重点监测 18 城合计成交二手房总套数为 2.5 万套，环比上周增长 1%； 2025 年累计成交总套数为 60.9 万套，累计同比增长 14.6%。 土地供应（6.9-6.15） 2025 年 06 月 22 日 房地产 5 月房价环比走弱 周观点：5 月统计局全国地产数据环比走弱 2025 年 5 月，全国房地产市场底部。单月开发投资同比降幅扩大至- 12.0%（前值-11.3%），1-5 月累计投资 3.62 万亿元，同比下降 10.7%。 新房销售端动能减弱，单月商品房销售面积同比下降 3.3%，降幅较 4 月扩大 1.2 个百分点；单月销售额同比下降 6.0%。价格方面，70 城 新房价格环比下跌 0.2%，跌幅扩大 0.1 个百分点；二手房环比下跌 0.5%，跌幅扩大 0.1 个百分点，仅三城二手房环比上涨（无锡、洛阳、 南充），一线城市全面转跌。 我们认为，5 月房地产数据呈现出销售面积降幅收窄，但房价下行压 力加大的市场特征，在房价，建议关注困境反转类房企：金地集团、 新城控股等；保持拿地强度的龙头招商蛇口、绿城中国、保利发展、 滨江集团等；多元经营稳健发展的地方国企浦东金桥、外高桥等。 销售 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a "golden pit" scenario for the A-share market, indicating a period of volatility without significant downward pressure or a second bottom formation [1][2][3] - The market is currently characterized by a "push-up" pattern of narrow fluctuations, a "barbell" strategy focusing on banks and micro-cap stocks, and a "seesaw" effect between new consumption and new technology [1][2][3] - The report suggests that the recent U.S. airstrikes on Iran are unlikely to escalate into a larger conflict, which could have significant implications for inflation and market stability [1][2] Group 2 - The report outlines three potential scenarios for the second half of the year, drawing parallels to previous years: 2020, 2024, and 2019, each with distinct market characteristics and structural focuses [2][3][4] - The 2020 scenario suggests a bull market driven by synchronized policy responses from the U.S., Europe, and China, with a focus on core growth assets [2][3] - The 2024 scenario anticipates a double bottom formation with a focus on high-dividend strategies, while the 2019 scenario emphasizes a transition between old and new economic drivers, showcasing a dual momentum in consumption and technology [3][4][5] Group 3 - The report notes that the A-share market is currently experiencing a significant shift towards new economic drivers, particularly in sectors like AI, military technology, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to support market resilience [4][5][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the dynamics of the A-share market in relation to the Hong Kong market, particularly regarding the AH premium, which has reached a five-year low, indicating a divergence in valuations [34][39][70] - The report also highlights the ongoing transformation in the consumption sector, with new consumption indices outperforming traditional ones, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior and market dynamics [57][58][60]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" [7] Core Insights - The 85th American Diabetes Association (ADA) conference revealed excellent weight loss data for several domestic GLP-1 products from companies such as HengRui Medicine, GeLi Pharmaceutical, and others [2][20] - Notable weight loss results include HengRui's HRS9531 showing an average weight reduction of 17.97% at week 32, and BoRui's BGM0504 showing a 19.78% reduction at week 24 [2][20] - The report highlights a significant increase in new drug applications, with 4 new drugs approved and 5 new drug applications accepted this week [4][24] Summary by Sections New Drug Market Review - From June 16 to June 20, 2025, the top five companies in the new drug sector by stock price increase were: - Ascentage Pharma-B (15.88%) - WuXi AppTec-B (14.67%) - Eucure Biopharma-B (6.60%) - Genscript Biotech-B (1.91%) - Beihai Kangcheng-B (1.54%) - The top five companies by stock price decrease were: - Kedi-B (-22.68%) - Deqi Pharma-B (-19.69%) - Zai Lab (-16.44%) - Tsinghua Tongfang-B (-16.18%) - Nocera Health (-15.34%) [1][16] Key Analysis of New Drug Industry - The ADA conference showcased multiple domestic companies disclosing their GLP-1 products' weight loss data, with significant results from HengRui, GeLi, and others [2][20] - In the GLP-1/GIP dual-target peptide category, HengRui's HRS9531 achieved a 17.97% weight reduction, while BoRui's BGM0504 reached 19.78% [2][20] New Drug Approval & Acceptance - This week, 4 new drug applications were approved, including: - Quadrivalent influenza virus split vaccine - Rituximab injection - 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine - Daridorexant tablets - Additionally, 5 new drug applications were accepted, including: - Ranibizumab injection - Insulin degludec injection - Paclitaxel oral solution - Masitinib dispersible tablets - Pirtobrutinib tablets [4][24][25] Clinical Application Approval & Acceptance - A total of 45 new drug clinical applications were approved, and 29 new drug clinical applications were accepted this week [5][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" compared to the market, indicating an expected return that will exceed the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [8]. Core Insights - The Huawei Developer Conference (HDC 2025) showcased significant advancements in AI and operating systems, highlighting the release of HarmonyOS 6, which is now installed on over 40 Huawei devices and supports more than 30,000 applications [2][15]. - The introduction of the Harmony AI Framework (HMAF) aims to create a new AI ecosystem with autonomous decision-making and collaborative capabilities, enhancing human-computer interaction [3][16]. - The Pangu Model 5.5 was launched, featuring various specialized models for different applications, indicating a substantial upgrade in AI capabilities [4][17]. - The CloudRobo platform was introduced to empower various connected devices to function as intelligent robots, showcasing advancements in industrial applications [5][18]. - The CloudMatrix 384 solution integrates 384 Ascend AI chips and 192 Kunpeng CPU chips, significantly enhancing AI cloud service capabilities with a fourfold increase in inference throughput [6][19]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The computer industry index decreased by 1.87% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.036 percentage points [20][21]. - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with AI applications experiencing notable pullbacks [20][24]. Important News - Huawei's launch of the Pangu Model 5.5 and Ascend AI cloud services marks a breakthrough in domestic AI computing capabilities, with significant improvements in inference efficiency and model architecture [28]. - Meta's acquisition of Scale AI for $14.3 billion aims to bolster its AI capabilities, reflecting the competitive landscape in AI development [28]. - The introduction of new models by Google and Alibaba indicates ongoing innovation and competition in the AI sector [28].

2025 年 06 月 22 日 环保及公用事业 5 月用电量数据发布，虚拟电厂建设加 速推进 本周专题：虚拟电厂推进加速，商业模式进一步清晰 6 月 4 日，国家发改委与国家能源局发布《关于组织开展新型电力系 统建设第一批试点工作的通知》，通知提出要围绕构网型技术、系统 友好型新能源电站、智能微电网、算力与电力协同、虚拟电厂、大规 模高比例新能源外送、新一代煤电等七个方向开展试点工作。这是继 4 月"357 号文"发布后又一国家层面加快虚拟电厂发展的文件。地 方层面看，上海、陕西等地相继发布相关政策，虚拟电厂建设加速推 进。357 号文的发布，从明确准入条件、健全电能量市场机制、完善 辅助服务市场机制和优化需求响应机制四个方面，为虚拟电厂参与电 力市场提供了清晰的路径和规范。建议关注虚拟电厂/功率预测相关 标的，国能日新、朗新集团、东方电子、恒实科技、国网信通、协鑫 能科、合康新能等；以及受益于数据中心放量的绿电标的，同力日升 等。 行情回顾： 6 月 9 日-6 月 20 日上证指数下跌 0.75%，创业板指下跌 1.45%，公用 事业指数下跌 0.87%，跑输上证综指 0.12pct,环保指数下跌 3. ...

- The report mentions a "Four-Wheel Drive Model" as part of its analysis framework[5][12] - The model identifies potential opportunities in weak sectors based on metrics such as RS6, momentum (Mom), trend strength (TendS), temperature (Tempe), and new high (Newhigh)[12] - Specific examples include the electronics sector with RS6: 0.47, Mom: 0.14 (0.14 -> 0.21), TendS: 0.22 (0.33, 1, 229), Tempe: 44.4, and Newhigh: 0.03[12] - Another example is the communication sector with RS6: 0.2, Mom: 0.22 (0.11 -> 0.17), TendS: 0.23 (0.33, 6, 40), Tempe: 51.9, and Newhigh: 0.08[12]

2025 年 06 月 20 日 轻工制造 AI 眼镜万亿市场如何掘金？ AI 眼镜是 AI 大模型的最佳应用载体之一。AI 眼镜在传统眼镜基础上搭 载了人工智能技术，可集成相机、蓝牙耳机、AR 等多重设备或功能。AI 眼镜占据人体唯一无接触多模态（视觉+听觉+语言）交互入口，为 AI 大 模型落地移动终端硬件的绝佳载体。 我们认为 AI 眼镜有望快速普及，且具备成为下一代移动终端潜力。眼 镜为高频日用品，消费者较易接受每日长时间佩戴，AI 眼镜凭借轻量、 美观时尚、亲民价格、AI 大模型交互赋能，以及所需技术已初步成熟， 有望较快迭代出达普及水平的产品。其一体集成相机、蓝牙耳机等高渗透 率品类功能，适配工作、娱乐高频场景，存在刚需，具备快速普及潜力。 同时，AI+AR 的终极形态有望成为继智能手机下一代移动智能终端。 无显示 AI 眼镜有望快速渗透，AI+AR 眼镜锚定万亿市场。从消费者真 实需求入手，我们假设无显示 AI 眼镜将替代部分的蓝牙耳机、运动相 机，测算无显示 AI 眼镜全球市场空间接近 3 亿台、超 1900 亿元。AI+AR 眼镜有望创造新功能适配多元场景，我们假设预计长期渗透率达智能手机 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating with a 6-month target price of 15.78 CNY [5][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the launch of its new health-oriented product, VitaYoung, which features a "6-zero" formula, aligning with health consumption trends and potentially driving significant sales growth [1]. - A new generation manager has taken over, indicating a shift towards professional and youthful governance, alongside a revamped marketing strategy that leverages online media and celebrity endorsements to enhance brand visibility among younger consumers [2]. - The company is experiencing a reduction in the cost of bulk powder, leading to an increase in gross margin, which is projected to continue improving due to favorable raw milk prices [3]. - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, planning to distribute approximately 194 million CNY in cash dividends, which represents 86.57% of the net profit for the year [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue growth is forecasted at 8.0%, 8.5%, and 9.0% for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth expected at 7.5%, 15.5%, and 15.1% respectively, indicating strong growth potential [5][18]. - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected to be 1,528 million CNY, with a gross margin of 41.7% [19][26]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.60 CNY in 2023 to 0.81 CNY by 2027 [19][26]. Business Structure and Product Lines - The company focuses on sweet milk beverage products, with a significant portion of revenue coming from its core dairy drink segment, which has shown consistent growth [10][12]. - The product mix includes a variety of beverages, with dairy drinks accounting for 95.69% of revenue, while new product lines like plant protein and vitamin water are being developed to meet diverse consumer needs [12][16]. - The company has established a strong distribution network, covering over 2,600 dealers nationwide, which supports its market presence [13].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company with a target price of 11.88 CNY, based on a 45 times PE for 2025 [7][11]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic supplier of high-purity electronic gases, benefiting from the domestic substitution trend in the semiconductor industry. It has achieved a market share of 15.3% in the bulk gas market by 2024, breaking the foreign monopoly [1][2][20]. - The company's revenue is projected to grow significantly, with expected revenues of 7.8 billion CNY in 2025 and 20.2 billion CNY in 2027, driven by major projects coming online [2][11]. - The helium price cycle is showing signs of recovery, which is expected to improve the company's profitability in the coming years [4][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a history of over 50 years in the gas industry, transitioning from a gas supply plant for a steel factory to a specialized gas supplier. It has successfully broken the foreign monopoly in the electronic gas sector [1][20]. - Revenue increased from 867 million CNY in 2020 to 2.103 billion CNY in 2024, with a CAGR of 24.8%. However, net profit decreased from 270 million CNY to 248 million CNY during the same period due to helium price fluctuations [16][19]. Electronic Bulk Gas Market - The electronic bulk gas market in China is expected to reach 9.7 billion CNY in 2024, with a projected CAGR of 7.5% from 2025 to 2030. The company has a leading position with a 41% new bid rate in 2024 [2][45]. - The company’s bulk gas business accounted for 71% of its revenue in 2024, with a significant increase in sales driven by the semiconductor industry [1][24]. General Industrial Gas - The general industrial gas segment remains stable, generating 4-5 billion CNY in revenue, with key clients including major corporations in various industries [3][31]. Helium Price Recovery - The company is the largest domestic helium importer, with 13.4% of the national import volume in 2024. The current helium prices are at historical lows, but a recovery is anticipated, which will enhance profit margins [4][11][24]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 348 million CNY, 582 million CNY, and 842 million CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 41%, 67%, and 45% [11][12].

Economic Overview - In May, industrial added value growth year-on-year was 5.8%, a slight decline of 0.3 percentage points from April, indicating a continued slowdown in industrial production[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in May remained at a historical low, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.4%, reflecting a cooling total demand[4] - Fixed asset investment growth in May was 2.7%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, with widespread declines in infrastructure, real estate, and manufacturing investments[7] Investment Trends - Infrastructure investment (including electricity) in May grew by 9.3%, a slight decline of 0.3 percentage points from April, while real estate investment fell by 12.0% year-on-year[7][10] - Private investment in May showed a year-on-year decline of 0.6%, indicating weak long-term investment intentions among private enterprises[8] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of consumer goods in May increased by 6.4% year-on-year, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, driven by essential and durable goods[13] - However, optional consumer goods showed a significant slowdown, with growth rates dropping to around 0, indicating weak internal demand recovery[14] Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment - The latest U.S. inflation data for May was weaker than expected, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 2.4% year-on-year, suggesting limited impact from tariff policies[23][24] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rates during the upcoming FOMC meeting, awaiting clearer signals before considering rate cuts[25] Risks and Outlook - Risks include geopolitical tensions and potential policy changes that exceed expectations, which could impact economic stability[3] - Overall, the economic slowdown is expected to be moderate, with manageable risks of economic stall due to ongoing tariff negotiations and growth stabilization policies[2][14]