证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 7 日 湘财证券研究所 金融工程研究 Alpha 策略周报 Alpha 策略与市场趋势研判周报 | 核心要点： | | --- | | 相关研究： | 本周 Alpha 动量组合表现（2025 年 11 月 3 日到 2025 年 11 月 7 日） Alpha 动量组合在整个期间内累计下跌 0.57%，而 HS300 同期累计上涨 0.82%，动量组合相对于 HS300 的超额收益为-1.40%。 本周 Alpha 反转组合表现（2025 年 11 月 3 日到 2025 年 11 月 7 日） Alpha 反转组合在整个期间内累计上涨 0.73%，而 HS300 同期累计上涨 0.82%，相对于 HS300 的超额收益为-0.09%。 行业 Alpha 组合近期表现（2025 年 11 月 1 日到 2025 年 11 月 7 日） 从2025年11月1日截至2025年11月7日，行业Alpha组合累计下跌2.11%， 而 HS300 同期累计上涨 0.82%，相对于 HS300 的超额收益为-2.94%。 Alpha 动量与反转研判市场走势 通过 Alpha 动量与 ...

金融工程研究 一般报告 基于财报盈利增速的行业配置模型 证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 07 日 湘财证券研究所 分析师：别璐莎 证书编号：S0500524010001 Tel：(021) 50293663 Email：bls06644 @xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 行业三季度表现 从全市场看，Wind 全 A 上市公司前三季度的营业收入为 532752.03 亿元， 同比为 1.55%，归母净利润为 46938.93 亿元，同比为 6.25%。 分行业来看，我们对比申万一级行业 Q3 单季度净利润同比（剔除综合行 业），其中，钢铁行业增长最高，达到 203.31%、其他盈利增速较高的行业 有非银金融（65.96%）、传媒（58.63%）、电子（57.42%）等；同时，我们 考虑 Q3 单季度同比增速的边际变化，对比发现，边际增长较高的行业有： 钢铁（380.75%）、电力设备（121.76%）、国防军工（83.60%）、传媒（82.75%）、 电子（59.99%）。 ❑ 行业估值 截至 2025.10.31，当前估值最高的行业为计算机，P ...

Financial Engineering - The report highlights the tracking of an outperforming stock selection strategy, indicating a focus on stocks with net profit growth exceeding expectations and analyst forecasts [1] Active Quantitative Fund Performance - For the week of October 24 to October 31, 2025, the median return of active quantitative funds was 0.09%, while the CSI 300 Index returned -0.43% and the Wind All A Index returned 0.41% [2] - Year-to-date, the median return of active quantitative funds stands at 28.88%, compared to 17.94% for the CSI 300 Index and 26.38% for the Wind All A Index [2] - Top-performing active quantitative funds this week had returns between 3% and 6%, primarily concentrated in the power equipment sector, while underperforming funds had returns between -2% and -5%, mainly focused on the electronics sector [2] Outperforming Stock Selection Strategy - The outperforming stock selection strategy is constructed based on two indicators: year-on-year net profit exceeding expectations and analyst forecasts exceeding expectations [3] - The strategy utilizes the Wind All A index as the underlying stock pool, combining the top 50 stocks based on analyst forecasts and the top 50 stocks based on net profit growth to form the final stock pool [4] - For the week of October 24 to October 31, 2025, the strategy yielded a return of -0.98%, underperforming the Wind All A Index, which returned 0.41% [4] - In the previous month, the strategy achieved a return of 1.34%, outperforming the Wind All A Index, which returned -0.04% [4] - Year-to-date, the strategy's return is 46.11%, significantly higher than the Wind All A Index's return of 26.38%, resulting in an excess return of 19.73% [4] Summary and Investment Recommendations - The report notes that top-performing active quantitative funds are concentrated in the power equipment sector, while high-return funds this year are focused on the electronics sector [5] - The outperforming stock selection strategy's return for the week was -0.98%, while its year-to-date return is 46.11% [5] - In November 2025, the strategy selected 30 stocks, primarily from the machinery and equipment sector [5] - The highest return this year was from Cangge Mining (000408.SZ), with a return of 116.30%, categorized under non-ferrous metals and energy metals [5]

主 题：对近期重要经济金融新闻、行业事件、公司公告等进行点评 时 间：2025 年 11 月 6 日 8:50-9:30 晨 会 纪 要 [2025]第 203 号 会议形式：腾讯会议 参会人员：曹旭特 仇华 许雯 王攀 蒋栋 轩鹏程 文正平 李杰 张智珑 郭怡萍 何超 李育文 李正威 别璐莎 邢维洁 马丽明 贺钰偲 汪炜 聂孟依 整理记录：邢维洁 研究所今日晨会要点如下: 一、宏观部分 1、宏观信息与点评（何超） 1、随着美东时间进入 11 月 4 日，美国联邦政府"停摆"进入第 35 天，追平美国史上最 长"停摆"纪录。在过去的 30 多天里，美国民主、共和两党僵持不下，在国会参议院的 13 次投票中均未能通过共和党提出的一项临时拨款法案。 2、国务院 11 月 4 日发布关于 2026 年部分节假日安排的通知，其中春节假期为九天。消 息发出不到半小时，在线旅游预订平台上，元旦期间和春节期间的火车票以及国际机票搜索 量瞬时翻倍增长，且仍在冲高。假期多出一天，也将刺激更多出行。搜索热度较高的城市依 然是三亚、大理、哈尔滨、海口、西双版纳等旅游城市。 3、2019 年以来，商品住宅现房销售面积占比已从 10% ...

宁波华翔发布 2025 年第三季度报告，公司扣非业绩亮眼 晨 会 纪 要 [2025]第 201 号 研究所今日晨会要点如下: 一、行业与公司 1、汽车行业（汪炜） 根据 wind 数据，2025 年 10 月 29 日，公司发布 2025 年第三季度报告，2025 年第三季 度，公司实现营业收入 63.45 亿元，同比减少 3.01%；公司实现归母净利润 4.62 亿元，同比 增加 149.27%；扣非后归母净利润 4.71 亿元，同比增长 163.06%，主要受益于欧洲业务出售 消除前期亏损拖累，叠加国内自主品牌放量带动利润修复。 公司 2025 年轻量化+智能化转型提速，自主品牌收入冲线 40% 据公司 2025 年中报，公司是中高端乘用车零部件领域的领先企业，致力于通过自主研发 和合作并购的策略，推动产品向轻量化、安全性、智能化和模块化转型。公司抓住国内自主 品牌发展的机遇，积极拓展与领先自主品牌的合作关系。预计到 2025 年，公司来自自主品牌 的收入将超过总营收的 40%。此外，公司注重股东利益并持续实施股份分红政策， 2025 年， 公司持续落实《未来三年(2023-2025 年度)股东回报规划 ...

Tax Policy Overview - The Ministry of Finance has issued a new tax policy regarding gold, effective from November 1, 2025, until December 31, 2027, applicable only to standard gold transactions on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange[11] - Investment gold purchases (e.g., gold bars) will have VAT collected and refunded immediately, with no additional taxes, while sales can only issue ordinary invoices, not special VAT invoices[4][11] - Non-investment gold (e.g., for jewelry or industrial use) will be exempt from VAT, with a 6% input tax deduction available for general taxpayers based on the ordinary invoice amount[4][11] Market Impact - For non-investment gold enterprises, the input tax deduction decreases from 13% to 6%, increasing the effective tax burden by approximately 7 percentage points, potentially leading to the exit of non-compliant small businesses[5][12] - Investment demand may be suppressed in the short term due to VAT inclusion in purchase prices, but gold ETFs are encouraged by the policy[5][12] - Consumer behavior is expected to remain stable as retail prices already include VAT and consumption tax, with the policy promoting investment through exchange channels[5][14] Investment Recommendations - The policy's impact on individual investors is limited, as they typically invest through bank-represented exchange products[15] - Long-term investors are advised to include gold in their asset allocation for risk hedging and diversification, especially following the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts[6][15] - Short-term investors should monitor U.S. economic data and Fed statements for potential price corrections, considering re-entry around the key support level of $3,800[6][15] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected declines in gold prices, fluctuations in tariff negotiations, and unforeseen global geopolitical conflicts[7][16]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the superiority of the "dual low" strategy in the current market environment, particularly focusing on sectors that are expected to benefit from a "de-involution" trend [4][5][29]. Monthly Tracking of Convertible Bonds - In October, the China Convertible Bond Index slightly outperformed the China All Share Index, with a decline of 0.11% compared to a 0.15% drop in the latter. Year-to-date, the Convertible Bond Index has risen by 16.99%, while the All Share Index has increased by 23.49% [11]. - The performance of convertible bonds varied by price category, with high-priced and mid-priced convertible bond indices falling by 2.72% and 0.75%, respectively, while low-priced bonds showed resilience with a 1.44% increase [13][22]. Sector Performance - In October, the energy and financial sectors saw increases in their convertible bond indices, while the technology sector experienced a downturn, with the information technology convertible bond index declining by 0.79% [22]. - The best-performing sectors included energy, financial, and industrial, with their respective convertible bond indices rising by 3.85%, 1.35%, and 1.31% [22]. Strategy Analysis - The "dual low" strategy demonstrated defensive advantages, with the Wind Dual Low Index rising by 0.63% in October, while the high-priced low-premium index fell by 3.4% [29]. - The report highlights the increasing risk of forced redemption for low-value convertible bonds, leading to a reduction in the number of available options for investors [4][35]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests constructing a dual low portfolio focused on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and power equipment, while avoiding high-priced technology stocks [4][32]. - For November, the recommended dual low portfolio consists of six selected convertible bonds, primarily in the power equipment sector, with an average bond price of 128 yuan and a conversion premium of 11% [36][35]. Market Outlook - The report indicates a shift in market style from high-priced sectors to low-priced sectors, particularly as the technology growth sector faces adjustment pressures. It suggests that "de-involution" sectors like photovoltaics and lithium batteries may continue to see upward momentum [37].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][46] Core Views - The rare earth magnetic materials sector experienced a slight decline of 0.21% this week but outperformed the benchmark (CSI 300) by 0.22 percentage points [5][12] - The industry valuation (TTM P/E) has decreased to 80.31x, influenced by third-quarter earnings, currently at the 90.8% historical percentile [5][12] - The prices of rare earth minerals have shown a significant rebound, with domestic mixed rare earth carbonate, Sichuan fluorocarbon cerium ore, and Shandong fluorocarbon cerium ore prices increasing by 9.68%, 11.11%, and 13.64% respectively [9][15] - The market sentiment is improving, with expectations of stable demand and potential recovery in export demand, despite short-term price pressures [44][46] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The rare earth magnetic materials sector slightly declined by 0.21% this week but outperformed the CSI 300 benchmark by 0.22 percentage points [5][12] - Over the past 12 months, the sector has shown a relative return of 76% compared to the CSI 300 [4] Price Trends - Prices for rare earth minerals have rebounded significantly, with notable increases in various categories, including a 5.99% rise in praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices [9][18] - Dysprosium prices have shown a slight recovery, while terbium prices continue to decline [21] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is expected to tighten due to regulatory measures and a potential reduction in production from separation enterprises, while demand remains stable [44] - The demand from downstream sectors, particularly in new energy vehicles and wind power, is showing signs of marginal decline, but overall industrial trends remain positive [44] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating, focusing on upstream rare earth resource companies and downstream magnetic material enterprises with strong customer structures and growth potential [46][10]

Macro Strategy - The October PMI has decreased to 49% from 49.80% in September, influenced by the "Eleventh" holiday and fluctuations in Sino-US trade affecting manufacturing activities [2][3] - A-share indices experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly rising by 0.11% and the ChiNext Index rising by 0.50%, while the CSI 300 fell by 0.43% [3] Industry Overview - In the automotive sector, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) has reached 60%, marking a significant structural change in China's passenger car market [14] - In October, approximately 1.32 million NEVs are expected to be sold, with the penetration rate hitting a historical peak, reflecting a rapid increase from 1.42% in January 2018 to over 60% in just six years [15][16] - The growth in NEV sales is driven by government policies promoting the replacement of old fuel vehicles and consumer preferences for newer, cost-effective technologies [15] - The automotive industry is expected to see continued investment opportunities in the NEV supply chain, including vehicle manufacturing, battery production, charging infrastructure, and smart technologies [16] Investment Recommendations - The automotive sector is positioned for growth due to the acceleration of smart technologies and supportive policies, with a focus on companies leading in intelligent driving and cockpit technologies [17] - Investors are advised to pay attention to high-quality companies in the NEV sector, particularly those with strong market shares and technological advantages [17]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [10] Core Insights - The third quarter performance of listed banks shows signs of stabilization, with revenue growth remaining relatively steady and net profit growth improving [8][10] - For the first three quarters, the revenue growth rate of listed banks decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.9%, while the net profit growth rate increased by 0.7 percentage points to 1.5% compared to the mid-term [8][10] - Large banks showed improved performance growth, while revenue and profit growth for joint-stock banks and regional banks declined [8][10] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Trends - Listed banks' net interest income decline continues to narrow, with a decrease of 0.6% in the first three quarters, an improvement from a 1.3% decline in the mid-term [8][10] - Non-interest income growth decreased by 2 percentage points to 5.0%, while fee income growth increased by 1.5 percentage points to 4.6% [8][10] Asset and Loan Growth - Total asset growth of listed banks slightly slowed to 9.3%, while financial investment growth remained strong at 15.8% [9][10] - Loan growth decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 7.7%, and deposit growth fell to 7.9% [9][10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on state-owned banks for stable high dividend yields, recommending Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Bank of China, as well as joint-stock and regional banks for valuation recovery opportunities [10]