证券研究报告 2025 年 8 月 24 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 基础化工行业周报 "反内卷"政策下，尿素景气度有望改善 | 1. | 《"反内卷"有望推动纯碱落 | | --- | --- | | 后产能淘汰》 | 2025.8.10 | 近十二个月行业表现 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 相关研究： 核心要点： 基础化工行业市场概况 行业评级：增持（维持） 2025 年 8 月 18 日到 8 月 22 日，基础化工行业周度上涨 2.86%，在所有申 万一级行业涨跌幅中排名第 15 位。根据 Wind，基础化工行业中，周度涨 幅排名前五的股票分别为：震安科技、飞鹿股份、奇德新材、杭州高新、 *ST 金泰；周度跌幅排名前五的股票分别为：上纬新材、唯科科技、新亚 强、中欣氟材、美联新材。 细分行业——尿素 | 相对收益 | 0.3 | 6.2 | 16.0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对收益 | 6.6 | 18.1 | 48.1 | 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：顾华昊 证书编号：S0500523080001 Tel：(8621) ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The performance of the product Manhaixin® has been outstanding, continuing to drive rapid growth in the company's performance [5] - The company has a significant growth potential in the market for Manhaixin®, with an expected contribution from PCV13i starting in the fourth quarter [6] - The company has a differentiated pipeline layout with strong research and development capabilities, which is expected to create new growth curves [7] - The company has strong competitive advantages in innovation, product capability, and commercialization, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts [8] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 382 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26%; the net loss attributable to the parent company was 13.49 million yuan, narrowing by 94% [4] - The gross profit margin was 82.54%, an increase of 12.68 percentage points year-on-year; the expense ratio was 102.94%, a decrease of 15.91 percentage points year-on-year [4] Product Performance - The sales revenue of two cerebrospinal meningitis products in the first half of 2025 reached 364 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.43% [5] - The improvement in gross profit margin is attributed to increased vaccine production and optimization of production capacity structure [5] Market Potential - The market share of Manhaixin® is approximately 10% as of 2024, with expectations for continued growth due to its unique competitive position [6] - The company is actively pursuing expansion into new age groups and international markets, with plans for local production and joint research in regions such as Southeast Asia and the Middle East [6] Research and Development - The company has a strong pipeline with several products at various stages of development, including three in the application stage and two in phase III clinical trials [7] - The ongoing development of key products is expected to create new revenue growth opportunities [7] Financial Projections - The company’s projected total revenue for 2025-2027 is 1.155 billion, 1.549 billion, and 2.083 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 4.7 million, 115 million, and 284 million yuan [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.002, 0.46, and 1.15 yuan for the same period [8]

Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical industry is experiencing steady growth, driven by core products and strategic market expansions [3][4]. Company Performance - The company reported a revenue of 1.599 billion yuan for H1 2025, an increase of 11.99% year-on-year, and a net profit of 374 million yuan, up 26.16% year-on-year [4][5]. - The gross margin was 63.01%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.39 percentage points, while the net margin reached 23.71%, up 2.72 percentage points [4]. Core Product Growth - The core products, including the Wuling series and Bailing series, have shown robust growth, with Wuling series sales reaching 897 million yuan (up 7.23%) and Bailing series sales at 113 million yuan (up 38.51%) [5][6]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a "one body, two wings" strategy, focusing on marketing and R&D to enhance operational performance [6]. - The company is expanding its C-end business by launching larger packaging for Wuling capsules and forming strategic partnerships with major chains [6]. Clinical Validation and R&D Progress - The core product Wuling capsules have received validation from international journals, confirming their safety and efficacy in treating mild depression in Parkinson's patients [7]. - The company has made significant progress in clinical trials, with multiple products entering various stages of development [7]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3.231 billion yuan, 3.687 billion yuan, and 4.265 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.4%, 14.1%, and 15.7% [8]. - Net profits are projected to be 661 million yuan, 839 million yuan, and 986 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 30.2%, 26.9%, and 17.4% [8][9].

Group 1: Public Utilities Industry - The public utilities sector experienced a decline of 0.55% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.92 percentage points, ranking 27th among Shenwan's primary industries [2] - Sub-sectors showed mixed performance, with gas rising by 0.47%, heating services up by 0.32%, while coal power fell by 2.66% and hydropower decreased by 1.02% [2] - The week saw a slight increase in spot coal prices, with domestic prices rising by 2.51% to 695 RMB/ton, and coal inventory increasing by 3.66% to 5.67 million tons [3][4] Group 2: Energy Production - In July, national electricity production accelerated, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and daily average generation reaching 298.9 billion kWh [6] - The growth in electricity generation was driven by thermal, wind, and solar power, while hydropower saw a decline of 9.8% [6] - The report highlights the ongoing construction of a unified national electricity market, which is expected to enhance the valuation of electricity assets [7] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Industry - The ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugate) market is experiencing explosive growth, with the global market size projected to increase from 7.9 billion USD in 2022 to 14.1 billion USD in 2024, and expected to exceed 68.5 billion USD by 2030 [10] - The report emphasizes the importance of CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) services in the ADC sector, with the market size in China expected to grow from 0.1 million USD in 2018 to 24.5 million USD by 2030 [11] - The company, Haoyuan Pharmaceutical, is well-positioned to benefit from this growth due to its established ADC platform and increasing project numbers [9][14] Group 4: Robotics Industry - The first World Humanoid Robot Games showcased significant technological advancements and led to the establishment of the World Humanoid Robot Sports Federation [16][18] - The event served as a platform for demonstrating the latest capabilities in humanoid robotics, with various competitions testing their performance in diverse scenarios [17] - Investment in the humanoid robotics sector should focus on technological breakthroughs, application scenarios, and global collaboration, with specific companies like Lide Harmony and Guomao Co. recommended for attention [20] Group 5: Financial Engineering - The report discusses the characteristics of the Hong Kong stock market, noting that it is primarily composed of financial and stable internet companies, which offer higher dividend yields compared to A-shares [23] - Since 2014, southbound capital has shown a net inflow trend, with its market capitalization share in Hong Kong stocks reaching 85.32% by July 2025 [24] - The analysis indicates that southbound capital has a positive impact on industry rotation in Hong Kong stocks, with a recommended focus on the healthcare and financial sectors for August [25][26]

Industry Overview - The rare earth magnetic materials industry saw a weekly increase of 1.86%, underperforming the benchmark by 0.51 percentage points, with a current valuation (TTM P/E) of 92.2x, which is at 96.2% of its historical percentile [3] - Significant price increases were observed in rare earth concentrates, with prices for mixed rare earth carbonate, fluorocarbon cerium ore in Sichuan, and fluorocarbon cerium ore in Shandong rising by 9.09%, 10.34%, and 12.5% respectively [3] - The prices of praseodymium and neodymium have surged, with praseodymium oxide and praseodymium metal prices increasing by 7.01% and 6.03% respectively, driven by strong downstream demand [3][5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply tightness persists in the rare earth sector, with high raw material prices leading to reduced operations in some separation enterprises, while short-term increases in praseodymium and neodymium production are limited [6] - Downstream demand remains optimistic, particularly from major neodymium-iron-boron manufacturers, with good order intake in August, although overall inventory levels are low [6] - The magnetic materials segment is experiencing a mixed demand outlook, with new energy vehicle production and sales growth slowing, while wind power installations are expected to release some demand [6] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an "overweight" rating for the industry, suggesting a focus on upstream rare earth resource companies that may benefit from tightening supply and potential demand increases due to relaxed export controls [7] - Long-term prospects for downstream magnetic material companies are expected to improve as rare earth prices stabilize, with a recommendation to monitor companies with strong customer structures and new growth opportunities, such as Jinli Permanent Magnet [7] Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage industry saw a modest increase of 0.48% from August 11 to August 15, underperforming the broader market indices [9] - Kweichow Moutai's performance met expectations, with a revenue of 91.094 billion yuan and a net profit of 45.403 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 9.16% and 8.89% respectively [10] - Moutai has introduced a new 500ml four-bottle packaging to cater to diverse consumer needs, aiming to enhance market reach and optimize supply-demand matching [11] Investment Strategy in Food and Beverage - The report suggests focusing on high-quality stocks with stable demand and strong risk resilience, as well as companies actively innovating in new products and channels [12] - Recommended stocks include Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Qingdao Beer, with a maintained "buy" rating for the food and beverage sector [12]

Macro Strategy - In July, non-bank deposits increased by 2.14 trillion yuan, the highest level for the same period since 2015, indicating a potential shift of funds into the stock market [2][3] - By 2024, the number of data enterprises in China is expected to exceed 400,000, with the data industry scale reaching 5.86 trillion yuan, a 117% increase compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [2] - The micro-short drama market in China reached a scale of 50.5 billion yuan in 2024, surpassing annual box office revenue for films for the first time [2][3] Innovative Drug Industry - The global biotech sector saw significant gains, with the Hang Seng Biotech Index rising by 6.87%, driven by upcoming events like the World Conference on Lung Cancer [5] - The domestic innovative drug industry is entering a pivotal phase where innovation results are expected to translate into performance, with a focus on the upcoming National Medical Insurance Directory negotiations for 2025 [5][7] - The 2025 World Conference on Lung Cancer will feature key presentations from companies like Kangfang Biotech and Fuhong Hanlin, showcasing their innovative products and clinical trial results [6] Vaccine Industry - The domestic vaccine sector is experiencing a significant shift, with the approval of a new vaccine for clinical trials and the first vaccine product passing the commercial insurance innovation drug directory review [12][13] - The vaccine market saw a 1.3% increase last week, with a cumulative increase of 2.28% in 2025 [14] - The vaccine industry is currently facing challenges due to supply-demand imbalances, but long-term prospects remain positive with a focus on innovation and international expansion [17][19] Electronic Industry - The electronic sector experienced a 7.02% increase last week, with notable gains in semiconductor and consumer electronics segments [20] - Huawei's launch of the UCM technology is expected to enhance domestic computing power demand, optimizing AI inference experiences [23][24] - Investment opportunities are seen in AI infrastructure and supply chains for consumer electronics, with a recommendation to maintain an "overweight" rating for the electronic industry [24] Securities Industry - The securities sector outperformed the market, with the broker index rising by 8.2%, indicating a recovery in valuation levels [26] - Daily trading volume in the stock market exceeded 20 trillion yuan, suggesting a positive trend for brokerage performance in the upcoming quarter [27][28] - The recommendation for the securities industry remains "overweight," with a focus on internet brokers that exhibit strong beta characteristics [29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the robotics industry [1][8]. Core Insights - The first World Humanoid Robot Games held in Beijing marked a significant milestone in technology breakthroughs and global collaboration, with the establishment of the "World Humanoid Robot Sports Federation" [3][5][6]. - The event showcased the highest level of humanoid robot technology through various competitive events, highlighting advancements in motion control, environmental perception, real-time decision-making, and action execution [4][6]. - The establishment of the federation is expected to unify technical standards and promote international cooperation, laying a foundation for the healthy and orderly development of the humanoid robotics industry [5][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past twelve months, the robotics sector has shown a relative return of 75.8% compared to the CSI 300 index, with an absolute return of 101.4% [2]. Investment Recommendations - Investment in the humanoid robotics sector should focus on three main areas: 1. Technological breakthroughs, particularly in core component localization and AI integration [7][19]. 2. Application scenarios expanding from industrial manufacturing to diverse fields [7][19]. 3. Global layout leveraging local supply chain advantages and international cooperation [7][19]. - Companies such as Greentec Harmonics and Guomao Co. are highlighted for their contributions to the sector [7][19].

Macro Strategy - Fixed asset investment growth rate continues to decline, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 1.60% for the first seven months of 2025, showing a downward trend in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investments [4][20] - Infrastructure investment growth rate is at 7.29%, down from a peak of 11.50% in March 2025, while manufacturing investment growth rate is at 6.20%, down from 9.10% in March 2025. Real estate investment shows a significant decline with a growth rate of -12.00%, the second-lowest since February 2020 [4][20] - M1 and M2 growth rates are 5.60% and 8.80% respectively, indicating a stable monetary policy environment [5][6] - Industrial added value shows a stable growth rate of 5.70% year-on-year in July, maintaining a cumulative growth rate of 6.30% [6][20] - Retail sales growth rate is at 3.70% in July, with cumulative growth at 4.80%, supported by recent policies aimed at boosting consumption [6][20] Stock Market Overview - A-share indices show a continued upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.70% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 8.58% during the week of August 11-15, 2025 [7][8] - The market is characterized by a "slow bull" trend, with expectations of wide fluctuations and gradual increases in August [7][10] - Among the 31 first-level industries, telecommunications and electronics sectors performed well, with weekly growth rates of 7.66% and 7.02% respectively [8][9] Real Estate Industry - Real estate sales continue to decline, with a total sales area of 5.16 billion square meters from January to July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4% [20][21] - The sales amount for the same period is 4.96 trillion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year, indicating increasing pressure on demand [20][21] - Investment in real estate development shows a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 12% for the first seven months of 2025 [22][23] - The report suggests that policy support is needed to stabilize the market, with expectations for further easing measures in major cities [25] Banking Industry - The central bank's report indicates a continued decline in loan interest rates, with the average rate for general loans at 3.69%, down 6 basis points from the previous quarter [27][28] - The focus on preventing fund diversion and enhancing the efficiency of fund usage is emphasized, with a shift in loan structure towards supporting technology innovation and small enterprises [27][28] - The banking sector is expected to maintain stable performance, with recommendations to focus on high-dividend and regionally growing bank stocks [29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The first vaccine product has passed the commercial insurance innovative drug directory review, potentially opening new payment channels for innovative vaccines [3] - The vaccine industry is currently facing performance pressure due to supply-demand imbalances, but long-term prospects remain positive driven by innovation and international expansion [7][29] Summary by Sections Domestic and International Vaccine Dynamics - Hualan Vaccine has received approval for clinical trials of a freeze-dried type B Haemophilus influenzae conjugate vaccine, which is expected to provide protection against infections caused by this pathogen [3] - The "Quadrivalent Influenza Virus Subunit Vaccine" has become the only vaccine to pass the preliminary review for the commercial insurance innovative drug directory, marking a significant step in integrating vaccines into the insurance payment system [3] Market Review - The vaccine sector saw a 1.3% increase last week, with a cumulative increase of 2.28% in 2025 [4][5] - The overall pharmaceutical sector reported a 3.08% increase, with various sub-sectors showing mixed performance [4][10] Valuation - The vaccine sector's PE (ttm) is 81.82X, with a PB (lf) of 1.99X, indicating a slight increase from the previous week [6] Investment Recommendations - The vaccine industry is experiencing performance pressure in 2024 and Q1 2025, but companies are focusing on pipeline adjustments and innovation to improve competitiveness [7][26] - Long-term investment focus should be on companies with strong R&D capabilities and differentiated products, with recommendations for Kangxino and Kanghua Biotech [29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Views - The brokerage sector has outperformed the market, with the PB valuation recovering to near the median level of the past decade [3][10] - The average daily trading volume in the market has surpassed 20 trillion yuan, indicating a recovery in market activity and potential for continued performance improvement in the brokerage industry [5][30] Market Review - During the week of August 11-15, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.5%, the CSI 300 Index by 2.4%, and the ChiNext Index by 8.6% [10] - The non-bank financial index increased by 6.5%, ranking 3rd among 31 sectors, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 4.1 percentage points [10] - The brokerage index rose by 8.2%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 5.8 percentage points, with a PB ratio of 1.53x [3][10] - The top five performing brokerages were Changcheng Securities (+36%), Bank of China Securities (+21.8%), Dongfang Caifu (+15.3%), Tianfeng Securities (+12.8%), and Dongwu Securities (+11.3%) [4][10] Industry Weekly Data Brokerage Business - The average daily stock trading volume reached 20,780 billion yuan, a 24.1% increase week-on-week, recovering to levels seen in early November 2024 [5][17] - New fund issuance for stock, mixed, and bond funds was 3.9 billion, 4.9 billion, and 1.2 billion units respectively, with year-on-year changes of +220%, +42%, and -48% for August [21] Investment Banking Business - Three companies conducted equity financing with a total scale of 1.7 billion yuan, a 34% decrease week-on-week [23] - Year-to-date, IPO financing has increased by 68%, and refinancing by 365%, with private placements up by 528% [23] Capital Intermediation Business - As of August 15, the margin trading balance reached 20,552 billion yuan, a 2.3% increase week-on-week, maintaining above 20 trillion yuan for two consecutive weeks [6][25] - The financing balance exceeded 20 trillion yuan, reaching 20,410 billion yuan, with a 1.4% increase [25] Investment Recommendations - With the recovery in market risk appetite and continuous growth in trading volume, the brokerage industry's performance is expected to improve in the third quarter [30] - The report suggests focusing on internet brokerages with strong beta attributes, such as Zhina Compass, as they are likely to attract incremental capital allocation [30]