2025 年 04 月 03 日 长虹美菱(000521.SZ) 外销表现亮眼，分红率提升 长虹美菱公布 2024 年年报。公司 2024 年实现收入 286.0 亿元， YoY+17.3%；实现归母净利润 7.0 亿元，YoY-5.0%；实现扣非归母 净利润 6.9 亿元，YoY-7.3%。经折算，公司 2024Q4 实现收入 58.3 亿元；实现归母净利润 1.7 亿元；实现扣非归母净利润 1.8 亿元 （因口径调整，同比增长数据无法计算）。我们认为，Q4 长虹美菱 外销持续快速增长，内销受以旧换新政策有效提振。 2024 年外销表现亮眼，内销稳步提升：2024 年长虹美菱外销、 内销收入 YoY+34.7%、+9.4%。拉美、中东市场空调需求较好，公 司加快拓展新市场、新客户，2024 年外销收入持续高增长。国内 以旧换新补贴政策刺激白电更新需求释放，公司内销表现平稳。 据产业在线数据显示，Q4 长虹空调内、外销出货量 YoY+231.7%、 +147.9%，美菱冰箱内、外销出货量 YoY+12.3%、+10.4%。我们推 断 Q4 公司空调业务内外销高速增长，冰洗业务内外销快速提升。 展望后续，公司持 ...

2025 年 04 月 03 日 爱玛科技(603529.SH) 景气回升，2024Q4、2025Q1 业绩快速增长 事件：公司发布 2024 年业绩快报及 2025 年一季度业绩预告。 公司 2024 年实现收入 216.1 亿元，YoY+2.7%，实现归母净利润 19.9 亿元，YoY+5.7%；经折算，公司 2024Q4 单季度实现收入 41.4 亿元，YoY+15.7%，实现归母净利润 4.3 亿元，YoY+34.2%。预计 公司 2025 年一季度实现归母净利润 6.0 亿元，YoY+25.1%。公司 作为行业头部企业，持续优化产品结构，盈利能力有望提升。在 国补以及新国标的带动下，我们看好公司 2025 年收入加速增长。 公司 Q4 收入加速增长：公司 Q4 单季度收入增速环比 Q3+20.7pct。我们认为主要因为：1）3C 认证切换完成，渠道提货 积极性有所提升；2）爱玛作为行业头部企业，应对标准切换的能 力领先。展望 2025 年，我们认为公司收入有望加速增长，因为： 1）以旧换新补贴效果逐渐强化，根据商务部数据，2025 年年初至 2 月 28 日电动自行车以旧换新累计换购 101.9 万 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a significant increase in self-operated income, with a year-on-year growth of 117% in 2024, reaching 7.8 billion yuan [3]. - The company's wealth management advantages remain solid, with its public fund management continuing to lead the industry [4]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated to be 1.38 yuan, 1.59 yuan, and 1.80 yuan respectively [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported total operating revenue of 27.2 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.74%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.6 billion yuan, up 38.11% year-on-year [1]. - The weighted average return on equity (ROE) was 7.44%, an increase of 1.78 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The breakdown of net income by business segment for 2024 includes brokerage at 6.7 billion yuan, investment banking at 800 million yuan, asset management at 6.9 billion yuan, credit at 2.3 billion yuan, and self-operated business at 7.8 billion yuan [1]. Business Segment Performance - Brokerage: The company achieved a stock trading volume of 23.95 trillion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 28.98% [2]. - Investment Banking: The company completed three A-share IPOs with a total underwriting amount of 800 million yuan, and five refinancing projects totaling 7.9 billion yuan, with declines of 60% and 45% respectively compared to the previous year [2]. - Asset Management: The total asset management scale reached 253.5 billion yuan by the end of 2024, a 24% increase year-on-year [2]. - Margin Financing: The margin financing business scale was 103.7 billion yuan, up 17% year-on-year, with a market share of 5.56% [3].

2025 年 04 月 03 日 华兰生物(002007.SZ) 血制品全年稳健，流感疫苗短期承压 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报。2024 年，公司实现营业收入 43.79 亿元，同比下降 18.02%；归母净利润 10.88 亿元，同比下降 26.57%； 扣非归母净利润 9.81 亿元，同比下降 22.56%。Q4 单季度，公司实现 营业收入 8.89 亿元，同比下降 37.82%；归母净利润 1.64 亿元，同 比下降 60.37%；扣非归母净利润 1.64 亿元，同比下降 54.69%。 血制品业务：收入稳健增长，采浆量创新高。2024 年公司血液制品 业务实现营业收入 32.46 亿元/+10.91%；其中白蛋白实现营业收入 12.29 亿元/+16.27%，静丙实现营业收入 9.29 亿元/+9.94%，其他血 液制品实现营业收入 10.88 亿元/+6.19%。在采浆方面,2024 年公司 积极推进单采血浆站的建设工作，邓州浆站、襄城浆站、杞县浆站、 巫山浆站于 2 月至 12 月间陆续取得采浆许可证并开始采浆；公司 8 月在重庆市获批设置新建丰都县单采血浆站，目前正在按计划开展建 设工作。 ...

1）装机规模高增：根据金风科技官网，2024 年中国风电装机 85.5GW，其中海风 6.1GW；根据界面新闻报导，风能专委会预测 2025 年中国风电装机 105-115GW，其中海风 10-15GW；根据我们 测算，对应增速分别为+22.8%～34.5%、+63.9%～145.9%。风电行 业，尤其是海上风电 2025 年景气度预计显著复苏，带动零部件端 需求旺盛、公司产能利用率提升。 2）价格边际回升：根据金风科技官网，2024 年 8 月国内风机投 标均价触底，跌破 1400 元/kW；随后 8-12 月价格触底反弹，于 1520～1540 元/kW 企稳。此外，根据公司业绩预告，受益于风电 行业需求增加与招标价格止跌企稳，公司铸造产品售价有所提升， 叠加产能释放带来的规模效益、公司盈利能力逐步改善。 "锻件+铸件"双轮驱动，增长动能强劲向上。①锻件方面，公 司作为全球风电锻造主轴的龙头企业，产品覆盖 1.5～9.5MW 全系 列锻造主轴，具备丰富的技术积累、生产经验和全流程的加工工 艺，针对大兆瓦锻造主轴，公司采用空心锻造的技术提高材料成 材率及产能利用率，市场占有率持续提升；②铸件方面，公司积 极 ...

2025 年 04 月 02 日 中国中冶(601618.SH) 经营性现金流同比改善，海外新签订单 同比高增 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报，营业收入 5520.25 亿元（yoy- 12.91%），归母净利润 67.46 亿元（yoy-22.20%）；单四季度，营 业收入 1394.07 亿元（-16.29%），归母净利润-0.85 亿元（yoy- 117.43%）。拟按照每 10 股派息 0.56 元（含税），现金分红占 2024 年归母净利润的比例为 17.20%。 整体营收增长承压，海外营收增长稳健。 2024 年，公司实现营业收入 5520.25 亿元（yoy-12.91%），Q1-Q4 各季度公司营收增速分别为 3.81%、-21.64%、-14.37%和-16.29%， 公司整体营收增长承压，主要受钢铁行业需求下降、建筑行业增 长乏力叠加地产行业深度调整等外部影响，同时公司自身转型升 级带来业务结构调整等因素影响所致。分业务看，公司各板块营 收及增速分别为：工程承包 5014.50 亿元（yoy-14.35%）、特色业 务381.66亿元（yoy-1.63%）、综合地产187.53亿元（yo ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company with a 6-month target price of 71.76 HKD [5][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.26 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.1%, and a narrowed net loss of 269 million, a reduction of 70.4% compared to the previous year [1][3]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the "Xian Zhi AI" platform, which generated 3.68 billion in revenue, reflecting a 46.7% increase and accounting for 69.88% of total revenue [1][3]. - The company has strategically upgraded to "Paradigm Group," focusing on both B-end and C-end business segments, with the latter expected to contribute to revenue growth through partnerships in consumer electronics [3][2]. Financial Performance - The gross margin for 2024 was 42.76%, a decrease of 4.41 percentage points, attributed to increased hardware delivery in the AI platform [1]. - The company has demonstrated strong cost control, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios decreasing by 4.96, 4.46, and 0.83 percentage points, respectively [1]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 6.62 billion, 7.89 billion, and 9.20 billion, respectively, with expected net profits turning positive in 2025 [3][8]. Business Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing customer stickiness through the AI Agent in its B-end services, optimizing key capabilities, and exploring applications in various sectors [2]. - The introduction of the new consumer electronics business segment aims to leverage AI capabilities in products like smart headphones and smartwatches, potentially increasing revenue streams [3][2]. - The company has established a solid customer base, with 161 benchmark clients contributing significantly to revenue, showing a net income growth rate of 110% per client [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 39.80 CNY per share, maintaining the rating [4]. Core Views - The March sales figures met expectations, with a total wholesale volume of 98,000 units, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2% but a month-on-month increase of 26% [1][2]. - The decline in year-on-year sales is attributed to fewer new car launches in 2024, while the month-on-month growth is driven by recovering terminal demand and the launch of new models like the Tank 300 [2]. - The company is entering a new growth phase with the launch of several new models, which is expected to positively impact sales [3]. Sales Performance - In March, the company sold 25,000 new energy vehicles, a month-on-month increase of 66% and a year-on-year increase of 15%, while fuel vehicle sales were 73,000 units, showing a month-on-month increase of 16% but a year-on-year decrease of 7% [2]. - The Tank model sold 17,000 units in March, with a year-on-year decrease of 8% but a month-on-month increase of 48%, primarily due to the launch of the 2025 Tank 300 [2]. - The Haval brand sold 53,000 units in March, with a year-on-year decrease of 2% but a month-on-month increase of 22% [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see an upward sales trend as new models are launched, including the second-generation Xiaolong MAX and the new Gaoshan, which are anticipated to contribute to sales growth [3]. - The Hi4Z technology is expected to enhance the Tank model's appeal, potentially expanding its market reach and profitability [3]. - The company has a diverse product lineup and strong technological reserves, which are expected to drive growth in both domestic and export markets [10]. Financial Projections - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 167.2 billion CNY, 188.6 billion CNY, and 213.6 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 13.1, 11.6, and 10.2 times [10][11]. - The company's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projected figures of 2,689 billion CNY in 2025 and 3,107.1 billion CNY in 2026 [11]. Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 219 billion CNY and a circulating market capitalization of about 158 billion CNY [4]. - The stock price as of April 2, 2025, was 25.58 CNY, indicating potential upside based on the target price [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company with a 6-month target price of 12.07 CNY [7]. Core Views - The company has experienced a decline in chicken seedling sales in 2024, but Q4 saw a significant recovery in prices, contributing positively to profits. The total revenue for 2024 was 3.136 billion CNY, down 2.76% year-on-year, while net profit was 504 million CNY, down 6.84% year-on-year. In Q4 alone, revenue reached 982 million CNY, up 73.41% year-on-year, and net profit was 203 million CNY, up 242.33% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company is expected to see an increase in white feather chicken sales in 2025, with a projected growth in revenue from the white feather chicken business. The company sold 586 million white feather chicken seedlings in 2024, a decrease of 9.3% year-on-year, generating sales revenue of 2.385 billion CNY, also down 9.6% year-on-year [2]. - The company faces challenges due to outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in major breeding regions, which have led to a significant reduction in the supply of grandparent stock. In early 2025, the company imported 36,000 sets of grandparent chickens from France to alleviate supply issues [3]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 4.010 billion CNY, 4.340 billion CNY, and 4.520 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.9%, 8.2%, and 4.1% [4]. - Net profit is expected to reach 668 million CNY, 763 million CNY, and 772 million CNY for the same years, with growth rates of 32.5%, 14.2%, and 1.2% respectively [4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.60 CNY, 0.69 CNY, and 0.70 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5].

2025 年 04 月 01 日 农林牧渔 养殖板块：生猪养殖建议关注【温氏股份】、【牧原股份】、【神农 集团】；白羽鸡板块建议关注【圣农发展】、【益生股份】、【民和 股份】、【仙坛股份】。 禽流感影响引种持续受限，关注白羽鸡 父母代价格 生猪养殖：短期内供需博弈，需关注体重端口反馈 价格端：本周生猪均价 14.66 元/kg，周环比+0.07%，两周环比+0.31%； 仔猪价格 647 元/头，周环比+2.70%，两周环比+3.50%。根据 iFinD 数据，本周猪肉批发价格 20.94 元/kg，周环比+0.96%。 供给端：本周生猪日均屠宰量为 16.40 万头，周环比变动-0.02%。 周观点：据涌益咨询显示，本周全国均维持窄幅波动，区域周均价表 现为北涨南降。北方养殖主体对价格下跌抵抗意愿较强，主要受益于 前期二育入场意愿维持，承接市场卖压。南方二育表现弱势，且随着 气温提升后的肥标价差收窄，散户及二育出栏意愿较强，叠加消费端 表现低迷，周内价格弱势走低。短期供需对抗激烈，现阶段需求端无 强力支撑，供应端大幅增量预期亦较薄弱，预期猪价缺乏持续性涨跌 带动。但通过体重端口反馈，体重增加仍是市场产能延后 ...