行业周报 | 房地产 证券研究报告 | 行业评级 | 中性(维持) | | --- | --- | | | 2025 年 03 月 02 日 | 相关研究 【兴证地产】新房二手房周报：统筹做好 房企融资支持和债券违约风险防控 -2025.02.23 【兴证地产】新房二手房周报：广东省多 地落地专项债收储，1 月居民中长期贷款 新增 4935 亿元-2025.02.16 【兴证地产】2025 年 1 月房地产行业回 顾：回稳与分化-2025.02.10 分析师：靳璐瑜 S0190520080003 jinluyu@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：洪波 S0190523040002 hongbo@xyzq.com.cn | 一、 本周市场重要信息及数据概览 . | | --- | | ニ、 附录 … | | （一） 长三角地区 . | | （二） 珠三角地区 . | | （三） 环渤海地区 ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 11 | | ( 四 ) 海西 ...

证券研究报告 返城进度接近尾声， 地产销售再现"小阳春" 中观数据周报 分析师： 段超（S0190516070004） 于长馨（S0190525010003） 研究助理：谢智勇 报告日期：2025年3月2日 投资要点 KEY POINTS 国内政策：政治局会议讨论政府工作报告；中俄领导人通话 1 • 国内政策：政治局会议讨论政府工作报告；中俄领导人通话。本周中央层面，中共中央政治局召开会议，讨论政府工作报告，强调坚持 稳中求进工作总基调。金融财税方面，国家发改委印发《促进普惠养老服务高质量发展的若干措施》的通知，从推动服务供给提质扩面、 培育发展服务机构、统筹利用存量资产、健全服务机构价格形成机制、优化综合监管与服务、营造良好发展环境这六个方面提出措施。 外交方面，习近平与俄罗斯总统普京通电话，双方围绕落实中俄关系、乌克兰危机等深入交换意见。 • 返城复工：返城进度接近尾声，建筑项目复工率仍弱于近年同期。百度迁徙指数显示，节后返城强度高于去年同期、接近2023年水平； 第三方（百年建筑）建筑工地调研数据显示，截至2月28日（二月初一），样本工地开复工率、劳务到位率仍低于近年同期。 • 生产&基建：生产活动缓慢 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry [2] Core Views - Domestic demand remains a crucial driver for economic growth, with a positive outlook on leading consumer companies and a focus on AI+ consumption investment opportunities [2] - The Chinese government is expected to have more room for fiscal and monetary policy adjustments, which will further support domestic demand as a key growth driver [2] - As the economy gradually recovers and market expectations for stable growth policies increase, discretionary consumption is anticipated to see improvements in performance and valuation [2] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The social service index fell by 2.82% from February 24 to February 28, 2025, ranking 25th among 31 industry indices [5] - The retail index increased by 1.55% during the same period, ranking 13th, with a cumulative increase of 8.15% since the beginning of 2024 [5] - The beauty care index rose by 1.67%, ranking 12th, but has seen a cumulative decline of 11.66% since the start of 2024 [5] Sub-Industry Dynamics Restaurant and Tourism - Greenland Group aims to achieve over 10 billion yuan in tourism revenue within five years [13] - Tongcheng Travel integrates AI technology to enhance user experience in travel solutions [13] Retail - The duty-free sector shows strong growth, with a significant increase in visitor numbers during the Spring Festival [16] - Major retail players like Yonghui Supermarket are expanding their presence through strategic partnerships [17] Beauty and Personal Care - The rise of private label brands is notable, with significant sales achievements in the cosmetics sector [19] - New product launches and technological advancements are driving growth in the beauty industry [20] Company Updates - Key companies in the social service sector, such as Kerui International, reported a revenue increase of 20.60% for 2024 [23] - Beijing Renli announced a strategic transfer of its subsidiary, reflecting ongoing adjustments in corporate structure [25] - Focus on digital transformation is evident in companies like Lianhua Supermarket, which raised funds for business ecosystem upgrades [18]

行业周报 | 汽车 证券研究报告 行业评级 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2025 年 03 月 02 日 相关研究 【兴证汽车】周动态：上汽与华为签署 深度合作协议，人形机器人巨头 Figure 重磅发布 Helix-2025.02.24 【兴证汽车】周动态：比亚迪宣布全系 车型将搭载高阶智驾，华为上汽或合作 敲定鸿蒙智行新品牌-2025.02.17 【兴证汽车】Deepseek 赋能，智能化平 权加速来临-2025.02.11 分析师：董晓彬 S0190520080001 dongxiaobin@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：王凯丽 S0190522070001 wangkaili@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：于鹏亮 S0190524030006 yupengliang@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：刘馨遥 S0190524070005 liuxinyao@xyzq.com.cn 周动态：特斯拉 FSD 正式入华，小米新车 SU7 Ultra 上市订单超预期 投资要点： 表1、重点指数周表现（2025.02.22-2025.02.28） | 指数 | 周涨跌幅 | | 周成交额（亿元） 年初至今涨跌幅 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability driven by accelerated global expansion, domestic capacity release, and optimization of customer structure [4][41] - The company is actively expanding into the humanoid robot sector, with significant potential for domestic substitution in precision gear components [39][40] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 2103 million, 2040 million, 2550 million, and 3040 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.3%, -3.0%, 25.0%, and 19.2% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 238 million, 165 million, 251 million, and 312 million for the same years, with growth rates of -3.9%, -30.7%, 52.6%, and 24.3% respectively [3] - The company’s PE ratios for the years 2023E, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 25.2, 36.4, 23.8, and 19.2 [3] Capacity Expansion and Global Layout - Domestic capacity is being released, and overseas expansion is progressing smoothly, with the Thai factory expected to begin production in Q2 2025 [4][37] - The Moroccan factory is positioned as a key overseas capacity layout, leveraging local automotive industry advantages to serve European and North American markets [16][20] Humanoid Robot Business Development - The company is making significant strides in developing core components for humanoid robots, with a focus on planetary gear reducers [39][40] - The global market for planetary reducers is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 10% from 2024 to 2029, indicating substantial market potential [39][40] Investment Recommendations - The company is well-positioned for mid-term performance improvement, with expected net profits of 165 million, 251 million, and 312 million for 2024-2026 [41] - The report emphasizes the potential for new revenue streams from the humanoid robot sector and the benefits of global capacity optimization [41]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Views - The real estate beta factor is more positive, suggesting a proactive layout in retail building materials [6] - Attention is drawn to the cement industry's bottom improvement, with price increases stabilizing profits during the off-season, indicating emerging bottom signals [8] - There is a recommendation to focus on high-dividend stocks for their allocation value [9] - The strategy for 2025 indicates a profit bottom, with a supply-demand inflection point approaching [12] Market Performance - The report includes market performance data for the period from February 24 to February 28, 2025 [15] Price Changes - Cement prices during the specified period showed fluctuations, with specific price points noted for different types of cement [20] - The report also covers price changes for float glass and fiberglass during the same period [24][29] Company Tracking and Industry News - Key companies such as Zhonggang Rongnai and Dongfang Yuhong reported significant declines in revenue and net profit for 2024 [47] - The report highlights industry news, including the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's announcement of urban village renovation projects and the National Energy Administration's goals for renewable energy generation in 2025 [49]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of traditional environmental protection sectors with stable operational capabilities, which are expected to see a revaluation due to their relatively high profit certainty. Additionally, new industries are emerging, creating new environmental governance demands, such as semiconductor waste gas treatment, leading to the birth of several growth-oriented companies. The report also highlights the easing of accounts receivable pressure in the environmental sector due to a comprehensive debt policy package approved by the National People's Congress in November 2024 [3][28]. Summary by Sections Important Data Tracking - From February 24 to February 28, the national carbon market saw a trading volume of 426,200 tons, an increase of 70.99% compared to the previous period. The closing price for carbon emission allowances was 89.56 yuan/ton, down 0.21% day-on-day and 0.38% compared to the previous period [3][7]. Market Performance - During the period from February 24 to February 28, the A-share environmental index decreased by 0.49%, while the H-share environmental index increased by 0.34%. The overall market performance saw the Shanghai Composite Index drop by 1.72%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.46%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.87% [18][19]. Industry News - Hubei Province issued the "2025 Provincial Ecological Environment Protection Work Points," aiming to achieve high water quality in major rivers and lakes, with a target of 91.7% for good water quality in surface water monitoring sections. The document also sets goals for air quality and groundwater quality, emphasizing the need to meet national assessment standards [23][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong operational capabilities and cash flow pressures alleviated by debt relief measures. It suggests investing in established companies with significant potential during their second entrepreneurial phase and selecting emerging environmental companies that benefit from high growth prospects. Specific recommendations include Hongcheng Environment, Hanlan Environment, and Weiming Environmental, with a suggestion to pay attention to Yongxing Co., Ltd. [3][28][29].

行业周报 | 社会服务 证券研究报告 相关研究 【兴证社服】国务院国资委部署深化中央 企业"AI+"专项行动，阿里巴巴财报超 预期-2025.02.23 【兴证社服&零售&美护】行业周报 （2025.2.10-2025.2.14）东盟旅游团免签 助力云南游，万豪 2024 年客房净增 6.8%-2025.02.17 【兴证社服&零售&美护】行业周报 （2025.2.3-2025.2.7）春节期间全国重点 零售餐饮销售额+4.1%，两家教育上市公 司接入 DeepSeek-2025.02.12 分析师：代凯燕 S0190519050001 daiky@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：熊超 S0190517080005 xiongchao@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：金秋 S0190520080004 jinqiu@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：张彬鸿 S0190523010001 zhangbinhong@xyzq.com.cn 研究助理：陆焱 luyan23@xyzq.com.cn pengxinyao@xyzq.com.cn 行业评级 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2025 年 03 月 02 日 胖东来+ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Insights - The automotive sector is expected to experience upward momentum supported by policies and the continuous development of the humanoid robotics industry, suggesting an increase in allocation to the automotive sector [5] - The introduction of Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) in China and the launch of Xiaomi's SU7 Ultra electric vehicle have intensified competition in the smart driving market [4][9] Summary by Sections Weekly Dynamics - Tesla's FSD was officially launched in China on February 25, priced at 64,000 yuan, featuring several advanced driving functions [4][7] - Xiaomi's SU7 Ultra was launched on February 27, with over 6,900 pre-orders within 10 minutes, and a target annual sales goal of 10,000 units [8][9] Market Performance - For the week of February 22-28, 2025, the automotive sector underperformed the broader market, with the automotive index down 2.7% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's decline of 1.7% [3][11] - The automotive sector's PE-TTM (not adjusted) was reported at 32.1, with sub-sectors showing varying historical valuation percentiles [14] Recommendations - The report recommends increasing exposure to the automotive sector, highlighting companies such as BYD, Great Wall Motors, and others in the vehicle segment, as well as specific parts suppliers [5][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability driven by accelerated global expansion, capacity release, and optimization of customer structure, alongside new business development in humanoid robotics [41] - The company’s 2024 performance will be impacted by a decline in sales from major overseas clients, convertible bond expenses, foreign exchange gains, and increased depreciation from capacity investments [4][37] - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing domestic and international demand for its products, particularly in the electric vehicle sector and humanoid robotics [41] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 2,103 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 16.3%. However, a decline of 3.0% is expected in 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 25.0% and 19.2% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 238 million yuan in 2023, decreasing to 165 million yuan in 2024, but recovering to 251 million yuan in 2025 and 312 million yuan in 2026 [3] - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease from 25.2 in 2023 to 19.2 by 2026, indicating an improving valuation as earnings recover [3] Capacity Expansion and Global Layout - The company is accelerating domestic capacity release and overseas expansion, with the Thai factory expected to commence production in Q2 2025, which will enhance profitability due to lower labor costs and pricing advantages [4][37] - The Moroccan factory is identified as a key focus for future overseas capacity, leveraging the country's automotive industry advantages to serve European and North American markets effectively [16][37] Humanoid Robotics Business Development - The company is actively developing core components for humanoid robots, with significant potential for domestic substitution in the planetary gearbox market, driven by supportive national policies and a mature automotive supply chain [39][40] - The global market for planetary gearboxes is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 10% from 2024 to 2029, indicating a robust demand environment for the company's new product lines [39][40] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the company’s profitability is likely to recover due to global expansion, capacity release, and optimization of customer structure, with projected net profits of 165 million yuan, 251 million yuan, and 312 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [41]