Economic Outlook - The joint statement indicates that the most pessimistic expectations for the macro economy are passing, with effective control over tail risks of economic slowdown[2] - The economy is likely to show a V-shaped recovery this year, with a rebound expected in the second half[2] Trade and Tariffs - The US-China trade talks resulted in a 90-day suspension of most tariff increases, maintaining US tariffs on China at approximately 42%[4] - April exports decreased by 8.1% year-on-year, but this was less than market expectations, supported by a "rush to re-export" during the tariff suspension period[7] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing products, such as ships and automobiles, showed strong growth, with ship exports increasing by 67.8% in April[7] - Exports to the US fell sharply, with a year-on-year decline from 9.1% in March to -21.0% in April, while exports to ASEAN and India grew significantly[8] Inflation and Prices - April's PPI was -2.7% year-on-year, with significant declines in coal and oil prices contributing to this[11] - April's CPI was -0.1% year-on-year, with food prices, particularly beef and seafood, showing strong performance[13] Market Trends - The equity market has been on an upward trend, driven by factors such as military performance in recent conflicts and timely monetary policy responses[16] - The market's focus is shifting back to domestic economic fundamentals, with signs of recovery in consumption and real estate[18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 6.75 CNY, maintaining the rating [4]. Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 5.574 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 56.96%, and net profit of 666 million CNY, up 137.91% [1]. - The acquisition of COFCO Packaging has been successfully completed, contributing to a substantial increase in total assets by 66.56% to 30.137 billion CNY as of Q1 2025 [3]. - The company is expected to benefit from a stabilizing supply-demand dynamic in the two-piece can industry, further enhancing its market position and international expansion efforts [9]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 13.673 billion CNY, a slight decline of 1.23% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 2.06% to 791 million CNY [1]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 16.31%, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.07 percentage points, although Q1 2025 saw a decline to 13.60% [4][8]. - The net profit margin improved significantly in Q1 2025 to 11.99%, up 4.21 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to investment income from the acquisition [9]. Product and Regional Performance - The revenue from metal packaging products and services in 2024 was 12.123 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.70% [2]. - Domestic revenue accounted for 91.34% of total revenue in 2024, while international revenue represented 8.66%, both showing slight declines [2]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 19.180 billion CNY, 21.142 billion CNY, and 24.121 billion CNY, with expected growth rates of 40.28%, 10.23%, and 14.09% respectively [9]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.227 billion CNY, 1.254 billion CNY, and 1.341 billion CNY, with growth rates of 55.16%, 2.26%, and 6.89% respectively [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 11.06 CNY, while the current stock price is 8.51 CNY [5]. Core Views - The company is actively promoting a trade-in program, which is expected to stimulate demand. The implementation of national subsidy policies is anticipated to further catalyze demand, especially with the upcoming 3C certification for smart toilets [3][10]. - The company has shown a significant improvement in gross margin in Q1 2025, reaching 29.02%, an increase of 4.62 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the positive impact of national subsidy policies on product sales structure [4][10]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 7.131 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 6.76%, and a net profit of 67 million CNY, down 84.28% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 1.050 billion CNY, a decline of 7.46% year-on-year, with a net loss of 73 million CNY [1][10]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 25.24%, down 3.09 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for Q1 2025 improved significantly [4][10]. Product and Channel Performance - Revenue from various product categories in 2024 showed mixed results, with sanitary ceramics and faucets declining by 6.6% and 1.82% respectively, while bathroom furniture and accessories saw an increase of 2.38% [2]. - The company’s distribution model revenue in 2024 was 6.062 billion CNY, a decrease of 7.62% year-on-year, while the direct sales model revenue was 1.001 billion CNY, down 3.49% [3]. International Expansion - The company achieved overseas revenue of 309 million CNY in 2024, marking a substantial increase of 137.73% year-on-year, as it continues to pursue internationalization and diversify its market presence [3]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 7.568 billion CNY, 8.177 billion CNY, and 9.027 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 289 million CNY, 385 million CNY, and 501 million CNY [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the engineering machinery sector, indicating a potential upgrade to a comprehensive prosperity phase [2][9]. Core Insights - The recovery pace of excavators is accelerating, with the sector gradually transitioning towards comprehensive prosperity. In 2024 and the first four months of 2025, total excavator sales reached 201,100 and 83,500 units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 3.1% and 21.4% [2][9]. - The main drivers of revenue growth in 2024 were exports, while domestic demand recovery is expected to further enhance growth in 2025 [8][20]. - The sector's overall revenue and profit performance showed positive growth in 2024, with a significant acceleration in growth in the first quarter of 2025 [20][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Operating Performance - The engineering machinery sector has shown a return to an upward revenue trajectory, with total revenue of 331.92 billion and 90.365 billion yuan in 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 2.81% and 10.17% [20][25]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 25.373 billion and 8.685 billion yuan for the same periods, with year-on-year increases of 13.58% and 32.79% [20][25]. 1.1 Market Performance - The engineering machinery sector has consistently outperformed the broader market, with a cumulative increase of 22.86% in 2024 compared to 16.2% for the CSI 300 index [14][15]. - Key catalysts for this performance include macroeconomic policy adjustments and the ongoing recovery of domestic demand [14][15]. 1.2 Growth Potential - The report indicates a shift from an "export-only" growth model to a "dual-core" model driven by both domestic and international demand [20][27]. - The sector's international business expansion has helped mitigate the impact of domestic demand fluctuations [20][27]. 1.3 Profitability - Profitability has improved, with the gross profit margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 at 25.08% and 24.61%, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 1.23 percentage points and 0.21 percentage points [8][20]. - The net profit margin for the same periods was 7.96% and 9.83%, with year-on-year increases of 0.85 percentage points and 1.56 percentage points [8][20]. 1.4 Quality of Operations - The sector has seen a significant improvement in operating cash flow, achieving 32.869 billion yuan in 2024, with a net cash ratio of 1.3, indicating strong risk management capabilities [8][20]. 2. Engineering Machinery - The excavator segment is experiencing high growth, while non-excavator categories are stabilizing, indicating a potential upgrade to comprehensive prosperity [9][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading manufacturers and component suppliers within the engineering machinery sector [9][10]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading manufacturers of complete machinery, component manufacturers, and high-altitude/ forklift manufacturers, as the sector is expected to experience a revenue inflection point in 2025 [9][10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market - B" [5] Core Insights - The recent reduction in reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points is expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market, which may lower financing costs for real estate companies and stabilize property sales [16][18] - The construction industry is anticipated to face operational pressure in 2024 and Q1 2025 due to increased tariffs from the US, but domestic demand expansion is expected to support economic growth [18] - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable core business development and emerging business layouts that could create new growth points, such as Huayang International [11][12] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The central bank's recent monetary policy adjustments, including a 0.1 percentage point reduction in policy interest rates and a 0.25 percentage point decrease in housing provident fund loan rates, are aimed at enhancing liquidity and supporting the real estate sector [16][18] - The construction industry is expected to see improved fundamentals and operational indicators as infrastructure policies and investments are likely to be intensified [18] Market Performance - The construction industry experienced a 1.99% increase in stock prices from May 6 to May 9, 2025, with all sub-sectors showing positive performance [19] - The report highlights that 87.20% of companies in the construction sector recorded gains during this period, with significant performers including Shanshui Bide and Chuangxing Resources [21] Key Focus Stocks - The report identifies several key stocks to watch, including traditional infrastructure state-owned enterprises like China State Construction, China Communications Construction, and China Railway Construction, which are expected to benefit from improved financial metrics and valuation recovery [12][18] - It also highlights design firms in the infrastructure sector and international engineering service providers with strong competitive advantages in overseas markets [10][13] Company Announcements - Recent major contract wins include projects by companies such as Tengda Construction and China Communications Construction, indicating ongoing demand in the construction sector [32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" with a rating of A [5] Core Insights - The domestic biotech innovation drug companies are gradually entering a commercialization phase, with losses narrowing significantly. The total operating revenue for 69 A-share and Hong Kong-listed biotech companies reached 92.43 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 36% [2][20] - The overall net profit attributable to the parent company for these biotech companies was -19.36 billion yuan in 2024, a substantial reduction from -32.58 billion yuan in 2023, indicating a trend of reducing losses by over 10 billion yuan annually since 2021. It is projected that these companies may turn profitable by 2026 [3][25] - Research and development expenses for these companies decreased by 5% year-on-year to 46.55 billion yuan in 2024, suggesting a slowdown in R&D investment due to the impact of the financing environment and the already high base of R&D costs [4][26] - Sales expenses increased to 32.13 billion yuan in 2024, with a sales expense ratio of 35%, which has slightly declined compared to 2023 [4][30] - The total cash reserves of these biotech companies were 81.87 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 13% year-on-year, although core biotech companies maintain sufficient cash reserves [10][31] Summary by Sections Weekly New Drug Market Review - From May 5 to May 9, 2025, the top five companies in the new drug sector by stock price increase were Junshengtai (48.89%), Haichuang Pharmaceutical (22.76%), Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (8.98%), Keji Pharmaceutical (5.90%), and Hengrui Medicine (3.35%). The top five companies by decline were Fuhong Hanlin (-12.64%), Kanuo Pharmaceutical (-12.40%), Boan Biotechnology (-11.77%), Lepu Biopharma (-11.09%), and Yongtai Biotechnology (-9.37%) [1][15] Weekly New Drug Industry Analysis - The report analyzed the operating revenue, net profit, R&D expenses, sales expenses, and cash reserves of 69 A-share and Hong Kong-listed biotech companies from 2018 to 2024, indicating a positive trend in commercialization and revenue growth [2][20] Weekly New Drug Approval & Acceptance Status - Ten new drug or new indication applications were approved this week, including products from Qingpu Biotechnology, Lijun Microball, and others. Additionally, three new drug applications were accepted, including those from Hengrui Medicine and CSL Behring [11][36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [5] Core Insights - The domestic biotech innovation drug companies are gradually entering a commercialization phase, with losses narrowing significantly. The total net profit attributable to the parent company for 69 A-share and Hong Kong-listed biotech companies is expected to turn positive by 2026, following a trend of reducing losses by over 100 billion yuan annually since 2021 [3][25]. Summary by Sections Weekly New Drug Market Review - From May 5 to May 9, 2025, the top five companies in the new drug sector by stock price increase were Junsheng Tai (48.89%), Haichuang Pharmaceutical (22.76%), Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (8.98%), Keji Pharmaceutical (5.90%), and Heng Rui Pharmaceutical (3.35%). The top five companies by stock price decrease were Fuhong Hanlin (-12.64%), Kanuo Pharmaceutical (-12.40%), Boan Biotechnology (-11.77%), Lepu Biopharma (-11.09%), and Yongtai Biopharma (-9.37%) [1][15]. Weekly New Drug Industry Analysis - In 2024, the 69 A-share and Hong Kong-listed biotech companies achieved a total operating revenue of 92.43 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 36%. The number of companies with revenue exceeding 100 million yuan increased to 50, a 22% year-on-year growth [2][20]. Net Profit Analysis - The total net profit attributable to the parent company for the 69 biotech companies was -19.36 billion yuan in 2024, a significant improvement from -32.58 billion yuan in 2023. This trend is expected to continue, with projections indicating a return to profitability by 2026 [3][25]. Research and Development Expenses - The total R&D expenses for the 69 biotech companies in 2024 were 46.55 billion yuan, a decrease of 5% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in R&D investment due to the impact of the financing environment and the already high base of R&D expenses [4][26]. Sales Expenses - The total sales expenses for the 69 biotech companies reached 32.13 billion yuan in 2024, with a sales expense ratio of 35%, which has decreased compared to 2023 [4][30]. Cash Reserves - The total cash reserves for the 69 biotech companies were 81.87 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 13% year-on-year. Despite this decline, core biotech companies maintain sufficient cash reserves, with 23 companies having cash reserves exceeding 1 billion yuan [10][31]. New Drug Approval and Acceptance - In the past week, 10 new drug or new indication applications were approved, and 3 applications were accepted. Notable approvals include Meloxicam injection and various monoclonal antibodies [11][36].

2025 年 05 月 11 日 黄金坑成功兑现：后续是高低结构再平衡 本周上证指数涨 1.92%回升至 3350 附近，沪深 300 涨 2.00%，创业板指涨 3.27%，所有一级行业均实现上涨。自我们国投策略团队 4 月 7 号《这是一个 "黄金坑"！》提出"黄金坑"，从 4 月初至 4 月中旬"坑底明确"到"爬坑"， 黄金坑获得阶段性验证；到上证综指回到清明节前水平"迎接出坑"，可以明确 地说：本轮"黄金坑"基本符合我们的判断。对于后续大盘指数预判，我们反复 强调：大盘指数会转入"震荡市"思维，对应"强预期、弱现实"定价状态，但 没有明显"二次探底"风险，在这个阶段安心做结构，好好找α是可以的。 事实上，市场在此期间对于"二次探底"仍有诸多探讨，但我们认为"二次探底" 的促发因素在于美元指数的意外走升，眼下美元指数大致在 100 附近波动，"弱 美元"底色并未改变，意味着由美向非美资产的回摆过程依然是全球资产定价 的底层逻辑。同时，市场进一步大幅向上的重要制约是国内基本面充满韧性却 存在环比走弱压力。目前，可以看到 1-3 月全国财政支出增速进一步扩张到 4.2% （前值 3.4%），但央地财政支出增 ...

2025 年 5 月 11 日 电子 中芯&华虹发布 Q1 业绩，欧盟芯片法案升 级 5 月 8 日，中芯国际&华虹半导体发布 2025 年一季报 中芯国际 25Q1 实现营业收入 163.01 亿元，同比+29.44%；归母净 利润 13.56 亿元，同比+166.5%；基本每股收益 0.17 元，同比 +183.33%；毛利率 23.1%，同比+8.91 个百分点。25Q2 公司给出指 引，收入环比下降 4%-6%，毛利率 18%-20%。华虹半导体 25Q1 实 现营业收入 5.41 亿美元，同比+17.6%，环比+0.3%；毛利率 9.2%， 同比+2.8 个百分点，环比-2.2 个百分点。25Q2 公司给出指引，收 入约 5.5-5.7 亿美元，毛利率 7%-9%。 战略迭代欧盟推进芯片法案 2.0 修订，强化本土半导体产业 欧盟推进芯片法案 2.0 修订。2022 年欧盟通过《芯片法案》，计划 投入 430 亿欧元，目标在 2030 年将全球半导体市场份额从 10%提 升至 20%，并实现 2 纳米及以下先进制程的本土化生产。受资金、 技术、原材料及能源成本限制，欧洲审计院预计 2030 年其市场 ...

结构上，我们建议继续关注先进制造行业的机会，主要基于两点考虑， 一个是行业四轮驱动模型发出了相关行业的机会提示信号，另一个是 先进制造行业的成交金额占比有从过去两年的低点企稳回升的迹象， 而且这一比例并没有进入过热区间，应该不太可能出现快速大涨之后 的踩踏风险。具体行业上，模型建议继续关注通信、机械设备、国防 军工、家用电器等板块的潜在机会。 考虑到上周五军工行业出现了明显的调整，但因为印巴冲突周末军工 板块的关注度特别高，我们可以从军工板块相对于市场整体的相对性 价比来做一个简单的评估。若将军工指数收盘价除以 Wind 偏股混合 型基金指数的收盘价，可以看到该比值处于过去 10 年来的底部，而 且从历史规律来看，军工板块往往有望在一轮行情的末端表现出现明 显的超额收益。因此，无论从历史经验、基本面还是从事件驱动的逻 辑看，都有望驱动军工板块在当前的震荡行情下表现出不错的超额收 益机会。 风险提示：根据历史数据构建的模型在市场变化时可能失效。 金融工程定期报告 证券研究报告 2025 年 05 月 11 日 结构重于仓位，继续关注先进制造 本期要点：结构重于仓位，继续关注先进制造 上期提到，五月份的市场表现或 ...