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绿竹生物-B:LZ901三期进行时,剑指百亿蓝海市场
Guotou Securities· 2024-09-10 05:09
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy - A" investment rating to the company with a 6-month target price of HKD 32.77 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company, Green Bamboo Bio, has been deeply engaged in the biotechnology sector for over 20 years, focusing on the development of innovative human vaccines and therapeutic biological agents. It has successfully developed six vaccine products, with five already commercialized [1][10]. - The core product, LZ901, is a recombinant shingles vaccine that is expected to become the first of its kind approved for sale in China. The market for shingles vaccines in China is largely untapped, with a penetration rate of only 0.4% among individuals over 40, compared to over 40% in the U.S. [1][2][10]. - The company has a robust pipeline with seven products under development, including LZ901, K3 (a biosimilar to Humira), and K193 (a bispecific antibody) [1][5][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Green Bamboo Bio was established in November 2001 and has a strong foundation in vaccine research and development. The founder, Kong Jian, has over 30 years of experience in the biopharmaceutical industry [1][10]. - The company has transitioned to a public company and is exploring new opportunities for growth through financing and partnerships [10]. Shingles Vaccine (LZ901) - LZ901 is positioned to capture a significant share of the domestic shingles vaccine market, which is projected to be a multi-billion market. The vaccine has shown excellent immunogenicity and low incidence of adverse reactions in clinical trials [1][2][10]. - The Phase III clinical trial for LZ901 commenced in September 2023, with plans to submit a Biologics License Application (BLA) to the National Medical Products Administration by January 2025 [1][2][10]. Other Products in Development - K3, a biosimilar to Humira, has completed Phase I clinical trials and is expected to enter Phase III trials in 2025. The company plans to price K3 significantly lower than existing biosimilars, enhancing its competitive edge [2][5][10]. - K193, a bispecific antibody for treating B-cell leukemia and lymphoma, is also in clinical development, with expectations to complete Phase I trials by 2025 [2][5][10]. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company anticipates revenues of HKD 0.02 billion in 2024, HKD 0.02 billion in 2025, and HKD 5.87 billion in 2026, with net profits projected to turn positive in 2026 [5][6][10]. - The report utilizes a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for valuation, leading to the target price of HKD 32.77 [5][6][10]. Research and Development - The company maintains a high level of R&D expenditure, with approximately HKD 173 million in 2023, reflecting an 88.9% increase from 2022 due to the advancement of LZ901 [42][10]. - The R&D team is experienced, having previously developed several successful vaccines, and the company has established advanced technology platforms to support its product development [18][10].
周度经济观察:价格加速下行,市场持续承压
Guotou Securities· 2024-09-10 04:03
国投证券宏观定期报告 周度经济观察 ————价格加速下行,市场持续承压 袁方1束加沛2 张端怡(联系人)3 2024 年 09 月 10 日 内容提要 8 月通胀数据显示总需求不足的局面还在蔓延和深化,价格的加速下行带来 名义增长的走低,进而对企业盈利产生负面影响。 在内需收缩、盈利下滑的背景下,部分红利股票的"类债"属性受到质疑, 这是红利指数调整的原因。如果没有强有力的稳增长政策出台,低内需关联度的 公司以及利率债的配置价值仍存。 美国劳动力市场虽小幅修复,但不改降温趋势,导致市场对美国陷入衰退的 担忧再起。随着美国大选临近,宏观不确定性增强,市场风险偏好也因此明显回 落。这些因素或许将共同导致美股市场波动加剧,上行动能不足。 风险提示:(1)地缘政治风险 (2)政策出台超预期 1宏观分析师,yuanfang@essence.com.cn,S1450520080004 2宏观分析师,shujp@essence.com.cn,S1450523010002 3联系人,zhangdy2@essence.com.cn 证券研究报告/国投证券宏观定期报告 第 1 页,共 11 页 2024 年 9 月 国投证券宏观 ...
盛业:科技类收入稳步增长,战略合作助力转型
Guotou Securities· 2024-09-09 16:06
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a main business revenue of 436 million yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, while platform technology service revenue surged by 83% to 154 million yuan, accounting for 35% of total revenue [1] - Strategic cooperation with Taihu New City Group is expected to accelerate the company's transformation, despite a 22% decline in digital financial solutions revenue to 275 million yuan due to changes in ownership structure [1] - The company is optimistic about leveraging fintech to enhance its service capabilities for the real economy, which is anticipated to drive continued business growth [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 166 million yuan, down 12% year-on-year, with earnings per share of 0.16 yuan, a decrease of 11% [1] - The total processed supply chain asset scale reached approximately 216 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22% [1] Strategic Developments - The partnership with Taihu New City Group led to a reduction in the company's stake in Wuxi Guojin from 80% to 49%, resulting in a short-term decline in operating revenue, total assets, and net assets [1] - The strategic cooperation aims to enhance platform service revenue and optimize the company's business structure, improving return on equity [1] Future Outlook - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 0.30 yuan, 0.36 yuan, and 0.43 yuan respectively, with a target price of 7.32 HKD based on a price-to-book ratio of 1.6x for 2024 [1][2]
医药产业链数据库之:创新药投融资,2024年8月全球创新药投融资暂时下滑,但2024年以来整体仍呈改善趋势
Guotou Securities· 2024-09-09 13:03
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Leading the Market-A" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [3] Core Views - The global VC&PE investment and financing in innovative drugs showed a temporary decline in August 2024, but the overall trend has been improving since the beginning of 2024 [1][9] - The US market has shown significant improvement in VC&PE investment and financing for innovative drugs, particularly in 2024Q2 [2][12] Annual Perspective - In 2024H1, global VC&PE investment and financing in innovative drugs improved, with the US showing a notable recovery: global investment decreased by 2.35% YoY, while US investment increased by 15.51% YoY, marking a 27.73 and 54.88 percentage point improvement respectively compared to the same period last year [2][10] Quarterly Perspective - In 2024Q2, the US market saw a significant improvement in VC&PE investment and financing for innovative drugs: global investment decreased by 6.55% YoY, US investment increased by 22.45% YoY, and domestic investment decreased by 45.11% YoY [3][12] Monthly Perspective - In August 2024, global VC&PE investment and financing in innovative drugs experienced a temporary decline: global investment decreased by 33.01% YoY, US investment decreased by 31.18% YoY, and domestic investment decreased by 64.18% YoY [3][14] Industry Performance - The pharmaceutical industry underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with relative returns of -3.3% over 1 month, -1.2% over 3 months, and -4.4% over 12 months [4]
建筑行业周报:Q2建筑板块营收/业绩均有所承压,Q3专项债发行提速,看好建筑央企基本面改善
Guotou Securities· 2024-09-09 09:00
2024 年 09 月 09 日 建筑 Q2 建筑板块营收/业绩均有所承压,Q3 专项债发行提速,看好建筑央企基本面 改善 本周投资建议: 近期,建筑行业半年报已披露完毕,2024H1 建筑板块(SW)实现营收 4.23 万亿元(yoy-3.30%),实现归母净利润 979.64 亿元(yoy10.19%),实现扣非归母净利润 895.56 亿元(yoy-11.61%)。Q2 建 筑板块(SW)实现营收 2.16 万亿元(yoy-7.23%),实现归母净利润 475 亿元(yoy-17.12%)。Q2 建筑板块营收/业绩均有所承压,或主 要系建筑板块受当地财政压力或地产下行影响,项目推进缓慢所致。 2024H1 八大建筑央企合计实现营收 3.43 万亿元(yoy-2.26%),实 现归母净利润 831.38 亿元(yoy-7.55%)。其中,中国建筑/中国电 建 / 中国能建营收逆势实现正向增长,分别同比增长 2.81%/1.29%/1.11%;中国建筑/中国能建归母净利润增速也表现亮 眼,分别为 1.65%和 4.68%。从海外营收来看,2024H1 八大建筑央企 合计实现海外营收 2944.57 亿元(y ...
补栏谨慎能繁月增幅减少,猪价持续性或超预期
Guotou Securities· 2024-09-09 08:03
行业周报 2024 年 09 月 09 日 农林牧渔 补栏谨慎能繁月增幅减少,猪价持续性 或超预期 生猪养殖:短期猪价或随供需博弈震荡,能繁增幅减少猪价持 续性或超预期 价格端:本周生猪均价 19.79 元/kg,周环比+0.35%,两周环比-1.94%; 仔猪价格 649 元/头,周环比-5.26%,两周环比-2.88%。根据 iFinD 数据,本周猪肉批发价格 27.27 元/kg,周环比-0.85%。 供给端:本周生猪日均屠宰量为 13.93 万头,周环比变动+4.30%。 周观点:短期猪价或随供需博弈震荡,能繁增幅减少猪价持续性或超 预期。涌益咨询点评显示,偏集团样本仍维持稳定微增趋势,散户呈 现增幅减小趋势,其中华南散户保持稳定,西南部分地区散户有猪病 少量发生增加淘汰,北方散户观望为主。区别于往年行情好就积极补 栏,今年的上涨行情下并没有带动太多的补栏母猪,主要原因是这几 年行情的大起大落、疫病的不确定性、集团化的产能调节及变化,散 户更多处于观望心态。短期价格趋势来看,9 月全国多地出栏量均有 不同程度增量,市场二育存栏压力仍较强,消费端虽天气转凉有增量, 但并未到季节性暴增阶段,因此供需间的博 ...
农林牧渔行业周报:补栏谨慎能繁月增幅减少,猪价持续性或超预期
Guotou Securities· 2024-09-09 07:00
本报告仅供 Choice 东方财富 使用,请勿传阅。 行业周报 2024 年 09 月 09 日 农林牧渔 证券研究报告 补栏谨慎能繁月增幅减少,猪价持续性 或超预期 投资评级 领先大市-A 维持评级 生猪养殖:短期猪价或随供需博弈震荡,能繁增幅减少猪价持 续性或超预期 价格端:本周生猪均价 19.79 元/kg,周环比+0.35%,两周环比-1.94%; 仔猪价格 649 元/头,周环比-5.26%,两周环比-2.88%。根据 iFinD 数据,本周猪肉批发价格 27.27 元/kg,周环比-0.85%。 供给端:本周生猪日均屠宰量为 13.93 万头,周环比变动+4.30%。 周观点:短期猪价或随供需博弈震荡,能繁增幅减少猪价持续性或超 预期。涌益咨询点评显示,偏集团样本仍维持稳定微增趋势,散户呈 现增幅减小趋势,其中华南散户保持稳定,西南部分地区散户有猪病 少量发生增加淘汰,北方散户观望为主。区别于往年行情好就积极补 栏,今年的上涨行情下并没有带动太多的补栏母猪,主要原因是这几 年行情的大起大落、疫病的不确定性、集团化的产能调节及变化,散 户更多处于观望心态。短期价格趋势来看,9 月全国多地出栏量均有 ...
计算机行业周报:计算机行业2024年中报总结
Guotou Securities· 2024-09-09 06:30
2024 年 09 月 09 日 计算机 计算机行业 2024 年中报总结 成长性分析:行业增速整体承压,拐点仍需等待 盈利能力和营运能力分析:毛利率有所降低,周转率维持稳定 细分板块:把握由产业和政策变革带来的主题性机会 从细分板块的增长来看,24H1 收入增长最快的前五个子版块分别为: 汽车智能网联(中位数 YoY+11.08%)、信创产业(YoY+10.53%)、 云 SaaS(YoY+9.27%)、工业软件(YoY+8.76%)、基础工具链 ( YoY+5.59% ) ; 增 速 后 五 的 板 块 为 : 人 工 智 能 算 法 和 应 用 (YoY-15.65%)、医疗信息化(YoY-12.30%)、空天信息化(YoY-7.76%)、 政务信息化(YoY-6.91%)、银行 IT(YoY-6.86%)。 从投资机会来看,由于基本面修复仍需等待,因此下半年主要围绕有 一定业绩支撑,同时具备产业或政策变革带来的主题性机会。产业变 革方面关注:AI 算力产业链(服务器、液冷、电源、高密度 IDC 等)、 华为鸿蒙产业链(原生鸿蒙有望今年发布);政策变革方面关注:信 创自主可控产业链(操作系统/数据库/芯 ...
绿竹生物-B:LZ901三期进行时,剑指百亿蓝海市场
Guotou Securities· 2024-09-09 04:08
公司深度分析 2024 年 09 月 09 日 绿竹生物-B(02480.HK) 证券研究报告 生物技术(HS) 投资评级 买入-A 首次评级 6 个月目标价 32.77 港元 股价 (2024-09-05) 21.50 港元 交易数据 总市值(百万港元) 4,352.65 流通市值(百万港元) 4,352.65 总股本(百万股) 202.45 流通股本(百万股) 202.45 12 个月价格区间 17.22/39.0 港元 LZ901 三期进行时,剑指百亿蓝海市场 绿竹生物:深耕行业二十余年,以创新驱动发展。绿竹生物成立于 2001 年 11 月,是一家致力于开发创新型人用疫苗和治疗性生物制剂 的生物技术公司。公司创始人孔健先生曾供职于卫生部北京生物制品 研究所,拥有 30 多年的生物制药行业经验,作为首席科学家带领公 司研究团队实现多项突破,自成立以来成功研发了 6 款疫苗产品,其 中液体 AC 流脑结合疫苗、AC-Hib 三联疫苗为全球首款,Hib 结合疫 苗(磷酸铝佐剂)、ACYW135 流脑多糖疫苗为中国首款,6 款疫苗均已 转让给智飞生物,其中 5 款疫苗已实现商业化。目前,公司共布局了 7 款在 ...
双底前的布局:正确的选择
Guotou Securities· 2024-09-09 03:46
Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is expected to improve in September, with a slight increase in the central-local fiscal expenditure growth rate from -5.92% to -5.86%, suggesting stabilization [1][7][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-dividend core assets, particularly in the public service sector, such as electricity, highways, and telecommunications, as key investment opportunities [1][7][8] - The report highlights the ongoing "high-cut low" trading strategy, with a focus on electronic and Hong Kong internet stocks on the right side, and the ChiNext Index and CSI 1000 Index on the left side [1][7][8] Group 2 - The report notes that the recent fluctuations in the A-share market are primarily influenced by external factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the upcoming U.S. elections affecting Sino-U.S. relations [1][7][8] - The report identifies the banking sector as a significant player in the A-share market, with the four major banks showing notable price fluctuations, driven by passive investment trends and the inflow of funds into the CSI 300 ETF [1][7][14] - The report suggests that the current high-cut low market environment may continue, with a focus on sectors such as technology growth and small-cap stocks, particularly in the context of policy-driven trading strategies [1][7][18]