Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need to explore industry structures for investment opportunities, as overall performance in the A-share market remains subdued [9][10] - It identifies two main questions: which industries have reasonable supply structures and improving demand, and which industries are likely to see supply clearance in a context of overall strong supply [9][10] Supply and Demand Analysis 1. Industries with Improving Demand and Reasonable Supply Structures - Key industries to focus on include motorcycles and others, electric grid automation equipment, agricultural product processing, gas, rare earths, fertilizers, as well as consumer electronics, marine equipment, agricultural machinery, coal, thermal power, and broiler farming [20][42] 2. Industries Likely to Achieve Supply Clearance - Industries that are currently optimizing their supply structures and are likely to clear supply include environmental protection, ports, renovation materials, titanium dioxide, pesticides, fluorine chemicals, and coal chemicals [23][42] Detailed Industry Insights 1. Cyclical Industries - Supply structures are relatively reasonable with improving demand in cyclical industries such as coal (thermal and coking), chemicals (civil explosives and fertilizers), and non-ferrous metals (rare earths and other new materials) [13][20] - Industries with potential for supply clearance include energy metals (lithium and diamonds), real estate chain products (glass, cement, titanium dioxide), and chemicals [13][20] 2. Manufacturing Industries - Key manufacturing sectors with reasonable supply structures and improving demand include motorcycles, commercial vehicles, agricultural machinery, and marine equipment [25][29] - Industries likely to see supply clearance include silicon materials, inverters, power transmission and transformation equipment, and military electronics [25][29] 3. Consumer Industries - Consumer sectors with reasonable supply structures and improving demand include broiler farming, pharmaceutical distribution, and beer [31][34] - Industries likely to achieve supply clearance include home appliances, kitchen and bathroom appliances, and leisure foods [31][34] 4. TMT Industries - TMT sectors with reasonable supply structures and improving demand include consumer electronics and semiconductor equipment [36][40] - Industries likely to see supply clearance include panels, passive components, LED, integrated circuit manufacturing, and security equipment [36][40] Summary - The report highlights the importance of focusing on industries with reasonable supply structures and improving demand, as well as those likely to achieve supply clearance, across cyclical, manufacturing, consumer, and TMT sectors [42][56]

行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 轻工制造 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 保险 行 业 投 资 策 略 报 告 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

＃emailAuthor＃ 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 化工 ＃investSuggestion＃ 行 业 研 究 推荐 ( ＃ investSug gestionCh ange＃ 维持 ） ＃title＃ 市场需求持续增长，价格底部反转 ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 9 月 5 日 投资要点 | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 白酒 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------|----------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the securities industry [2] Core Views - The securities industry has undergone stress tests due to market and policy factors, with revenue and net profit declining by 12.7% and 21.9% respectively in H1 2024 [3] - Self-operated business remains the largest revenue source, accounting for 42.2% of total revenue [9] - The industry's profit concentration has increased, with the CR5 of net profit rising by 1.47 percentage points to 47.0% [3] - The brokerage business continues to face pressure, with net income declining by 13.0% in H1 2024 [27] Market and Policy Impact - Revenue from brokerage, investment banking, asset management, self-operated business, and interest income declined by 13.0%, 41.1%, 1.4%, 12.5%, and 29.1% respectively in H1 2024 [9] - Management expenses decreased by 8.7% to 1,114 billion yuan, while credit impairment losses dropped by 31.0% to 18.61 billion yuan [11] - The industry's operating leverage decreased by 3.6% to 3.75 times, with credit leverage and investment leverage declining by 8.8% and 2.1% respectively [14] Brokerage Business - The daily average stock and fund trading volume decreased by 6.8% to 9,846.47 billion yuan in H1 2024 [27] - Commission rates have dropped to 0.02% as of Q1 2024 [27] - Net income from agency trading, seat leasing, and financial product sales declined by 7.5%, 27.7%, and 24.6% respectively in H1 2024 [28] Asset Management Business - The asset management business showed signs of stabilization, with net income increasing by 4.4% to 132.85 billion yuan in H1 2024 [3] - The demand for fixed-income asset management products has risen due to the bond market's strong performance [3] Investment Banking Business - The investment banking business faced significant pressure, with net income declining by 41.1% to 140.03 billion yuan in H1 2024 [9] - The slowdown in equity financing has led to a decline in investment banking revenue, with top-tier securities firms expected to capture a larger market share [3] Self-Operated Business - The self-operated business showed significant divergence, with bond investments becoming a key factor in performance [4] - The total scale of financial assets remained stable, with bond and fund assets increasing by 2.6% and 8.5% respectively in H1 2024 [4] Credit Business - The credit business experienced a slight decline, with the balance of margin trading and securities lending decreasing by 10.3% to 14,809 billion yuan by the end of June 2024 [4] - The interest rate for margin trading and securities lending decreased by 48 basis points to 5.58% [4] Human Resources - The total number of employees in the securities industry decreased by 3.0% to 340,100 by the end of June 2024 [22] - The number of investment advisors and analysts increased by 1.4% and 6.8% respectively, while the number of brokers decreased by 13.4% [23] Key Companies - Key companies such as CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and Guolian Securities are rated as "Overweight" [2] - CITIC Securities maintained its leading position in terms of net profit, while China Galaxy rose to the 5th position in H1 2024 [21]

证券研究报告 ＃industrywide＃ 银行 行 业 研 究 ＃investSuggestion 推荐 ＃(＃ investS uggesti onChan ge＃ 维持） ＃title＃ 业绩稳定，中期分红落地 ——银行业 2024 年半年报总结 ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 9 月 5 日 投资要点 ＃⚫ summary 分红：＃中期分红方案落地，大行分红稳定，部分银行分红率提升。国有五大 行均公布中期利润分配方案，分红比例均在 30%+，分红率与 2023 年持平， 邮储银行同样拟实施中期分红派息。中信银行、沪农商行、南京银行中期分 红比例提升，沪农商行由 30%大幅提升到 33%，南京银行由 30%提升到 32%。 ⚫ 盈利：利润增速回正，大行整体稳健，区域行业绩领先。2024H1 上市银行营 收和归母净利润分别同比-2.0%、+0.4%，拆分来看：①规模扩张增速放缓， 息差降幅收窄，部分银行受益于存款成本改善，息差企稳回升；②中收同比 降幅扩大，主要与代理保险费率下降有关；③其他非息收入受益于债券市场 牛市，投资收益普遍实现高增长；④资产质量保持稳定，减值节约反哺利润。 分板块来看， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains the investment rating for the asset management industry, particularly focusing on dividend strategies and their optimization [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that besides low volatility factors, dividend quality, potential, and growth are also significant directions worth attention in the domestic market. The low volatility dividend strategy has a substantial product scale, with related products amounting to 35.379 billion yuan, accounting for 34% of the total dividend fund scale as of June 2024 [1][7]. - The report suggests that a diversified investment strategy across regions and factors may optimize dividend investment strategies, with global allocations showing excess returns in markets like Japan and the US [1][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Alternative Approaches Beyond Low Volatility - The report identifies dividend quality, potential, and growth as key areas of focus in the domestic market, alongside low volatility strategies. The Smart Beta strategy related to low volatility has a product scale of 35.379 billion yuan, representing 33.96% of the total dividend fund scale [1][7]. 2. Profitability Constraints from Business Models - Profitability, as measured by ROE, shows a concentration in the financial and consumer sectors. The banking sector leads with an average ROE of 13.35% from 2014 to 2023, while non-bank financials have an ROE of 6.95%, about half that of banks [11][12]. 3. Dividend Potential Dependent on Business Models and Intent - The report notes that the ranking of retained earnings among key industries has fluctuated significantly over the past decade. Industries like banking and non-bank financials have shown variability in their retained earnings, impacting their dividend potential [15][16]. 4. Dividend Growth Reliant on Industry Stability - The report highlights that cash dividend growth rates are leading in manufacturing and cyclical industries, with the economic cycle being a crucial variable. Industries like telecommunications and renewable energy have shown high compound growth rates in dividends, while resource sectors like coal and metals have seen significant increases in dividends during favorable market conditions [18]. 5. Underlying Industry Preferences from Different Strategy Factors - The report discusses how different strategy factors lead to varying underlying industry preferences. The quality factor focuses on profitability, while the potential factor emphasizes future dividend capacity, leading to a concentration in non-bank financials and consumer sectors [2][10].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the electronics industry [2] Core Views - The electronics industry showed significant improvement in 2024H1, with total revenue and net profit increasing by 17.30% and 39.24% YoY respectively [3] - Semiconductor sector benefited from strong Android smartphone sales and PC restocking, driving upstream chip inventory replenishment [3] - Passive components sector is in a recovery phase, with leading companies showing improved operating rates and product structures [4] - PCB sector is expected to benefit from AI demand and data center construction, with high-end products driving value growth [5] - Consumer electronics sector is poised for a replacement cycle driven by on-device AI, with Apple expected to lead the trend [5] Key Companies and Ratings - Key companies with "Buy" ratings: Luxshare Precision, Hikvision [1] - Key companies with "Overweight" ratings: Unimicron, AAC Technologies, Goertek, etc. [1] Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor sector revenue grew 22.01% YoY in 2024H1, with equipment and materials benefiting from domestic expansion and localization [3] - Semiconductor equipment sector revenue increased 38.45% YoY in 2024H1, driven by domestic wafer fab expansion [24] - Semiconductor materials sector revenue grew 9.76% YoY in 2024H1, with continued improvement expected due to rising wafer fab utilization rates [32] - IC design sector revenue increased 36.01% YoY in 2024H1, with digital SoC and analog chip segments showing strong recovery [43] Passive Components Sector - Passive components sector revenue grew 18.58% YoY in 2024H1, with MLCC and inductor segments showing strong performance [4] - Leading companies like Sanan Optoelectronics and Sunlord Electronics are benefiting from AI-driven demand in smartphones and PCs [4] PCB Sector - PCB sector is benefiting from AI server demand and data center construction, with high-end products driving value growth [5] - Key companies like Unimicron and Shennan Circuits are well-positioned in high-end data communication PCB markets [5] Consumer Electronics Sector - Consumer electronics sector is expected to see a replacement cycle driven by on-device AI, with Apple leading the trend [5] - Key companies like Luxshare Precision and Goertek are expected to benefit from value chain upgrades in the Apple ecosystem [5] Panel Sector - Panel prices reached a peak in June 2024 but started to decline due to weaker demand, with stabilization expected in Q4 [6] - Leading panel manufacturers like BOE and TCL are maintaining stable profit margins through capacity control [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating for the coal mining industry, with specific recommendations for key companies such as "Buy" for Shaanxi Coal and "Overweight" for China Shenhua [4]. Core Insights - The coal price remains under pressure, with a significant decline in fund holdings, indicating a growing underweight position in the sector. The coal sector has seen a slight decline of 1.1% from the beginning of 2024 to the end of August, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.3 percentage points [2][8]. - The report highlights a decrease in net profit for the coal mining sector, with a total of 816 billion yuan in net profit for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 24.6%. However, the decline in profit has narrowed in the second quarter compared to the first quarter [3][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of dividend distribution, noting that 7 coal companies have proposed interim dividends, reflecting an increasing focus on shareholder returns [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Coal Price Pressure and Fund Holdings - The coal sector has outperformed the market, with a 1.1% decline compared to a 4.5% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [8]. - The average long-term contract price for thermal coal has remained stable around 700 yuan per ton, while spot prices have faced continuous pressure [11][12]. - Public fund holdings in the coal sector decreased to 27.9 billion yuan in Q2 2024, a reduction of 21.1% from the previous quarter, indicating an increased underweight position [14]. 2. 2024 Half-Year Report Summary - The coal mining sector's total revenue for H1 2024 was 681.4 billion yuan, down 8.6% year-on-year, with operating costs also declining by 5.3% [19][20]. - The return on equity (ROE) for the coal mining sector decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 6.9%, but it remains competitive compared to other sectors [29][32]. - Coal production and sales showed positive growth, with a total production of 595 million tons, up 1.3% year-on-year, and sales of 586 million tons, up 1.9% [33]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that coal prices are expected to stabilize, which may enhance the performance stability of coal companies and attract long-term capital [3]. - Recommended companies include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Huabei Mining, among others, indicating a focus on firms with strong dividend policies and lower volatility [3][4].