晨 会 纪 要 [2025]第 216 号 整理记录：聂孟依 研究所今日晨会要点如下: 一、行业与公司 1、商贸零售行业（聂孟依） 2025 年双十一全网电商销售总额同比增长 14.2% 根据星图数据显示，2025 年"双十一"购物节，全网电商销售总额为 16950 亿元，同比 增长 14.2%。其中综合电商销售总额为 16191 亿元，同比增长 12.3%，即时零售销售额为 670 亿元，同比增长 138.4%，社区团购销售额为 90 亿元，同比减少 35.3%。分品类表现来看，综 合电商平台销售额 TOP5 品类分别为：TOP1 家用电器，销售额占比为 16.5%；TOP2 手机数 码，销售额占比为 14.6%；TOP3 服装，销售额占比为 14.0%；TOP4 个护美妆，销售额占比 为 8.2%；TOP5 女鞋/男鞋/箱包，销售额占比为 6.5%。消费趋势也呈现出一定的变化，本次 双十一，消费者更理性，愿为真正价值付费，呈现"按需分级"特点，此外品牌带给消费者 的价值共鸣也越来越重要，国产品牌、新生代原创品牌通过原创设计和内容创新，获得消费 者青睐。 主 题：对近期重要经济金融新闻、行业事件、公司公告等 ...

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The IMF has slightly raised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, with developed economies expected to grow at approximately 1.5% and emerging markets at over 4%[14] - The UAE's economic growth forecast for 2025 is adjusted to 4.8%, up from earlier predictions[14] - The US economy is projected to grow by 2.0% in 2025, slightly above the average for developed countries[14] Group 2: Domestic Economic Trends - China's GDP growth for 2025 is expected to be around 4.8%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from 2024, with further decline to 4.2% in 2026[14] - Fixed asset investment in China turned negative in September 2025, dropping from a positive 0.5% in August to -1.7% in October[49] - Real estate development investment in China has decreased by 14.7% year-on-year as of October 2025[49] Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Global inflation is expected to ease, but the US still faces inflation risks above target levels, while other regions maintain moderate inflation[15] - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate cut cycle, reducing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%[30] - The probability of the Fed not lowering rates in December 2025 has risen to 51.4%, indicating market uncertainty[32] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the Hong Kong stock market may benefit from the Fed's rate cuts, as liquidity improves and capital flows to higher-yield emerging markets[7] - Long-term investment in gold is recommended, with prices expected to rise further during the global rate cut cycle, currently above $4000 per ounce[8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronic industry [1][8] Core Insights - Nvidia's Q3 earnings exceeded expectations, with a revenue growth of 62% to $57 billion, driven by strong demand for AI computing [5][6] - The electronic industry index fell by 6.16% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 by 3.65 percentage points [10] - The electronic sector's PE (TTM) is at 54.13X, down 3.30X from the previous week, indicating a valuation within historical norms [4][11] Market Performance - The electronic industry index reported a 31.0% absolute return over the past 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 by 19.42 percentage points [2][10] - Key companies that performed well last week include Tengjing Technology and Saiwei Electronics, while companies like Xiangnan Chip and Xianying Technology lagged [3][14] Valuation Metrics - The electronic sector's PE (TTM) is at 54.13X, with a historical maximum of 69.14X and a minimum of 39.61X over the past year [4][11] - The PB (LF) stands at 4.48X, with historical extremes of 5.49X and 3.13X [4] Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the ongoing recovery in consumer electronics, driven by new foldable smartphone releases and advancements in AI technology [7][18] - The demand for AI infrastructure and related components is expected to remain strong, particularly in sectors like AI infrastructure and edge SOCs [6][7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in AI infrastructure, edge SOCs, and the supply chain for foldable smartphones and storage [7][8]

Macro Strategy - The LPR remained unchanged in November, with the 1-year and 5-year rates at 3.00% and 3.50% respectively, indicating stable monetary policy despite weak macro data in October [2][3] - A-share indices experienced significant declines from November 17 to 21, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.90% and the ChiNext Index down 6.15%, primarily due to reduced expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3][4] - All primary industries in the A-share market declined, with energy metals and communication equipment showing the highest cumulative gains for 2025 at 83.18% and 78.97% respectively [5][6] Investment Recommendations - For the long term, 2026 is expected to be a year of growth driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a stable A-share market anticipated [7] - Short-term strategies should focus on sectors benefiting from long-term capital inflows, traditional sectors related to "anti-involution," and consumer areas such as motorcycles and medical services [7] North Exchange Overview - As of November 21, 2025, the North Exchange had 284 listed stocks, with an average total market value of 864.16 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.16% from the previous week [10][11] - Notable new listings included Dapeng Industrial, which saw a 1211.11% increase in its stock price during its first week [10][12] Medical Services Industry - The pharmaceutical and biological sector fell by 6.88%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.11 percentage points [16][17] - The medical services sector's PE ratio is currently at 31.22, with a recent decline of 2.25 [18] - High-growth areas such as ADC and TIDES CDMO are recommended for investment, with companies like WuXi AppTec and WuXi Biologics highlighted [19][20][21] Automotive Industry - Yuanrong Qixing showcased 200,000 mass-produced vehicles at the Guangzhou Auto Show, aiming for a cumulative delivery of 1 million vehicles by 2026 [23][24] - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from the acceleration of intelligent technology adoption and supportive policies for vehicle consumption [25][26] - Investment opportunities are significant in the automotive and parts sectors, particularly for companies involved in smart components and electric vehicles [26][27]

Investment Rating - The industry maintains an "Overweight" rating, suggesting a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [5]. Core Insights - The demand for respiratory medications is expected to rise due to the increase in flu cases, with a reported 955 flu-like illness outbreaks, marking a 53.8% increase from the previous week [4]. - The market performance of the Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) sector showed a decline of 6.46% last week, ranking second among secondary pharmaceutical sectors [1]. - The TCM sector's Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio (ttm) is 27.36X, down by 1.89X week-on-week, while the Price-to-Book (PB) ratio (lf) is 2.31X, down by 0.16X [2]. Market Performance - The TCM sector reported a closing index of 6419.16 points, down 6.46% for the week, while the overall pharmaceutical sector index fell by 6.88% [1][16]. - Among companies, *ST Changyao, Weikang Pharmaceutical, Jiangzhong Pharmaceutical, Yunnan Baiyao, and Dong'e Ejiao showed better performance, while Te Yi Pharmaceutical, Panlong Pharmaceutical, Zhendong Pharmaceutical, Yiling Pharmaceutical, and Enwei Pharmaceutical lagged [1]. Valuation Metrics - The TCM sector's PE ratio is at the 28.94% percentile since 2013, while the PB ratio is at the 5.93% percentile, indicating relatively low valuation compared to historical data [2]. Supply Chain Insights - The market for TCM raw materials is currently weak, with a price index of 224.73 points, reflecting a 0.3% decrease due to oversupply and inventory buildup [3]. Investment Recommendations - Three main investment themes are highlighted: 1. Price governance focusing on competitive advantages and innovation capabilities [5]. 2. Consumption recovery driven by macroeconomic improvement and aging population [5]. 3. State-owned enterprise reform, which is expected to enhance efficiency and performance [5]. Target Companies - Recommended companies include Zhaoli Pharmaceutical and Yiling Pharmaceutical, with a focus on those with strong R&D capabilities and unique products [9].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Maintain "Overweight" [4] Core Views - The rare earth magnetic materials industry has continued its downward trend, with a 5.29% decline this week, underperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 1.52 percentage points [6][13] - The current industry valuation (TTM P/E) has decreased by 3.97x to 69.94x, which is at 84.1% of the historical percentile [6][13] - Light rare earth concentrate prices have rebounded, while medium and heavy rare earth prices have slightly declined [7][10] - The market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of price stabilization and potential upward trends in the future due to tightening supply and improving demand [10][44] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The rare earth magnetic materials sector has seen a relative return of -12% over the past month, -9% over three months, and a positive 46% over the past year [5] - Absolute returns are -15% for one month, -5% for three months, and 57% for twelve months [5] Price Movements - Light rare earth concentrate prices have increased by 2.86% to 3.6 million CNY/ton, 3.23% to 3.2 million CNY/ton, and 3.85% to 2.7 million CNY/ton for different mines [10] - The average price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide has risen by 0.73% to 549,000 CNY/ton, while praseodymium-neodymium metal has slightly decreased by 0.15% [15][17] - Dysprosium prices have continued to decline by 1.66% to 1,485 CNY/kg, and terbium prices have also decreased [22] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating, suggesting that despite high valuation pressures, the expected recovery in rare earth prices and demand could lead to improved profitability for downstream magnetic material companies [44][45] - It is recommended to focus on upstream rare earth resource companies and downstream magnetic material companies with strong customer structures and growth potential [11][45]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the market has experienced significant fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 1000 Index showing contrasting performances in the recent week and year-to-date [3][5][20] - The CSI 1000 Index enhancement strategy has shown a year-to-date return of 21.60%, outperforming the benchmark index by 2.97% [4][18] Market Performance - In the week of November 17-21, 2025, the Shanghai 50 and CSI Dividend Index had the best performances with returns of -2.72% and -3.69%, while the Micro-cap Index and ChiNext Index had the worst returns at -7.80% and -6.15% respectively [3][7] - Year-to-date, the Micro-cap Index and ChiNext Index led with returns of 66.12% and 36.35%, while the CSI Dividend and Shanghai 50 Index lagged with returns of -0.48% and 10.10% [8][20] Strategy Performance - For the week, the CSI 1000 Index enhancement strategy yielded a return of -5.89%, slightly underperforming the index return of -5.80, resulting in an excess return of -0.09% [4][12] - For the month, the strategy's return was -6.45%, compared to the index's -5.85%, leading to an excess return of -0.60% [16] - Year-to-date, the strategy has achieved a return of 21.60%, outperforming the index return of 18.63% by 2.97% [18] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the CSI 1000 Index has shown weak performance recently, attributed to external uncertainties and internal market pressures, indicating a potential for continued volatility [5][20] - The report emphasizes the need for investors to be cautious of the high volatility associated with the CSI 1000 Index, as it may face significant downward pressure in the near term [5][20]

证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 23 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 银行业周报 净息差边际趋稳，巩固核心盈利能力 | 1. | 《2025年中期策略-价值重估仍 | | --- | --- | | 在进行时》 | 2025.07.02 | | 2. | 《业绩底部修复，配置价值提 | | 升》 | 2025.09.05 | | % | 1 个月 | 3 | 个月 | 12 | 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对收益 | 5.9 | | -5.6 | | 5.0 | | 绝对收益 | 2.6 | | -1.8 | | 16.7 | 分析师：郭怡萍 证书编号：S0500523080002 Tel：(8621) 50295327 Email：guoyp@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号中 国人寿金融中心10楼 相关研究： 核心要点： 三季度监管指标：净息差边际趋稳，巩固核心盈利能力 2. 《业绩底部修复，配置价值提 国家金融监管总局发布 2025 年三季度商业银行主要监管指标。三季度商业 银行监管数据呈现核心盈利能力改善态势，部分银 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Viewpoints - The flu activity has risen to near three-year highs, highlighting the urgent demand for flu and related vaccines, and structural opportunities in the flu vaccine market should be closely monitored [5][9] - Recent developments in vaccine companies include clinical trial applications for new vaccines, indicating ongoing innovation and regulatory support for the industry [4][5] - The industry is experiencing a transition from scale expansion to innovation-driven growth, with a focus on high-tech barriers and differentiated pipeline layouts [9][10] Summary by Relevant Sections Recent Industry Performance - The vaccine sector has seen a relative decline of 28% over the past 12 months compared to the CSI 300 index, with a recent absolute decline of 14% [4][6] - The vaccine sector's PE (ttm) is 94.34X, down 7.53X from the previous period, while the PB (lf) is 1.85X, reflecting a decrease of 0.14X [8] Market Dynamics - The National Influenza Center reported a 53.8% increase in flu-like illness cases, with significant activity in both northern and southern provinces [4][5] - The China Vaccine Industry Association has advocated against "involutionary" competition to promote high-quality development in the vaccine sector [4] Investment Recommendations - The vaccine industry is under pressure, with a focus on finding alpha opportunities amid differentiation. Long-term attention should be given to innovation and international expansion [9][10] - Companies with strong R&D capabilities and differentiated products, such as CanSino and Kanghua Biotech, are recommended for investment [10][27]

Group 1: New Materials Industry - The rare earth magnetic materials industry experienced a decline of 4.08% this week, underperforming the benchmark by 3 percentage points [2] - The industry valuation (TTM P/E) fell by 3.32 times to 73.9 times, currently at 87.2% of its historical percentile [2] - Prices of rare earth concentrates showed a slight decline, with mixed carbonate rare earth ore prices dropping by 2.78% [3] - Praseodymium and neodymium prices peaked and then fell, with praseodymium oxide average price decreasing by 1.8% [3] - Dysprosium prices continued to decline, with an average decrease of 2.58% for dysprosium oxide [4] - The price of sintered neodymium-iron-boron N35 decreased by 1.45%, indicating weak demand and limited order releases [4] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The short-term prices in the rare earth sector are driven by market sentiment, with supply expected to decrease before the end of the year, while demand remains positive [5] - The overall valuation and performance levels are supported by loose liquidity and industrial policies, but high valuations may face pressure due to declining market risk appetite [5] - The industry maintains an "overweight" rating, with expectations for price recovery and improved market conditions following the easing of export controls [6] - Focus on upstream rare earth resource companies is recommended due to expected supply contraction and strategic value positioning [6] - Downstream magnetic material companies are also expected to benefit from price recovery, particularly those with strong customer structures and new growth opportunities [6] Group 3: Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage industry saw a decline of 0.56% from November 3 to November 7, while outperforming the broader market indices [8] - The industry valuation is currently at a low level, with a PE ratio of 22X, ranking 23rd among primary industries [9] - The CPI showed a mild increase of 0.2% in October, with food prices declining by 2.9% [10][11] - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on leading companies with stable demand and strong risk resistance, as well as those innovating in new products and channels [12] - The food and beverage sector maintains a "buy" rating, emphasizing the potential for recovery in the current low valuation environment [12]