Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 21.3 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.21%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.7 billion yuan, down 7.50% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expected to benefit as a leading brokerage in a competitive industry, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 1.26 yuan, 1.51 yuan, and 1.72 yuan respectively [4]. Revenue Breakdown - The company's revenue from brokerage, investment banking, asset management, credit, and proprietary trading for 2024 was 4.3 billion yuan, 3.1 billion yuan, 1.2 billion yuan, -1.4 billion yuan, and 10.1 billion yuan respectively, showing declines of 6%, 16%, 0.3%, 4%, and 4% year-on-year [1]. - The stock business revenue fell by 15% to 4.4 billion yuan, while the profit margin increased by 1.72 percentage points to 74.76% [2]. - Fixed income revenue increased by 47% to 3.7 billion yuan, with a profit margin of 73.59%, driven by higher returns from debt investments [2]. Asset Management and Wealth Management - The asset management department's business scale reached 552 billion yuan by the end of 2024, with a total of 783 products managed [2]. - The company's wealth management product scale grew to nearly 370 billion yuan, with a total customer base of approximately 8.5 million, reflecting a 25% increase year-on-year [3]. IPO and Underwriting Performance - The domestic IPO business faced challenges, with the main underwriting IPO scale dropping to 3.59 billion yuan, a decrease of 89% year-on-year [3]. - In contrast, the company maintained a leading position in overseas underwriting, with a total of 3.835 billion USD in Hong Kong IPOs [3]. Financial Projections - The report projects total revenue for 2025 to be 26.5 billion yuan, with net profit expected to reach 7.3 billion yuan [12]. - The company's total assets are forecasted to grow from 674.7 billion yuan in 2024 to 708.5 billion yuan in 2025 [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a record high in 2024 with total revenue of 1325.55 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 85.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 262.29 billion yuan, up 201.1% year-on-year [1]. - New business value (NBV) reached 62.53 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 106.8% [2]. - The company has prudently adjusted the investment return assumptions for non-linked insurance funds to 4.0% and the risk discount rate to 8.5%, resulting in an embedded value of 2584 billion yuan at the end of 2024, an increase of 3.17% from the beginning of the year [1]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - The company reported original premium income of 1705.11 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. Long-term insurance new single premiums were 388.11 billion yuan, down 5.1% year-on-year, while long-term insurance new single regular premiums increased by 15.6% to 272.20 billion yuan [2]. - The new business value rate improved significantly from 6.7% in 2023 to 14.6% in 2024, an increase of 7.9 percentage points [2]. - The personal life insurance business showed a 13-month continuation rate of 95.7%, up 5.9 percentage points year-on-year, and a 25-month continuation rate of 86.2%, up 7.8 percentage points [2]. Agent and Channel Performance - The number of individual insurance agents decreased slightly to 136,000, down by 19,000 year-on-year, but the average monthly performance of agents improved by 41% year-on-year to 0.81 million yuan [3]. - The bancassurance channel generated premium income of 516.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, with first-year premiums for long-term insurance reaching a historical high of 138.73 billion yuan, up 11.5% year-on-year [3]. Investment Performance - Total investment income surged by 251.6% year-on-year, with an overall investment return rate of 5.8%, up 4.0 percentage points year-on-year, and a net investment return rate of 3.2%, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The proportion of bond investments increased by 2.0 percentage points to 52.1%, while stock investments rose significantly by 70.2% to 1807.95 billion yuan, accounting for 18.8% of total investment assets, an increase of 4.6 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 8.80 yuan, 11.47 yuan, and 11.72 yuan respectively, with a target price of 57.61 yuan based on a 0.65x P/EV for 2025 [4][6].

国投证券宏观定期报告 周度经济观察 ————关税阴霾临近，市场焦点切换 袁方1束加沛2 张端怡（联系人）3 2025 年 4 月 1 日 内容提要 工业企业利润数据与 PMI 数据显示年初以来国内生产端继续修复。除前期 稳增长政策的推动外，美国关税的持续加码使得我国"抢出口"影响延长，这成 为企业补库和订单增加的重要支撑。 权益市场风格切换延续，科技板块出现明显调整，交易量的缩减表明市场分 歧在逐步收敛。随着美国关税调查结果临近公布，国内市场开始关注和评估其潜 在的影响，这意味着市场风险偏好或将继续回落。 近期美国经济基本面持续走弱，叠加关税阴霾，压制欧美权益市场表现。考 虑到地缘政治格局仍不明朗、以及美国经济持续降温，市场避险情绪或推动黄金 价格维持高位。 风险提示：（1）地缘政治风险 （2）政策出台超预期 证券研究报告/国投证券宏观定期报告 第 1 页，共 11 页 2025 年 4 月 1宏观团队负责人，yuanfang@essence.com.cn，S1450520080004 2宏观分析师，shujp@essence.com.cn，S1450523010002 3联系人，zhangdy2@essen ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to Hisense Home Appliances, with a target price of 38.78 CNY over the next six months, representing a dynamic P/E ratio of 14 times for 2025 [3][5]. Core Views - Hisense Home Appliances reported a revenue of 92.75 billion CNY for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, and a net profit of 3.35 billion CNY, up 18.0% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 22.17 billion CNY, a 7.1% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 550 million CNY, up 34.9% year-on-year. The growth was attributed to the "old-for-new" policy and strong external sales performance in Q4 [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Hisense's air conditioning and refrigerator segments showed significant growth, with domestic sales increasing by 17.8% and 2.9% respectively, while external sales surged by 55.4% and 10.4% [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q4 2024 was reported at 19.7%, down 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased domestic price competition and rising raw material costs. However, the net profit margin improved by 0.5 percentage points to 2.5% [2]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The central air conditioning market is identified as a growth sector within the home appliance industry, with Hisense expected to benefit from increased downstream demand. The integration of Sanlian Electric Holdings has led to improved profitability levels [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are estimated at 102.59 billion CNY and 115.56 billion CNY respectively, with net profits expected to reach 3.83 billion CNY and 4.36 billion CNY [4][12]. Valuation Metrics - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 2.77 CNY for 2025 and 3.14 CNY for 2026, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 14.8 in 2023 to 10.9 in 2025 [4][12]. - The net profit margin is expected to gradually improve from 3.6% in 2024 to 3.8% in 2026, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [4][12].

2025 年 03 月 31 日 继峰股份(603997.SH) 24Q4 新业务快速增长，2025 年轻装上阵 事件：公司发布2024年年报，2024年公司实现营收222.55亿元，同比+3.17%， 实现归母净利-5.67 亿元，同比-378.01%；其中,24Q4 公司实现营收 53.49 亿 元，同比-5.03%，实现归母净利-0.35 亿元。 座椅实现盈亏平衡、出风口&冰箱大幅增长 2024 年继峰母公司实现营收 64.31 亿元，同比+60.27%，实现归母净利 2.79 亿 元，同比+41.82%，①其中座椅实现收入 31.1 亿元，销量 33.30 万件，测算得 单车价值量 9424 元，座椅业务首次实现盈亏平衡；②智能出风口业务实现营 业收入 4.05 亿元，EBIT 金额为 0.44 亿元，大幅盈利；③车载冰箱业务实 现营业收入约 1.21 亿元，在开始贡献收入的首年，EBIT 实现盈利，2024 年 增量三大业务座椅、智能出风口、车载冰箱均大幅增长。④其他传统业务头枕 扶手等收入约为 29 亿元，同比-5%，预计是因为国内大众等销量下滑。 24Q4 单季度看，公司实现营收 53.49 亿 ...

2025 年 03 月 31 日 春风动力(603129.SH) 电动两轮走向高端化，极核进入成长新阶段 以旧换新带动两轮车行业高增长，更新需求打开长期空间 电动两轮车行业总量受政策影响较大。2025 年行业总量有望恢复高速增长：1） 新国标略微提升电自生产成本，但电自具备刚需属性，价格上升对需求影响较 小；2）以旧换新补贴金额主要集中在 500 元左右，优惠力度大、对销量提振 效果明显，并且 2025 年进一步加大了补贴力度、扩大了补贴范围。展望未来， 国内电动两轮车总量有望实现稳健增长：1）C 端需求随保有量增长而增长， 2024 年底国内电动两轮车保有量在 4 亿左右，以 5~7 年的使用寿命计算，每年 的更新需求已达 5~6 千万台，叠加新增需求，实际潜在需求空间更大；2）B 端 即时配送、共享电单车等需求随零售业数字化转型、出行需求增长而高速增长。 我们预计 2028 年国内电动两轮车销量有望达 6281 万辆，2023 年至 2028 年期 间 CAGR 约为 2.7%。 电动两轮车行业结构持续升级，高端市场空间广阔 过去电动两轮车产品痛点多：续航不够长、充电慢、智能化程度低等。电机、 电池、物联 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate-A" with a target price of 55.58 CNY for the next six months [3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 27.985 billion CNY for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.63%, and a net profit of 6.337 billion CNY, up 47.28% year-on-year. The sales revenue from innovative drugs reached 13.892 billion CNY, growing by 30.60% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company has made significant progress in overseas business development (BD), achieving approximately 8 cooperation agreements since 2023, which are expected to enhance its international market presence and valuation [1][2]. - The company anticipates that 11 projects will be approved for market launch in 2025, 13 in 2026, and 23 in 2027, which are expected to drive revenue growth from innovative drugs [7]. Financial Summary - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 31.216 billion CNY, 35.320 billion CNY, and 39.863 billion CNY, respectively. The corresponding net profits are expected to be 7.091 billion CNY, 8.143 billion CNY, and 9.363 billion CNY [7][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are projected to be 1.11 CNY, 1.28 CNY, and 1.47 CNY, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 43.7, 38.1, and 33.1, respectively [7][9]. - The company’s net profit margin is expected to improve from 22.6% in 2024 to 23.5% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [9][11].

2025 年 3 月 31 日 电子 中芯国际营收高增，多家设备公司亮相 Semicon 中芯国际 2024 年财报亮眼：营收破 80 亿美元，全球代工稳 居第二 3 月 27 日晚，中芯国际发布 2024 年年度财报，销售收入达 80.3 亿 美元，同比增长 27%创历史新高，稳居全球纯晶圆代工企业第二， 产能利用率 85.6%高于同业均值。从收入结构看，消费电子领域占 比最高，中国区营收占比达 85%，12 英寸营收占比升至 77%。研发 投入 7.65 亿美元，占营业收入的 9.5%，研发人员薪酬提升，专利 申请和授权量领先，多个工艺平台完成开发且部分量产。展望 2025 年，预计销售收入增幅高于同业均值，资本开支与上一年持平。 美光带头涨价，存储产品价格有望上行 3 月 25 日美光发布涨价函，CFM 闪存市场涨价幅度为 10%-15%，此 前报道美光目标是涨价 11%，涨价原因与 1 月新加坡工厂停电致供 应紧张有关。美光强调人工智能相关需求增长是发展动力，其 2025 年 HBM 产能已售罄，2026 年需求强劲。美光定价考虑产品价值和 投资回报率。在美光宣布涨价前，闪迪宣布 4 月 1 日起涨价 ...

行业周报 证券研究报告 2024Q4 基建央企现金流改善，中国低 空飞行开启"载人时代" 本周投资建议： 本周，四家传统基建央企（中国交建、中国中铁、中国铁建、中国中 冶）发布 2024 年年报，2024 年合计实现营收 3.55 万亿元（yoy- 6.39%），归母净利润 802.32 亿元（yoy-12.85%），归母业绩下滑幅度 大于营收下滑幅度，或主要系下游需求疲软盈利能力下行叠加费用率 增加所致。单 Q4 来看，中国交建营收和中国铁建业绩明显改善，其 中中国交建营收增长稳健，为 11.53%（前三季度为-2.26%）；中国铁 建归母业绩降幅收窄，为-2.36%（前三季度为-19.18%）。从现金流看， 前三季度四家央企经营性现金流均为净流出，Q4 现金流实现净流入， 环比大幅改善；2024 年，中国中铁、中国交建、中国中冶经营性现金 流全年转正，分别为 280.51 亿元、125.06 亿元和 78.48 亿元。从分 红率看，2024 年中国交建、中国中铁、中国铁建分红比例同比均有所 提升，分别为 21%（2023 年为 20%）、15.79%（2023 年为 15.52%）、 20.60%（202 ...

2025 年 03 月 31 日 中国铁建(601186.SH) Q4 归母业绩降幅收窄，海外/新兴业务 新签同比增长，分红比例持续提升 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报，营业收入 1.07 万亿元（yoy- 6.22%），归母净利润 222.15 亿元（yoy-14.87%）；单四季度，营 业收入 3090.46 亿元（-6.78%），归母净利润 65.20 亿元（yoy- 2.36%）。拟按照每 10 股派息 3.0 元（含税），现金分红占 2024 年 归母净利润的比例为 20.60%（同比+0.42pct）。 整体营收增长承压，海外营收增长稳健，Q4 归母业绩降幅收窄。 2024 年，公司实现营业收入 1.07 万亿元（yoy-6.22%），Q1-Q4 各 季度公司营收增速分别为 0.52%、-9.84%、-8.82%和-6.78%，公司 整体营收增长承压，或由于行业投资放缓，同时下游客户支付能 力受限所致。分业务看，公司各板块营收及增速分别为：工程承 包9312.45亿元（yoy-5.68%）、设计咨询180.24亿元（yoy-3.89%）、 工业制造 233.95 亿元（yoy-2.52%）、房地 ...