＃assAuthor＃ 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 机械设备 ＃investSuggestion＃ 增持 ( ＃ investSug gestionCh ange＃ 维持 ） 公 司 点 评 报 告 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|-------------------------------------| | | | | 日期 | 2024-9-5 | | 收盘价（元） | 9.33 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1978.99 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 1440.69 | | 净资产（百万元） | 17324.07 | | 总资产（百万元） | 47428.68 | | 每股净资产（元） 来源： iFinD | 8.71 ，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 | ＃相关报告 relatedReport＃ ＃分析师： emailAuthor＃ 石康 shikang@xyzq.com.cn S1220517040001 郭亚男 guoyanan@xyzq.com.cn S0190522120004 ＃dyCompany＃ 柳工 （ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" rating for the company [1][2][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 8.908 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.34%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 896 million yuan, down 2.97% year-on-year [2][3]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2024 was 33.03%, an increase of 1.52 percentage points year-on-year, driven by stable raw material prices and internal cost reduction efforts [1][2]. - The company expects external sales to remain supported in the second half of 2024, despite a slowdown in growth due to various factors affecting the supply chain [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 33.03%, with domestic sales gross margin at 37.82% and foreign sales gross margin at 26.04% [1][2]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 19.504 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.5% year-on-year growth, while net profit is expected to be 2.007 billion yuan, showing a minimal increase of 0.1% [5][6]. - The report indicates that the company’s operating expenses slightly increased due to revenue impacts, but overall profitability remains stable [1][2]. Sales and Market Dynamics - Domestic sales revenue for the first half of 2024 was 4.722 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.79% year-on-year, with expectations of a larger decline in the second quarter due to external market conditions [3][4]. - The company plans to adjust its strategy in the second half of 2024 to focus more on single product promotions and expand its product price range to better meet consumer demand [3][4]. - Despite challenges, certain product categories are expected to maintain high growth rates due to ongoing resource investments and competitive package offerings [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD, projecting a net profit of 38.769 billion yuan for 2024, 49.647 billion yuan for 2025, and 58.004 billion yuan for 2026 [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant overseas market potential for passenger vehicles, estimating a potential sales volume of over 50 million units, with a single company potentially achieving sales of 4 million units abroad. The global penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is expected to rise, presenting historical opportunities for BYD [1][6]. - The report emphasizes that the low penetration rate of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in Europe is primarily a supply issue rather than a demand issue, suggesting that BYD's expansion into PHEVs could replicate the success seen in the domestic market [1][6]. - The report outlines BYD's strategic progress in four major regions, with plans to expand its product line from electric vehicles (EVs) to PHEVs in 2024, and highlights the company's proactive inventory management and production capacity expansion [1][6]. Summary by Sections Market Data - As of September 6, 2024, BYD's closing price is 251.60 yuan, with a total share capital of 2,909.27 million shares and net assets of 142,787.20 million yuan [1]. Space for Growth - The report identifies a potential overseas market space for Chinese passenger vehicles exceeding 50 million units, with local brands accounting for 29.67 million units in 2023. The total global passenger vehicle sales, excluding local brands, is approximately 52.1 million units [6][9]. Market Structure - The report notes that the European market has a high EV penetration rate but a low PHEV penetration rate, indicating a supply issue. In the Asia-Pacific region, BYD faces challenges related to consumer education and EV adoption, while the South American market shows potential for compact vehicles and pickups [1][6]. Progress - BYD has exported over 200,000 vehicles in the first half of 2024, with plans to expand its product offerings globally. The company is utilizing a dealer model for market expansion and is actively managing inventory levels [1][6]. Outlook - The report anticipates that despite potential tariff impacts, the profitability of overseas products will remain higher than domestic products. The introduction of PHEVs in Europe is expected to enhance BYD's competitive position and overall profitability [1][6].

行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 传媒 行 业 投 资 策 略 报 告 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 高速 ＃investSuggestion＃ ＃assAuthor＃ ＃ investSug gestionCh ange＃ 维持 ） 买入 ( 公 司 点 评 报 告 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|-------------------------------------| | ＃市场数据 marketData ＃ | | | 日期 | 2024/9/4 | | 收盘价（元） | 15.99 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1659 | | | | | 流通股本（百万股） | 1166 | | 净资产（百万元） | 12470 | | 总资产（百万元） | 23363 | | 每股净资产（元） 来源： WIND | 7.52 ，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 | ＃相关报告 relatedReport＃ 【兴证交运】《皖通高速 2023 年报点评：核心路段潜力释放， 成 长 性 位 于 板 块 前 列 》 2024-04-08 【兴证交运】《皖通高速 2023 年中报点评：核心路段潜力释 放，拟提高分红回报股 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need to explore industry structures for investment opportunities, as overall performance in the A-share market remains subdued [9][10] - It identifies two main questions: which industries have reasonable supply structures and improving demand, and which industries are likely to see supply clearance in a context of overall strong supply [9][10] Supply and Demand Analysis 1. Industries with Improving Demand and Reasonable Supply Structures - Key industries to focus on include motorcycles and others, electric grid automation equipment, agricultural product processing, gas, rare earths, fertilizers, as well as consumer electronics, marine equipment, agricultural machinery, coal, thermal power, and broiler farming [20][42] 2. Industries Likely to Achieve Supply Clearance - Industries that are currently optimizing their supply structures and are likely to clear supply include environmental protection, ports, renovation materials, titanium dioxide, pesticides, fluorine chemicals, and coal chemicals [23][42] Detailed Industry Insights 1. Cyclical Industries - Supply structures are relatively reasonable with improving demand in cyclical industries such as coal (thermal and coking), chemicals (civil explosives and fertilizers), and non-ferrous metals (rare earths and other new materials) [13][20] - Industries with potential for supply clearance include energy metals (lithium and diamonds), real estate chain products (glass, cement, titanium dioxide), and chemicals [13][20] 2. Manufacturing Industries - Key manufacturing sectors with reasonable supply structures and improving demand include motorcycles, commercial vehicles, agricultural machinery, and marine equipment [25][29] - Industries likely to see supply clearance include silicon materials, inverters, power transmission and transformation equipment, and military electronics [25][29] 3. Consumer Industries - Consumer sectors with reasonable supply structures and improving demand include broiler farming, pharmaceutical distribution, and beer [31][34] - Industries likely to achieve supply clearance include home appliances, kitchen and bathroom appliances, and leisure foods [31][34] 4. TMT Industries - TMT sectors with reasonable supply structures and improving demand include consumer electronics and semiconductor equipment [36][40] - Industries likely to see supply clearance include panels, passive components, LED, integrated circuit manufacturing, and security equipment [36][40] Summary - The report highlights the importance of focusing on industries with reasonable supply structures and improving demand, as well as those likely to achieve supply clearance, across cyclical, manufacturing, consumer, and TMT sectors [42][56]

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