Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the AR industry, driven by advancements in AI and optical display technologies [1]. Core Insights - The AR industry is entering a high growth phase, with AI enabling significant upgrades in user experience through enhanced object recognition, personalized experiences, real-time spatial mapping, and optimized performance [1]. - Global AR hardware shipments are projected to increase from 860,000 units in 2024 to 6.41 million units by 2027, representing a CAGR of 95.3%. The AR hardware market size is expected to grow from $6.3 billion to $11.8 billion between 2024 and 2029 [1]. - Major tech companies like Meta and Google are actively promoting AI-integrated AR glasses, with Meta's first AI-powered AR glasses expected to debut at the Meta Connect 2024 conference [1]. - Domestic AR manufacturers, such as Thunderbird Innovation, are accelerating the deployment of AI features like voice assistants and translation aids, contributing to the development of the AR ecosystem [1]. - Initially, AR devices are expected to function as companions to smartphones, focusing on display and transmission performance. The current market trend favors diffractive waveguides due to mass production advantages, while reflective waveguides may become a better option as production scales and costs decrease [1]. - The AR glasses market remains small compared to the approximately 1 billion smartphone market, but advancements in optical and chip technologies, along with AI-driven content ecosystem improvements, are anticipated to drive significant growth in AR glasses [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Chemical (601117) is "Buy" [2][4] Core Views - China Chemical signed new orders worth 244.8 billion yuan in the first eight months of 2024, representing a 20% increase year-on-year, with chemical engineering orders up 23% and overseas orders up 237% [3][4] - The company is focusing on expanding into high-value-added new materials, and its current price-to-book ratio (PB) is at 0.76, which is at a historical low [3][4] - The report maintains the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024-2026 at 0.98, 1.07, and 1.15 yuan, with growth rates of 10%, 9%, and 8% respectively [4] Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Chemical is a leading player in the petrochemical and chemical engineering sectors, with a strong market share in coal chemical engineering domestically and a leading position internationally [4] Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of 54.3 billion yuan for 2024E, with a growth rate of 10% expected [7] - The average price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected to be 7.6 for 2024, which is at the 15th percentile of its 10-year historical range [4][7] Market Trends - The manufacturing investment in the chemical sector increased by 10.7% year-on-year in August 2024, indicating a positive trend in the industry [4] - The report highlights that the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing investment is leading the overall manufacturing investment growth by 0.9 percentage points [4] Order Book and New Contracts - The cumulative new contracts signed in the first eight months of 2024 reached 256.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 20% [8] - Domestic new contracts decreased by 1% year-on-year, while overseas contracts surged by 237% [8] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on high-performance fibers, high-end nylon, biodegradable plastics, and other specialty chemicals to enhance its product offerings [4] - New projects in the new materials sector are expected to contribute positively to the company's revenue and operational efficiency [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry, maintaining the same rating as the previous report [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the issuance of the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting Long-term Funds to Enter the Market" by the Central Financial Office and the China Securities Regulatory Commission on September 26, which aims to encourage institutional funds to participate actively in the capital market, thereby boosting market confidence and long-term investment value [3][4]. - The policy encourages the development of equity products by public and private funds, and aims to optimize mechanisms for insurance, pension, bank wealth management, and trust funds to facilitate their participation in the capital market [3]. - The report recommends specific companies that are expected to benefit from the policy, including pure life insurance companies like China Life and New China Life, as well as financial information services and brokerage firms such as Guosheng Securities, Tonghuashun, and Huatai Securities [3]. Summary by Sections Policy Overview - The report discusses the recent policy aimed at breaking down barriers for institutional funds entering the market, which is expected to enhance the long-term investment value of the capital market [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends: 1. Pure life insurance companies benefiting from asset valuation increases: China Life and New China Life [3]. 2. Financial information services and brokerage firms benefiting from increased trading activity: Guosheng Securities, Tonghuashun, China Galaxy, CICC H, and Huatai Securities [3]. Financial Projections - The report includes earnings per share (EPS) projections for recommended companies, indicating expected growth in earnings over the next few years, with specific figures provided for 2023 to 2026 [7].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the shipping industry, specifically focusing on the oil shipping sector [2] Core Viewpoints - Saudi Arabia may increase oil production by the end of 2024, which could lead to a significant shift in OPEC+ production strategy and boost oil shipping demand [3][4] - Oil price declines, if driven by increased production, are likely to stimulate oil consumption and shipping volume growth, benefiting the oil shipping industry [4] - The oil shipping industry is expected to enter a "super bull market" due to rigid supply and growing demand, with capacity utilization already at a threshold in H1 2024 [4] - The report suggests focusing on OPEC+ production plans and US oil policies for future investment opportunities [4] Industry Analysis - Oil shipping demand has grown significantly over the past two years due to trade restructuring and refinery relocation to the East, with shipping distances significantly extended [4] - VLCC TCE rates for the Middle East-China route have rebounded to $39,000/day, while MR TCE rates for the Singapore-Australia route have dropped to $16,000/day [6] - Crude oil, as the "black blood" of the global economy, has shown long-term steady growth and resilience during economic fluctuations [7] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on the oil shipping super bull market rather than seasonal fluctuations, suggesting an overweight position in the sector [4] - Key companies recommended for investment include China Merchants Energy Shipping, COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation, China Merchants Shipping, and CSSC Shipping, all with "Overweight" ratings [4][8] Company Analysis - COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation (600026 SH) has a target price of RMB 14 19 with a 2024E EPS of RMB 1 15 and PE of 12 31 [8] - China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872 SH) has a target price of RMB 6 97 with a 2024E EPS of RMB 0 74 and PE of 9 46 [8] - China Merchants Oil Shipping (601975 SH) has a target price of RMB 3 06 with a 2024E EPS of RMB 0 44 and PE of 7 00 [8] - CSSC Shipping (03877 HK) has a target price of HKD 1 63 with a 2024E EPS of HKD 0 36 and PE of 4 58 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector, consistent with the previous rating [4]. Core Insights - The Central Bank's recent shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, including significant interest rate cuts, is expected to positively impact risk asset prices [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing asset prices and accelerating the reduction of real estate companies' balance sheets through policies aimed at revitalizing idle land [5]. - The report highlights that the current actual interest rates are high, which has increased the required return on assets, but the recent policy changes are likely to lower these return requirements, benefiting risk assets [5]. - The report suggests that the real estate companies' balance sheets have returned to levels similar to those in 2019, indicating a lag in the adjustment of property prices [5]. - The report identifies that the stabilization of prices is crucial for improving market expectations, rather than merely focusing on sales volume [5]. Summary by Related Sections Policy Implications - The report outlines key policy measures from the Central Political Bureau meeting, including strong interest rate cuts and support for revitalizing idle land, which are expected to stabilize asset prices and accelerate the reduction of real estate companies' liabilities [5]. Company Performance Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies in the sector, with all listed companies receiving an "Overweight" rating: - Vanke A: 2023A EPS of 1.02, 2024E EPS of 0.74, PE of 9.4 [6] - Poly Developments: 2023A EPS of 1.01, 2024E EPS of 0.95, PE of 8.5 [6] - China Merchants Shekou: 2023A EPS of 0.70, 2024E EPS of 0.79, PE of 12.2 [6] - China New Group: 2023A EPS of 0.91, 2024E EPS of 0.92, PE of 7.1 [6] - Binjiang Group: 2023A EPS of 0.81, 2024E EPS of 0.98, PE of 8.9 [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Viewpoints - The HarmonyOS NEXT architecture has undergone a comprehensive upgrade, enhancing user experience through AI empowerment and is set to officially launch public testing on October 8, 2024, marking a significant step towards full commercial use [3][4]. - The introduction of Harmony PC is expected to drive unexpected growth in the industry, filling a crucial gap in Huawei's smart IoT ecosystem and catering to deep office and entertainment needs [4]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - The HarmonyOS NEXT launch event was successfully held, with participation from major partners like Baidu, Bilibili, and Tencent, indicating strong industry collaboration [4]. Technological Advancements - The new system architecture of HarmonyOS NEXT shows over a 10% performance improvement compared to Linux, with a threefold increase in cross-device connection speed and a 20% reduction in power consumption [4]. - The architecture includes a fully autonomous kernel, distributed soft bus technology, and enhanced AI capabilities, facilitating seamless resource sharing and service flow across devices [4]. Market Potential - As of mid-September 2024, over 10,000 native Harmony applications have been launched, covering 18 verticals and meeting 99.9% of user engagement time [4]. - The report highlights that the transition to Harmony PC will enhance user scenarios and is anticipated to significantly boost the Harmony ecosystem's growth [4]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends stocks such as Softcom Power, Tuo Wei Information, and China Software International for investment, while suggesting that Runhe Software and Chengmai Technology will also benefit from the developments in the Harmony ecosystem [4][6].

股 票 研 究 ——食品饮料行业更新 [table_Authors] 訾猛(分析师) 陈力宇(分析师) 021-38676442 021-38677618 zimeng@gtjas.com chenliyu@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880513120002 S0880522090005 证 券 研 究 报 告 政策提振信心，重视超跌成长 [Table_Industry] 食品饮料 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.09.26 本报告导读： 中共中央政治局 9 月 26 日召开会议分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作，政策定调 更加积极，显著提振市场信心，叠加上海将发放消费券，食品饮料板块预期回暖。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 食品饮料《政策催化，首选超跌成长》2024.09.24 食品饮料《转折期的消费路径选择》2024.09.22 食品饮料《白酒预期重构，继续重视休食》 2024.09.22 食品饮料《白酒中秋平淡，啤酒环比改善》 2024.09.17 食品饮料《金秋下的白酒：弱改善、强分化，份 额优先》 ...

股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.09.26 评级： | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|---------------------------| | | | | | | [table_Authors] 韩其成 ( 分析师 ) | 郭浩然 ( 分析师 ) | | | 021-38676162 | 010-83939793 | | | hanqicheng8@gtjas.com | guohaoran025968@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880516030004 | S0880524020002 | 本报告导读： 复盘建筑历史行情，宽松政策下基建投资加速带来业绩与股价提升。当前政策加码 超预期，建议增持产业趋势向好、三季报超预期的高股息低 PB 央国企龙头。 投资要点： [复盘Table_Summary] 宽松政策下基建投资加速，央国企竞争优势强新签订单提升。(1)从 基建投资增速看，四万亿推出后从 2008 年 11 月的 20%加速至 2009 年 6 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an **Overweight** rating on the Chinese whiskey industry, suggesting a positive outlook for the sector [3][6] Core Viewpoints - The Chinese whiskey industry is transitioning from the **introduction phase** to the **growth phase**, driven by the rising demand for personalized and cost-effective products among younger consumers [3][4] - The industry is expected to shift from a **niche market** symbolizing status to a **mass-market** product, with penetration rates accelerating [4][6] - The report highlights the potential for **local brands** to gain market share as domestic production reduces tax burdens and aligns with the trend of affordable consumption [4][58] Industry Overview - Whiskey is the **leading spirit globally** by sales volume and value, with 2023 global sales reaching **$144.75 billion** and **4.17 billion liters** [10][11] - The **Asia-Pacific region** is the largest and fastest-growing market for whiskey, accounting for **61% of global sales** in 2023, with a **4.1% CAGR** from 2018 to 2023 [16] - The global whiskey market is dominated by **six major players**, with a **61.3% market share** in 2023 [16] Market Dynamics in China - The Chinese whiskey market has grown significantly, with sales increasing from **¥4.56 billion** in 2017 to **¥8 billion** in 2023, a **9.8% CAGR** [42] - Imported whiskey has also seen rapid growth, with import value rising from **$136 million** in 2017 to **$585 million** in 2023, a **27.6% CAGR** [42] - The market is **highly concentrated**, with the top six companies holding a **76.2% market share** in 2023, led by **Pernod Ricard** and **Diageo** [45] Consumer Trends - Younger consumers, particularly the **post-90s generation**, are driving demand for **personalized and innovative drinking experiences**, favoring whiskey over traditional spirits [54][55] - The shift from **status-driven consumption** to **personal enjoyment** is evident, with **70% of consumers** viewing whiskey as a symbol of individuality and freedom [55] - Non-on-trade channels, such as **home consumption**, are growing, accounting for **41.4% of sales** in 2023, up from **27.1%** in 2009 [48][49] Localization and Future Growth - The **localization of whiskey production** in China is expected to reduce costs and improve affordability, with **43 domestic distilleries** established as of 2023 [58] - The first locally produced whiskey brands are anticipated to launch in **2024 or 2025**, targeting the **mass market** with competitive pricing [58][59] - The report predicts that whiskey prices in China will gradually align with global averages, moving from **$100/L** to **$50-60/L**, enhancing its **cost-performance ratio** [58][60]

Education Industry - The investment rating for the education industry is positive, indicating a recovery phase for leading companies in the sector [1] - The core viewpoint emphasizes supply clearing and transformation progress, with leading education training companies benefiting from these changes [1] - Key companies analyzed include卓越教育集团, 思考乐教育, and 天立国际控股, highlighting their strategic moves and compliance efforts [1][1][1] Gold and Jewelry Industry - The investment rating for the gold and jewelry industry is optimistic, focusing on the rise of local luxury brands [2] - The report discusses the success of老铺黄金 in leading national trends through new craftsmanship and brand strength [2] - 周大生 is noted for its accelerated recovery and store expansion, optimizing its market position [2][2] Cross-Border E-commerce - The investment rating for the cross-border e-commerce sector is favorable, with a focus on platform competition and efficiency [3] - The report highlights the rapid brand growth of 绿联科技 as it accelerates its international expansion [3] Tourism and Service Consumption - The investment rating for the tourism and service consumption sector is positive, with a focus on value extraction in the service industry [3] - The免税行业 is experiencing a boost in local consumption due to new policies for city stores [3] - Companies like 九华旅游 and 锦江酒店 are positioned to benefit from improved demand and structural optimization [3][3][3] Restaurant and Beverage Industry - The investment rating for the restaurant and beverage industry is optimistic, particularly for现制茶饮 with significant growth potential [4] - 瑞幸咖啡 is recognized as a leader in the Chinese coffee market, leveraging digitalization for operational efficiency [4] - 达势股份 is noted for its growth initiatives and operational improvements [4][4] Other Consumer Sectors - The investment rating for various consumer sectors is positive, with a focus on cost-effectiveness and convenience [5] - 名创优品 is analyzed for its potential in the U.S. dollar store market, while 途虎 -W is recognized as a leading O2O automotive service provider [5] - Companies like 叮咚买菜 and 爱施德 are expected to benefit from improved market conditions and strong resource channels [5][5][5]