2024 年 10 月 20 日 分歧低点已现，短期或类似于 2020 年 7 月中旬 本期要点：分歧低点已现，短期或类似于 2020 年 7 月中旬 前期提到历次牛市中一般有上涨三部曲的说法，从情绪上看一般对 应着从一致、分歧到再确认的过程。上周五成交金额超过 2 万亿的大 阳线使得当下应该已经基本确认了这波分歧过程中的指数下限，进 而处于从分歧到再确认的胶着状态中。 考虑到前期第一波上涨过程涨速过快以及成交量过大的现象，市场 整体的筹码结构不够稳定，虽然 10 月 9 日以来经过了一定的震荡调 整，但参考历史大涨过程中的量能规律来看，当前的震荡整理时间或 仍然偏短，正常情形下或不足以马上发动一波创新高的上行趋势。 从量能涨跌等角度看，短期或可将当前走势与 2020 年 7 月 20 日前 后的走势进行类比。在这一过程中，或将有不错的结构性行情出现， 但整体指数或难以创新高。所以除非是逻辑以及基本面特别确定的 结构性机会，否则整体操作上或宜以波段操作，快进快出为主。 板块结构上，在分歧到再确认的过程中，由于市场的做多情绪仍有惯 性，风险偏好仍然较高，所以偏科技和成长方向的板块或仍有优势。 具体而言，我们的四 ...

zhougy@essence.com.cn 行业周报 2024 年 10 月 20 日 有色金属 氧化铝价格维持强势，避险情绪高位黄 金续创新高 工业金属：三季度 GDP 平稳增长，海外二次通胀担忧持续 国内方面，国家统计局数据显示 GDP 三季度增长 4.6%，前三季度， 全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长 5.8%，经济运行稳中有进。国新 办新闻发布会，介绍促进房地产市场平稳健康发展有关情况，会上央 行表示会同有关部门正在抓紧研究，允许政策性银行、商业银行向有 条件的企业发放贷款，收购房企存量土地，央行提供必要的专项再贷 款支持。海外方面，欧洲央行宣布年内第三次降息，将三大关键利率 均下调 25 个基点。美联储理事沃勒表示，近期的就业、通胀数据表 明，经济放缓幅度可能没有预期得那么大，后续降息步伐应比 9 月会 议时更为谨慎，以确保不会发生二次通胀。国内支持政策延续，内外 共振利好工业金属。建议关注：洛阳钼业、金诚信、西部矿业、藏格 矿业、河钢资源、江西铜业、铜陵有色、云南铜业、华锡有色、锡业 股份、兴业银锡、神火股份、云铝股份、中国铝业、天山铝业、创新 新材、南山铝业、索通发展等。 铜：下游消费回升但程度有 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the biopharmaceutical sector [6]. Core Insights - Recently, Heng Rui Medicine resubmitted its Biologics License Application (BLA) for Camrelizumab combined with Rivoceranib for the first-line treatment of unresectable or metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma, which has been officially accepted by the FDA [2][20]. - The domestic innovative drug export is thriving, with several innovative drugs already approved by the FDA, including drugs from companies like BeiGene and Legend Biotech, indicating a promising future for these products in the U.S. market [2][20]. - The report highlights that there are multiple biosimilars currently under FDA review, suggesting ongoing opportunities for growth in overseas markets [2][20]. Weekly New Drug Market Review - From October 14 to October 18, 2024, the top five companies in the new drug sector by stock performance were: - Lai Kai Medicine (42.26%) - Bei Hai Kang Cheng (25.00%) - Zai Ding Medicine (14.38%) - Ya Sheng Medicine (13.30%) - He Yu Biology (12.87%) - Conversely, the top five companies with the largest declines were: - WuXi AppTec (-16.06%) - Keji Pharmaceutical (-15.58%) - Sheng Nuo Medicine (-14.32%) - Yi Ming Ang Ke (-13.70%) - Teng Sheng Bo Medicine (-10.83%) [1][16]. New Drug Approval & Acceptance Status - This week, five new drugs or new indications were approved for market launch, 49 new drugs received IND approval, 56 new INDs were accepted, and 11 new NDAs were accepted [22][30]. - Notable approvals include: - Heng Rui Medicine's Camrelizumab combined with Rivoceranib for liver cancer received FDA acceptance [3][30]. - Rongchang Biopharmaceutical's new indication for Vidi Xi Tuo monoclonal antibody received acceptance from NMPA [3][30]. - Microchip Biopharmaceutical announced positive results for its Phase II clinical study of sodium siglitazone for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease [3][30]. Industry Performance - The biopharmaceutical sector has shown a relative return of 0.5% over the past month, with an absolute return of 24.2% [5]. - The sector has experienced a decline of 27% from October 2023 to February 2024, indicating volatility in the market [5]. Key Focus Areas in Domestic New Drug Industry - The report emphasizes ongoing developments in the domestic new drug industry, with several companies making significant progress in clinical trials and product approvals, including: - Heng Rui Medicine's multiple new cancer drugs receiving clinical trial approvals [30]. - Rongchang Biopharmaceutical's new indication for its monoclonal antibody [30]. - Microchip Biopharmaceutical's promising clinical results for its new drug [30].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the semiconductor industry is "Outperform the Market - A" [3] Core Insights - TSMC reported strong Q3 2024 earnings with revenue of NT$759.69 billion, a 39% year-on-year increase, and net profit of NT$325.26 billion, up 54.2% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [1] - The global wafer foundry market is expected to grow by 20% in 2025, driven primarily by high-performance computing (HPC) applications, with TSMC leading the growth [3][6] - TSMC's global expansion efforts are showing success, with significant progress in overseas factories in the US, Japan, and Germany [6] Summary by Sections TSMC Performance - TSMC's Q3 2024 revenue was NT$759.69 billion, with a net profit of NT$325.26 billion, both surpassing market forecasts [1] - HPC revenue accounted for 51% of TSMC's total revenue, while smartphone revenue increased to 34% [1] Industry Growth Projections - The global wafer foundry market is projected to grow by 20% in 2025, with TSMC expected to outperform other foundries, which are projected to grow by nearly 12% [3] - The demand for AI applications is driving the need for high-performance computing chips, which is the main growth driver for the advanced process and overall foundry industry [3][6] Market Trends - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a significant increase in capital expenditure, with TSMC's 2nm process expected to lead to record capital spending [3] - The domestic semiconductor market in China is expected to see a notable increase in mature process capacity by 2027, surpassing Taiwan [3] Investment Recommendations - Suggested stocks for investment include companies in information security, chip design, semiconductor equipment, and the AI industry chain [8]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperforming the Market - A" [2] Core Viewpoints - The upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival is expected to boost domestic demand for home appliances, with e-commerce platforms starting their promotions earlier than last year [2] - Increased price discounts and the combination of government subsidies for replacing old appliances are anticipated to enhance consumer purchasing power [2] Summary by Sections Double Eleven Activities - E-commerce platforms like JD.com and Tmall have initiated their Double Eleven activities earlier this year, with JD.com starting on October 14 and Tmall on the same date [3][6] - JD.com has increased its discount offerings, including a new promotion of 20 yuan off for every 200 yuan spent, compared to last year's 50 yuan off for every 299 yuan spent [3] Company Performance - Gree Electric Appliances is projected to have a revenue growth of 4% in 2024, while Midea Group is expected to grow by 9% [24] - Haier Smart Home anticipates a revenue increase of 6%, and Hisense Visual is expected to grow by 8% [24] - In the U.S. market, iRobot is projected to see a revenue decline of 13%, while Whirlpool expects a decrease of 14% [25] - In the European market, Electrolux is expected to have a revenue decline of 1%, while Cyber is projected to grow by 3% [26] Market Trends - The report highlights a significant increase in home appliance sales during the Double Eleven period, driven by early promotions and enhanced discounts [2] - The overall sentiment in the home appliance industry remains positive, with expectations of growth in both domestic and international markets [2][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company [2][3] Core Views - The company's share buyback plan is expected to enhance shareholder returns and increase investment value by reducing total share capital and improving earnings per share [1] - Domestic demand is anticipated to recover due to government policies, while the company is expected to maintain strong export growth, particularly in emerging markets [1] - The company is projected to achieve revenue growth of 6.8%, 16.5%, and 17.3% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profit growth of 14.2%, 35.7%, and 23.3% during the same period [2] Financial Projections - Revenue estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 502.7 billion, 585.6 billion, and 687 billion, respectively [2][9] - Net profit estimates for the same years are 40 billion, 54.3 billion, and 67 billion, respectively [2][9] - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 15.5X, 11.4X, and 9.2X, respectively [2] Market Performance - The company's market capitalization is approximately 58.32 billion, with a circulating market value of about 47.51 billion [3] - The stock price as of October 17, 2024, is 6.72 yuan, with a 12-month price range of 5.75 to 9.35 yuan [3] Business Dynamics - The company is expected to benefit from a solid market share in traditional businesses and growth from emerging sectors such as earthmoving, aerial, agricultural, and mining machinery [2] - The "end-to-end" direct sales model is aiding the company in expanding its international market presence [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 190.6 CNY per share, maintaining the rating [4][5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 11.45 billion CNY for Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.98%, and a net profit of 1.08 billion CNY, up 34.87% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company continues to experience high growth driven by four core growth logic factors: improvement in product structure for all-terrain vehicles, a new product cycle for mid-to-large displacement motorcycles, accelerated overseas expansion of mid-to-large displacement motorcycles, and gradual development of the electric two-wheeler business [5][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.92 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 36.11%, while the gross margin was 31.57%, a decrease of 2.10 percentage points year-on-year [4][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was 373 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 48.95% [4][3]. Growth Drivers - The company has become the market leader in the European ATV sector and is expanding into higher-value UTV and SSV products, with four new models launched in August 2024 [5][4]. - The domestic market for mid-to-large displacement motorcycles is entering a new product cycle, with several potential blockbuster models expected to enhance market share [5][4]. - The company has seen significant growth in overseas sales, with 85,800 units exported in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 45.07% [5][4]. - The electric two-wheeler segment is also gaining traction, with new high-end models launched and a significant increase in domestic and international channel expansion [5][4]. Valuation Metrics - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.43 billion CNY, 1.80 billion CNY, and 2.41 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15.7, 12.5, and 9.3 [7][8]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 15.39 billion CNY in 2024 to 23.17 billion CNY in 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [7][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 3.37 CNY over the next six months [6][11]. Core Viewpoints - The acquisition of Chongqing New Mile marks the first step in the injection of quality assets by the controlling shareholder, which is expected to enhance the company's performance and expand its medical service network in the Southwest region [4][10]. - The acquisition price of 320 million CNY is considered reasonable, with the target company generating a revenue of 315 million CNY in 2023 and a projected revenue growth of double digits over the next five years [4][5]. - The company aims to build a regional medical group in the Chongqing area with a target revenue of 800-1,000 million CNY within three years [5][10]. Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - The company announced the acquisition of 100% equity in Chongqing New Mile Medical Management Co., Ltd. for 320 million CNY, which includes four hospitals with a total of over 1,000 beds [3][4]. - The revenue for Chongqing New Mile in the first seven months of 2024 was 204 million CNY, with net profits of 7.43 million CNY excluding supply chain and 9.99 million CNY including supply chain [4]. Financial Projections - The projected revenues for the company from 2024 to 2026 are 4.01 billion CNY, 4.40 billion CNY, and 4.83 billion CNY, respectively, with net profits expected to be 1.22 billion CNY, 2.24 billion CNY, and 3.00 billion CNY [11][12]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in profitability due to the injection of quality medical assets from the controlling shareholder [11]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is positioned to benefit from improved market conditions and policies that favor mergers and acquisitions, which could lead to accelerated asset injections from the controlling shareholder [10][11]. - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 8.79 billion CNY and a circulating market capitalization of about 8.48 billion CNY [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [4][20]. Core Insights - The report indicates a significant improvement in VC&PE financing for innovative drugs in the US market as of September 2024, serving as a leading indicator for the CXO industry's economic conditions [1][9]. - In the first half of 2024, global VC&PE financing for innovative drugs showed improvement, particularly in the US, with a year-on-year increase of 15.51%, contrasting with a global decline of 2.35% [2][10]. - The third quarter of 2024 saw a slight quarter-on-quarter improvement in global VC&PE financing for innovative drugs, with a 3.87% increase compared to the second quarter [3][13]. - In September 2024, the US market experienced a notable increase in VC&PE financing for innovative drugs, with a year-on-year growth of 18.81%, while global financing saw a slight decline of 0.22% [4][16]. Summary by Sections Annual Observation - In the first half of 2024, the US market's VC&PE financing for innovative drugs improved significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 15.51%, marking a 54.88 percentage point improvement compared to the previous year [2][10]. Quarterly Observation - The third quarter of 2024 showed a year-on-year decline in VC&PE financing for innovative drugs in the global market by 2.68%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.87% was noted [3][13]. Monthly Observation - In September 2024, the US market's VC&PE financing for innovative drugs improved significantly with an 18.81% year-on-year increase, while the global market experienced a slight decline of 0.22% [4][16].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market - A" [5] Core Viewpoints - The national negotiation for medical insurance has entered a normalization phase, and long-term growth for innovative drugs is expected. The 2024 medical insurance negotiation is anticipated to start soon, with multiple domestic innovative drugs participating [1][9] - Approximately 41 domestic innovative drugs are expected to participate in the new drug negotiations this year, including 28 newly approved drugs from July 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024, and 13 drugs approved before July 1, 2023 [1][20] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of 2024 Domestic Innovative Drug Medical Insurance Negotiation - The negotiation mechanism for drugs in China has gradually entered a normalization phase since 2017, maintaining an annual frequency. The 2024 medical insurance drug negotiation is expected to enter the negotiation/bidding phase soon [9] 1.1. Overall Workflow - The 2024 national drug directory adjustment process consists of five stages: preparation, application, expert review, negotiation/bidding phase, and announcement of results [10] 1.2. Renewal Rule Changes - The renewal rules for negotiated drugs have entered a normalization phase, with no significant changes compared to 2023. The rules have been refined to include provisions for the management of payment standards for drugs nearing the expiration of their first bidding cycle [12] 1.3. Initial Negotiation Price Reduction - Historically, drugs entering the medical insurance directory through negotiation have required an average price reduction of 50-60%. The overall average reduction for this year's negotiation is expected to be similar to previous years [18] 1.4. Drug Negotiation Situation - Approximately 41 domestic innovative drugs are undergoing new drug negotiations, with 28 newly approved drugs and 13 previously approved drugs participating [20] 2. Key Drug Negotiation Situations 2.1. PD-1/PD-L1 Drugs - About 10 PD-1/PD-L1 drugs have passed the formal review, while 10 others will not participate in the negotiation [26] 2.2. Third-Generation EGFR TKI - Beida Pharmaceutical's Beifu Tini is expected to negotiate for first-line treatment of NSCLC [34][36] 2.3. HER2 ADC and Small Molecules - AstraZeneca's Deruxtecan is expected to participate in the negotiation for HER2-positive breast cancer treatment [42][43] 2.4. PCSK9 Drugs - Innovent Biologics' Tolecizumab is expected to participate in the negotiation for primary hypercholesterolemia [47][48] 2.5. EGFR Exon20ins NSCLC Drugs - Dize Pharmaceutical's Shuwotini is expected to participate in the negotiation for NSCLC with EGFR exon20 insertion mutations [53][54] 2.6. Multiple Myeloma Drugs - Haisco's Epinephrine is expected to participate in the negotiation for multiple myeloma treatment [59][60] 2.7. Sleep Medications - Jingxin Pharmaceutical's Dazisni is expected to participate in the negotiation for insomnia treatment [65][66] 2.8. CAR-T - Four CAR-T drugs have passed the formal review and are expected to participate in the negotiation [70][71] 3. Key Company Negotiation Situations 3.1. Heng Rui Pharmaceutical - Heng Rui has several products, including Taji Liding and Oterconazole, participating in new drug negotiations [72][73] 3.2. Bei Da Pharmaceutical - Bei Da's Beifu Tini is expected to negotiate for first-line treatment of NSCLC [75] 3.3. Di Zhe Pharmaceutical - Di Zhe's Shuwotini and Golixitin are expected to participate in new drug negotiations [77] 3.4. Kang Fang Biologics - Kang Fang's Cardunilumab and Yivocizumab are expected to participate in new drug negotiations [78] 3.5. China National Pharmaceutical - China National Pharmaceutical has multiple products, including Yifeng Ake and An Naike, expected to participate in new drug negotiations [79] 3.6. Haisco - Haisco's Koglitin and Cligablin are expected to participate in new drug negotiations [81] 3.7. Bei Ji Shen Zhou - Bei Ji Shen Zhou's Zebutinib and Trelizumab are expected to participate in new indication negotiations [82] 3.8. Innovent Biologics - Innovent's Tolecizumab and Sepitinib are expected to participate in new drug negotiations [85] 3.9. Hansoh Pharmaceutical - Hansoh's Amatinib is expected to undergo renewal negotiations [86] 3.10. Other A-Share Innovative Drugs - Various other A-share innovative drugs are expected to participate in new drug negotiations [88] 3.11. Other H-Share Innovative Drugs - Various other H-share innovative drugs are expected to participate in new drug negotiations [90] 4. Recommended Focus Stocks - Recommended stocks include A-share companies such as Bei Da Pharmaceutical, Heng Rui Pharmaceutical, Di Zhe Pharmaceutical, and others, as well as H-share companies like Kang Fang Biologics and others [92]