Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes the importance of "rebalancing" in the investment strategy for 2026, highlighting the dual focus on AI technology, overseas equipment, and global pricing resources as the main consensus among institutional investors [1][2] - The report indicates that the share of technology and overseas sectors in A-share profits (excluding finance) is approaching 40% by Q4 2025, suggesting a significant shift in the profit structure towards high-end technology and manufacturing, which is expected to reshape the A-share profit landscape and drive a new upward cycle in 2026-2027 [1][2] - The report outlines a transition from "new triumphing over old" in 2025 to "new and old dancing together" in 2026, where "new" refers to AI technology moving downstream and "old" refers to traditional industries stabilizing and growing through overseas business [2][3] Group 2 - The report highlights that global pricing resources, particularly gold, are experiencing a shift in asset allocation due to narratives of de-globalization and financialization, with a notable increase in trading sentiment driven by interest rate cuts and a weak dollar [2][3] - It is noted that the pricing of resource commodities is becoming increasingly differentiated, with financial attributes of resource pricing outperforming those based on commodity attributes [2][3] - The report stresses the need to be cautious of the assumption that the dollar will remain weak throughout 2026, as there may be a return to commodity attributes and a decline in financial attributes, making supply-demand fundamentals more critical for resource price increases [3] Group 3 - Observations from Q4 2025 indicate a significant increase in institutional holdings in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, communications, basic chemicals, non-bank financials, and machinery, while reductions were noted in pharmaceuticals, computing, electronics, media, and power equipment [9][10] - The report identifies a divergence in institutional investment in the AI industry chain, with a decrease in holdings in sectors with weaker earnings visibility, while sectors with strong earnings visibility, such as optical modules, saw increases [10][11] - The report also notes that institutional investors are increasingly favoring resource commodities that benefit from price increases, particularly in the non-ferrous and chemical sectors, indicating a strategic shift towards these areas [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [5] Core Insights - The future industry is expected to become a new economic growth point, with significant potential in quantum technology, embodied intelligence, and 6G technology. The report emphasizes the need for strategic planning and government support due to the long cultivation cycle and high market risks associated with future industries [1][11] - Quantum technology is highlighted as the leading sector within future industries, with four key areas expected to drive disruptive innovation: quantum computing, quantum communication, quantum measurement, and post-quantum cryptography [2][12] - Embodied intelligence is identified as a crucial application of artificial intelligence, facilitating the development of humanoid robots and advancing the robotics industry [2][12] - The second phase of 6G technology trials has been initiated in China, with over 300 key technologies developed, focusing on integrating satellite internet as a foundational infrastructure for 6G [3][13] Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform the Market - A" rating, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the CSI 300 Index by 10% or more over the next six months [5][24] Future Industry Overview - The future industry encompasses a wide range of sectors, including information technology, bio-manufacturing, energy, and high-end equipment manufacturing, with substantial investment value due to its broad development space [1][11] Quantum Technology - Quantum computing is poised to solve complex problems beyond the capabilities of traditional computers, with potential breakthroughs in drug discovery and materials science. Quantum communication aims to enhance secure information transmission, while quantum measurement will improve precision in various fields [2][12] Embodied Intelligence - Embodied intelligence enhances AI's ability to interact with environments, leading to measurable and verifiable applications. Humanoid robots are expected to be key carriers of these algorithms, paving the way for general artificial intelligence [2][12] 6G Technology - The report notes that the first phase of 6G technology trials has been completed, with the second phase now underway, focusing on creating an integrated network that includes satellite internet as a critical infrastructure component [3][13]

- The report mentions a **cycle analysis model**, which is used to track market trends and identify potential stabilization signals. The model suggests that the market may have reached a small-scale stabilization point, indicating a shift into a short-term oscillation phase with a clearer oscillation range[2][7] - A **trend model** is also referenced, which remains in a bullish zone on a larger scale. This model supports the inference that the market's short-term movements are constrained within a two-way oscillation pattern[2][7] - The **industry rotation model** is highlighted, showing dispersed signals across various sectors. It identifies opportunities in low-valuation sectors like banking, adjusted sectors like media, and sectors that have been consolidating, such as communication and growth-oriented industries. This model suggests a balanced allocation strategy for the current market environment[7] - The **four-wheel drive industry model** is presented, which provides specific signals for sector opportunities. For example, it identifies potential opportunities in sectors like photovoltaic leaders, communication, and banking, as well as trading opportunities in growth-oriented sectors and media. The model uses signal types such as "potential opportunity" and "trading opportunity" to guide sector allocation[13]

2026 年 02 月 01 日 北交所定期报告 本周北证指数震荡回调，我国将布局 更多"太空+"产业 本周市场回顾： 本周上证指数上涨 0.09%，北证 A 股指数下跌 3.54%，跑输上证综指 3.63pct，北证 50 指数下跌 4.29%,跑输上证综指 4.38pct，创业板指 数下跌 2.41%，科创板指数下跌 3.18%； 流动性方面，本周北证 A 股总成交额为 1436.6 亿元，北证 50 总成交 额 492.3 亿元，占北证 A 股总成交额的 34.3%，环比+1.87pct。北证 A 股日均成交额 287.31 亿元，环比+8.8%，区间日均换手率为 4.65%， 较上一区间提升 0.38pct； 估值方面，截至 2026 年 1 月 30 日，北证 A 股市盈率中位数为 45.52X； 同期科创板、创业板 PE 中位数分别为 36.28X、37.23X。 个股表现&新股上市情况： 截至 2026 年 1 月 30 日，北交所上市公司总数为 292 家，涨幅靠前的 分别为:科力股份、秋乐种业、连城数控、戈碧迦、美邦科技、蘅东 光、康农种业、铜冠矿建、志高机械、欧福蛋业；跌幅靠前的分别为: ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform the Market - A" [4] Core Insights - The price increase of dyes has been realized, and attention should be paid to changes in the SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) industry chain [1][12] - The supply of key intermediate H acid is under pressure due to environmental and safety production constraints, leading to a significant cost increase for active dyes [2][3] - The industry is experiencing a dual transformation in cost and market structure, with a focus on the concentration of market share among leading companies due to stricter environmental regulations [10][9] Summary by Sections Key Intermediate Supply and Price Dynamics - H acid, essential for producing active dyes, faces supply constraints due to environmental pressures and production incidents, leading to a projected price increase that could raise active dye production costs significantly [2][3] - The effective capacity of H acid is currently below 60,000 tons, with a potential reduction of over 25% due to maintenance shutdowns, reinforcing cost support expectations for active dyes [2] Market Structure and Environmental Regulations - The dye industry is undergoing a consolidation phase, with many non-compliant small manufacturers exiting the market, leading to a more oligopolistic structure [3][10] - The active dye market's CR4 (concentration ratio) is 64.91%, while the dispersed dye market's CR4 is 70.69%, indicating a significant level of market concentration [10] Investment Opportunities - Companies to watch include Runtao Co., Zhejiang Longsheng, Jinji Co., Jihua Group, Yabang Co., Annuoqi, Fulei Ant, Wanfeng Co., and Haixiang Pharmaceutical, which are positioned to benefit from the evolving market dynamics [11] - The SAF sector is also highlighted for potential growth, with expected increases in demand driven by regulatory changes and market dynamics [12][14]

2026 年 02 月 01 日 有色金属 全球政策预期突变，关注稀土等国内主 导品种 市场一夜之间，政策预期突然转变，金银领跌商品市场，并引发美股 一系列连锁反应，核心因特朗普提名凯文沃什担任美联储主席。沃什 倡导"缩表 + 降息"的政策组合，偏鹰派的策略给市场浇一盆冷水， 金银等品种出现杠杆杀多现象。短期沃什的提名受阻风险高，5 月任 期交接前均有变数。总之，在政策未完全明朗前，短期金属可能高波 震荡，需注意控制风险。当前可关注受宏观影响较小的板块（稀土、 钨、钽），以及春节后的工业金属（铜铝等）。长期金属逻辑未变， 全球新产业链发展持续拉动金属需求，而供给端的约束持续存在，美 元信用长期走弱是趋势。中长期持续看好稀土铜铝钨金银锡锂钽铌 锑铀等金属。 贵金属 金银：本周 COMEX 金银分别收于 4879.6、84.8 美元/盎司,环比分别 -1.94%、-16.0%。特朗普总统宣布将提名凯文·沃什担任下届美联储 主席，其前期任职期间经常支持更高利率引发市场对美联储后续货币 政策的担忧，金银价格调整幅度较大。央行和 etf 资金积极增持黄金 驱动延续，美元信用担忧仍存，短期价格回调但持续看好金价中长期 上 ...

2026 年 01 月 30 日 基础化工 关键中间体 H 酸供应紧张，活性染料潜 在涨价弹性或释放——染料更新② 事件： 据百川盈孚，1 月 29 日，大柴旦乐青科技有限公司 1 万吨 H 酸装置 停车检修、大柴旦和信科技有限公司 H 酸暂不报价，年产 0.5 万吨装 置停车检修。同日 H 酸市场均价+0.63%（+250 元/吨）至 4.03 万元/ 吨）活性染料市场均价+4.55%（+1000 元/吨）至 2.30 万元/吨。 998948056 活性染料生产必需 H 酸，环保及安全生产压力大 活性染料用于棉、麻、羊毛、蚕丝等织物染色，据 Industry Research 咨询，全球 65%的棉质服装、家纺制品依赖活性染料。H 酸则是生产 活性、酸性和直接染料的关键中间体原料之一，覆盖品类广泛，如活 性艳红 K2BP、活性紫 K-3R、活性溶蓝 K-R、酸性品红 6B、酸性黑 10B、 直接黑等 90 余种。但由于 H 酸生产过程中废水难以处理（废水 COD 高达 30000mg/L）且涉及高危磺化、硝化反应，长期以来行业环保及 安全生产压力较大，较多中小型落后产能陆续淘汰。2025 年以来，部 分企 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Smoore International is maintained as "Buy-A" with a target price of HKD 16.80 [6][4]. Core Insights - Smoore International has demonstrated strong confidence in its long-term value through significant share buybacks, totaling nearly HKD 200 million over two days [2]. - The company reported record revenue of approximately RMB 4.197 billion for Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.2%, driven by the successful launch of new heated not-burn (HNB) products in major global markets [3]. - The company is positioned to benefit from stricter global regulations on non-compliant products, enhancing its status as a compliant leader in the industry [4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Smoore International from 2025 to 2027 are RMB 141.08 billion, RMB 167.17 billion, and RMB 198.67 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 19.57%, 18.50%, and 18.84% respectively [4]. - Net profit estimates for the same period are RMB 10.43 billion, RMB 19.31 billion, and RMB 27.26 billion, with growth rates of -19.93%, 85.12%, and 41.14% respectively [4]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 63.16x, 34.12x, and 24.17x for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 20.54 CNY, while the current stock price is 16.37 CNY [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the demand for waste paper products is boosted by seasonal factors, while cultural paper faces supply and demand pressure. The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability for cultural paper after the spring semester and publishing tender season begins [1]. - The company is expanding its pulp and paper production capacity, with a focus on its three major bases in Shandong, Guangxi, and Laos, which are expected to drive sustainable growth in the long term [3][11]. - The report projects the company's revenue to grow from 425.98 billion CNY in 2025 to 480.71 billion CNY in 2027, with net profit expected to increase from 34.98 billion CNY to 43.82 billion CNY during the same period [11]. Summary by Sections Paper Products - Cultural paper prices have decreased, with double glue paper and copper plate paper averaging 5003 CNY and 4703 CNY per ton respectively in Q4 2025, down 4.01% and 8.51% quarter-on-quarter. However, price increases for white card paper and copper card paper are anticipated [1]. - Waste paper products, including boxboard and corrugated paper, saw price increases of 16.49% and 19.28% respectively in Q4 2025, driven by traditional seasonal demand [1]. Pulp Prices - Pulp prices remained stable in Q4 2025, with needle pulp averaging 703 USD per ton (down 2.41%) and broadleaf pulp at 630 USD per ton (unchanged). The company’s overseas land resources in Laos provide a unique advantage in the industry [2]. Strategic Development - The company plans to invest in its Shandong base to produce 600,000 tons of bleached chemical pulp and 700,000 tons of high-end packaging paper. The Guangxi base is also set to begin trial production for various projects in 2025 [3]. - The strategic development goals of the company are being realized through the establishment of its three major bases, which will enter a new phase of coordinated development [3].

2026 年 1 月 27 日 弘元绿能(603185.SH) 超薄硅片破茧再造技术基石，光储协 同并进点亮未来新篇 事件：2026 年 1 月 23 日，公司位于内蒙古包头的硅片智造基地成功 实现 40μm 超薄硅片首批次下线，实现了整片与半片切割工艺，覆盖全 尺寸规格，可适配柔性电池的超薄硅片需求。其高精度切割环节采用公 司自主研发的切片设备，这一关键突破构筑了公司在硅片薄片化领域的 坚实技术壁垒与先发优势，进一步确立了公司在产业前沿的领先身位。 超薄硅片量产首发，厚积薄发定义技术新标杆 公司作为光伏切割设备的供应龙头，持续对行业技术攻关的深度聚焦， 在磨面滚圆切片设备领域不断深耕，据公司公众号报道其市占率曾一度 超过 70%，并率先实现碳化硅切割设备的国产替代，市占率亦实现 60%突 破。其深厚的装备研发积淀与整机自主设计能力，为超薄硅片的研发构 筑了坚实的技术底座，有力支撑了本次 40μm 超薄硅片的成功下线，创 下了行业新纪录。公司的超薄硅片产品兼具优异的柔性与极轻的质量， 能在圆弧面、曲面等非平面结构上实现高度贴合，并且显著降低系统重 量，精准匹配了组件轻量化与柔性化的前沿应用场景。其出色性能为全 ...