2025 年 07 月 13 日 房地产 静待政策宽松 周观点：7 月销售转冷，静待政策宽松 Wind 统计，核心城市房管局成交数据中，新房成交数据全面走弱。重 点监测 32 城，周度成交合计 1.2 万套，环比上周大幅下降 50.5%， 周度成交规模跌至今年春节后周成交新低。一线城市二手房成交持续 回落，上周周度成交合计 0.8 万套，环比转弱明显。 我们认为，新房市场推盘放缓，叠加高温天气下，看房需求走弱下， 成交数据持续走弱，销售持续转冷下，建议持续关注月底政治局会议 对新一轮地产政策的方向定调。建议关注困境反转类房企：金地集团、 新城控股等；保持拿地强度的龙头招商蛇口、绿城中国、保利发展、 滨江集团等；多元经营稳健发展的地方国企浦东金桥、外高桥等。 销售回顾（7.5-7.11） 重点监测 32 城合计成交总套数为 1.2 万套，环比上周下降 50.5%； 2025 年累计成交总套数为 44.1 万套，累计同比下降 5.4%。其中，一 线城市成交 3022 套，环比上周下降 54.7%，2025 年累计成交 12.6 万 套，累计同比增长 6.2%；二线城市成交 7192 套，环比上周下降 52.5%， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" [9] Core Insights - The report highlights that several newly included innovative drugs in the medical insurance directory are rapidly entering hospitals, with significant growth in the number of drugs entering hospitals by the end of May 2025 compared to April 2025 [2][22] - The report notes that the new drug sector has shown a strong performance, with notable increases in stock prices for companies such as Beihai Kangcheng (114.5%), Frontier Biotech (41.4%), and Junsheng Tai (29.4%) during the week of July 7 to July 13, 2025 [1][18] Summary by Sections Weekly New Drug Market Review - From July 7 to July 13, 2025, the top five companies in the new drug sector by stock price increase were Beihai Kangcheng (114.5%), Frontier Biotech (41.4%), Junsheng Tai (29.4%), Kaituo Pharmaceutical (20.7%), and Yongtai Biotech (20.1%) [1][18] - The top five companies by stock price decrease were Yiming Anke (-19.4%), Shenzhou Cell (-13.4%), Ascentage Pharma (-10.0%), Lepu Biotech (-8.9%), and Rongchang Biotech (-8.8%) [1][18] Key Analysis of the New Drug Industry - The National Medical Insurance Administration updated the hospital admission data for innovative drugs included in the medical insurance directory as of the end of May 2025, indicating rapid hospital admissions for several newly included domestic innovative drugs [2][22] - Notable drugs with fast admission growth included Kangfang Biotech's Cardunilumab and Ivorisumab, Shanghai Yizhong's Paclitaxel Micelle, and Zecjin Pharmaceutical's Recombinant Human Thrombin [2][22] New Drug Approval and Acceptance Status - Four new drug or new indication applications were approved this week, including Ascentage Pharma's Lisatoclax tablets and Zhejiang Tianyuan's quadrivalent influenza virus split vaccine [26][27] - Ten new drug applications were accepted, including Dali Yingjie’s Docetaxel Injection and Zhaoke Pharmaceutical's Atropine Sulfate Eye Drops [26][28] Clinical Application Approval and Acceptance Status - This week, 43 new drug clinical applications were approved, and 20 new drug clinical applications were accepted [4][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" [5] Core Insights - The electronic sector has shown a weekly increase of 0.45%, ranking 26th out of 31 sectors, with the electronic index PE at 52.93 times [3][28][37] - The report highlights the launch of Nvidia's GB300 server and the Grok4 AI model by Tesla, indicating significant advancements in AI and computing capabilities [1][2] Industry Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.78%, and the CSI 300 Index went up by 0.82% during the week [28] - The electronic sector's performance includes a 1.12% increase in the Shenwan electronic sector index [3] Sector Data Tracking - The semiconductor sector's PE is reported at 81.87 times, with a 55.90% percentile ranking, while the consumer electronics sector stands at 28.69 times with an 11.74% percentile ranking [41] - The report notes that the SiC power device market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 20% from 2024 to 2030, reaching $10.3 billion [18] Weekly Market Review - The electronic sector's top gainers include C Yitang (+147.81%), C Tongyu (+141.71%), and Xinya Electronics (+31.85%), while the biggest losers were Rui Lian New Materials (-15.98%), Zhongjing Electronics (-13.78%), and Baoming Technology (-13.64%) [36]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Galaxy CSI 300 Enhanced Index Fund (007275.OF) - **Model Construction Idea**: The fund aims to track the CSI 300 Index effectively while employing quantitative methods for active portfolio management and risk control to achieve performance exceeding the benchmark index and generate long-term asset appreciation [2][38][60] - **Model Construction Process**: - The fund uses multi-factor stock selection, index replication, and event-driven strategies to enhance returns while optimizing the portfolio and strictly controlling risks [60] - The fund aims to control the absolute value of the daily tracking deviation between the net value growth rate and the performance benchmark within 0.5% and the annual tracking error within 7.75% [38] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong performance in generating excess returns, maintaining low tracking error, and effectively controlling risks [38][42][44] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Galaxy CSI 300 Enhanced Index Fund - **Annualized Excess Return**: 6.49% since inception [39][42] - **Annual Excess Returns (2020-2025)**: 13.24% (2020), 11.06% (2021), 4.17% (2022), 2.83% (2023), 4.49% (2024), 3.27% (2025 YTD) [43] - **Maximum Drawdown (2020-2025)**: -15.78% (2020), -12.43% (2021), -24.09% (2022), -17.98% (2023), -10.89% (2024), -10.00% (2025 YTD) [44] - **Sharpe Ratio (2020-2025)**: 1.50 (2020), 0.33 (2021), -1.27 (2022), -0.82 (2023), 0.94 (2024), 1.60 (2025 YTD) [44] - **Information Ratio (2020-2025)**: 4.01 (2020), 3.50 (2021), 1.72 (2022), 1.25 (2023), 1.48 (2024), 3.75 (2025 YTD) [44] - **Tracking Error**: Annual tracking error averaged 2.68% from 2020, with a maximum of 3.38%, meeting the target of staying below 7.75% [45] - **2025 YTD Information Ratio**: 3.98, ranking 5th among CSI 300 Enhanced Index Funds [45][47] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Multi-Factor Stock Selection - **Factor Construction Idea**: The fund employs a multi-factor model to identify stocks with high potential for excess returns based on various quantitative metrics [60] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Factors include valuation, momentum, quality, and risk control metrics - Stocks are selected based on their scores across these factors, aiming to optimize the portfolio for enhanced returns while maintaining alignment with the CSI 300 Index [60] - **Factor Evaluation**: The multi-factor approach has been effective in generating consistent excess returns and controlling risks [60] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Multi-Factor Stock Selection - **Excess Returns**: Contributed to the fund's annualized excess return of 6.49% since inception [42][43] - **Risk Control**: Supported low tracking error (average 2.68% annually) and controlled maximum drawdowns [44][45]

2025 年 07 月 11 日 煤炭 稳中求胜，红利为锚 年初至 630 煤炭板块涨跌幅-12%，位居行业最末：2025 年上半 年，由于国内供应端以能源保供作为生产目标的方向并未发生改 变，供应充足与下游补库积极性放缓相互叠加使得价格持续缺乏 向上动能，秦港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价从年初的 765 元/吨下跌 150 元/吨至 615 元/吨，持续处于中长期合同合理区间之内，且 3 月 下旬以来持续低于中长期合同价格；2025H1 均价为 678 元/吨， 同比-23%。京唐港主焦煤从年初的 1520 元/吨下跌 290 元/吨至 1230 元/吨，当前位于近五年来最低点；2025H1 均价 1383 元/吨， 同比-39%。现货价格的持续下跌引发投资者对于板块业绩稳定性 的质疑，叠加市场对于煤炭基本面继续供需宽松的一致预期使得 股价持续承压，截至 6 月 30 日，煤炭板块（申万）涨跌幅-12.29%， 跑输沪深 300，并位居申万行业跌幅最末。细分板块看，动力煤 （申万）涨跌幅-10.11% ，焦煤（申万）涨跌幅-19.04%。 迎峰度夏高温来袭，关注三季度电煤需求向上弹性：1）供给： 内产方面，国 ...

2025 年 07 月 10 日 沪电股份(002463.SZ) 受益 AI 新兴需求，上半年业绩大幅增 长 事件： 公司发布 2025 年半年度业绩预告，上半年归母净利润 165,000 万元 –175,000 万元，比上年同期增长 44.63% - 53.40%。扣非后净利润 161,000 万元-171,000 万元，比上年同期增长 44.85% - 53.85%。 深耕高端 PCB 客户，业绩大幅增长： | | PCB | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 买入-A | | | 维持评级 | | 6 个月目标价 | 58.21 元 | | 股价 (2025-07-10) | 47.25 元 | | 交易数据 | | | 总市值(百万元) | 90,880.11 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 90,821.20 | | 总股本(百万股) | 1,923.39 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 1,922.14 | 12 个月价格区间 24.94/49.07 元 股价表现 资料来源：Wind 资讯 升幅% 1M 3M 12M 相对收益 24.4 66.0 -2.4 绝对收益 28.2 73.4 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company, with a target price of 85.78 CNY for the next six months, based on a dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of 32 times for 2025 [4][3]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leader in the variable frequency drive (VFD) industry and is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of heat pumps and commercial air conditioning, while also expanding into the potential fields of new energy vehicle thermal management and automation [3][11]. - The recovery of European heat pump demand is anticipated to drive the company's revenue and performance growth, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of 2.68 CNY in 2025, increasing to 4.49 CNY by 2027 [3][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Summary - The long-term development trend for HVAC equipment variable frequency controllers is clear, with significant demand expected due to energy-saving and emission-reduction policies [11]. - The company has established strong partnerships with major brands, enhancing its market position and customer base [12][13]. 2. Deepening the Variable Frequency Drive Industry - The company has been in the variable frequency drive industry for 20 years, continuously expanding its product offerings and achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.9% in revenue from 2019 to 2024 [15]. - The company has a diverse product layout, with significant contributions from HVAC/R applications and a growing share from new energy vehicles [15][18]. 3. HVAC Control Space and Long-term Development Trends - The variable frequency drive market is experiencing stable growth, with a notable trend towards domestic substitution in low-voltage variable frequency drives [30][32]. - The penetration rate of variable frequency products in commercial air conditioning is increasing, driven by energy-saving policies and consumer demand for comfort and efficiency [41][42]. 4. Expansion into New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management - The company is actively expanding its product line in the new energy vehicle sector, with a projected CAGR of 113.2% in automotive components revenue from 2020 to 2024 [13][12]. - Collaborations with leading automotive parts manufacturers are expected to enhance the company's market share in this growing field [13]. 5. Strategic Investment in Automation - The establishment of a dedicated automation division in 2014 has positioned the company to capitalize on opportunities in the robotics sector, with ongoing development of key components [2][5]. - The company is focusing on the development of specialized servo systems, which are critical for industrial automation [2][5]. 6. Financial Analysis - The company's net profit margin is expected to improve, supported by the recovery of high-margin overseas heat pump business and the growth of automotive thermal management [14][6]. - Financial projections indicate a steady increase in revenue and net profit, with a forecasted revenue of 16.8 billion CNY in 2025 [6][11].

2025 年 07 月 09 日 叙事变了！新旧动能转换四阶段框架 此前我们反复强调，对于下半年市场的三类预判：类比 2020 年（核心是由 意外事件导致中美欧政策步入同频共振政策周期，结构是以大盘成长为代 表的核心资产占优），类比 2024 年（存在明确二次探底形成双底，结构是 高股息为核心的杠铃策略），类比 2019 年（核心是新旧动能转换下大盘震 荡呈现"俯卧撑"，结构上呈现消费+科技"跷跷板"双轮动）。其中，类比 2019 年是目前在新旧动能转换背景下，最值得探讨的路径。 而类比 2019 年，核心是新旧动能转换下大盘震荡呈现"俯卧撑"，结构上 呈现消费+科技"跷跷板"双轮动。目前看，大盘指数始终比预期得要强，背 后的原因在于中长期悲观问题出现乐观改善，核心指向是对于新旧动能转 换的信心不断增强。从"年初 AI 新科技 DeepSeek1.0"+"军工科技 Deepseek2.0 时刻"+"创新药 Deepseek3.0 时刻"+"国补+新消费支撑社 零修复"+"出口出海维持韧性"+"房地产负面影响逐渐趋于尾声"使得市场 逐渐意识到新旧动能转换定价思路，那么 A 股真有点像 2019 年了。在结 构上 ...

Group 1: Economic Policy and Supply-Side Reform - The current supply-side adjustment in China is expected to be milder compared to the previous round, but may take longer and involve a wider range of industries[2] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to guide enterprises to improve product quality and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, which is crucial for balancing supply and demand[4] - Historical experiences indicate that large-scale capacity reduction leads to a rapid decline in production factor costs and enhances the competitiveness of leading enterprises, ultimately stabilizing prices[5] Group 2: Demand-Side Measures and Consumer Confidence - Recent policies, such as birth subsidies and trade-in incentives, are being implemented to alleviate short-term financial pressures on families and enhance their willingness to have children[6] - Fiscal transfer payments are most effective in boosting long-term consumption when targeted at financially constrained households, as they have a higher marginal propensity to consume[7] - A stable and sustainable economic growth requires simultaneous efforts on both supply and demand sides, ensuring policy strength and predictability[8] Group 3: Asset Prices and Economic Impact - The interaction between rising asset prices and the real economy is still in its early stages, with recent "anti-involution" policies potentially improving fundamental expectations[9] - The ongoing expansion of active credit is crucial for maintaining a strong performance in equity markets, with a focus on the stability of financing balances across society[11] - Historical cases show that asset price increases can lead to recovery in the real sector demand, but also risk tightening regulations if bubbles form[10] Group 4: U.S. Economic Resilience - The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with June's non-farm employment increasing by 147,000, slightly above expectations[13] - The unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a stable labor market[16] - Market expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts have slightly decreased, with anticipated cuts of approximately 54 basis points later in the year[17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the environmental and public utility sector [5]. Core Insights - The global sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market is projected to experience rapid growth due to regulatory requirements and voluntary commitments from airlines, with demand expected to reach 15.5 million tons by 2030 and 196 million tons by 2050 [20][30]. - The supply side is anticipated to face a significant shortfall of approximately 26 million tons by 2035, primarily due to limitations in feedstock availability for the dominant HEFA technology [34][37]. - China is actively promoting SAF through various policies and pilot applications, with expectations for domestic SAF production capacity to reach 2.5 million tons per year by the end of 2025 [39][45]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Topic: Embracing the Global Biojet Fuel Blue Ocean Market - The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the International Air Transport Association (IATA) aim for net-zero emissions by 2050, with SAF being a crucial component for carbon reduction in aviation [20]. - Global SAF demand is projected to grow significantly, with 133 out of 193 ICAO member countries submitting action plans related to SAF [22]. - The report highlights specific regulatory requirements for SAF blending in various countries, including the EU's ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation, which mandates a minimum SAF content of 2% by 2025 [25][26]. 2. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.35% from June 23 to July 4, while the environmental index increased by 4.79%, outperforming the composite index [2][50]. 3. Industry Dynamics - National electricity load reached a historical high of 1.465 billion kilowatts on July 4, 2025, indicating robust demand in the energy sector [11]. - The report discusses various policies aimed at promoting renewable energy and SAF, including the "14th Five-Year Plan" for green development in civil aviation [42]. 4. Investment Portfolio and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with established SAF production capabilities, such as Jiaao Environmental, Pengyao Environmental, and Haixin Energy Technology, due to their potential in the growing SAF market [49]. - In the public utility sector, it recommends investing in coal-fired power companies like Sheneng Co. and Zhejiang Energy, as well as renewable energy firms involved in integrated power solutions [12]. 5. Environmental Sector Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the waste incineration sector, with companies like Weiming Environmental and Junxin Co. expected to benefit from improved cash flow and new revenue streams [13]. - Water service companies are also highlighted for their potential profitability as residential water prices gradually adjust [13].