Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry [2] Core Views - The impact of US tariff increases on two-wheeled motorcycles is limited, as China's exports to the US account for less than 3% of total exports, with most exports concentrated in the 250cc and below segment, where tariffs are below 10% [4] - The impact of tariff increases on four-wheeled vehicles is expected to be manageable, with historical tariff increases showing limited effects on companies like CFMOTO [5] - The US is the largest market for all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), with North America accounting for over 80% of global ATV sales [72] Trump 1.0 and 2.0 Tariff Overview - During Trump 1.0, the US imposed tariffs on Chinese goods in five batches, affecting motorcycles and ATVs in the first, second, and fourth batches [32] - Trump 2.0 may see faster implementation of tariffs, with potential increases of up to 60% on Chinese goods, though the actual increase may be lower than the campaign rhetoric [3][45] Two-Wheeled Motorcycle Tariffs - China's motorcycle exports to the US are concentrated in the 250cc and below segment, with tariffs below 10%, making the overall impact of tariff increases manageable [52] - The US motorcycle market is dominated by Harley-Davidson and Japanese brands, with Chinese brands having limited presence in the 600cc and above segment [58] Four-Wheeled Vehicle Tariffs - The US is the largest market for ATVs, with North America accounting for 80.5% of global sales in 2023 [72] - CFMOTO has mitigated tariff impacts by shifting some ATV production to Thailand and establishing a factory in Mexico, which began operations in August 2023 [75][88] - Historical tariff increases on ATVs and UTVs have had a limited impact on CFMOTO's profitability, with tariffs accounting for 5.5% of North American revenue in 2023 [76] Market Competition and Capacity Layout - Polaris and Bombardier dominate the North American ATV market, with both companies having significant production capacity in Mexico [79][88] - CFMOTO's new factory in Monterrey, Mexico, has a combined capacity of 100,000 units, which can cover ATV and UZ product exports to the US [88] Historical Tariff Impact on CFMOTO - From 2021 to 2023, CFMOTO's tariff expenses were 190 million, 320 million, and 260 million yuan, respectively, accounting for 8.1%, 6.4%, and 5.5% of North American revenue [76] - CFMOTO's North American gross margin recovered to 43.7% in 2023, close to pre-pandemic levels, indicating limited tariff impact [76]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the securities industry, with key companies such as CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and Hong Kong Exchanges receiving "Overweight" or "Buy" ratings [2] Core Views - The securities industry experienced a dual boost in profitability and stock prices in 2024, with the Shenwan Securities II Index rising 35% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 by 20.9 percentage points [4] - Regulatory policies in 2024 focused on counter-cyclical adjustments, capital market supply-side structural reforms, and improving the quality of listed companies [4] - The report expects a shift in capital allocation towards equities, driving an increase in market trading activity and benefiting brokerage, investment banking, and asset management businesses [4] - The industry is expected to see a wave of mergers and acquisitions, with stock swaps being a more effective way to expand balance sheets compared to cash acquisitions [4] 2024 Review - The securities sector rebounded in 2024, with A-share and H-share markets both recovering from their lows [14] - In the A-share market, the securities sector outperformed the CSI 300 by 20.9 percentage points but underperformed the insurance sector by 1 percentage point [15] - The H-share market saw a significant improvement in both primary and secondary market activity, with Q3 2024 IPO fundraising reaching HKD 42.2 billion, triple the amount raised in H1 2024 [17][19] - Profitability among securities firms diverged, with larger firms showing more stable performance while smaller firms benefited from higher equity positions [25] Policy Environment - Regulatory policies in 2024 emphasized counter-cyclical adjustments, including tightening rules on short-selling and controlling IPO pace to support market stability [30] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) introduced measures to restrict short-selling, including suspending new securities lending and tightening rules on stock lending [31] - The CSRC also encouraged mergers and acquisitions as a way to facilitate capital market exits and improve the quality of listed companies [37] Industry Outlook - The report expects a recovery in brokerage business driven by increased market trading activity, with daily average trading volume reaching a record high of RMB 2 trillion in October 2024 [51] - Investment banking is expected to recover in 2025, with mergers and acquisitions becoming a key driver of growth [59] - Asset management is likely to shift towards passive products, with ETFs continuing to grow but offering limited profit margins [61] - Margin financing and securities lending businesses are expected to benefit from rising market risk appetite, with margin financing balances exceeding RMB 1.7 trillion by October 2024 [64] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on three investment themes: companies with short-term earnings elasticity, firms with valuation expansion potential, and those with long-term profit growth capabilities [4] - Key recommended companies include Orient Securities, Huatai Securities, CITIC Securities, and Hong Kong Exchanges [4]

公 司 研 究 公 司 点 评 报 告 投资要点 ＃summary＃ 事件：1）2024Q1-Q3，公司实现营收 129.84 百万元/同比+13.90%、归母净利润 27.70 百万元/同比+7.16%、扣非归母净利润 25.69 百万元/同比+12.35%；实现毛利率 55.64%/ 同比-3.09pct，归母净利率 21.27%/同比-1.40pct;2)2024 年 Q3,公司实现营收 43.73 百万 元/同比+16.19%、归母净利润 8.84 百万元/同比-5.78%、扣非归母净利润 8.22 百万元/ 同比+17.66%；实现毛利率 55.78%/同比-2.69pct，归母净利率 20.23%/同比-4.71pct。 | --- | --- | |------------------------------|------------| | ＃市场 ma 数 rk 据 etData ＃ | | | 日期 | 2024/11/29 | | 收盘价（元） | 18.15 | | 总股本（百万股） | 161.86 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 82.45 | | 净资产（百万元） | 321.27 ...

Investment Rating - No rating provided for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved steady growth in the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue of 546.83 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.45%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 117.60 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.04% [1] - Gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 38.54%, an increase of 1.21 percentage points year-on-year, and net profit margin attributable to the parent company was 21.51%, an increase of 2.80 percentage points year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 188.38 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.53%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 43.59 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.87% [1] - The company's gross margin in Q3 2024 was 39.47%, an increase of 1.23 percentage points year-on-year, and net profit margin attributable to the parent company was 23.14%, an increase of 3.44 percentage points year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2020-2023 was 435.03 million yuan, 532.14 million yuan, 563.35 million yuan, and 636.37 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.66%, 22.32%, 5.87%, and 12.96% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2020-2023 was 63.82 million yuan, 63.18 million yuan, 83.71 million yuan, and 124.18 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -3.79%, -0.99%, 32.49%, and 48.34% [3] - Gross margin for 2020-2023 was 34%, 30%, 33%, and 37%, respectively [3] - ROE for 2020-2023 was 14.41%, 11.76%, 14.22%, and 18.69%, respectively [3] - Earnings per share for 2020-2023 were 0.84 yuan, 0.78 yuan, 0.87 yuan, and 1.28 yuan, respectively [3] - P/E ratio for 2020-2023 was 13.67, 20.41, 11.03, and 20.49, respectively [3] Operational Highlights - The company's total asset turnover ratio was 0.63, remaining stable compared to the previous year [5] - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was 112.45 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.47% [5] - The company has established itself as a leading manufacturer of needle roller bearings in China, with a wide range of products and specifications [5] - In 2023, the company was approved as a national "Postdoctoral Research Workstation" and received several awards, including "High-Quality Growth Enterprise of the Beijing Stock Exchange" and "High-Quality Governance Enterprise of the Beijing Stock Exchange" [5] - The company has obtained material release approval from Volkswagen (VW50015), passed the high-tech enterprise re-evaluation, and the Jiangsu Province specialized and sophisticated SME re-evaluation [5] - The company has reached an agreement with COMAC for the development of aircraft body roller bearings, further enhancing its comprehensive strength and brand image [5] - As of November 29, 2024, the company's market capitalization was 4.041 billion yuan, with a TTM P/E ratio of 26.12 [5]

司 跟踪报 售 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 新能源行业 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 重点公司 | --- | --- | |----------|-------| | 重点公司 | 评级 | | 中国中铁 | 增持 | | 中国建筑 | 增持 | | 中国交建 | 增持 | | 中国铁建 | 增持 | | | | | 中国电建 | 增持 | | 中国化学 | 增持 | | 中材国际 | 增持 | | 中钢国际 | 增持 | | 鸿路钢构 | 增持 | 来源：兴业证券经济与金融研究院 ＃相关报告 relatedReport＃ 《【兴证建筑】周观点："化债" 再融资专项债发行超万亿，节奏 加快助力建筑央国企基本面改 善——兴证建筑每周观点》 2024-11-24 《【兴证建筑】周观点："化债" 再融资专项债陆续发行，大建筑 央企基本面改善可期》2024-11- 17 《【兴证建筑】周观点：10 万亿 化债方案落地，大建筑央企资产 负债表修复可期》2024-11-10 ＃分析师： emailAuthor＃ 黄杨 huangyang@xyzq.com.cn S0190518070004 李明 liming22@xyzq.com.cn S0190524060003 证券 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a **"Recommend"** rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook on AI-driven smartphone innovation and its potential to drive consumer upgrades [15] Core Viewpoints - **AI as a Key Driver for Smartphone Upgrades**: With hardware innovation reaching a plateau, AI integration in smartphones is expected to be the primary driver for consumer upgrades, especially as 51% of Chinese smartphone users have a replacement cycle of 3-4 years [2][34] - **Two Technical Paths for AI Integration**: The report highlights two main technical approaches for AI integration in smartphones: **Intent Framework** and **Pure Visual Solutions**, each with its own advantages and challenges [41] - **Market Leaders and Their Strategies**: Major players like **Apple**, **Google**, **Huawei**, and **Xiaomi** are adopting different strategies, with Apple focusing on refining its ecosystem, Google leveraging its Gemini model, Huawei combining its PanGu model with intent frameworks, and Xiaomi emphasizing its smart home ecosystem [79][98][151][193] Key Companies and Their AI Strategies Apple - **Focus on Ecosystem Refinement**: Apple is enhancing its AI capabilities within its ecosystem, integrating ChatGPT into Siri and refining its intent framework for future third-party app integration [79][84] - **Apple Intelligence Model**: Apple's AI model, AFM, operates both on-device and in the cloud, with plans to further integrate OpenAI's models to enhance Siri's capabilities [85][91] Google - **Gemini Model Integration**: Google is leveraging its Gemini model to enhance Android's AI capabilities, with a focus on both on-device and cloud-based solutions [98][104] - **Intent Framework Expansion**: Google is promoting its intent framework, App Actions, to integrate with third-party apps and services, aiming for a more seamless user experience [134] Huawei - **PanGu Model and Intent Framework**: Huawei combines its PanGu model with an intent framework to support over 300 services, covering a wide range of scenarios from daily life to office work [151][154] - **Commercialization of Intent Framework**: Huawei is encouraging developers to integrate its intent framework, offering various monetization models for app developers [172] Xiaomi - **Smart Home Ecosystem**: Xiaomi differentiates itself by integrating AI with its smart home ecosystem, offering features like AI-generated dynamic wallpapers and smart home automation [193] - **HyperAI Architecture**: Xiaomi's AI architecture combines on-device and cloud-based models, focusing on memory, perception, and execution across its ecosystem [193] Other Players - **Samsung**: Samsung is closely collaborating with Google for its AI features, while also partnering with Chinese companies like Baidu and ByteDance for localized AI solutions [139][147] - **Honor**: Honor focuses on pure visual solutions, integrating its YOYO assistant with large models to automate tasks like ordering food and canceling subscriptions [177][192] - **Vivo**: Vivo is experimenting with both intent frameworks and pure visual solutions, with a current focus on its intent framework for AI features [199] Industry Trends and Opportunities - **AI-Driven Consumer Upgrades**: The integration of AI in smartphones is expected to drive a new wave of consumer upgrades, with major brands like Samsung and Google already seeing success with their AI-enabled devices [34][35] - **Technical Challenges and Innovations**: The industry is exploring both intent frameworks and pure visual solutions, with each approach offering unique advantages in terms of user experience and technical feasibility [41][60] - **Ecosystem Integration**: Companies are increasingly focusing on integrating AI across their ecosystems, from smartphones to smart homes, to create a seamless user experience [193][199]

＃title＃ 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 食品饮料 行 业 研 究 周专题：白酒关注经销商大会，大众品聚焦产业拐点 ＃investSuggestion＃ 推荐 ＃ investSuggestionC hange＃ （维持） ＃createTime1＃ 年 月 日 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

行 业 点 评 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 银行 SAC：S0190520060001 ＃分析师： relatedReport＃ 陈绍兴 SAC：S0190517070003 王尘 ＃investSuggestion 推荐 ＃(＃ investS uggesti onChan ge＃ 维持） 投资要点 ⚫ 本次自律倡议有利于降低银行负债成本，但同时也需要关注存款流出压力。本次 自律倡议主要针对的是银行与对公客户签订存款服务协议并提前锁定利率的情 形，基于数据可得性，以更大口径的上市银行对公定期存款作为参考，截止至 2024 年上半年末，上市银行对公定期存款规模合计约 49 万亿元，在存款中占比约 25%。 存款服务协议引入"利率调整兜底条款"，并且存量协议需要在一年内完成新协议 或补充协议的签订工作，有利于降低银行负债成本，在一定程度上缓解银行息差 压力；与此同时，近两年存款利率累计下降幅度较大，意味着本次倡议生效后， 相关资金收益率下行压力较大，需要关注存款流出压力。从不同类别银行看，考 虑到保险机构等或更多是与头部银行合作，通过存 ...

重点公司 投资要点 重点公司 评级 ＃summary＃ 本周（20241125-20241129）观点： 万华化学 买入 华鲁恒升 买入 扬农化工 买入 中国巨石 增持 联化科技 增持 华峰化学 增持 金禾实业 买入 新和成 增持 润丰股份 增持 中国石油 增持 中国石化 增持 宝丰能源 买入 恒力石化 增持 卫星化学 增持 荣盛石化 增持 东方盛虹 增持 桐昆股份 增持 新凤鸣 增持 行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 化工 ＃investSuggestion investSuggestion 推荐 ( ＃ ＃ investSuggestion Change＃ 维持 ） 工业硅供给端出现扰动 ＃title＃ ， 继续重点关注化工核心资产及新材料成长 （20241125-20241129） ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 12 月 02 日 ⚫ 工业硅供给端出现扰动，关注后续产品价格走势。据石河子市人民政府官 网，经会商研判，第八师石河子市决定于 11 月 27 日 20:00 启动重污染天气 Ⅱ级（橙色）预警。通告在强制性减排措施-工业企业减排措施中提出，执 行重污染天气工业源 ...