Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry is "Overweight" [2][3] Core Views - The computer industry has formed a triple bottom, with expectations of stabilizing and recovering profit margins. The dual drivers of demand and policy for "Xinchuang" (information technology innovation) and new productivity are expected to boost growth, alongside ongoing advancements in AI and cloud computing technologies [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Review - The computer sector has experienced a significant decline, with the index dropping 32.17% from January 1 to September 23, 2024, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 25.67% [6][11] - The industry has been in a bottoming phase, with major companies showing better resilience compared to smaller firms. Profit margins are near the breakeven point, indicating limited room for further decline [8][16] 2. Direction One: Xinchuang and Huawei's Computing Ecosystem - Supportive policies for Xinchuang are being introduced, facilitating regular procurement and accelerating large orders. The focus is on critical sectors such as government, finance, and energy [37][38] - The Huawei computing ecosystem is evolving, becoming a core market player, which is expected to drive rapid development in the sector [37][41] 3. Direction Two: New Productivity in Vehicle Networking and Low-altitude Economy - Emerging technologies like vehicle networking and low-altitude economy are receiving strong policy support, with local enthusiasm remaining high despite short-term market focus waning [3][4] - Key companies in this area include Tongxingbao, Qianfang Technology, and Les Information, which are positioned to benefit from these developments [3][4] 4. Direction Three: AI and Cloud Computing - Breakthroughs in AI models and the surge in computing power are driving the industry towards long-term growth. The demand for high-quality data is increasing, and self-generating data trends are emerging [3][4] - Recommended companies in the AI sector include iFlytek, Hongsoft Technology, and Wanjing Technology, which are expected to benefit from these advancements [3][4] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main areas: Xinchuang, new productivity, and AI. Specific stock recommendations include Kingsoft Office, Softcom Power, and iFlytek, among others [3][4] 6. Valuation and Fund Positioning - The current valuation of the computer industry is at a historical low, with the PE ratio at 31.84, placing it in the 2.75% percentile over the past five years, indicating high investment value [23][27] - Fund allocation in the computer sector has decreased to 2.62%, reflecting a low allocation compared to historical levels [34][36]

股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.09.27 [table_Authors] 吴晓飞(分析师) 管正月(分析师) 0755-23976003 021-38032026 wuxiaofei@gtjas.com guanzhengyue@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880517080003 S0880521030003 行 业 事 件 快 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 8 月旺季延续，行业同比高增长 [Table_Industry] 汽车 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 ——2024 年 8 月中大排摩托车数据点评 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 [Table_Report] 相关报告 汽车《乘用车板块性行情不断强化》2024.09.22 汽车《8 月零售环比增长，新能源表现持续走 强》2024.09.12 汽车《地方购车政策持续加码，销量有望再提 速》2024.09.11 汽车《出海加速，自主品牌摩托走向全球》 2024.09.08 汽车《特斯拉 fsd ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for both the aviation and oil transportation sectors [1][2]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to see a record high in passenger flow during the National Day holiday, with resilient demand and a gradual recovery in supply and demand dynamics. The report anticipates that the profitability of airlines will improve as supply and demand recover [2][3]. - In the oil transportation sector, the report suggests a cautious approach to seasonal speculation, emphasizing the potential for a super bull market in oil transportation due to expected increases in crude oil production [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Aviation Sector - The report highlights that the pre-sale of tickets for the National Day holiday is accelerating, with an increase in ticket inquiries. The price drop during the holiday period is narrowing, and passenger flow is expected to reach a historical high for the same period [2][3]. - The recovery of the aviation supply and demand is projected to continue into 2023-2024, with fleet turnover gradually improving and passenger load factors expected to return to normal levels by 2024. The report suggests that the profitability of airlines will rise as supply and demand stabilize [3]. - Recommendations include maintaining "Overweight" ratings for China National Aviation, Spring Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and others [3][12]. Oil Transportation Sector - The report indicates that trade rhythms will continue to dominate short-term freight rates, with recent increases in freight rates being controlled to manage trade dynamics. The TCE for VLCC from the Middle East to China has decreased from nearly $40,000 to $32,000 [3][11]. - The report notes that the TCE for refined oil transportation has stabilized at $17,000, with expectations for strong performance during the peak season despite uncertainties [3][11]. - The report emphasizes that the increase in crude oil production will benefit oil transportation demand, suggesting a strategic focus on the oil transportation super bull market [3][12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry [3][5]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that recent policy measures have significantly boosted market confidence, leading to a recovery in the food and beverage sector. The sector is considered undervalued, with expectations of a rebound driven by policy support [5][9]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on growth stocks that have experienced significant declines, particularly in the liquor and snack segments [5][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Support and Market Expectations - Since September 24, policies have become increasingly proactive, enhancing market expectations and improving liquidity in the capital market. Key measures include lowering reserve requirements and interest rates on existing mortgages [9][11]. - The issuance of consumption vouchers by local governments, such as Shanghai's allocation of 500 million yuan for various sectors, is expected to stimulate short-term consumption and has a multiplier effect on the economy [9][11]. 2. Liquor Sector: Recovery and Leadership - The liquor sector is characterized by its cyclical nature, with significant rebounds observed. The SW liquor index rose by 29.5% in a week, outperforming other sectors [11][12]. - Major liquor brands such as Wuliangye and Moutai have shown substantial weekly gains, indicating a recovery in consumer demand and market sentiment [13][12]. 3. Consumer Goods: Focus on Snacks - The consumer goods sector is experiencing a recovery, with a notable emphasis on snack products, which are expected to perform well due to ongoing channel benefits and market dynamics [14][15]. - The report suggests that snack companies like Three Squirrels and Qiaqia Foods are prime candidates for investment due to their growth potential and market positioning [15][16]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends increasing positions in undervalued growth stocks, particularly in the liquor and snack sectors. Specific stocks highlighted for increased investment include Wuliangye, Moutai, and various snack brands [15][16]. - The report also suggests maintaining positions in stable beer and beverage companies, such as Tsingtao Brewery and Master Kong, as they are expected to benefit from the recovery in consumer spending [15][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [3][5]. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is currently at a bottoming phase, with expectations for demand improvement and supply restructuring. Leading companies are expected to enhance their competitive advantages [5]. - Recent policy announcements from the People's Bank of China and the Central Political Bureau are anticipated to stabilize real estate sales and new construction, which will positively impact steel demand. The real estate sector's contribution to steel demand has decreased to below 20%, reducing its negative drag on the industry [5]. - The report highlights that steel companies with low price-to-book (PB) ratios may experience a revaluation, as recent regulatory guidance encourages long-term loss-making companies to develop valuation enhancement plans [5]. - Mergers and acquisitions within the steel industry are expected to accelerate, potentially opening up growth opportunities for leading steel enterprises and improving overall industry profitability [5]. Summary by Sections - **Investment Rating**: The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel sector, with specific recommendations for companies such as Hualing Steel, Baosteel, and New Steel [3][5]. - **Demand Outlook**: The report notes a rebound in demand expectations due to recent policy adjustments aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and supporting infrastructure spending [5]. - **Valuation Improvement**: The report discusses the potential for value re-evaluation of steel companies, particularly those with PB ratios below 1, in light of new regulatory guidance [5]. - **Mergers and Acquisitions**: The report anticipates an increase in industry consolidation, which could enhance the growth prospects for leading firms and improve overall industry profitability [5].

股 票 研 究 [table_Authors] 彭磊(分析师) 周明頔(研究助理) 010-83939806 010-83939792 penglei018712@gtjas.com zhoumingdi028698@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880518100003 S0880123070156 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 运-20 首次飞抵南非，美军将再次测试高超音速武器 [Table_Industry] 军工 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 本报告导读： 军工板块微跌，中俄海军联合演训。运-20 首次飞抵南非，美军将再次测试高超音速 武器。大国博弈加剧是长期趋势，军工长期向好。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 军工板块微跌，中俄海军联合演训。1) 上证综指上涨 1.21%，创业 板指数上涨 0.09%，国防军工指数下跌 0.15%，跑输大盘 1.36 个百 分点，排名第 27/29。2) 中俄"北部·联合-2024"演习第一阶段顺 利完成。3）我国成功发射两颗北斗导航卫星，开展下一代北斗系统 新技术试验试用。4）中国和尼泊尔将举行"珠峰友谊- ...

Investment Rating - Maintains an **Overweight** rating with a target price of **33.04 CNY** [3][5] - The target price is based on a **27x PE multiple** for 2024, reflecting the company's leading industry position and accelerated overseas expansion [3] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 earnings forecast is in line with expectations, with **net profit attributable to shareholders** expected to grow by **22.7%-26.1% YoY** to **723-743 million CNY** [3] - **Non-GAAP net profit** is projected to increase by **26.4%-30.0% YoY** to **695-715 million CNY** [3] - Growth is driven by new energy and intelligent actuator businesses, with **Q3 2024 net profit** expected to rise by **13.2%-22.3% YoY** [3] - The company is expanding its **Vietnam-based smart actuator production capacity** with an additional investment of **30 million CNY**, further diversifying its product lines [3] - The company is accelerating its global expansion, particularly in Europe, with the establishment of a **Hungary production base**, enhancing its market position through technological upgrades [3] Financial Summary - **Revenue** is forecasted to grow from **6,838 million CNY in 2022** to **14,900 million CNY in 2026**, with a **CAGR of 21.6%** [4] - **Net profit attributable to shareholders** is expected to increase from **582 million CNY in 2022** to **1,643 million CNY in 2026**, with a **CAGR of 29.8%** [4] - **EPS** is projected to rise from **0.69 CNY in 2022** to **1.94 CNY in 2026** [4] - **ROE** is expected to improve from **7.9% in 2022** to **14.4% in 2026**, reflecting enhanced profitability [4] Market and Valuation - The company's **market cap** stands at **21,180 million CNY**, with a **52-week price range of 18.80-29.59 CNY** [6] - The **current P/E ratio** is **25.94x**, expected to decline to **12.89x by 2026**, indicating potential undervaluation [4][6] - The **P/B ratio** is **2.66x**, projected to decrease to **1.85x by 2026**, suggesting improving asset efficiency [4][7] Business Expansion and Strategy - The company is focusing on **precision gear manufacturing** and expanding its product lines through **Huanqu Technology**, covering both power transmission and intelligent actuator components [3] - The **Vietnam investment** aims to strengthen the company's presence in the **smart actuator market**, leveraging its expertise in gear technology [3] - The **Hungary production base** is part of the company's strategy to consolidate its position in the **European market**, supported by advancements in **electric drive technology** [3] Financial Ratios and Performance - **Gross margin** is expected to improve from **21.1% in 2022** to **23.0% in 2026**, driven by higher value-added products [11] - **EBIT margin** is forecasted to increase from **10.5% in 2022** to **13.0% in 2026**, reflecting operational efficiency gains [11] - **Net profit margin** is projected to rise from **8.6% in 2022** to **11.5% in 2026**, indicating stronger profitability [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company has strong competitiveness in rice and corn seeds, particularly with high-quality genetically modified corn varieties gaining market acceptance in the 2024 planting season. The increasing penetration of genetically modified corn is expected to expand the company's corn seed promotion area, driving performance growth [2][8] - The target price has been adjusted to 15.90 yuan from the previous 24.68 yuan, while maintaining the "Buy" rating. The company has achieved consolidation and expansion in overseas business, leading to an upward revision of revenue and profit forecasts for 2024 [8][9] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 9,223 million yuan in 2023 to 10,262 million yuan in 2024, representing a 11.3% increase. Net profit is expected to rise significantly from 200 million yuan in 2023 to 534 million yuan in 2024, marking a 167.1% increase [9][11] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.41 yuan in 2024, increasing to 0.53 yuan in 2025 and 0.76 yuan in 2026 [8][9] - The company’s net asset return rate is expected to improve from 3.6% in 2023 to 9.9% in 2024, and further to 15.3% by 2026 [9][11] Business Development - The company is a leader in hybrid rice seed business globally, with new brands and varieties rapidly gaining market share, contributing to strong sales growth. The latest rice varieties have shown significant breakthroughs in pest resistance and other desirable traits [8][9] - The company leads in hybrid corn seed business in China, with its genetically modified corn varieties expected to see increased market share as planting areas expand in 2024 [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the lithium battery sector, maintaining the previous rating of "Overweight" [3]. Core Insights - In August 2024, China's new energy vehicle (NEV) sales reached 1.1 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 30.0% and a month-on-month increase of 11.0%. The penetration rate reached 44.8% [5][8]. - The report highlights that the current new energy vehicle supply chain is at the bottom of the cycle, with expectations for gradual improvement in overall demand due to the peak season for NEVs and stronger-than-expected energy storage demand [5][34]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of leading lithium battery companies and suggests focusing on specific stocks that are expected to benefit from the market recovery [5][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic New Energy Vehicle Sales - In August 2024, China's NEV production and sales were 1.092 million and 1.1 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 29.6% and 30.0%. Cumulatively, from January to August 2024, sales reached 7.034 million units, up 31.0% year-on-year [8][10]. - The penetration rate of NEVs in August reached 44.8%, with significant sales concentrated in the 150,000 to 200,000 price range [11][13]. 2. Global Market Performance - The global power battery installation in July 2024 reached 69.8 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 19.0%. Chinese companies dominate the market, with CATL holding a market share of 44.5% in August [5][17]. - In August, NEV sales in Europe decreased significantly, with a total of 116,700 units sold, down 40.6% year-on-year and 20.2% month-on-month [22][23]. - In the U.S., NEV sales reached 145,000 units in August, showing a year-on-year increase of 20.4% and a month-on-month increase of 14.7% [30]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading lithium battery companies such as CATL, BYD, and others, as well as companies in the consumer battery sector benefiting from the recovery in consumer electronics and AI innovation [5][34]. - Specific stocks recommended include CATL, BYD, and others, with a focus on those showing strong performance and potential for recovery [5][34].

调降存量房贷利率，利好地产端改善，超跌的地产后周期家电个股迎来反弹机会。9月24日国新办举行新闻发布会：1）宣布降低存量房贷利率和统 一房贷最低首付比例。引导商业银行将存量房贷利率降至新发放贷款利率的附近，预计平均降幅大约在0.5个百分点左右。统一首套房和二套房的房 贷最低首付比例，将全国层面的二套房贷款最低首付比例由当前的25%下调到15%。将5月份人民银行创设的3000亿元保障性住房再贷款，中央银 行资金的支持比例由原来的60%提高到100%，增强对银行和收购主体的市场化激励。家电板块中，大家电更新需求较高，降低存量房贷利率有利于 住宅端销量环比改善，从而拉动大电更新。我们预计，安装属性更强且前期受地产端压制比较强的厨电板块优先受益。受益标的华帝股份、老板电 器。 证监会加速引导中长期资金入市，超跌且破净个股有望迎来反弹，高分红高股息的股票有望优先受益。创设股票回购、增持专项再贷款，引导银行向 上市公司和主要股东提供贷款，支持回购和增持股票。从破净改善的角度，受益标的有日出东方、奥佳华、帅丰电器、阳光照明，参考净现金/市值 比以及分红股息率角度考虑，受益标的有海信视像、海信家电、美的集团、格力电器等。 以 ...