Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company, with a target price of 15.00 CNY for the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company is gradually becoming an international innovative pharmaceutical enterprise, with its innovative pipeline entering a harvest period, focusing on large molecules, small molecules, and traditional Chinese medicine [10][30]. - The company has made significant progress in its research and development pipeline, particularly with its product Yilishu, which has been approved for sale in 34 countries, including China, the US, and the EU [30][46]. - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 609 million CNY in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 57.8% [7][72]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company focuses on research and innovation in the pharmaceutical health sector, with a diverse product pipeline in areas such as hematological oncology, inflammation, metabolism, dermatology, gynecology, and pediatrics [10]. - The controlling shareholder, Cheng Xianfeng, holds 42.85% of the company's shares [13]. 2. Large Molecule Innovative Drugs - The company has made progress in its research pipeline, with Yilishu being a new generation G-CSF long-acting preparation that has been approved in multiple countries [30][33]. - The domestic market is expected to see rapid sales growth for Yilishu due to a commercial cooperation agreement with Zhengda Tianqing [50]. - The global G-CSF drug market is projected to grow steadily, with the company having established sales in 34 countries [51][54]. 3. Small Molecule Drugs - The company has differentiated its product offerings in the small molecule drug sector, focusing on unique and specialized products [57]. - Sales of small molecule drugs have shown significant growth, with revenue increasing from 453 million CNY in 2021 to 887 million CNY in 2023 [59]. 4. Traditional Chinese Medicine - The company has a wide range of traditional Chinese medicine products, with several exclusive varieties that contribute to steady growth in this segment [60][61]. - Revenue from traditional Chinese medicine increased from 643 million CNY in 2021 to 934 million CNY in 2023 [68]. 5. Raw Material Business - The company maintains a leading position in the vitamin B5 (calcium pantothenate) market, with stable demand expected to drive growth [65]. - The price of calcium pantothenate is currently at a historical low, with limited downside risk [69]. 6. Profit Forecast and Valuation Analysis - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 60.42 billion CNY, 70.30 billion CNY, and 81.29 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 6.09 billion CNY, 7.40 billion CNY, and 8.88 billion CNY [72].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company, with a target price of 15.00 CNY for the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning into an international innovative pharmaceutical enterprise, with its innovative pipeline gradually entering a harvest period [10]. - The company has made significant progress in its large molecule innovative drugs, particularly with the product Yilishu, which has received approval for sale in 34 countries [30][54]. - The small molecule drug segment focuses on differentiation through a strategy of "small, sharp, and special," with a stable growth in sales [59]. - The traditional Chinese medicine segment has a wide range of products, including several exclusive varieties, contributing to steady growth [62]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company focuses on research and innovation in the pharmaceutical health sector, with a diverse product pipeline in various therapeutic areas [10]. - The controlling shareholder holds 42.85% of the company's shares, indicating strong ownership [13]. 2. Large Molecule Innovative Drugs - The company has made advancements in its research pipeline, with Yilishu being a key product that has received approvals in multiple countries [30]. - The domestic market strategy includes a commercial partnership with Zhengda Tianqing to enhance sales [51]. - The global market for G-CSF drugs is expected to grow, with the company positioned to benefit from this trend [52]. 3. Small Molecule Drugs - The company has established a differentiated product layout in the small molecule drug sector, focusing on key products that have shown stable sales growth [59]. 4. Traditional Chinese Medicine - The company has a broad layout in traditional Chinese medicine, with several exclusive products contributing to its revenue growth [62]. 5. Raw Material Business - The company maintains a leading position in the vitamin B5 market, with stable demand expected to drive growth [67]. 6. Profit Forecast and Valuation Analysis - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 60.42 billion CNY, 70.30 billion CNY, and 81.29 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 6.09 billion CNY, 7.40 billion CNY, and 8.88 billion CNY [74].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) is "Buy-A" with a 12-month target price of 73.23 HKD [3][7]. Core Insights - Xiaomi reported a record high performance in Q1 2025, achieving revenue of 111.29 billion, a year-on-year increase of 47.4%, and an adjusted profit of 10.68 billion, up 64.5% [1]. - The company has improved operational efficiency in its mobile and AIoT segments, with a mobile and AIoT gross margin of 22.8%, up 2.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The automotive segment is showing signs of growth, with a delivery volume of 76,000 units and an average selling price (ASP) of 238,000, contributing significantly to revenue [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Xiaomi's revenue reached 1112.93 billion, a 47.4% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted profit of 106.75 billion, reflecting a 64.5% growth [1]. - The mobile segment's revenue was 506.12 billion, up 8.9%, with a notable ASP increase of 5.8% to 1210.6 [2]. - IoT revenue was 323.4 billion, a 58.7% increase, with a gross margin of 25.2%, up 4.7 percentage points [2]. Market Position - Xiaomi regained the top market share in mainland China with a 40% increase in mobile shipments, reaching 13.3 million units [2]. - The company is expanding its high-end product strategy, which has positively impacted internet service revenue, growing 12.8% to 9.1 billion [2]. Automotive Segment - The automotive division's revenue reached 185.8 billion, with a gross margin of 23.2%, indicating ongoing scale effects [3]. - The Yu7 model is expected to be a strong performer, with attention on its sales and production capacity in the upcoming months [3]. Long-term Strategy - Xiaomi's focus on ecosystem investments, AI capabilities, and operational efficiency is expected to drive future growth and valuation [6][7]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 501.5 billion, 634.4 billion, and 733.2 billion respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.4% for the mobile and AIoT segments [7][9].

Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth - In April, general public budget revenue increased by 1.9% year-on-year, with tax revenue rising by 4.1% and non-tax revenue declining by 4.3%[4] - Government fund revenue rose by 7.7% year-on-year, with land transfer income increasing by 3.9%[5] - Government fund expenditure surged by 44.3% year-on-year, reflecting strong fiscal support for infrastructure projects[5] Group 2: Export Performance and Trade Impact - April export growth showed a slight decline, with large enterprises experiencing a significant drop in export delivery value growth from 7.7% in March to 0.9% in April[9] - The disparity in export performance suggests that larger enterprises are more adversely affected by tariffs, particularly in upstream industries[11] - The overall external demand remains strong, but structural shifts in export strategies are evident, with a move from "grabbing exports" to "grabbing trans-shipments"[9] Group 3: Market Trends and Interest Rates - The equity market has been volatile, with sectors like pharmaceuticals and automobiles performing well, while TMT sectors lagged[12] - Recent trends indicate a slight recovery in interbank funding rates, with short-term rates fluctuating at low levels and long-term rates rising slightly[16] - U.S. and Japanese government bond yields have risen significantly due to concerns over fiscal sustainability and inflation expectations[22] Group 4: Geopolitical and Policy Risks - Geopolitical risks and unexpected policy changes remain key concerns for market stability[3] - The potential for U.S. tariff adjustments in mid-2025 could influence market dynamics and investor sentiment[13] - The ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations may lead to cautious inventory accumulation among enterprises[11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market - B" [6] Core Viewpoints - Infrastructure investment growth is steady, with significant performance in water conservancy investments, indicating a positive outlook for overall infrastructure investment in 2025 [3][18] - The government is actively promoting major projects under the "14th Five-Year Plan," with 99% of the planning targets achieved for over 5000 specific projects [1][16] - The issuance of local special bonds and other financing measures is accelerating, which is expected to enhance the implementation speed of ongoing projects and improve the financial indicators of construction companies [3][11] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Dynamics - In the first four months of 2025, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 14.70 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, with narrow and broad infrastructure investments growing by 5.80% and 10.85% respectively [2][16] - Water conservancy management investment growth leads all sectors at 30.7%, while public facilities management and railway transportation investments also show positive growth [2][17] Market Performance - The construction industry experienced a decline of 0.97% from May 19 to May 23, underperforming compared to major indices [19] - The top-performing sector within construction was landscaping, which increased by 4.14% during the same period [19] Company Announcements - Major contracts were announced, including a 35 billion yuan EPC contract by Dongzhu Ecology and a 4.51 billion yuan project by Xinjiang Jiaojian [31] Key Focus Stocks - Recommended stocks include major construction state-owned enterprises such as China State Construction, China Communications Construction, China Railway, and China Railway Construction, which are currently undervalued [3][11][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is witnessing significant advancements with Xiaomi's launch of its first self-developed 3nm flagship SoC, "Xuanjie O1," which integrates 19 billion transistors and achieves high performance metrics [18] - The NAND Flash market is experiencing a rebound in prices due to production cuts by major manufacturers, which is expected to improve revenue in the second quarter [9] - The overall electronic industry has shown a mixed performance, with a relative decline in the short term but a positive outlook for the long term [6][8] Summary by Sections Semiconductor Industry - Xiaomi's "Xuanjie O1" is built on TSMC's 3nm process, featuring a 10-core CPU and a 16-core GPU, achieving AnTuTu scores exceeding 3 million, positioning it among the top performers in the industry [18] - The company has invested over 13.5 billion yuan in chip development since 2021, with plans for further investments to enhance its technological capabilities [18] NAND Flash Market - Major NAND manufacturers have reduced production by 10% to 15%, leading to a price rebound in Q2, with expectations of a 3% to 8% increase in contract prices [9] - The market dynamics are influenced by geopolitical factors, prompting companies to stock up on inventory [9] Electronic Industry Performance - The electronic sector's overall performance has been volatile, with a 2.17% decline in the electronic index during the week of May 19-23, 2025 [34] - The sector's PE ratio stands at 48.80, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical averages [35][37] - Despite short-term challenges, the long-term outlook remains optimistic, particularly for companies with strong domestic replacement capabilities and those involved in AI and consumer electronics [11]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.57%, while the CSI 300 dropped by 0.18%, and the Hang Seng Index increased by 1.10%[1] - The average daily trading volume for the entire A-share market was 1,173.3 billion CNY, showing a decrease compared to the previous week[1] Market Trends - The market has entered a low-volatility environment, with the 60-day volatility of the CSI 300 index dropping below 0.6%, indicating a potential for rapid volatility expansion[1] - Historical data suggests that a volatility threshold of 0.5% often precedes significant market movements, although there is no clear risk of a "double bottom" at this time[1] Economic Outlook - There is an optimistic outlook for the Chinese economy, driven by various positive developments in technology and consumption sectors, suggesting a transition from old to new economic drivers[2] - The new consumption index in A-shares has risen by 18.74% this year, while the Hong Kong consumption index has increased by 24.31%[4] Sector Performance - The banking sector and micro-cap stocks have reached new highs, supported by quantitative forces, while the pricing is more influenced by market sentiment than by fundamental performance[3] - The technology sector, particularly the DeepSeek concept and humanoid robots, has seen significant gains of 32.95% and 24.49% respectively this year, contrasting with a decline of 1.56% in traditional economic indices[4] Investment Strategy - A barbell strategy is recommended, maintaining high-value assets as a core investment, especially in light of potential impacts from tariffs and external economic pressures[4] - The current market environment suggests a focus on long-term trends rather than short-term industry rotations, with an emphasis on sectors demonstrating clear growth potential[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform-A" for the biopharmaceutical sector [7] Core Insights - The report highlights that several newly included innovative drugs in the medical insurance directory are rapidly entering hospitals, with significant growth in hospital admissions for specific drugs compared to the end of December 2024 [2][20] - The report notes that the new drug market has seen substantial fluctuations, with the top five gainers and losers in the new drug sector during the week of May 19 to May 23, 2025 [1][16] Summary by Sections New Drug Market Review - From May 19 to May 23, 2025, the top five companies in the new drug sector by stock price increase were: - Sanofi (99.96%) - Oconovision Biotech-B (43.66%) - Yiming Oncology-B (38.40%) - Chuangsheng Group-B (36.45%) - Canaan Jiangrui Pharmaceutical-B (34.03%) - The top five companies by stock price decrease were: - Junsheng Tai Pharmaceutical-B (-14.33%) - Mengke Pharmaceutical (-3.34%) - Dize Pharmaceutical (-2.88%) - Yunding Xinyao (-2.70%) - Dongyao Pharmaceutical-B (-2.66%) [1][16] Key Industry Analysis - The National Medical Insurance Administration updated the hospital admission data for innovative drugs included in the medical insurance directory as of the end of March 2025, showing rapid hospital entry for several newly included domestic innovative drugs [2][20] - Notable drugs with fast growth in hospital admissions include: - Yunding Xinyao's Budesonide Enteric-Coated Capsules - Zaiqian Pharmaceutical's Recombinant Human Thrombin - Innovent Biologics' Toripalimab - Haisco's Alogliptin and Clobazam - Xinlitai's Aliskiren Amlodipine and Benzyl Glimepiride - Hengrui Medicine's Otilonium Bromide - China National Pharmaceutical's Anakinra and Ivosidenib [2][20][21] New Drug Approval and Acceptance - This week, 10 new drugs or new indications received approval for market entry, including: - Pyrocyclic Tablets by Xuan Bamboo Biotechnology - Anlotinib Hydrochloride Capsules by Zhengda Tianqing - Injection of Camrelizumab by Shengdiya Biopharmaceutical - Injection of Bemarituzumab by Zhengda Tianqing - Injection of Vilazodone by Beihai Kangcheng - Injection of Acetylcysteine by Jingding Pharmaceutical - Ribociclib Succinate Tablets by Novartis - Asunaprevir Tablets by Novartis - Injection of Tenecteplase by Boehringer Ingelheim - Injection of Tanshinone by Novartis [3][24] Clinical Application Approval and Acceptance - This week, 10 new drug clinical applications were approved, and 43 new drug clinical applications were accepted [4][29]

2025 年 05 月 25 日 震荡偏弱，但下行风险或有限 金融工程定期报告 证券研究报告 杨勇 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1450518010002 yangyong1@essence.com.cn 相关报告 | 或仅是整理，蓄势以待机 | 2025-05-18 | | --- | --- | | 结构重于仓位，继续关注先 | 2025-05-11 | | 进制造 | | | 红五月可期，还看科技与先 | 2025-05-05 | | 进制造 | | | 美元阶段见底，科技有望崛 | 2025-04-27 | | 起 | | | 低位震荡，下行风险或有限 | 2025-04-20 | 本期要点：震荡偏弱，但下行风险或有限 上周五下午市场出现明显回落，显示市场在近期的震荡巩固过程中走 势偏弱。从周期分析模型的视角看，本轮自 4 月初以来的反弹或无已 经完全结束的充分证据；从模型当下给出的本轮调整的性质看，或有 望最多回到 4 月底 5 月初的震荡区间，随后再重新开始一波上行走 势，只有在那波上行趋势再次衰竭的时候才能判断本轮反弹是否真正 结束了。 从缠论的视角看，自去年四季度以来，大盘整体处于一个大的 ...

首先，我们对过去两三年在科技投研领域的心路历程进行回顾。2023 年初，我们 提出 "只要经济弱复苏，TMT 就不会输" 的产业主题投资观点，并反复强调应围 绕 AI 这一未来 3 - 5 年的科技投资主线展开布局。到了去年第四季度，我们坚 定推荐以 TMT 和科创 50 指数为核心的 AI 科技和科创领域，并进一步提出 "半 导体是下一个汽车" 的观点。我们坚信，在 AI+ 国产 + 业绩释放的过程中，半 导体领域有望与过去的汽车产业相媲美，展现出巨大的发展潜力。当然，我们并非 单纯的科技多头，而是通过灵活的策略调整来应对市场变化。2025 年 2 月下旬， 我们发布《98 度的科技》和《准备好高切低》两篇报告，准确预判三月份市场可 能出现的高切低现象，事实上这一判断也得到了精准验证。 我们将科技产业投资划分为理论基础及四阶段投资、龙头命运和 N 字型定价规律 三个部分。特别是我们提出的 "科技投资的胜负手是 C 点" 这一认知，其并非 仅基于简单的统计分析，还结合了过去十余年对移动互联网、新能源汽车以及 2023 年 AI 领域表现优异投资者的投资行为与配置思路的深入分析。例如本轮 AI 定价时期的中际旭 ...