2025 年 05 月 20 日 传媒 Agent 初具技术雏形，重点关注三大演 化方向 AGI 正迈向自主行动阶段，指向 Agent、具身智能。人工智能技 术经过几轮迭代，已经基本迈过"感知-思考"的应用临界点，正 在逐步实现"自主行动"的发展阶段，根据应用场景划分为 Agent、 具身智能两个大方向。我们曾以人形机器人为切入点探讨过具身 智能相关的技术原理、发展路径、主要参与者等，本篇将聚焦于 Agent 方向，梳理其技术构成、演进阶段等。 证券研究报告 投资评级 领先大市-A 维持评级 | | | 2023 年至今国内外模型迭代速度非常快，推动了 Agent 产品感 知、规划、记忆能力提升：1）GPT4、4o 模型从单一文本走向多模 态，模型感知能力更全面；2）o1 通过后训练增强推理能力，模型 推理能力实现突破；3）上下文窗口扩展至 100 万 token，模型记 忆能力提升，将更了解用户；4）模型使用成本大幅下降，试错成 本下降，2025 年 DeepSeek 模型的报价为 0.25-0.5 元/百万 token， 约为 GPT-4o 的 1/7。 使用工具的能力是 LLM 模型与 Agent 的最 ...

2025 年 05 月 20 日 房地产 4 月地产季节性回落 销售规模环比回落 2025 年 1 至 4 月，商品房销售面积 2.8 亿㎡（YoY-2.8%），商品房销 售额 2.7 万亿（YoY-3.2%），累计销售均价 9565.8 元/㎡（YoY-0.3%）； 4 月当月，销售面积 0.6 亿㎡（YoY-2.1%），销售额 0.6 万亿（YoY- 6.7%），4 月销售环比 3 月回落明显。 经历一季度需求复苏带动的销售改善后，4 月销售环比季节性回落显 著，商品房销售面积及销售金额 4 月单月环比回落幅度在 40%左右， 与近三年同期环比回落幅度接近。 施工活动仍待改善 2025 年 1 至 4 月，全国商品房新开工面积 1.8 亿㎡（YoY-23.8%）， 竣工面积 1.6 亿㎡（YoY-16.9%），施工面积 62 亿㎡（YoY-9.7%）；单 月层面，新开工面积 0.5 亿㎡（YoY-22.1%），竣工面积 0.3 亿㎡（YoY- 27.9%），降幅相较于 3 月进一步扩大。 2025 年以来，在房地产行业信用风险收敛的环境下，行业在持续经 历供给收缩，等待需求复苏带动房价进一步企稳的过程。4 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 8.68 CNY, based on a 19x PE for 2025 [4][9][13]. Core Insights - The company has shown a significant recovery in profitability in Q1 2025, with a net profit of 0.59 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 196.22% [1][3]. - The company continues to pursue a global strategy, achieving a revenue of 84.49 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 5.94%, despite challenging economic conditions [2][9]. - The European market has been a standout performer, with overseas revenue reaching 67.50 billion CNY in 2024, up 6.68% year-on-year, and the company expects continued growth in this region [2][8]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company's revenue from mattress sales was 44.15 billion CNY, up 10.95% year-on-year, while other product lines showed mixed results [2][10]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 36.85%, a decrease of 1.50 percentage points year-on-year, but improved to 39.37% in Q1 2025 [3][11]. - The company anticipates revenue growth of 11.45%, 11.47%, and 10.30% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits projected to reach 2.61 billion CNY in 2025 [9][12][13]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic memory foam mattress market, focusing on global capacity expansion and brand internationalization [9][10]. - The impact of U.S. tariffs has been limited, and the company is leveraging its local production capabilities in the U.S. to enhance market share [8][9]. - The company plans to strengthen regional market development and channel construction to enhance competitiveness and drive stable growth in its ODM business [8][9].

袁方1 张端怡（联系人）2魏薇（联系人）3 2025 年 05 月 19 日 内容提要 国投证券宏观定期报告 周度经济观察 ————关税影响体现，后续风险可控 4 月工业增加值同比、PPI 环比出现走弱，同时投资、消费、出口出现小幅 下滑，这些数据表明受对等关税的影响，我国总需求出现收缩。 不过考虑到关税谈判的积极进展、与稳增长政策的出台，预计 5 月、6 月经 济减速的幅度或许相对温和，经济失速的风险可控。 近期资金利率出现抬升，部分投资者担心 1 月中旬局面的重现。不过当前经 济面临的下行压力大于年初、汇率贬值的压力弱于当时、同时债券市场收益率的 中枢也更高。因此从各个维度来讲，央行重新大幅收紧资金的概率似乎有限。 风险提示：（1）地缘政治风险 （2）政策出台超预期 本报告版权属于国投证券股份有限公司，各项声明请参见报告尾页。 1宏观团队负责人，yuanfang@essence.com.cn，S1450520080004 2联系人，zhangdy2@essence.com.cn，S1450123040002 3联系人，weiwei2@essence.com.cn，S1450123100017 第 1 页， ...

2025 年 05 月 19 日 农林牧渔 气温升高消费增幅受限，猪价或震荡偏 弱 生猪养殖：气温升高消费增幅受限，猪价或震荡偏弱 价格端：本周生猪均价 14.77 元/kg，周环比-0.27%，两周环比-0.07%； 仔猪价格 630 元/头，周环比-2.63%，两周环比-1.47%。根据 iFinD 数据，本周猪肉批发价格 20.84 元/kg，周环比+0.07%。 供给端：本周生猪日均屠宰量为 16.91 万头，周环比变动-2.49%。 周观点：周内全国均价震荡偏弱，整体来看，本周终端需求表现平淡， 屠企白条反馈走货难度较强，维持对价格的下压操作，可供应端口尚 未呈现明显节奏加快表现，从而传导至屠企端口竞价较为谨慎，所以 本周日间价格波动幅度不大。短期来看，气温升高拖累消费整体增幅 空间受限，不过从供给端口来看，头部集团、放养公司以及二次育肥， 均存在一定增量空间，所以供需对抗预期来看，供给端议价话语权或 有下降，所以预计近期行情维持偏弱运行。 家禽养殖：白羽肉鸡久稳小跌，分割品强硬挺价 周观点：据我的钢铁网显示，本周种蛋价格偏弱势运行为主。受鸡苗 价格弱势影响，种蛋市场交投不快，企业上孵意愿偏弱，且种 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 8.68 CNY, based on a 19x PE for 2025 [4][9][13]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 8.449 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.94%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -151 million CNY, a decline of 242.04% year-on-year [2][9]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.043 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 12.31%, and a net profit of 59 million CNY, up 196.22% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company is focusing on global capacity and brand internationalization, with significant performance in the European market, which has seen double-digit growth for two consecutive years [2][9]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's mattress business generated 4.415 billion CNY in 2024, growing by 10.95% year-on-year, while the bedding business saw a decline of 4.08% to 596 million CNY [2][10]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 36.85%, down 1.50 percentage points year-on-year, but improved to 39.37% in Q1 2025, an increase of 0.84 percentage points [3][7]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was -2.12%, with a significant recovery to 2.59% in Q1 2025 [7][9]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading domestic memory foam mattress brand, benefiting from its global production layout and brand internationalization strategy [9][11]. - The impact of U.S. tariffs has been limited, and the company is leveraging its local production advantages in the U.S. to capture market share [8][9]. - Future revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 9.416 billion CNY, 10.497 billion CNY, and 11.578 billion CNY, with expected growth rates of 11.45%, 11.47%, and 10.30% respectively [10][12].

2025 年 05 月 19 日 建筑 专项债发行持续高位，行业基本面有望 改善 本周投资建议： 行业周报 证券研究报告 投资评级 领先大市-B 维持评级 | | 目标价（元） | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | 首选股票 | | | 行业表现 资料来源：Wind 资讯 升幅% 1M 3M 12M 相对收益 0.4 0.4 -2.6 绝对收益 3.4 -0.8 4.2 董文静 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1450522030004 dongwj@essence.com.cn 陈依凡 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1450524080001 chenyf4@essence.com.cn 相关报告 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 建筑 沪深300 央行发布 4 月金融统计数据，4 月末，广义货币(M2)余额 325.17 万 亿元（yoy+8%）；狭义货币(M1)余额 109.14 万亿元（yoy+1.5%）； 社会融资规模存量为 424.0 万亿元（yoy+8.7%）。1-4 月社会融资规 模增 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy-A" investment rating [4][5]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leading domestic ADAS chip manufacturer, focusing on high-level intelligent driving solutions, with significant growth potential driven by the increasing demand for advanced driving assistance systems [1][2]. - The market for intelligent driving chips and algorithms in China is projected to exceed 60 billion RMB by 2030, with a notable shift towards higher-level autonomous driving features [2][39]. - The company has successfully established a strong customer base and competitive advantages through its strategic focus on local service and cost-effectiveness, enabling it to capture a leading market share in the domestic passenger vehicle intelligent driving chip sector [3][13]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has evolved into a leading player in the domestic ADAS chip market since its establishment in 2015, focusing exclusively on intelligent driving since 2019 [1][13]. - By the end of 2024, the company is expected to have shipped over 7 million units of its Journey series chips, achieving a market share of 33.97% in the domestic passenger vehicle intelligent driving chip market [1][13]. Market Potential - The penetration rate of L2 ADAS is nearing its ceiling, while the mid-to-high-level autonomous driving market presents new growth opportunities [2][39]. - The intelligent driving chip market in China is projected to reach approximately 20 billion RMB by 2025 and 50 billion RMB by 2030, with urban NOA chip market space estimated at 150 billion RMB in 2025 and 462 billion RMB in 2030 [2][39]. Competitive Landscape - The company is expected to become a leading third-party high-level intelligent driving solution provider, leveraging its strong strategic and algorithmic capabilities [3][39]. - The competitive landscape is shifting as traditional manufacturers show varying levels of willingness to develop in-house solutions, creating opportunities for the company to expand its market presence [3][39]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 35.2 billion RMB in 2025, 54.8 billion RMB in 2026, and 80.2 billion RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 47.6%, 55.8%, and 46.3% respectively [4][9]. - The target market capitalization for the company is set at 105.5 billion RMB based on a 30x price-to-sales ratio for 2025 [4][8].

2025 年 05 月 18 日 生物医药Ⅱ 新药周观点：脓毒症治疗迎来新突破， 远大医药 STC3141 中国 2 期成功 本周新药行情回顾： 2025 年 5 月 12 日-2025 年 5 月 16 日，新药板块涨幅前 5 企业：君 圣泰（19.78%）、德琪医药（18.34%）、嘉和生物（14.48%）、科济 药业（14.46%）、复宏汉霖（12.34%）；跌幅前 5 企业：歌礼制药（- 17.10%）、康宁杰瑞（-8.72%）、云顶新耀（-7.77%）、泽璟制药（- 7.18%）、创胜集团（-6.96%）。 本周新药行业重点分析： 脓毒症治疗存在严重未满足临床需求，近日远大医药宣布其开发的全 球创新药物 STC3141 在中国开展的用于治疗脓毒症的 II 期临床研究 成功达到临床终点，标志着脓毒症治疗迎来新的突破。 脓毒症(sepsis)是感染引起宿主反应失调,导致危及生命的器官功能 损害的症候群,是一个高病死率的临床综合征。根据 WHO 的数据，2017 年全球估计有 4890 万例脓毒症病例和 1100 万例脓毒症死亡病例。 当前脓毒症治疗主要以对症治疗为主，主要包括药物治疗（抗生素、 血管加压 ...

盈利能力方面，24 年公司毛利率为 18.64%，同比下降 5.15pct；24Q4 公司毛利率为18.91%，同比下降4.20pct。25Q1公司毛利率为16.27%， 同比下降 8.53pct。24 年公司毛利率下降主要系期间海运费大幅上涨 一段时期。期间费用方面，24 年公司期间费用率为 13.38%，同比下 降 2.99pct ，销售 / 管 理 / 研 发 / 财 务 费 用 率 分 别 为 2025 年 05 月 18 日 恒林股份(603661.SH) 利润短期承压， 跨境电商顺利扩张 事件：恒林股份发布 2024 年年度报告和 2025 年一季报。24 年 公司实现营业收入 110.29 亿元，同比增长 34.59%；归母净利润 2.63 亿元，同比下降 0.02%；扣非后归母净利润 2.81 亿元，同比 增长 19.45%。24Q4 公司实现营业收入 32.18 亿元，同比增长 33.03%；归母净利润-0.03 亿元，同比增长 97.16%；扣非后归母 净利润 0.16 亿元，同比增长 115.81%。25Q1 公司实现营业收入 26.54 亿元，同比增长 12.74%；归母净利润 0.5 ...