行业周报 | 基础化工 证券研究报告 | 行业评级 | 推荐（维持） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025 年 1 月 26 日 | 相关研究 【兴证化工】化工行业周报———出口压 制预期缓和有望带动轮胎估值修复，继续 关注化工核心资产及新材料成长 （20250113-20250117）-2025.01.19 【兴证化工】化工行业周报———央行宣 布择机降准降息有望带来龙头估值修复 机遇，继续关注化工核心资产及新材料成 长-2025.01.05 分析师：刘梓涵 S0190523070006 liuzihan@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：吉金 S0190522030003 jijin@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：张勋 S0190521100002 zhangxun19@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：陈垒 S0190524070001 chenlei22@xyzq.com.cn 中长期资金入市工作实施方案发布、空调排产 数据强劲，继续关注化工核心资产及新材料成 长 投资要点： ⚫ 六部门联合印发《关于推动中长期资金入市工作的实施方案》、化工部分子行业超跌 修复进行时叠加春节后旺季涨 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's education business continues to grow, with non-core business impacts being limited [3] - The company has a strong cash flow position, with a net operating cash flow of $313.3 million for FY2025Q2 and a total cash reserve of approximately $4.813 billion [7][9] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 25.0% and 20.0% for FY2025 and FY2026, respectively, with Non-GAAP net profit growth of 34.2% and 33.7% for the same periods [11] Financial Performance - For FY2024, the company reported revenue of $4.314 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 43.9%. Projections for FY2025 and FY2026 are $5.392 billion and $6.470 billion, respectively [4] - Non-GAAP net profit for FY2024 was $381 million, with expected growth to $512 million in FY2025 and $684 million in FY2026 [4] - The gross margin is projected to be stable, around 52.0% to 53.0% over the next few years [4] Business Segments - The education business segment showed a net revenue growth of 31.3% in FY2025Q2, with specific growth in overseas exam preparation and consulting services [9] - New educational initiatives are experiencing rapid growth, with a 42.6% increase in enrollment for non-subject tutoring services [9] Cash Flow and Share Buyback - The company has maintained a robust cash flow, with significant cash reserves and ongoing share buyback programs totaling $542.8 million [7][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with FY2025 Q3 net revenue reaching $606 million, a year-on-year increase of 62.4%. The focus on non-academic training has driven this growth, alongside the introduction of new smart hardware products that have received positive market feedback [5][6]. - The company is actively expanding its business, with sales expenses increasing by 85.6% to $226.4 million in FY2025 Q3, reflecting a sales expense ratio of 37.3%. Management expenses have seen a slight increase of 0.8% to $111.5 million, indicating improved operational leverage as revenue scales up [8][11]. - The company maintains a strong cash flow position, with operating cash flow of $378 million in FY2025 Q3 and cash reserves of approximately $3.836 billion, which supports future growth initiatives [11][12]. - The company is expected to continue its high growth trajectory, with projected revenues of $2.284 billion and $3.084 billion for FY2025 and FY2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 53.3% and 35.0% [13]. Financial Summary - For FY2024, the company reported revenues of $1.49 billion, with a projected increase to $2.284 billion in FY2025 and $3.084 billion in FY2026, reflecting growth rates of 46.2%, 53.3%, and 35.0% respectively [4]. - Non-GAAP net profit is projected to grow from $85.3 million in FY2024 to $214.8 million in FY2025 and $312.9 million in FY2026, with respective growth rates of 151.7% and 45.7% [4]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 54%, with Non-GAAP net profit margin improving from 5.7% in FY2024 to 10.1% in FY2026 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 224.27 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.27%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 2.23 billion and 2.26 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.30% to 3.68% [3] - The company anticipates stable growth in external sales and a slight decline in domestic sales for Q4 2024. The expected sales amount to SEB is 7.047 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 19.0% [3] - The resignation of the general manager is considered a normal internal personnel change, with limited substantive impact on the company [3] - The company is positioned as a leading brand in kitchen small appliances, benefiting from national subsidy policies and the expansion of product categories [3] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at 21.304 billion yuan, with projections of 22.427 billion yuan for 2024, 23.896 billion yuan for 2025, and 25.500 billion yuan for 2026, reflecting growth rates of 5.6%, 5.3%, 6.6%, and 6.7% respectively [3][5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is 2.180 billion yuan, with forecasts of 2.254 billion yuan for 2024, 2.409 billion yuan for 2025, and 2.601 billion yuan for 2026, indicating growth rates of 5.4%, 3.4%, 6.9%, and 8.0% respectively [3][5] - The company's gross margin is projected to be 26.3% in 2023, slightly decreasing to 25.7% by 2026 [3][5] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 34.4% in 2023 to 41.0% in 2026 [3][5] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) is estimated to be 2.81 yuan for 2024, 3.01 yuan for 2025, and 3.25 yuan for 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18.8, 17.6, and 16.3 [3][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The company is experiencing significant growth in its high-end motorcycle brand VOGE, with a notable increase in both domestic and international sales. The brand's revenue reached 2.431 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 128% [25][27] - The completion of the asset restructuring and the acquisition by Zongshen New Manufacturing is expected to enhance business synergies, particularly in the motorcycle segment, positioning the company to become a market leader [6][18] - The company has a strong cash position, with over 5 billion yuan in cash as of Q3 2024, which may lead to increased dividend payouts in the future [3][24] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Founded in 1993, the company has established itself as a leading player in the motorcycle industry, focusing on both B2B and B2C markets since launching its high-end brand VOGE in 2018 [6][8] - The company has a diversified product portfolio, including motorcycles, engines, and general machinery, with a strategic focus on improving profit margins since 2021 [8][12] 2. VOGE Brand Development - VOGE has transitioned from OEM to OBM, focusing on high-end motorcycles and improving product design and marketing strategies, leading to a surge in sales [25][33] - The brand's revenue from domestic sales reached 1.51 billion yuan, growing by 159.2%, while international sales amounted to 920 million yuan, up by 90% [25][27] 3. Business Synergies Post-Restructuring - The acquisition by Zongshen New Manufacturing is expected to create synergies in production, marketing, and distribution, enhancing the overall competitiveness of the motorcycle business [6][18] - The combined sales of the company and Zongshen are projected to position them as the top player in the motorcycle market [6][18] 4. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company forecasts total revenue of 13.066 billion yuan for 2023, with a projected growth to 20.533 billion yuan by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [3][4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 583 million yuan in 2023 to 1.706 billion yuan by 2026, indicating strong profitability growth [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the company has made a breakthrough in vanadium extraction technology, positioning itself well in the vanadium energy storage market. The new process allows for the production of vanadium electrolyte directly from shale vanadium, significantly reducing production costs and enhancing competitiveness in the energy storage sector [4][5] - The company's main business is experiencing steady growth, with demand for vanadium extraction adsorbents expected to increase as new industrial production facilities come online. The company is recognized as a leading provider of comprehensive solutions in materials and equipment, with a diverse product range [4][5] - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating, projecting earnings per share (EPS) of 1.64, 2.12, and 2.56 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, indicating strong future growth potential [4][5] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at 2,489 million yuan, with projected revenues of 2,610 million yuan for 2024, 3,255 million yuan for 2025, and 3,924 million yuan for 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 29.6% in 2023 and a forecasted growth of 4.9% in 2024 [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 717 million yuan in 2023 to 834 million yuan in 2024, and further to 1,078 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 33.4% in 2023 [4] - The gross profit margin is projected to be 48.7% in 2023, increasing to 51.6% in 2024, and stabilizing around 50% in the following years [4]

公司点评报告 | 交通运输 证券研究报告 | 报告日期 | 2025 年 01 月 27 日 | | --- | --- | | 公司评级 | 增持（维持） | 基础数据 | 01 月 24 日收盘价（元） | 12.70 | | --- | --- | | 总市值（亿元） | 605.89 | | 总股本（亿股） | 47.71 | 来源：聚源，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 相关研究 【兴证交运】中远海能 2024 年三季报点 评：油轮运价 Q3 淡季承压，长期供需维 持改善-2024.11.04 【兴证交运】中远海能 2024 年中报点 评：油轮处于景气周期，带动扣非归母 净利润实现增长-2024.08.30 【兴证交运】中远海能 2023 年报点评： 扣非归母净利润再创新高，分红水平持 续提升-2024.03.31 分析师：张晓云 S0190514070002 zhangxiaoyun@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：王凯 S0190521090002 wangkai21@xyzq.com.cn 中远海能(600026.SH) ⚫ 事件：中远海能宣告定向增发计划。2025 年 1 月 25 日，中远海能 ...

行业周报 | 房地产 证券研究报告 行业评级 中性（维持） 报告日期 2025 年 01 月 26 日 新房二手房周报：房地产"白名单"融资已达 5.6 万亿元，深化农村土地制度改革 相关研究 投资要点： 风险提示：政策落地不及预期，基本面恢复不及预期，风险化解不及预期。 | 行业评级 | 中性(维持) | | --- | --- | | 报年日期 | 2025 年 01 目 26 日 | 【兴证地产】新房二手房周报：全国新建 商品房销售额延续正增长，下阶段房地产 市场有望继续改善-2025.01.19 【兴证地产】新房二手房周报：抓紧明确 收储作保障房相关政策，财政有充足的政 策空间和工具-2025.01.12 【兴证房地产】新房二手房周报：国常会 研究推进城市更新工作，央行提择机降准 降息-2025.01.05 分析师：靳璐瑜 S0190520080003 jinluyu@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：洪波 S0190523040002 hongbo@xyzq.com.cn 行业周报 | 房地产 一、本周市场重要信息及数据概览 | 表 1、行业资讯 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

相关研究 【兴证非银】2024Q4 公募基金持仓点 评：非银持仓环比回落，聚焦高股息及 政策利好标的-2025.01.23 【兴证非银】证券业基本面梳理之十 九：IPO 收费新规落地，明确投行功能 性定位-2025.01.22 【兴证非银】资管通鉴系列二十五：韩 国篇，以工具化实现更加极致的杠铃策 略两端-2025.01.22 分析师：徐一洲 行业周报 | 非银金融 证券研究报告 | 行业评级 | 推荐（维持） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025 年 01 月 26 日 | S0190521060001 xuyizhou@xyzq.com.cn 研究助理：李思倩 lisiqian@xyzq.com.cn 非银周报（250120-250124）： 政策引导中长期资金入市，看好非银板块配置机会 投资要点： ⚫ 重点公司公告&行业新闻： 重点公告：南华期货审议通过《关于公司发行 H 股股票并在香港联交所上市的议案》。 行业新闻：六部门联合印发《关于推动中长期资金入市工作的实施方案》。 ⚫ 风险提示：利率下行、市场大幅波动、政策落地不达预期、行业竞争加剧。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/1 ...

行业周报 | 环保 证券研究报告 | | | 相关研究 【兴证环保】环保周报：合肥推进空气 治理持续改善行动，上海普陀提出建设 海绵城市目标要求-2025.01.19 【兴证环保】环保周报：西安扩大垃圾 焚烧电厂余热应用，江西推进空气质量 持续改善行动-2025.01.12 【兴证环保】环保周报：六部门印发 《赤泥综合利用行动方案》，到 2030 年 新增赤泥综合利用率达 25%-2025.01.05 分析师：蔡屹 S0190518030002 caiyi@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：李静云 S0190522120001 lijingyun@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：史一粟 S0190523110001 shiyisu@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：朱理显 S0190525010004 zhulixian@xyzq.com.cn 中央推进农村绿色发展及生态改善，上海提出 2026 年底前基本实现固废近零填埋 1 月 20 日至 1 月 24 日，全国碳市场碳排放配额 CEA）挂牌协议成交量 5.58 万 吨，上期 1.13-1.17）成交量为 3.41 万吨，期间增加 2.17 万吨，与上期相比 ...