Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company with a 12-month target price of 114 yuan [5][8]. Core Insights - The company has successfully transitioned from police equipment to military models, focusing on special robots and intelligent perception as its two main businesses. It has developed various special robots for reconnaissance, bomb disposal, and nuclear detection, winning multiple bids [2][3]. - The company is positioned as a core supplier for intelligent grouping of manned and unmanned equipment, enhancing situational awareness and operational effectiveness in military applications [3][4]. - The company has strategically entered the overseas market, benefiting from the rapid growth of the drone export market, with monthly export values increasing from 10-20 billion yuan to 30-40 billion yuan [4]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 0.21 billion yuan, 0.62 billion yuan, and 1.53 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with growth rates of turning profitable, 202%, and 146% respectively [5]. - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 0.225 billion yuan in 2023 to 0.980 billion yuan in 2027, with a significant recovery anticipated in 2025 [6][22]. Business Analysis - The company has been deeply engaged in the "intelligent perception + robotics" sector for over a decade, with a focus on military trade and technology reserves since 2016 [15][19]. - The company has developed a range of special robots and intelligent perception devices, with a strong market presence and competitive edge in the domestic and international markets [36][40]. - The company is actively expanding into simulation and intelligent manufacturing sectors, which are expected to contribute to balanced revenue streams [25][27]. Market Position - The global special robot market is projected to grow from 5.9 billion USD in 2020 to 13.3 billion USD in 2025, with the Chinese market expected to increase from 12.1 billion yuan to 29.9 billion yuan in the same period [40][41]. - The company is recognized as a key player in the intelligent perception equipment sector, with capabilities in developing complex optical reconnaissance devices and a comprehensive product range [42][43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the coal industry [6]. Core Insights - The coal pricing policy in China has shifted from administrative price stabilization to market-oriented flexible regulation from 2022 to 2025, with a focus on optimizing supply structure and enhancing cost support [1][17]. - The complete cost of coal enterprises in major production areas provides a bottom support for port prices, with the support level estimated at approximately 574 RMB/ton for Shanxi and Shaanxi regions [2][30]. - The coal industry is expected to maintain its role as a cornerstone of China's energy system, with supply constraints and gradual energy structure transformation supporting a high price level for coal [11]. Summary by Sections 1. Special Research - The shift in coal pricing policy aims to stabilize energy supply while ensuring reasonable profits for coal and electricity sectors [1]. - The complete cost structure of coal enterprises includes production costs, period expenses, and taxes, with a focus on maintaining energy security and sustainable development [21]. 2. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.91% from December 13 to December 26, while the coal index fell by 0.35%, underperforming the overall market [3][32]. 3. Market Information Tracking - As of December 24, 2025, the average price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim was reported at 695 RMB/ton, reflecting a decrease of 8 RMB/ton from December 10, 2025 [4]. - The price of coking coal at Jing Tang Port was reported at 1740 RMB/ton, an increase of 110 RMB/ton from December 12, 2025 [9]. 4. Industry Dynamics - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued guidelines to enhance the clean and efficient utilization of coal, encouraging upgrades and improvements in coal projects [10]. - The 2026 National Energy Work Conference emphasized the importance of policy support in addressing development challenges within the energy sector [10]. 5. Investment Portfolio and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with high long-term contract ratios for stable profits, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [11]. - It also highlights cyclical stocks like Yanzhou Coal and Jinkong Coal, as well as integrated coal and power companies like Xinji Energy and Huaihe Energy as potential investment opportunities [11].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has achieved an "eight consecutive days" rally, with a rise of 1.88%, while the CSI 300 increased by 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 3.90% [1][17] - The market sentiment remains bullish despite the absence of significant positive news during the rally, indicating a strong expectation for the upcoming cross-year market [1][11] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market has increased to 19,569 billion, showing a rise compared to the previous week [1][17] Historical Context - Historically, the Shanghai Composite Index has recorded "eight consecutive days" only 17 times since 2000, primarily during bull markets [2][34] - The median increase in the index following previous "eight consecutive days" has been 2.6% in the following week, 2.3% in the following month, and 6.3% over three months [2][35] - The current rally's increase of only 2.8% during the "eight consecutive days" is lower than the historical median, suggesting a higher probability of market consolidation rather than accelerated growth [2][35] Structural Analysis - The current market structure shows that small-cap indices such as the CSI 2000, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 have reached new highs, indicating a trend where small caps outperform large caps [4][11] - Key sectors that have achieved new highs include non-ferrous metals, military industry, communications, insurance, machinery, and chemicals, reflecting a "new and old coexistence" structural feature [4][11] - The report anticipates a shift in 2026 from a "new surpassing old" narrative to a "new and old coexistence" theme, with a focus on traditional industries benefiting from global pricing resources and cyclical recovery [4][11] Investment Focus - For AI technology investments, the report emphasizes a focus on core sectors with strong fundamentals, suggesting a cautious approach until significant breakthroughs in AI applications occur [5] - The traditional industries, particularly those involved in overseas expansion and global pricing resources, are expected to see profit growth in 2026, with a focus on sectors like chemicals, machinery, and electrical equipment [5] - The report highlights the recent surge in silver prices and the significant drop in the gold-silver ratio, indicating potential investment opportunities in precious metals [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the defense and military industry [5] Core Insights - The defense and military sector has shown resilience, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index during the week of December 19 to December 26, 2025, with the Shenwan Defense and Military Index rising by 6.00% [14][18] - The report highlights significant individual stock performances, with China Satellite leading with a 36.24% increase, followed by Guanglian Aviation at 32.44% [18][19] - Key announcements from companies in the sector include significant contracts and share repurchase plans, indicating active corporate strategies to enhance shareholder value and operational capacity [20] Summary by Sections 1. Defense and Military Market Review - The China Securities Military Index rose to 13,616.67 points, up 6.16%, while the China Defense Index increased to 1,816.41 points, up 5.57% during the specified week [14][15] - The Shenwan Defense and Military Index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.88%, and the CSI 300 Index, which increased by 1.95% [14][15] 2. Key Company Announcements - Lianchuang Optoelectronics announced a share pledge and repurchase plan involving a total of 319,932,200 yuan for shares held by a major shareholder [20] - Huayin Technology signed a framework agreement worth 392,105,597 yuan for the processing of aircraft engine components [20] 3. Key Industry News - France's President Macron confirmed the initiation of a new generation aircraft carrier program with an estimated cost of 10.25 billion euros [21] - RTX's Raytheon secured a $1.7 billion contract to deliver Patriot missile defense systems to Spain [21]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the biopharmaceutical industry, but it suggests a positive outlook based on upcoming catalysts and potential drug approvals. Core Insights - The biopharmaceutical sector is expected to see significant developments in 2026, with multiple domestic drugs anticipated to report key clinical data. This includes drugs from companies like Betta Pharmaceuticals, Hutchison China MediTech, and CanSino Biologics, which are expected to read out critical clinical data in 2026 [3][21]. - The report emphasizes that the long-term theme for the innovative drug sector is international expansion, with several sub-themes to focus on, including overseas business development (BD) licensing, key clinical trials, and unexpected overseas sales growth [3][18]. Summary by Sections Weekly New Drug Market Review - From December 22 to December 28, 2025, the top five gainers in the new drug sector were Dongyao Pharmaceutical (+23.15%), Beihai Kangcheng (+19.27%), Junshengtai (+16.41%), Shiyao Group (+6.95%), and Ailis (+5.78%). The top five losers were Gakos (-16.11%), Jiahe Biotech (-10.29%), Laika Pharmaceuticals (-9.33%), Yunding Xinyao (-8.98%), and Yongtai Biotech (-6.94%) [1][14]. Weekly Focused Stocks - The report suggests focusing on several stocks with high overseas expansion potential, including: 1. Companies with MNC certification and high overseas volume certainty: Sanofi, United Pharmaceuticals, and Kelun-Biotech. 2. Companies with overseas data catalysts: Betta Pharmaceuticals, Hutchison China MediTech, and InnoCare Pharma. 3. Potential heavyweights for overseas MNC licensing: Junshi Biosciences, Shiyao Group, and Yifang Biotech. 4. New innovative drug technology breakthroughs: small nucleic acids, in vivo CAR-T, fat loss and muscle gain, autoimmune CAR-T/bispecific antibodies, and gene therapy [2][18]. Weekly New Drug Approval & Acceptance Status - This week, 23 new drug or new indication applications were approved in China, and 10 new drug or new indication applications were accepted [4][19]. Weekly New Drug Clinical Application Approval & Acceptance Status - This week, 99 new drug clinical applications were approved, and 64 new drug clinical applications were accepted [5][24]. Key Domestic Market Events - Notable events include: 1. Xiansheng Zhaoming announced a global exclusive licensing agreement with Ipsen for an ADC drug, potentially worth up to $1.06 billion. 2. He Yu Pharmaceuticals received approval for its CSF-1R selective small molecule inhibitor. 3. Tongyi Pharmaceuticals announced a licensing agreement for a peptide conjugate drug for prostate cancer, with potential payments totaling around $2 billion [10]. Key Overseas Market Events - Significant overseas events include: 1. Novo Nordisk received FDA approval for a 25mg oral semaglutide tablet for weight loss. 2. Sanofi announced a cash acquisition agreement for Dynavax Technologies Corporation, valued at approximately $2.2 billion. 3. Agios Pharmaceuticals announced FDA approval for an oral PK activator for treating α or β thalassemia in adult patients [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the construction industry, indicating an expected return that will outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The 2026 fiscal policy is set to remain proactive, with a focus on increasing fiscal spending and optimizing government bond tools to enhance local financial capabilities. This is expected to support economic growth and improve the construction industry's operational conditions [18][11]. - Infrastructure investment has shown signs of recovery, with November data indicating a month-on-month improvement. The construction sector is anticipated to stabilize as policies aimed at debt reduction and "anti-involution" continue to be implemented [2][11]. - The demand for cleanroom construction is expected to rise due to increased capital expenditures in the semiconductor and cloud service sectors, driven by rapid advancements in AI technology [3][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The national fiscal work conference highlighted the achievements of 2025 and outlined the key tasks for 2026, emphasizing a more active fiscal policy to stimulate consumption and manage risks in key areas [18]. - The construction industry is expected to benefit from a combination of improved fiscal policies and a recovering investment environment, leading to marginal improvements in operational performance [2][11]. Market Performance - The construction industry saw a weekly increase of 2.26%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, with the decoration and renovation sector showing the highest growth at 11.37% [20][21]. - The overall industry valuation metrics indicate a TTM P/E ratio of 12.47 and a P/B ratio of 0.83, with several companies showing low valuations, suggesting potential investment opportunities [24][28]. Key Companies to Watch - Recommended companies include low-valuation state-owned enterprises such as China State Construction, China Communications Construction, and China Railway Construction, which are expected to benefit from improved cash flow and profitability [11][13]. - Cleanroom engineering leaders like Yaxin Integration and Shenghui Integration are highlighted for their potential growth due to increasing demand in the semiconductor sector [3][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the chemical industry [5] Core Views - The polyester chain is experiencing an upward trend, with expectations for the silicone industry to start recovering [2][10] - Supply-demand expectations are improving, particularly for PX and PTA, with no new capacity expected in 2026, leading to a tighter supply situation [2][10] - The report highlights the importance of industry collaboration and self-discipline among major manufacturers to stabilize prices and improve profitability [3][10] Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights - The PX industry has seen no new capacity additions for two consecutive years, with limited supply expected until new projects in Q4 2026 [2] - PTA has officially ended its rapid expansion phase, with no new capacity expected in 2026, and some companies are proactively reducing production [2] - The polyester filament industry is benefiting from a mature self-discipline mechanism, leading to significant price increases [3] 2. Industry Performance - The chemical sector has shown strong performance, with the industry index rising by 4.2% in the last week, outperforming major indices [24] - Year-to-date, the chemical industry index has increased by 33.6%, indicating strong recovery potential [24] 3. Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Tongkun Co., New Fengming, Hengyi Petrochemical, and Hengli Petrochemical in the polyester sector [9][21] - For the silicone sector, recommended stocks include Xinsilicon, Dongyue Silicon, and Hoshine Silicon [10][21] 4. Price and Margin Analysis - Recent price increases for PX and PTA have been noted, with PX prices reaching 7318 RMB/ton and PTA at 5040 RMB/ton, marking significant week-on-week increases [1][2] - The report anticipates that the profitability of polyester products will improve due to better supply-demand dynamics [2][3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market - A" [1] Core Insights - The artificial intelligence (AI) industrialization wave is approaching, leading to a rapid increase in demand for Artificial Intelligence Data Centers (AIDC) [4][11] - Power distribution equipment is a crucial component of AIDC and is expected to benefit significantly from the high demand in AIDC [36] - Major companies involved in the AIDC sector are highlighted, indicating potential investment opportunities [3] Summary by Sections Section 1: AI Industrialization and AIDC Demand Growth - AI is at a critical turning point for commercial deployment, driving a rapid increase in demand for intelligent computing power [4][11] - AIDC serves as the physical carrier for intelligent computing power, benefiting from the AI industrialization wave [12] - AIDC is evolving towards high energy consumption and high density, necessitating continuous upgrades in power distribution equipment [30][35] Section 2: Power Distribution Equipment in AIDC - Power distribution equipment is a vital part of AIDC, accounting for approximately 13% of initial investment costs [42] - AIDC's power supply architecture typically employs redundancy designs to ensure high reliability [43][44] - Diesel generator sets are the most common backup power solution for AIDC [56][60] - The transition from UPS to high-voltage direct current (HVDC) systems is anticipated, with HVDC becoming the mainstream architecture in the future [68][86] - The market for server power supplies is projected to exceed 100 billion, with supercapacitors and battery backup units (BBU) being key growth areas [113]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market-A" [4] Core Viewpoints - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen a significant weekly increase of 6.3%, driven by rising prices of lithium, copper, gold, and silver, although stock prices remain stagnant compared to commodity price increases. The market anticipates potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could benefit non-ferrous metals as they are expected to gain from overseas inflation [1] - The report expresses optimism about the valuation recovery potential in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly for lithium, copper, silver, aluminum, tin, rare earths, antimony, cobalt, tantalum, and uranium [1] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have increased, with COMEX gold at $4540.1 per ounce (+4.10%) and silver at $79.0 per ounce (+18.14%). The market's expectations for interest rate cuts have contributed to this rise, alongside strong demand from central banks and ETFs [2] - Recommended stocks include Shandong Gold, Shandong International, China Gold, Chifeng Gold, and Hunan Gold [2] Industrial Metals - Copper prices have risen, with LME copper at $12133.0 per ton (+3.46%) and SHFE copper at ¥98600 per ton (+6.53%). Supply constraints and reduced processing fees are influencing the market, while demand from downstream industries is currently subdued [3] - Recommended stocks include Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, Western Mining, HeSteel Resources, Jiangxi Copper, Tongling Nonferrous, and Yunnan Copper [3] Aluminum - Aluminum prices have shown a slight increase, with LME aluminum at $2956.5 per ton (+1.35%) and SHFE aluminum at ¥22335.0 per ton (+1.66%). The macroeconomic environment and liquidity are supporting prices, despite a trend towards seasonal weakness in demand [8] Tin - Tin prices have seen fluctuations, with SHFE tin at ¥337560 per ton (-0.4%). Supply remains tight, and concerns about imports from key regions persist, while demand is expected to rise due to the electronics sector [9] Energy Metals - Lithium prices have surged, with carbonate lithium futures at ¥130520 per ton (+17.2%). The market anticipates increased demand for energy storage and power batteries, with a positive outlook for lithium prices in 2026 [10] - Recommended stocks include Dazhong Mining, Shengxin Lithium Energy, Zhongmin Resources, Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, Tianhua New Energy, Yahua Group, and Yongxing Materials [10] Strategic Metals - Rare earth prices are showing mixed trends, with praseodymium and neodymium oxide at ¥595500 and ¥607500 per ton, respectively. The approval of export licenses may boost demand [13] - Recommended stocks include Huahong Technology, China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, Shenghe Resources, and Guangsheng Nonferrous [13]

杨勇 分析师 2025 年 12 月 28 日 或继续上行，元旦可期 金融工程定期报告 证券研究报告 SAC 执业证书编号：S1450518010002 yangyong1@essence.com.cn 相关报告 | 企稳回升，反弹已在路上 | 2025-12-21 | | --- | --- | | 回踩结束，多头信号再现 | 2025-12-13 | | 向上趋势或有改善迹象 | 2025-12-07 | | 震荡偏积极-定量视角下的 | 2025-11-30 | | 收官之战 | | | 缠论视角下或类似于 2017 | 2025-11-23 | | 年 11 月底 12 月初 | | 本期要点：或继续上行，元旦可期 上周我们认为市场已企稳回升，反弹趋势正在展开。事后来看，近期 大盘持续上涨，走出八连阳的强势上升形态，不仅符合模型的多头预 期，甚至略超预期。 八连阳走势在历史上较为少见，叠加当前大盘再次临近 4000 点整数 关口，部分投资者开始关注短期是否已出现超涨风险。然而我们多次 强调，本轮上涨之前市场已历经较长时间调整，ABC 浪结构清晰完整， 行业分歧度也已降至明显偏低水平，各板块均经历了较为 ...