国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 [Table_subIndustry] 证 券 研 究 报 告 ---新能源乘用车 2024 年 8 月销量点评报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|-------|-----------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 吴晓飞 ( 分析师 ) | | 郁研 ( 研究助理 | ) | | | | | | 0755-23976003 | | 021-38031026 | | | | | | | wuxiaofei@gtjas.com | | yuyan028679@gtjas.com | | | | | | 登记编号 | S0880517080003 | | S088012 ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——零售出海观察系列第 42 本报告导读： [Table_Report] 相关报告 投资要点： 8 月出口环比改善，静待亚马逊秋促开启旺季 [Table_Industry] 批零贸易业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|--------------------------| | | | | | | [table_Authors] 刘越男 ( 分析师 ) | 陈笑 ( 分析师 ) | | | 021-38677706 | 021-38677906 | | | liuyuenan@gtjas.com | chenxiao015813@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880516030003 | S0880518020002 | | --- | --- | |-------------- ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 | --- | |-------| | | | | | | 行 业 事 件 快 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——中国空军受邀参加首届埃及航展事件快评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------------|-----------------------------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 彭磊 ( 分析师 ) | 杨天昊 ( 分析师 ) | | | | | 010-83939806 | 010-83939791 | | | | | penglei018712@gtjas.com | yangtianhao027639@gtjas.com | | | | 登记编号 | S0880518100003 | S0880523080010 | | | 本报告导读： 中国空军运-20 与歼-10 表演机受邀参加首届埃及航 ...

Industry Overview - The basic chemical industry maintains an "Overweight" rating, with the sector showing signs of recovery in Q2 2024, although the overall market remains in a cyclical bottoming phase [1][4] - In H1 2024, the basic chemical index (CI005006) fell by 19.43%, underperforming the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices, which fell by 1.92% and 14.24%, respectively [4] - The industry's revenue in H1 2024 was RMB 1226.323 billion, a slight decrease of 0.91% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 74 billion, down 4.79% YoY [4] - Q2 2024 saw a recovery, with revenue increasing by 3.04% YoY and 3.46% QoQ, and net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 2.59% YoY and 2.69% QoQ [4] Key Sub-Sectors Performance - In H1 2024, over half of the sub-sectors saw YoY growth in net profit, with notable improvements in nylon, rubber products, and compound fertilizers [4] - Q2 2024 saw significant YoY and QoQ improvements in net profit for sub-sectors such as nitrogen fertilizers, compound fertilizers, and phosphorus fertilizers [4] - The nylon sub-sector saw a remarkable YoY increase of 1243.75% in net profit, while the rubber products sub-sector grew by 56.12% YoY [12][13] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Capital expenditure in the industry decreased by 16.5% YoY in H1 2024, but construction in progress remained high, indicating a need for further digestion of capacity [4][22] - Demand recovery is slow due to insufficient effective demand, with upward momentum expected to take time to materialize [4] - The industry is in a bottoming phase, with supply-side disruptions and event-driven catalysts creating investment opportunities in sub-sectors like dye chemicals, fluorine chemicals, and civil explosives [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with cost advantages and growth potential, such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Longbai Group, and others [4] - Short-term opportunities are expected in rigid supply products like MDI, titanium concentrate, and phosphorus ore, with a potential rebound in H2 2024 driven by domestic policy support and overseas liquidity easing [4] - The industry is expected to gradually emerge from the cyclical bottom in 2025, with a mild recovery anticipated [4] Company Highlights - **Wanhua Chemical**: Q2 2024 performance met expectations, with multiple projects entering production phases, including the expansion of MDI capacity in Fujian [40][41] - **Hualu Hengsheng**: Q2 2024 results were in line with expectations, with the Jingzhou Phase II project nearing completion [42][43] - **Longbai Group**: The company's titanium dioxide and titanium concentrate production increased significantly in H1 2024, with ongoing projects expected to drive future growth [44][45] - **Huafon Chemical**: Q2 2024 performance met expectations, with the company benefiting from cost advantages and expanding its industrial chain [46][47] - **Juhua Group**: Q2 2024 results were in line with expectations, with the company maintaining its leading position in the refrigerant quota market [48][49] - **Yangnong Chemical**: The company's H1 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with the Liaoning Youchuang project nearing trial production [50][51] - **Xingfa Group**: Q2 2024 performance improved QoQ, with high phosphorus ore prices expected to sustain profitability [52] - **Guoci Materials**: Q2 2024 results met expectations, with the company focusing on long-term growth in multiple product lines [53][54] - **Bluesky Technology**: H1 2024 performance was in line with expectations, with strong growth in life sciences and metal resource sectors [55] - **Ruifeng New Materials**: Q2 2024 results were slightly below expectations, but the company maintained a strong export trend [56][57] - **Sailun Tire**: Q2 2024 performance met expectations, with overseas projects progressing smoothly [58][59]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2024 was below expectations, with revenue of 13.411 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 10.44%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.007 billion yuan, down 39.56% year-on-year. The decline in performance is attributed to price pressures in the silicon iron and PVC industries, which are at the bottom of the cycle. However, the company's cash flow remains robust, and share buybacks combined with high dividends highlight its investment value [3][4]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2025 has been revised down to 1.959 billion yuan and 2.124 billion yuan, respectively, from previous estimates of 3.356 billion yuan and 3.643 billion yuan. A new forecast for 2026 has been added at 2.374 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.70, 0.76, and 0.85 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3][4]. - The company benefits from a cost advantage in silicon iron production, with electricity costs accounting for 60-70% of production costs. The company produces its own coal and has its own power plant, resulting in lower electricity costs compared to industry averages. This cost advantage extends to other chemical products such as PVC and caustic soda [3][4]. - The silicon iron industry is currently at a low point, with prices affecting the company's profitability. The silicon iron market experienced significant price fluctuations in the first half of 2024, primarily driven by demand from the steel industry, which has seen declining profitability [3][4]. - The company has announced plans for share buybacks and high dividend payouts, with a dividend payout ratio of 77.11% in 2023, an increase of 34.87 percentage points from 2022. This reflects the company's confidence in its development and enhances its investment value [3][4]. Financial Summary - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 13.411 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.44% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.007 billion yuan, down 39.56% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company's operating cash flow for the first half of 2024 was 1.211 billion yuan, indicating stable cash flow despite the industry's downturn [3][4]. - The target price for the company has been adjusted to 10.50 yuan, down from the previous target of 12.74 yuan, based on a valuation of 15 times PE for 2024 [3][5].

| --- | |-------| | | | | | | 行 业 事 件 快 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------------|------------------------------------------| | | | ——国航南航首架 C919 飞机交付事件快评 | | | [table_Authors] 彭磊 ( 分析师 ) | 杨天昊 ( 分析师 ) | | | 010-83939806 | 010-83939791 | | | penglei018712@gtjas.com | yangtianhao027639@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880518100003 | S0880523080010 | 本报告导读： 国航与南航首架 C919 飞机交付，标志着 C919 飞机即将开启多用户运营新阶段。我 们认为，随着 C919 产能爬坡 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.09.11 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------| | 出口环比回升主因气候因素扰动 \n—— 8 月贸易数据点评 | [Table_Authors] | 黄汝南 ( 分析师 ) \n010-83939779 \nhuangrunan@gtjas.com | | | 登记编号 | S0880523080001 | | 本报告导读： | | | | 8 月出口动能回升， 7-8 月出口同比增速的大幅波动的主因或在于台风与上年错位， 而月底登陆产生跨月影响也 ...

股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Summary] 维持增持评级，维持目标价 67.26 元。公司域控制器、Efuse 等产品 正逐渐放量，国内新势力和宝马、大众等全球客户订单充足，公司 有望实现量价齐升，业绩有望持续增长。下调公司 2024 年 EPS 预 测为 2.04（-0.26）元，维持 2025-2026 年的 EPS 预测为 2.76/3.39 元， 维持目标价 67.26 元，维持增持评级。 公司推出域控制器和 Efuse 等新产品，推动单车价值量大幅提升。 公司将受益于汽车智能化的行业趋势，底盘域控制器和车身域控制 器已配套供应客户，参股公司的智能驾驶域控制器和智能座舱域控 制器也已获得项目定点，可配套的单车价值量不断提升。公司智能 配电 Efuse 已获得吉利、理想、大众等客户定点，未来有望不断开 拓更多客户及车型。 理想等新势力客户逐步放量，驱动业绩持续增长。近年来公司开拓 了小鹏、理想、蔚来和极氪等新势力客户，未来有望持续深化合作， 打造更丰富的增长点。2023 年理想汽车成为公司前五大客户，2024 上半年理想汽车在公司营收占比达到 11%， ...

股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.09.11 ——2024 年上半年房地产中报综述 继续出清 [Table_Industry] 房地产 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|----------------------|---------------------------| | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 谢皓宇 ( 分析师 ) | 白淑媛 ( 分析师 ) | 黄可意 ( 研究助理 ) | | | 010-83939826 | 021-38675923 | 010-83939815 | | | xiehaoyu@gtjas.com | baishuyuan@gtjas.com | huangkeyi028691@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880518010002 | S0880518010004 | S0880123070129 | ...

股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 贸易摩擦催化产能转移，多元布局公司占优 [Table_Industry] 家用电器业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 ——复盘贸易战及全球产能再布局影响 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|---------------------------|----------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 蔡雯娟 ( 分析师 ) | 李汉颖 ( 研究助理 ) | 谢丛睿 ( 分析师 ) | | | | 021-38031654 | 010-83939833 | 021-38038437 | | | | caiwenjuan024354@gtjas.com | lihanying026725@gtjas.com | xiecongrui@gtjas.com | | | 登记编号 | S0880521050002 | S0880122070046 | S ...