行业周报 | 国防军工 证券研究报告 | 行业评级 | 推荐 (维持) | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025 年 02 月 23 日 | 相关研究 【兴证军工观察】战略看多航天精导产业 链-2025.02.19 【兴证军工】"全国低空交通一张网"正 式启动，统一标准实现高水平布局 -2025.02.18 【兴证军工】体系梗阻破冰在即，结构性 反转可待-2025.02.09 S1220517040001 shikang@xyzq.com.cn S0190519080005 liboyan@xyzq.com.cn S0190524070009 xudongxiao@xyzq.com.cn 行业评级 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2025 年 02 月 23 日 继续战略看多航天精导产业链，十四五末需求 拐点已至 投资要点： 2025-02-10 至 2025-02-21，国防军工（中信）指数上涨 2.20%，在 30 个一级行业指数中涨幅第 15， 跑输上证指数 0.08pct，与沪深 300 指数涨幅相同，跑输创业板指数 2.73pct。 分析师：石康 截至 2 月 21 日，219 个军工标的 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the A-share electricity index increased by 0.33% during the period from February 17 to February 21, 2025, with a TTM PE valuation of 17.0x. The gas sector index decreased by 0.91%, with a TTM PE valuation of 13.1x [3][5] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that the global natural gas market will remain tight in the first quarter of 2025, with demand growth slowing to below 2% [4][6] - The report suggests investment opportunities in the electricity sector, particularly in thermal power companies like Waneng Power, Huadian International, and others, as well as in hydropower and nuclear power sectors [7] Summary by Sections Electricity Sector Data Tracking - As of February 21, 2025, the market price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port is 730 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.67% compared to February 14. The inventory at Qinhuangdao Port is 7.03 million tons, an increase of 3.4% week-on-week [13][30] - The inflow and outflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir on February 21 show an inflow of 0.66 cubic meters per second, up 32% year-on-year, and an outflow of 0.86 cubic meters per second, up 25.81% year-on-year [30][31] - The total electricity consumption in 2024 is projected to be 98,521 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [55] Gas Sector Data Tracking - As of February 21, 2025, the average ex-factory price of domestic gas is 4,332 RMB/ton, an increase of 4.70% from February 14. The average ex-factory price of imported LNG is 4,995 RMB/ton, up 2.33% [59][61] - The report notes that the LNG price at the Chinese ports is 13.90 USD/million BTU, which translates to approximately 3.52 RMB/cubic meter, showing a year-on-year increase of 69.20% [56][59]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the recent strong gold prices are primarily driven by robust gold purchasing behavior in the U.S., with Comex gold inventory increasing by 500 tons to 1181 tons since the beginning of 2025, marking a 73% increase [1] - The report anticipates a short-term price correction for base metals due to the easing of sanctions on Russian commodities as the Russia-Ukraine conflict trends towards resolution, while medium-term demand for base metals is expected to strengthen due to EU interest rate cuts and post-war reconstruction efforts in the region [1] - The report highlights that gold prices are expected to continue rising due to liquidity easing and inflation expectations, with a recommendation to focus on companies like Shandong Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [2] - Aluminum prices are on the rise due to improved macro sentiment and tariff concerns, with the report suggesting attention to companies like Yun Aluminum and Tianshan Aluminum [3] - Copper prices are experiencing weakness, with a focus on monitoring end-demand recovery as a key factor for future price movements, while the report suggests potential opportunities in companies like Jincheng Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [4] - Lithium carbonate prices have seen a slight decrease, but the report notes that the supply-demand balance remains under pressure, recommending attention to companies like Zhongjin Lingnan and Yongxing Materials [5][6] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have continued to rise, breaking above $2950 per ounce, driven by heightened risk aversion and U.S. economic data showing mixed signals [2] - The report emphasizes the long-term upward trend in gold prices due to monetary expansion and fiscal deficit monetization, suggesting investment in gold-related stocks [2] Industrial Metals - Aluminum prices are rising due to stable production and increased downstream demand, with profits in the electrolytic aluminum sector recovering to nearly 3000 yuan/ton [3] - Copper prices are under pressure, with domestic inventory accumulation indicating weak demand, while external supply remains tight [4] Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate has slightly decreased, with production expected to increase as lithium salt plants resume operations [5][6] Market Dynamics - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metal sector has seen a decline of 1.52%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.48 percentage points [21]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the environmental sector, including the proposal for Chongqing to add over 500,000 tons/day of wastewater treatment capacity by 2025 and the promotion of circular economy initiatives in various provinces [3][4] - The carbon market is showing increased activity, with a notable rise in trading volumes and fluctuations in pricing, indicating a growing interest and potential for investment in carbon-related assets [4][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of traditional environmental businesses with stable operational capabilities, suggesting that these companies may see a revaluation in their stock prices due to their profitability certainty [4][28] Summary by Sections Important Data Tracking - From February 17 to February 21, the national carbon market saw a trading volume of 249,200 tons, a 126.24% increase compared to the previous period [4][8] - The average closing price for carbon emission allowances was 89.90 yuan/ton, reflecting a slight decrease [4][8] Market Performance - During the period from February 17 to February 21, the A-share environmental index rose by 2.76%, while the H-share environmental index increased by 2.07% [19] - The sub-sectors within the environmental industry showed varied performance, with solid waste treatment and resource utilization up by 2.23% and air pollution control up by 1.47% [19] Industry News - Shanghai aims to achieve near-zero landfill waste by the end of 2026, with specific targets for various types of waste [25][26] - Shandong is piloting a program for the directional utilization of hazardous waste, which could set a precedent for waste management practices [26] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong operational capabilities and cash flow, particularly those that can benefit from new environmental demands, such as semiconductor waste gas treatment [4][28] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Hongcheng Environment, Huanlan Environment, and Weiming Environmental, with a suggestion to pay attention to Yongxing Co., Ltd. [4][28][29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [3] Core Viewpoints - The report continues to be bullish on the aerospace precision-guided industry chain, indicating that the demand inflection point is approaching by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][5] - From February 10 to February 21, 2025, the defense and military industry (CITIC) index rose by 2.20%, ranking 15th among 30 primary industry indices, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.08 percentage points and matching the performance of the CSI 300 Index, while underperforming the ChiNext Index by 2.73 percentage points [4][11] Market Performance - The CITIC defense and military index increased by 1.66% over the last five trading days (February 17 to February 21), while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.97% and the ChiNext Index by 2.99% [17] - Year-to-date (as of February 21, 2025), the CITIC defense and military index has risen by 0.17%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.65 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 6.36 percentage points [17] Company Performance and Earnings Forecast - As of February 21, 2025, among 219 military stocks, 144 have released their 2024 earnings forecasts or reports, with 18 stocks showing an increase of over 100%, and 12 stocks showing an increase between 50% and 100% [5][11] - The report categorizes 111 military products with over half of their revenue/profit, with 65 stocks having released forecasts, showing median changes of -72.58% for upstream, -79.76% for midstream, and -85.51% for downstream [6][12] - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Feilihua, Aerospace Electronics, and others as potential investment opportunities [8][15] Financing Balance - The current financing balance of the military sector accounts for 3.55% of the sector's circulating market value, which is 1.17 percentage points higher than the overall A-share market [25][26] Recent Company Listings - The report tracks new listings in the military sector since June 2023, including companies like Aerospace Huanyu and Guoke Military Industry, with varying market performances [23]

行业周报 | 环保 证券研究报告 | 报告日期 | 2025 年 02 月 23 日 | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 推荐（维持） | 相关研究 【兴证环保】环保周报：重庆提出 2025 年新增污水处理能力 50 万吨/天以上，陕 西全面推进美丽陕西建设-2025.02.16 【兴证环保】环保周报：广东提出推动 加快设立省属回收循环利用平台企业， 四川全面推进美丽四川建设-2025.02.09 【兴证环保】环保周报：中央推进农村 绿色发展及生态改善，上海提出 2026 年 底前基本实现固废近零填埋-2025.01.26 分析师：蔡屹 S0190518030002 caiyi@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：李静云 S0190522120001 lijingyun@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：史一粟 S0190523110001 shiyisu@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：朱理显 S0190525010004 zhulixian@xyzq.com.cn 上海 2026 年底前实现固体废物近零填埋目 标，山东试点危废定向利用 投资要点： 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/9 ⚫ 重要数据 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of capital expenditure in the domestic AI infrastructure, driven by major internet companies, which is expected to boost demand for AIDC electrical equipment [6][7] - The lithium battery sector is showing signs of supply-demand improvement, with key players like Nord's subsidiary signing supply agreements, indicating a positive trend for 2025 [8][9] - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing continuous optimization on the supply side, with expectations for demand recovery and profitability improvements in 2025 [11][12] - The wind power sector is experiencing a significant increase in orders, with a forecasted new installation peak in 2025, driven by improved demand and cost optimization [13][14] - The report emphasizes ongoing high-voltage direct current (HVDC) construction projects, with the Qinggui project expected to be approved for construction within the year [16][18] Summary by Sections AIDC Electrical Equipment - The domestic AI competition is intensifying, with expectations for sustained acceleration in computing power construction [6][7] - Investment opportunities are identified in AIDC electrical equipment, particularly in ACDC, HVDC, and BBU segments [6][9] Lithium Battery - The industry is witnessing a gradual improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with major companies achieving full production capacity [8][9] - Recommendations include focusing on leading lithium battery manufacturers and related materials [9][10] Photovoltaic Industry - The supply chain is optimizing, with expectations for price recovery and demand resurgence in 2025 [11][12] - New technologies aimed at cost reduction and efficiency improvements are highlighted as key investment areas [12] Wind Power - A significant increase in new wind turbine orders is reported, with a forecast of 180GW for 2024, marking an 89% year-on-year increase [13][14] - The report suggests that the wind power sector is entering an upward cycle, driven by demand recovery and cost optimization [14][15] Power Grid - The report notes the ongoing progress in ultra-high voltage construction, with specific projects expected to commence soon [16][18] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies involved in high-voltage and distribution network construction [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the transportation industry [2]. Core Insights - The transportation industry is expected to see continued demand growth in 2025, with a focus on performance-elastic stocks [4]. - The express delivery sector experienced a significant increase in business volume and revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 21.5% in business volume and 13.8% in revenue for 2024 [5][18]. - The report highlights the recovery of oil tanker rates and steady growth in express delivery volumes, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [4]. Summary by Sections Weekly Industry Data Tracking (2025.02.17 - 02.22) - **Aviation Data**: Domestic flight volume was 95,561 flights, with an average of 13,652 flights per day, down 3.94% week-on-week and 2.25% year-on-year. Domestic passenger volume reached 13.4471 million, down 3.71% week-on-week and 4.88% year-on-year [9][10]. - **Express Delivery Data**: For the week of 2025.2.10-2025.2.16, the average daily collection volume was approximately 518 million pieces, and the delivery volume was about 553 million pieces, with week-on-week increases of 4.35% and 45.05% respectively [14]. - **Shipping Data**: The BDI index was 873 points, up 10% week-on-week. The VLCC-TCE rate was $44,366 per day, up 11% week-on-week [46][47]. Recent Key Reports - The report lists several recent key reports, including strategies for the express delivery sector and insights into the oil tanker market, indicating ongoing research and analysis in the transportation industry [52][53]. Recommended Stocks - The report suggests a recommended stock portfolio including companies such as COSCO Shipping Energy, Shandong Hi-Speed, and China Eastern Airlines, among others, indicating a diversified approach to investment in the transportation sector [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes increasing allocations to AI and domestic leading companies, driven by a boost in confidence for a strong technological nation and supportive policies [4][6] - Alibaba's significant capital expenditure, reaching 31.775 billion yuan in a single quarter, reflects a strong commitment to AI development, indicating a sustained high demand in the computing power supply chain [4][6] - The report suggests focusing on companies in the AI and domestic innovation sectors, particularly those with high cost-performance ratios [4][6] Summary by Sections Industry Weekly Viewpoints - The report highlights the need to enhance investments in AI and domestic leading companies, supported by recent policy initiatives emphasizing self-innovation [6] - The computing power supply chain is experiencing high demand, with major players like Alibaba increasing their investments significantly [6] DeepSeek and Inference Computing Power Market - DeepSeek has significantly reduced the training cost for large models, with a single training session costing only 5.576 million USD [8][9] - The inference computing power market shows immense growth potential, with future demand estimates ranging from 283.8 billion to 1.1036 trillion yuan under different scenarios [13][17] - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Haiguang Information, Inspur Information, and others that are adapting to DeepSeek technology [23] Market Performance Review - From February 16 to February 22, the computer index rose by 3.76%, outperforming other major indices [25] - The report notes that the computer sector ranked fourth among all industries during this period [25] Major News - The report includes significant advancements in AI, such as the introduction of new algorithms and models that enhance AI capabilities [28][30][40] - It also mentions the increasing utilization of computing power centers, driven by the demand for AI applications [42]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a strong fluctuation in pig prices and an upward trend in corn prices [2] - The average price of live pigs as of February 21 is 14.79 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.23% [21] - The report indicates that supply pressures are limited due to some farming enterprises choosing to hold back pigs for weight gain, while demand remains subdued [21] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The industry index for the period from February 14 to February 21 shows a decline of 1.41% [15] - Individual stock performances varied, with notable declines in companies like Wen's Foodstuffs (-0.75%) and Muyuan Foods (-2.88%), while New Hope saw an increase of 8.67% [15] 2. Livestock Prices - The average price of live pigs is reported at 14.79 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 1.23% [21] - The price of broiler chickens is 2.85 CNY/500g, down 2.40% from the previous week, indicating a surplus in supply and weak demand [21] 3. Grain Prices - Domestic corn prices are reported at 2108.57 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.34% week-on-week [20] - The price of domestic wheat is 2408.61 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.44% [20] 4. Oil Prices - The price of soybean oil is reported at 8380.00 CNY/ton, showing a decrease of 0.48% week-on-week [20] 5. Sugar, Cotton, and Rubber - Domestic sugar prices are at 6160.00 CNY/ton, with an increase of 1.48% week-on-week [20] 6. Aquaculture Prices - The price of shrimp is reported at 300.00 CNY/kg, reflecting a decrease of 6.25% week-on-week [20]