% from 2022 to 2026, with a current retail scale of CNY 143 billion [5][57] - China's cheese consumption per capita is significantly lower than the global average, indicating substantial room for growth [5][62] Competitive Landscape - The industry is characterized by high concentration, with the top three brands holding 53.2% of the market share, and the company is well-positioned to benefit from ongoing domestic substitution trends [5][71]

Financial Engineering - The report discusses the tracking of index enhancement strategies, indicating a focus on optimizing investment returns through strategic adjustments in index fund management [1] Market Performance - For the week of November 17-21, 2025, the Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI Dividend Index had the highest returns at -2.72% and -3.69% respectively, while the Micro Index and ChiNext Index had the lowest returns at -7.80% and -6.15% [2] - Year-to-date, the Micro Index and ChiNext Index led with returns of 66.12% and 36.35%, while the CSI Dividend and Shanghai Composite 50 Index lagged with returns of -0.48% and 10.10% [2] - The CSI 1000 Index enhancement strategy yielded a return of -5.89% for the week, underperforming the index return of -5.80%, resulting in an excess return of -0.09% [2] - For the month, the CSI 1000 Index enhancement strategy returned -6.45%, compared to the index return of -5.85%, leading to an excess return of -0.60% [2] - Year-to-date, the CSI 1000 Index enhancement strategy achieved a return of 21.60%, outperforming the index return of 18.63% with an excess return of 2.97% [2] Market Analysis - The CSI 1000 Index has shown weak performance recently, attributed to external uncertainties and internal market pressures, with significant declines observed [3] - External factors include reduced expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and concerns over an AI bubble, which have negatively impacted global risk appetite and valuations in technology and small-cap sectors [3] - Internally, the market's previous gains have led to a need for risk aversion and portfolio rebalancing as the year-end approaches [3] - The report suggests that the recent market pullback is a result of a combination of external sentiment and technical factors, indicating potential continued volatility in the near term [3] - Investors are advised to be cautious of the high volatility associated with the CSI 1000 Index moving forward [3]

Financial Engineering - The stock market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 3.90% to close at 3834.89 during the week of November 17 to November 21, 2025, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 5.13% to 12538.07, with trading volume decreasing compared to the previous week [2]. - The 50ETF opened at 3.182 and closed at 3.101, reflecting a decline of 2.58% with a trading volume of 10.459 billion. The Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF opened at 4.730 and closed at 4.564, down 3.73% with a trading volume of 21.119 billion. The Southern CSI 500 ETF opened at 7.334 and closed at 6.922, a decrease of 5.67% with a trading volume of 12.803 billion [3]. Options Market - From November 17 to November 21, the average daily trading volume of 50ETF options increased compared to the previous week, with total open interest rising and the PCR ratio decreasing to 0.78, down 0.19 from the previous week. The Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF options also saw an increase in average daily trading volume and total open interest, with a PCR of 0.80, down 0.24. The Southern CSI 500 ETF options experienced similar trends with a PCR of 0.93, down 0.23 [4]. - Short-term volatility remained relatively stable with a slight upward trend, and the implied volatility increased significantly during the week, rising by approximately 5 percentage points. The implied volatility is currently above historical volatility levels, indicating a stable sentiment in the market [5]. Investment Recommendations - The market has shown a downward trend from high levels, with large-cap blue-chip stocks experiencing smaller declines while small-cap growth stocks fell by over 5%. The PCR ratio has decreased to historically low levels, and there is a growing expectation for a rebound from oversold conditions. The implied volatility curve indicates a significant increase in the slope of out-of-the-money contracts, suggesting greater expectations for future volatility [6].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The global storage chip manufacturers, including Samsung, SK Hynix, Kioxia, and Micron, are planning to collectively reduce production in the second half of 2025 to drive market prices up, signaling a potential recovery from two years of price decline [2][3] - Samsung's NAND wafer production target has been adjusted down by approximately 7% from 5.07 million wafers last year to 4.72 million this year, while Kioxia's production is also reduced from 4.8 million to 4.69 million [2] - SK Hynix's NAND production has decreased from 2.01 million wafers to about 1.8 million, a decline of around 10%, and Micron is maintaining conservative supply levels at its Singapore Fab 7 plant [2] Group 2: Market Demand and Trends - The demand for storage is expected to remain strong due to the rapid increase in storage capacity requirements driven by AI applications, including high growth in AI server demand and significant increases in per-unit usage [4] - The shortage of HDD supply is also contributing to the demand for NAND flash as a substitute [4] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an "overweight" rating for the electronics industry, highlighting investment opportunities in AI infrastructure, edge-side SOC, foldable smartphone supply chains, and the storage industry [5] - Specific companies to watch in the AI infrastructure sector include Cambricon, Chipone, and Aojie Technology, while in the edge-side SOC sector, attention is drawn to Rockchip, Hengxuan Technology, Lexin Technology, and Zhongke Lanyun [5] Group 4: ETF Market Overview - As of November 21, 2025, there are 1,367 ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, with a total asset management scale of 56,052.19 billion [7] - The stock-type ETFs account for 1,065 of these, with a total of 35,817.87 billion, while bond-type ETFs consist of 53, totaling 7,187.78 billion [7] Group 5: ETF Performance Insights - The median weekly change for stock-type ETFs was -4.56%, with media and banking ETFs performing relatively well, while the Sci-Tech Innovation Board's new energy ETF and photovoltaic leading ETFs showed significant declines [9] - The healthcare ETF saw the largest increase in shares, adding 2.581 billion shares, while the banking ETF experienced the most significant decrease, losing 1.608 billion shares [10] Group 6: ETF Rotation Strategy - The PB-ROE framework identifies high PB and high ROE industries as key focus areas, with historical backtesting showing that only these sectors achieved excess returns [11] - The combined strategy from the third and fifth quadrants yielded an annualized return of 11.93%, with an excess return of 13.22% [12] - Recommended sectors for the current week include non-ferrous metals, coal, and beauty care, with corresponding ETFs suggested for investment [13]

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to present a narrow range of fluctuations upward in December 2025, following a trend of oscillation since the beginning of the year [2][3][30] - The overall performance of A-share indices has shown an upward trend in 2025, with significant increases in indices such as the ChiNext Index, which rose by 36.77% [8][11] - The macroeconomic environment indicates a likely continuation of a relatively loose monetary policy, with expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may enhance capital inflows into the market [4][29] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to drive the development of new productive forces, particularly in technology and environmental sectors, which will support the A-share market's slow bull trend in 2026 [6][36] - The report highlights the importance of long-term capital entering the market, particularly in dividend-related sectors such as securities and insurance, as well as traditional sectors related to "anti-involution" [6][36] - The performance of various sectors has varied, with notable gains in non-ferrous metals and communication sectors, while industries like food and beverage have seen declines [16][19]