Group 1 - The report highlights that the A-share market is currently in a "new victory over old" phase of the new and old kinetic energy conversion, with a focus on new consumption and new technology sectors [4][55] - The market is expected to experience a structural rotation similar to 2019, characterized by a dual momentum in consumption and technology, with new consumption and new technology showing a "seesaw" effect [2][57] - The report emphasizes the importance of external factors, such as the upcoming US tariff negotiations and significant financial policy announcements expected from the Lujiazui Forum on June 18 [1][3] Group 2 - The report notes that the A-share market has shown resilience, with a strong performance in small-cap stocks and a daily average trading volume of 1.2088 trillion yuan, indicating increased market activity [14][19] - It discusses the structural divergence in capital flows, particularly the slowdown in southbound capital inflows, which reflects a cautious sentiment among investors regarding the realization of previously priced-in benefits [19][22] - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including new consumption represented by the New Consumption 50 index and new technology sectors such as AI and robotics, which are expected to drive future growth [4][40]

2025 年 06 月 08 日 震荡偏强，科技板块仍具性价比 金融工程定期报告 证券研究报告 本期要点：震荡偏强，科技板块仍具性价比 正如上周所述，当前市场走势比 2024 年 6 月要强一些，结构上可以 考虑在均衡的基础上偏向低吸科技板块，目前来看基本符合预期。 上周市场表现相对较强，上证则是再度形成了向上一笔，有挑战 5 月 高点的迹象。但在有效突破 5 月高点之前，上证也有可能因存在日线 顶背离的压制而出现调整的可能性。因此，我们当下维持市场震荡偏 强的判断，但将密切关注在前高附近市场是否展现出有效突破的迹 象；而如果一旦确认突破失败，那么后续或将迎来真正的调整。 上周四盘后，我们的四轮驱动模型再次发出 TMT 方向的多个看多信 号。从相对于市场的低频温度计角度看，目前 TMT 板块仍处于相对低 位；而从拥挤度的角度看，TMT 板块在 5 月底下探两年来的低点之后， 又有再度小幅上行的迹象。这两个因素或使得至少未来一两周内 TMT 是一个值得认真关注的方向。 具体而言，行业上，除了电子、计算机、传媒等板块外，还可以关注 非银、食品饮料、纺织服饰、通信、机械、军工等板块的机会。 风险提示：根据历史数据构 ...

2025 年 06 月 08 日 生物医药Ⅱ 新药周观点：下一个重磅 PD-1 升级产 品 PD-1/IL-2α偏向性双抗潜力验证 本周新药行情回顾： 2025 年 6 月 2 日-2025 年 6 月 6 日，新药板块涨幅前 5 企业：君圣 泰医药-B（24.29%）、再鼎医药（23.28%）、信达生物（18.08%）、 迈威生物（17.72%）、神州细胞（17.24%）；跌幅前 5 企业：德琪医 药-B（-12.68%）、加科思-B（-11.90%）、和铂医药-B（-10.86%）、 康宁杰瑞制药-B（-10.75%）、药明巨诺-B（-8.54%）。 本周新药行业重点分析： PD-(L)1 单抗市场规模庞大，当前全球范围内多家企业正在开发有望 迭代 PD-(L)1 单抗的 PD-1 类升级产品，包括 PD-1/VEGF 双抗、PD- 1/IL-2 双抗、PD-1/4-1BB 双抗、PD-1/TIGIT 双抗、PD-1/IL-15 双抗 等。从 ASCO 2025 披露数据来看，信达生物 PD-1/IL-2α-bias 双抗 IBI363 有望成为继 PD-1/VEGF 双抗之后下一个验证的重磅 PD-1 ...

2025 年 06 月 05 日 医药 国投证券医药产业链数据库之：创新药 投融资，2025 年 5 月全球市场创新药 VC&PE 投融资维持同比正增长 为了更前瞻和领先地观测 CXO 行业的景气度变化，我们借助创新药 VC&PE 投融资情况作为先行指标，从年度、季度、月度等不同时间维 度进行观察。2025 年 5 月全球市场创新药 VC&PE 投融资同比正增长。 年度维度观察：2024 年全球和美国创新药 VC&PE 投融资情况已 恢复正增长 2024 年全球和美国创新药 VC&PE 投融资情况已恢复正增长。根据 Crunchbase 的数据，2024 年 1-12 月全球和美国创新药 VC&PE 投融 资金额分别同比增长 1.93%和 5.29%，较 2023 年分别同比改善 30.51 个百分点和 35.12 个百分点。 季度维度观测：2025Q1 全球市场创新药 VC&PE 投融资增速同比 改善明显 2025Q1 全球市场创新药 VC&PE 投融资增速同比改善明显。根据 Crunchbase 的数据，2025Q1 全球、美国、国内创新药 VC&PE 投融资 金额分别同比增长 20.57%、同比下降 4 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the coexistence of pressure on the profit and loss statement and resilience in the balance sheet of banks in Q1 2025, with revenue and profit growth rates slightly declining compared to previous periods, indicating a low growth environment for the banking sector in 2023 [2][4] - The report emphasizes that understanding the long-term trends in credit policy is crucial for avoiding tail risks, as the direction of credit policy is expected to remain stable, benefiting state-owned enterprises and banks primarily serving government-related clients [2][18] - The report suggests that the valuation changes in the banking sector are driven more by fundamental economic conditions and the shift in funding sources from active public funds to passive long-term funds, which is expected to continue influencing bank stock prices positively [2][16] Industry Performance - In Q1 2025, the average revenue growth rate for 39 listed banks was -1.68%, with a decline in pre-provision profit growth of -2.11% and a net profit growth rate of -1.20%, reflecting seasonal pressures on performance [4][16] - The total asset growth rate for listed banks remained steady at 7.5% year-on-year, with state-owned banks experiencing a slight decline in growth due to high base effects, while smaller banks, particularly city commercial banks, accelerated their expansion [18][20] - The report indicates that the growth in net profit for listed banks in Q1 2025 was primarily driven by scale expansion and growth in middle-income, while net interest margins contracted and other non-interest income growth slowed, contributing to performance challenges [16][18] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on specific banks such as China Merchants Bank, state-owned banks, and Chengdu Bank, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing trends in the banking sector [2][18]

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for May increased to 49.5, up by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a moderate recovery in manufacturing activity[4] - The service sector PMI rose slightly to 50.2, reflecting a mild improvement, while the construction PMI fell to 51, down by 0.9 percentage points[4] - During the Dragon Boat Festival, domestic travel reached 119 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, with total spending of 42.73 billion yuan, up by 5.9%[7] Market Trends - Since the joint statement on May 12, the stock and bond markets have entered a phase of volatility, with rapid rotation among sectors and a dispersion of market leadership[2] - The overall economic volatility is decreasing, with expectations stabilizing, influenced by the easing of tariffs and the implementation of growth policies[2] - The bond market has also shown relative calm, with the 10-year government bond yield remaining significantly below levels prior to tariff increases[16] Tariff and Trade Developments - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled on May 28 that Trump's tariff policy was illegal, leading to a temporary suspension of tariffs, although the government has appealed this decision[5][23] - The U.S. Trade Representative extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation into China's technology transfer practices until August 31, 2025, indicating ongoing trade negotiations[6] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending is showing signs of moderate recovery, with the growth rate of personal disposable income in the U.S. at 5.2%, up by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month[20] - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices in the U.S. is still unfolding, with inflation levels needing close monitoring in the coming months[19][22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Buy-A" with a target price of 454.25 CNY per share, maintaining the rating [7][12]. Core Views - BYD's sales in May 2025 reached 377,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 14% and a month-on-month increase of 1%. Pure electric vehicle sales were 204,000 units, up 40% year-on-year and 4% month-on-month [2][3]. - The company's overseas sales of new energy vehicles in May 2025 reached 89,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 137% and a month-on-month increase of 13% [4]. - The report anticipates continued growth in BYD's basic operations, high-end product offerings, and overseas expansion, with expected net profits of 552.1 billion, 643.9 billion, and 812.4 billion CNY for 2025-2027 [5][12]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In May 2025, BYD's domestic sales were approximately 288,000 units, reflecting a decline of about 2% month-on-month and year-on-year, primarily due to weak overall terminal demand and the nearing end of inventory clearance for non-intelligent driving versions [2]. - The Dynasty and Ocean series launched price promotions on May 23, which are expected to boost store visits and order growth [2]. Product Launches - The Dynasty and Ocean series sold a total of 348,000 units in May, with the Dynasty series at 161,000 units (down 7% year-on-year) and the Ocean series at 183,000 units (up 28% year-on-year) [3]. - New models such as the Sea Lion 07DM-i and BYD e7 were launched, contributing to the sales growth of high-end brands like Tengshi and Fangchengbao [3]. Overseas Expansion - BYD's overseas sales continue to set new records, with significant progress in various regions including the Americas, Europe, and Asia [4]. - The establishment of a European headquarters and the launch of new models in multiple European countries are part of BYD's strategy to enhance its international presence [4]. Financial Projections - The report projects BYD's revenue growth rates of 42% for 2023, 29% for 2024, and a steady increase in net profit margins, with a net profit margin of 5.6% expected by 2025 [13][14]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to grow from 9.88 CNY in 2023 to 18.17 CNY in 2025, reflecting strong profitability [13][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" with a target to exceed the performance of the CSI 300 Index by 10% or more over the next six months [5][29]. Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of domestic production in "bottleneck" areas due to geopolitical tensions, particularly in sectors with low localization rates and significant reliance on foreign suppliers, such as industrial software, electronic measurement instruments, and cybersecurity [10][11]. - The current focus is on the expansive growth potential in artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics, with both China and the US leading in model and application development [11][12]. - Future opportunities are identified in disruptive technologies within the technology and finance sectors, particularly in quantum computing and stablecoins, which are reshaping the financial landscape [14][18]. Summary by Sections Past Developments - The report notes that geopolitical tensions have created opportunities for domestic production in critical areas, particularly in industrial software and cybersecurity, with specific companies highlighted for investment potential [10][11]. Current Trends - The AI sector is experiencing rapid advancements, with significant developments from both domestic and international players. The report emphasizes the importance of infrastructure and application deployment driven by AI models [11][12]. - The robotics industry is seeing standard upgrades and increased competition, with new standards being established to guide development and investment opportunities [12][13]. Future Outlook - Quantum computing is expected to revolutionize computational power and drive demand for quantum security solutions. The report outlines significant advancements and competitive developments in this field [14][15][17]. - The stablecoin market is evolving under regulatory frameworks, presenting new investment opportunities in cross-border payments and blockchain technology [18][19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 32.79 CNY per share, while the current share price is 22.46 CNY [4]. Core Views - The company has shown strong performance in May with a wholesale sales volume of 102,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 12% and a month-on-month increase of 2% [1]. - The domestic sales reached 68,000 units in May, up 19% year-on-year, primarily driven by the accelerated delivery of models such as Tank 300 and the second-generation Xiaolong MAX [2]. - The company is entering a new growth phase with the launch of new models and a focus on the mainstream market, which is expected to lead to a sales upturn [3]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In May, the company achieved a wholesale sales volume of 102,000 units, with a notable increase in new energy vehicle sales, which reached 33,000 units, up 32% year-on-year and 13% month-on-month [2]. - The Tank series sold 21,000 units, while Haval and Wey brands also reported significant year-on-year growth of 23% and 115%, respectively [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the launch of new models and a refined marketing strategy, which could lead to a significant increase in sales in the domestic mainstream new energy market [3]. - The Hi4Z technology is anticipated to enhance the Tank series' appeal, potentially expanding its market share in urban SUVs [3]. - The company has a diverse product lineup and strong technological reserves, indicating substantial export potential as new models and powertrains are introduced [3]. Financial Projections - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 14.03 billion, 17.40 billion, and 20.96 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 13.7, 11.1, and 9.2 times [9][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of HKD 135.84 for the next six months [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a May delivery volume of 41,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.7% and a month-on-month increase of 20.4%, driven by the launch of the new Mega and L series [1][2]. - The new Mega model has seen significant order volume exceeding expectations, with projected deliveries of 2,500-3,000 units in July, indicating a growth of 150-200% compared to stable monthly deliveries in 2024 [1][2]. - The L series has enhanced product capabilities, with the L9 featuring advanced suspension systems and upgraded chips for improved safety and performance, with expectations for monthly deliveries to exceed 50,000 units as demand recovers [2][3]. - The company is expanding its sales and service network, with 506 retail centers and 502 service centers established by the end of May [2]. - The company anticipates delivering 123,000 to 128,000 vehicles in Q2 2025, generating revenue between CNY 32.5 billion and 33.8 billion [2]. - The next-generation smart driving architecture is set to launch with the pure electric i8 in July, enhancing the company's competitive edge in the market [2][3]. - The company has a solid order backlog for the MEGA model and is expanding its charging infrastructure, with over 2,414 supercharging stations as of May 31 [3]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profits of CNY 10.3 billion, CNY 16.0 billion, and CNY 17.7 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22.6, 14.6, and 13.2 [3][10]. - Revenue projections for the company are CNY 167.3 billion in 2025, CNY 234.9 billion in 2026, and CNY 281.9 billion in 2027, reflecting a growth trajectory [10][12]. - The company’s net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 6.2% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 12.8% [10][12].