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新药周观点:Biotech2024年报总结,合计归母净利润有望2026年扭亏
Guotou Securities· 2025-05-11 13:25
Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" with a rating of A [5] Core Insights - The domestic biotech innovation drug companies are gradually entering a commercialization phase, with losses narrowing significantly. The total operating revenue for 69 A-share and Hong Kong-listed biotech companies reached 92.43 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 36% [2][20] - The overall net profit attributable to the parent company for these biotech companies was -19.36 billion yuan in 2024, a substantial reduction from -32.58 billion yuan in 2023, indicating a trend of reducing losses by over 10 billion yuan annually since 2021. It is projected that these companies may turn profitable by 2026 [3][25] - Research and development expenses for these companies decreased by 5% year-on-year to 46.55 billion yuan in 2024, suggesting a slowdown in R&D investment due to the impact of the financing environment and the already high base of R&D costs [4][26] - Sales expenses increased to 32.13 billion yuan in 2024, with a sales expense ratio of 35%, which has slightly declined compared to 2023 [4][30] - The total cash reserves of these biotech companies were 81.87 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 13% year-on-year, although core biotech companies maintain sufficient cash reserves [10][31] Summary by Sections Weekly New Drug Market Review - From May 5 to May 9, 2025, the top five companies in the new drug sector by stock price increase were Junshengtai (48.89%), Haichuang Pharmaceutical (22.76%), Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (8.98%), Keji Pharmaceutical (5.90%), and Hengrui Medicine (3.35%). The top five companies by decline were Fuhong Hanlin (-12.64%), Kanuo Pharmaceutical (-12.40%), Boan Biotechnology (-11.77%), Lepu Biopharma (-11.09%), and Yongtai Biotechnology (-9.37%) [1][15] Weekly New Drug Industry Analysis - The report analyzed the operating revenue, net profit, R&D expenses, sales expenses, and cash reserves of 69 A-share and Hong Kong-listed biotech companies from 2018 to 2024, indicating a positive trend in commercialization and revenue growth [2][20] Weekly New Drug Approval & Acceptance Status - Ten new drug or new indication applications were approved this week, including products from Qingpu Biotechnology, Lijun Microball, and others. Additionally, three new drug applications were accepted, including those from Hengrui Medicine and CSL Behring [11][36]
新药周观点:Biotech2024年报总结,合计归母净利润有望2026年扭亏-20250511
Guotou Securities· 2025-05-11 12:33
Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [5] Core Insights - The domestic biotech innovation drug companies are gradually entering a commercialization phase, with losses narrowing significantly. The total net profit attributable to the parent company for 69 A-share and Hong Kong-listed biotech companies is expected to turn positive by 2026, following a trend of reducing losses by over 100 billion yuan annually since 2021 [3][25]. Summary by Sections Weekly New Drug Market Review - From May 5 to May 9, 2025, the top five companies in the new drug sector by stock price increase were Junsheng Tai (48.89%), Haichuang Pharmaceutical (22.76%), Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (8.98%), Keji Pharmaceutical (5.90%), and Heng Rui Pharmaceutical (3.35%). The top five companies by stock price decrease were Fuhong Hanlin (-12.64%), Kanuo Pharmaceutical (-12.40%), Boan Biotechnology (-11.77%), Lepu Biopharma (-11.09%), and Yongtai Biopharma (-9.37%) [1][15]. Weekly New Drug Industry Analysis - In 2024, the 69 A-share and Hong Kong-listed biotech companies achieved a total operating revenue of 92.43 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 36%. The number of companies with revenue exceeding 100 million yuan increased to 50, a 22% year-on-year growth [2][20]. Net Profit Analysis - The total net profit attributable to the parent company for the 69 biotech companies was -19.36 billion yuan in 2024, a significant improvement from -32.58 billion yuan in 2023. This trend is expected to continue, with projections indicating a return to profitability by 2026 [3][25]. Research and Development Expenses - The total R&D expenses for the 69 biotech companies in 2024 were 46.55 billion yuan, a decrease of 5% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in R&D investment due to the impact of the financing environment and the already high base of R&D expenses [4][26]. Sales Expenses - The total sales expenses for the 69 biotech companies reached 32.13 billion yuan in 2024, with a sales expense ratio of 35%, which has decreased compared to 2023 [4][30]. Cash Reserves - The total cash reserves for the 69 biotech companies were 81.87 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 13% year-on-year. Despite this decline, core biotech companies maintain sufficient cash reserves, with 23 companies having cash reserves exceeding 1 billion yuan [10][31]. New Drug Approval and Acceptance - In the past week, 10 new drug or new indication applications were approved, and 3 applications were accepted. Notable approvals include Meloxicam injection and various monoclonal antibodies [11][36].
黄金坑成功兑现:后续是高低结构再平衡
Guotou Securities· 2025-05-11 11:01
2025 年 05 月 11 日 黄金坑成功兑现:后续是高低结构再平衡 本周上证指数涨 1.92%回升至 3350 附近,沪深 300 涨 2.00%,创业板指涨 3.27%,所有一级行业均实现上涨。自我们国投策略团队 4 月 7 号《这是一个 "黄金坑"!》提出"黄金坑",从 4 月初至 4 月中旬"坑底明确"到"爬坑", 黄金坑获得阶段性验证;到上证综指回到清明节前水平"迎接出坑",可以明确 地说:本轮"黄金坑"基本符合我们的判断。对于后续大盘指数预判,我们反复 强调:大盘指数会转入"震荡市"思维,对应"强预期、弱现实"定价状态,但 没有明显"二次探底"风险,在这个阶段安心做结构,好好找α是可以的。 事实上,市场在此期间对于"二次探底"仍有诸多探讨,但我们认为"二次探底" 的促发因素在于美元指数的意外走升,眼下美元指数大致在 100 附近波动,"弱 美元"底色并未改变,意味着由美向非美资产的回摆过程依然是全球资产定价 的底层逻辑。同时,市场进一步大幅向上的重要制约是国内基本面充满韧性却 存在环比走弱压力。目前,可以看到 1-3 月全国财政支出增速进一步扩张到 4.2% (前值 3.4%),但央地财政支出增 ...
中芯、华虹发布Q1业绩,欧盟芯片法案升级
Guotou Securities· 2025-05-11 10:05
2025 年 5 月 11 日 电子 中芯&华虹发布 Q1 业绩,欧盟芯片法案升 级 5 月 8 日,中芯国际&华虹半导体发布 2025 年一季报 中芯国际 25Q1 实现营业收入 163.01 亿元,同比+29.44%;归母净 利润 13.56 亿元,同比+166.5%;基本每股收益 0.17 元,同比 +183.33%;毛利率 23.1%,同比+8.91 个百分点。25Q2 公司给出指 引,收入环比下降 4%-6%,毛利率 18%-20%。华虹半导体 25Q1 实 现营业收入 5.41 亿美元,同比+17.6%,环比+0.3%;毛利率 9.2%, 同比+2.8 个百分点,环比-2.2 个百分点。25Q2 公司给出指引,收 入约 5.5-5.7 亿美元,毛利率 7%-9%。 战略迭代欧盟推进芯片法案 2.0 修订,强化本土半导体产业 欧盟推进芯片法案 2.0 修订。2022 年欧盟通过《芯片法案》,计划 投入 430 亿欧元,目标在 2030 年将全球半导体市场份额从 10%提 升至 20%,并实现 2 纳米及以下先进制程的本土化生产。受资金、 技术、原材料及能源成本限制,欧洲审计院预计 2030 年其市场 ...
本期结构重于仓位,继续关注先进制造
Guotou Securities· 2025-05-11 05:05
结构上,我们建议继续关注先进制造行业的机会,主要基于两点考虑, 一个是行业四轮驱动模型发出了相关行业的机会提示信号,另一个是 先进制造行业的成交金额占比有从过去两年的低点企稳回升的迹象, 而且这一比例并没有进入过热区间,应该不太可能出现快速大涨之后 的踩踏风险。具体行业上,模型建议继续关注通信、机械设备、国防 军工、家用电器等板块的潜在机会。 考虑到上周五军工行业出现了明显的调整,但因为印巴冲突周末军工 板块的关注度特别高,我们可以从军工板块相对于市场整体的相对性 价比来做一个简单的评估。若将军工指数收盘价除以 Wind 偏股混合 型基金指数的收盘价,可以看到该比值处于过去 10 年来的底部,而 且从历史规律来看,军工板块往往有望在一轮行情的末端表现出现明 显的超额收益。因此,无论从历史经验、基本面还是从事件驱动的逻 辑看,都有望驱动军工板块在当前的震荡行情下表现出不错的超额收 益机会。 风险提示:根据历史数据构建的模型在市场变化时可能失效。 金融工程定期报告 证券研究报告 2025 年 05 月 11 日 结构重于仓位,继续关注先进制造 本期要点:结构重于仓位,继续关注先进制造 上期提到,五月份的市场表现或 ...
好莱客:整装持续向好,开拓智能家居新赛道-20250509
Guotou Securities· 2025-05-09 10:50
2025 年 05 月 09 日 好莱客(603898.SH) 事件:公司发布 2024 年年度报告和 2025 年一季报。24 年公司 实现营业收入 19.10 亿元,同比下降 15.69%;归母净利润 0.81 亿元,同比下降 62.93%;扣非后归母净利润 0.52 亿元,同比下 降 67.18%。24Q4 公司实现营业收入 4.65 亿元,同比下降 27.03%; 归母净利润-0.10 亿元,同比下降 126.73%;扣非后归母净利润- 0.13 亿元,同比下降 148.66%。25Q1 公司实现营业收入 3.91 亿 元,同比下降 3.03%;归母净利润 0.02 亿元,同比下降 82.60%; 扣非后归母净利润-0.04 亿元,同比下降 171.06%。 24 年整装快速增长,成立合觅科技布局智能家居 2024 年面对家居消费市场压力环境,整装渠道作为公司重要补充渠 道,24 年公司正式推出"五好两易"装企服务模式,24 年整装渠道 业务营业收入同比增长超 60%。24 年公司工程大宗渠道营业收入同 比增长 18.30%。分产品看,1)24 年整体衣柜及配套家具销售收入为 14.42 亿元,同比下 ...
好莱客(603898):整装持续向好,开拓智能家居新赛道
Guotou Securities· 2025-05-09 10:03
2025 年 05 月 09 日 好莱客(603898.SH) 整装持续向好, 开拓智能家居新赛道 事件:公司发布 2024 年年度报告和 2025 年一季报。24 年公司 实现营业收入 19.10 亿元,同比下降 15.69%;归母净利润 0.81 亿元,同比下降 62.93%;扣非后归母净利润 0.52 亿元,同比下 降 67.18%。24Q4 公司实现营业收入 4.65 亿元,同比下降 27.03%; 归母净利润-0.10 亿元,同比下降 126.73%;扣非后归母净利润- 0.13 亿元,同比下降 148.66%。25Q1 公司实现营业收入 3.91 亿 元,同比下降 3.03%;归母净利润 0.02 亿元,同比下降 82.60%; 扣非后归母净利润-0.04 亿元,同比下降 171.06%。 24 年整装快速增长,成立合觅科技布局智能家居 2024 年面对家居消费市场压力环境,整装渠道作为公司重要补充渠 道,24 年公司正式推出"五好两易"装企服务模式,24 年整装渠道 业务营业收入同比增长超 60%。24 年公司工程大宗渠道营业收入同 比增长 18.30%。分产品看,1)24 年整体衣柜及配套家具 ...
德赛西威(002920):2025Q1业绩增长强劲,构建智驾软硬一体全栈能力
Guotou Securities· 2025-05-09 07:04
2025 年 05 月 09 日 德赛西威(002920.SZ) 2025Q1 业绩增长强劲,构建智驾软硬 一体全栈能力 事件:4 月 23 日,德赛西威发布 25 年一季报。25Q1 年公司营收 67.92 亿元,同比+20.26%;归母净利润 5.82 亿元,同比+51.32%;扣非后归母净 利润 4.97 亿元,同比+34.08%。 2025Q1 业绩增长强劲,盈利能力显著提升。公司营收端增长强劲主要系 新客户放量,25Q1 小米销量 7.6 万辆,预计贡献主要增量。25Q1 公司毛利 率 20.52%,同比+1.18pct,环比+2.12pct;剔除会计政策影响因素,同比 +1.78pct,环比+0.27pct。我们认为毛利率环比提升主要系:1)高毛利的 座舱域控、智驾域控占比提升;2)高计价成本的芯片前期已逐步出货。25Q1 公司期间费用率 13.27%,同比+0.31pct,环比+3.22pct。主要系公司持续 进行高研发投入,25Q1 研发费用 6.55 亿元,同比+25.3%,环比+8.41%。 此外公司 Q1 处置参股公司股权实现 0.8 亿投资收益,以及冲回 0.55 亿元 信用减值损失, ...
雅化集团(002497):民爆业务盈利增长,锂矿自给率有望提升
Guotou Securities· 2025-05-09 06:33
2025 年 05 月 09 日 雅化集团(002497.SZ) 民爆业务盈利增长,锂矿自给率有望提 升 公司发布 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季报 2024 年公司实现全年营收 77.16 亿元,同比-35%;归母净利 2.57 亿 元,同比+539%;扣非归母净利 1.64 亿元,同比+177%。2025 年 Q1 实 现营收 15.37 亿元,环比-14%,同比-17%;归母净利 0.82 亿元,环 比-20%,同比+452%;扣非归母净利 0.69 亿元,环比+33%,同比+787%。 民爆业务盈利提升,锂价下行拖累业绩。2024 年公司毛利合计 12.89 亿元,其中民爆行业 12.33 亿元,同比+14%,锂盐业务-0.03 亿元。 2024 年锂业务毛利率-0.07%,同比-5.69pct。民爆业务毛利率 37.8%, 同比+5.95pct。 民爆业务:市场拓展+原辅材降本,看好海外矿服前景 盈利显著提升:2024 年,公司子公司民爆集团实现净利润 6.91 亿元, 同比+24.4%。公司在产能有效释放同时,积极拓展爆破业务,业务规 模同比上升。硝酸铵等主要原辅材价格同比下降,推动民爆业务 ...
金牌家居(603180):四驾马车全面升级,家装渠道快速增长
Guotou Securities· 2025-05-09 02:33
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 24.33 CNY, maintaining the rating [5]. Core Views - The company has experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, with a revenue of 3.475 billion CNY, down 4.68% year-on-year, and a net profit of 199 million CNY, down 31.76% year-on-year. However, the company is focusing on upgrading its "four-horsepower" strategy, which includes retail, home decoration, refined decoration, and overseas markets [1][9]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, particularly in North America, Australia, and Southeast Asia, leading to a 22.34% increase in overseas revenue in 2024 [3]. - The company aims to enhance its home decoration channel, achieving approximately 40% growth in this segment in 2024 [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3.475 billion CNY, a decrease of 4.68% year-on-year, and a net profit of 199 million CNY, a decline of 31.76% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 587 million CNY, down 8.35% year-on-year, and a net profit of 35 million CNY, down 4.16% year-on-year [1][9]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 28.68%, a decrease of 0.91 percentage points year-on-year, while the first quarter of 2025 saw a gross profit margin of 29.96%, an increase of 1.95 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Product and Channel Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenues of 2.025 billion CNY from kitchen cabinets, 1.059 billion CNY from wardrobes, and 250 million CNY from wooden doors, with respective year-on-year changes of -9.30%, +1.41%, and +1.82%. In Q1 2025, the revenues were 322 million CNY from kitchen cabinets, 206 million CNY from wardrobes, and 36 million CNY from wooden doors, with year-on-year changes of -17.15%, +8.26%, and +43.92% [2]. - The company’s revenue from distribution stores, direct sales, bulk business, and overseas markets in 2024 was 1.756 billion CNY, 10 million CNY, 1.242 billion CNY, and 335 million CNY, with year-on-year changes of -6.62%, -89.59%, -2.64%, and +22.34% respectively [3]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.731 billion CNY, 4.074 billion CNY, and 4.345 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.36%, 9.22%, and 6.65% [10]. - The expected net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 217 million CNY, 231 million CNY, and 265 million CNY, with respective growth rates of 8.87%, 6.30%, and 14.89% [10].