2025 年 05 月 18 日 恒林股份(603661.SH) 据国家统计局与海关总署，2024 年我国家具及其零件出口 4830 亿 元，同比增长 7.0%，其中，办公金属家具/办公木家具/带软垫的木 框架坐具/带软垫的金属框架坐具/木质可调节高度的转动坐具/非木 质 可 调 节 高 度 的 转 动 坐 具 累 计 出 口 额 75.1/100.37/477.96/493.03/3.39/248.74 亿元，同比 +22.7%/+15.52%/+3.28%/+9.84%/+23.94%/+9.2%。 分销售模式看，24 年公司 OBM 业务营业收入为 59.40 亿元，同比增 加 76.97%，占比达到总营业收入的 53.86%。 分产品看，1）24 年办公家具销售收入为 35.52 亿元，同比增长 2.37%。 2）24 年板式家具实现销售收入 10.21 亿元，同比下降 8.83%。3）24 年新材料地板收入为 15.33 亿元，同比增长 2.89%。4）24 年软体家 具收入为 14.27 亿元，同比增长 10.83%。 分地区看，1）24 年国际营收 98.87 亿元，同比增长 48.88%。2） ...

2025 年 5 月 18 日 电子 台积电积极扩产应对 AI 浪潮，自主芯片国 产化进程提速 台积电先进制程与全球扩产 台积电宣布其 3nm 已进入稳定量产，2nm 制程将于下半年大规模出 货，同时积极扩产封装产能。2024 年起新增 9 座厂区，包含中国台 湾、日本、美国、德国等地，以满足 AI 相关芯片高速成长的需求。 其 2.5D/3D 封装平台 CoWoS 年增幅达 80%，SOIC 年产能翻倍。 小米 SoC 芯片玄戒 O1 将于 5 月下旬发布 小米集团 CEO 雷军宣布，自研手机 SoC 芯片"玄戒 O1"将于 5 月下旬 发布。该芯片预计采用台积电 4nm 工艺，性能对标苹果 A16，标志 国产手机 SoC 芯片正式进入 5nm 以下高端制程行列。目前小米已在 上海和北京分别成立芯片设计公司，研发团队超千人，总投资超 45 亿元。 全球芯片市场结构重塑 市调机构 Omdia 预计，2024 年全球半导体市场规模将达 6830 亿 美元，同比增长 25%。其中 NVIDIA 营收大增 118.6%，首次超越 Intel 成为全球第一大芯片厂；SK 海力士增长近一倍。传统模拟 厂商如英飞凌、意法 ...

2025 年 05 月 18 日 筹码定天下：银行和微盘的新高 本周上证指数涨 0.76%，沪深 300 涨 1.12%，创业板指涨 1.38%，恒生指数跌 2.09%，成长风格表现强于价值风格。本周全 A 日均交易额 12662 亿，环比上 周有所下降。5 月 12 日中美双方在对等关税落地后首轮谈判超预期落地，在限 制期限内保留按该行政令的规定对这些商品加征剩余 10%的关税，全球风险资 产迎来一轮集中的 risk-on，主要呈现为黄金大跌、美股大涨接近前高，对应本 周 A 股市场由于黄金坑兑现已经完成"填坑行情"，相较于外围定价风险偏好 提升显得颇为冷静。事实上，目前内部资金的心情则稍显复杂，看到银行和小微 盘双双创出新高，杠铃策略的演绎进一步走向极致，似乎"筹码定天下"的环境 再次出现。同时也对大盘指数存在一定忧虑：一方面来自于关税谈判超预期落 地后，是否会削弱国内"对冲政策"必要性的预期；另一方面，首轮关税谈判所 产生乐观情绪是否是未来一段时间的顶点，后续是否存在反复或者进一步加剧 的风险。在此，我们依然强调：大盘指数在黄金坑兑现后转入"震荡市"思维， 尽管大盘在"出坑"后风险偏好集中提升阶段已经结 ...

2025 年 05 月 18 日 生物医药Ⅱ 新药周观点：脓毒症治疗迎来新突破， 远大医药 STC3141 中国 2 期成功 2025 年 5 月 12 日-2025 年 5 月 16 日，新药板块涨幅前 5 企业：君 圣泰（19.78%）、德琪医药（18.34%）、嘉和生物（14.48%）、科济 药业（14.46%）、复宏汉霖（12.34%）；跌幅前 5 企业：歌礼制药（- 17.10%）、康宁杰瑞（-8.72%）、云顶新耀（-7.77%）、泽璟制药（- 7.18%）、创胜集团（-6.96%）。 本周新药行业重点分析： 脓毒症治疗存在严重未满足临床需求，近日远大医药宣布其开发的全 球创新药物 STC3141 在中国开展的用于治疗脓毒症的 II 期临床研究 成功达到临床终点，标志着脓毒症治疗迎来新的突破。 脓毒症(sepsis)是感染引起宿主反应失调,导致危及生命的器官功能 损害的症候群,是一个高病死率的临床综合征。根据 WHO 的数据，2017 年全球估计有 4890 万例脓毒症病例和 1100 万例脓毒症死亡病例。 当前脓毒症治疗主要以对症治疗为主，主要包括药物治疗（抗生素、 血管加压药、静脉输液等）、支 ...

2025 年 05 月 18 日 房地产 信阳全面推行现房销售 周观点：现房销售逐步推进 信阳住建局印发《关于加强商品房预售管理工作的若干措施（试行） 的批前公示》，要求严控预售条件许可，规范预售资金使用。同时， 明确文件印发后新出让土地开发的商品房，一律实行现房销售。 我们认为，当前发展房地产行业新发展模式下，现房销售作为构建新 发展模式中的环节之一，将逐步试点推进，改善当前房地产市场供需 环境，增强居民购房信心。建议关注困境反转类房企：金地集团、新 城控股等；保持拿地强度的龙头招商蛇口、绿城中国、保利发展、滨 江集团等；多元经营稳健发展的地方国企浦东金桥、外高桥等。 销售回顾（5.10-5.16） 重点监测 32 城合计成交总套数为 1.6 万套，环比上周增长 27.3%； 2025 年累计成交总套数为 29.6 万套，累计同比下降 2.6%。其中，一 线城市成交 5319 套，环比上周增长 43.6%，2025 年累计成交 8.5 万 套，累计同比增长 13%；二线城市成交 9045 套，环比上周增长 22%， 2025 年累计成交 17.6 万套，累计同比下降 8.9%；三线城市成交 1966 套，环 ...

2025 年 05 月 18 日 或仅是整理，蓄势以待机 本期要点：或仅是整理，蓄势以待机 上期提到，全天候模型发出了技术面上的风险提示信号，从这个角度 看未来一段时间市场或将进入技术上的震荡整理期。事后来看，走势 基本符合预期。 对于大盘，从走势形态看，本轮反弹已经涨了两波，第二波是从五一 之后开始的。从周期分析模型对不同级别趋势的监控分析结果来看， 当前潜在的调整仅是针对于五一之后上涨过程的调整，而四月初以来 的上行趋势或并没有已经结束的充分证据。从这个角度看，本轮调整 或最多回到 4 月底 5 月初的震荡区间，随后有望重新开始一波上行 走势，只有在那波上行趋势再次衰竭的时候才能判断本轮反弹是否真 正结束了。 在当前潜在的蓄势震荡过程中，四轮驱动模型建议关注军工、家电、 农林牧渔、汽车、电子、计算机、非银等板块。整体风格上可以适当 偏小盘，结构上可以适当偏均衡一些。 风险提示：根据历史数据构建的模型在市场变化时可能失效。 金融工程定期报告 证券研究报告 杨勇 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1450518010002 yangyong1@essence.com.cn 相关报告 结构重于仓位，继续关注先 进 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company with a 12-month target price of 399.56 CNY [4][7]. Core Views - The report highlights the potential of the company's EGFR×HER3 bispecific antibody ADC in the overseas market, especially due to its collaboration with BMS, which is expected to drive significant sales growth [1][2]. - The company has established a strong pipeline in ADC and bispecific antibody fields, with multiple innovative products entering clinical stages, indicating promising future developments [1][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is positioned as an innovative drug development enterprise with a global perspective, focusing on ADC and bispecific antibody platforms. It has 15 candidate drugs in clinical stages and over 80 clinical trials globally [12]. Core Product - The core product, BL-B01D1, is the world's first EGFR×HER3 bispecific antibody ADC, currently in collaboration with BMS. The product has shown excellent clinical data and is in advanced clinical trials both domestically and internationally [2][3]. ADC Pipeline - The company has eight ADC drugs in clinical development, including BL-M07D1, which is in phase 3 trials. New generation linker-payload drugs BL-B16D1 and BL-M17D1 have also entered clinical stages [3][21]. Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to improve significantly from 2024 onwards, primarily due to the collaboration with BMS, which includes an upfront payment of 800 million USD and potential milestone payments [21][31]. - The company has faced losses in recent years due to heavy investments in R&D, but profitability is anticipated to improve as core products progress towards commercialization [21][22]. R&D Investment - R&D expenses have increased significantly, reaching 744 million CNY in 2023, with a projected 1.443 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting the company's commitment to advancing its clinical pipeline [27][28]. Management Team - The management team comprises experienced professionals from various fields, providing strong leadership and expertise in drug development and commercialization [15][16]. Market Position - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the top ten shareholders holding 88.36% of the shares, indicating strong control by core stakeholders [18][19]. Clinical Development Strategy - The company is actively pursuing overseas development through collaborations with multinational corporations and its subsidiary SystImmune, enhancing its global reach [31][32].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company with a target price of 60.08 CNY [5][8]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading manufacturer of high-end paper equipment, with expectations for significant revenue and profit growth in 2025 due to industry demand recovery and new product orders [1][3]. - The company has established a strong technological barrier in the domestic market, leading the way in the replacement of imported equipment with its own [2][3]. - The company is expanding into new materials and robotics, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth alongside its core business [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leader in high-end paper equipment manufacturing, providing fully automated intelligent equipment and solutions for paper production, processing, and packaging [16][21]. - The actual controller holds 69.58% of the shares, indicating a concentrated ownership structure [21]. Market Demand and Technology - The demand for high-end paper equipment is steadily increasing, with a significant portion of the market expected to shift towards domestic manufacturers [2][45]. - The company has a competitive edge with its advanced manufacturing technology, achieving a 42% domestic replacement rate in the post-processing equipment sector by 2021 [2][3]. Growth Strategy - The company is pursuing a dual strategy of "equipment + materials," expanding into new business areas such as palletizing robots and lithium battery separator equipment [2][3]. - The company has made several acquisitions to enhance its capabilities in emerging markets, supported by a substantial industry fund of 1.9 billion CNY [2][3]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow significantly from 1.26 billion CNY in 2025 to 1.91 billion CNY by 2027, with corresponding net profits expected to rise from 160 million CNY to 257 million CNY during the same period [3][9]. - The company anticipates a recovery in its core business in 2025, driven by new orders and the expansion of its second growth curve in new energy equipment and film materials [1][27]. Competitive Landscape - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing consolidation in the paper manufacturing industry, with leading players expanding their market share and improving operational efficiencies [64][65]. - The market for paper products in China is expected to continue growing, with significant room for per capita consumption to increase compared to developed countries [45][53].

2025 年 05 月 13 日 农林牧渔 产能环比增加，5 月猪价或稳定微涨 生猪养殖：产能稳定微增，猪价短期内或小幅上涨 价格端：本周生猪均价 14.81 元/kg，周环比+0.14%，两周环比-0.50%； 仔猪价格 647 元/头，周环比-0.31%，两周环比-0.15%。根据 iFinD 数据，本周猪肉批发价格 20.82 元/kg，周环比+0.15%。 供给端：本周生猪日均屠宰量为 17.34 万头，周环比变动+1.89%。 周观点：根据涌益咨询数据，4 月能繁母猪存栏量环比+0.96%，同比 +5.21%，上月环比数值-0.25%。部分中型规模母猪场布局扩产，本月 新增母猪产能略有增加，计划根据下半年卖仔猪或明年自繁自养卖育 肥猪灵活操作。据 Mysteel 点评，5 月份出栏计划较四月份实际完成 微增 1.22%，出栏压力增加不明显，散户和二育集中出栏所造成的影 响有限，加上二育入场托底，大概率月度价格重心上移，均价水平或 高于四月。不过终端需求无明显改善，阶段性拉涨动力不足，因此价 格稳步小涨为主。 家禽养殖：白羽肉鸡持续稳定，分割品价格大稳小落 周观点：据我的钢铁网显示，本周种蛋价格下行调 ...

Economic Outlook - The joint statement indicates that the most pessimistic expectations for the macro economy are passing, with effective control over tail risks of economic slowdown[2] - The economy is likely to show a V-shaped recovery this year, with a continuation of recovery expected in the second half[2] Trade and Tariffs - The US-China joint statement on May 12, 2025, includes a 90-day suspension of most tariff increases, maintaining US tariffs on China at approximately 42%[4] - April exports decreased by 4.3 percentage points to a year-on-year growth of 8.1%, supported by "transshipment" during the tariff suspension period[7] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing products, such as ships and automobiles, showed strong growth, with ship exports increasing by 67.8% in April[7] - Exports to the US fell sharply, with a year-on-year decline from 9.1% in March to -21.0% in April, while exports to ASEAN and India grew significantly, at 22.5% and 21.7% respectively[8] Inflation and Prices - April's Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year decreased by 2.7%, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained stable at -0.1% year-on-year[11][13] - The recovery of consumer prices is expected to be gradual, heavily reliant on the implementation of growth-stimulating policies[14] Market Trends - The equity market has been on an upward trend, driven by factors such as military performance in recent conflicts and timely monetary policy responses[16] - The market's focus is shifting back to domestic economic fundamentals, with signs of recovery in consumption, real estate, and manufacturing sectors[18]