国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.09.08 产量边际回升，但库存维持下降趋势 [Table_Industry] 钢铁 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|-------------------|----------------------| | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 李鹏飞 ( 分析师 ) | 魏雨迪 ( 分析师 ) | 王宏玉 ( 分析师 ) | | | 010-83939783 | 021-38674763 | 021-38038343 | | | lipengfei@gtjas.com | weiyudi@gtjas.com | wanghongyu@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880519080003 | S08805 ...

股 票 研 究 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.09.08 关注竞争优势，消化悲观预期 [Table_Industry] 建材 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|---------------------|---------------------------| | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 鲍雁辛 ( 分析师 ) | 花健祎 ( 分析师 ) | 巫恺洋 ( 研究助理 ) | | | 0755-23976830 | 0755-23976858 | 0755-23976666 | | | baoyanxin@gtjas.com | huajianyi@gtjas.com | wukaiyang028675@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880513070005 | S0880521010001 | S0880123070145 | 本 ...

股 票 研 究 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------------|--------------------|-----------------------| | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 徐强 ( 分析师 ) | 邵潇 ( 分析师 ) | 于歆 ( 分析师 ) | | | 010-83939805 | 0755-23976520 | 021-38038345 | | | xuqiang@gtjas.com | shaoxiao@gtjas.com | yuxin024466@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880517040002 | S0880517070004 | S0880523050005 | 本报告导读： 上周 CEA 周成交 154 万吨，周成交均价 88 元/吨。地方碳配额周成交 50 万吨，周 成交均价 68 元/吨。全国 CCER 周成交 24.73 万吨。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 环保板块上 ...

股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.09.09 海 外 公 司 （ 中 国 香 港 ） 证 券 研 究 报 告 MS III 期获 FDA 批准，海外空间打开 诺诚健华(9969) [Table_Industry] 医药 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——诺诚健华跟踪点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------------|----------|-------|--------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 丁丹 ( 分析师 ) | 付子阳 ( | | 研究助理 | | | | 0755-23976735 | | | 0755-23976666 | | | | dingdan@gtjas.com | | | fuziyang028496@gtjas.com | | | 登记编号 | S0880514030001 | | | S0880123100022 | | ...

股 票 研 究 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------------|--------------------|-----------------------| | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 徐强 ( 分析师 ) | 邵潇 ( 分析师 ) | 于歆 ( 分析师 ) | | | 010-83939805 | 0755-23976520 | 021-38038345 | | | xuqiang@gtjas.com | shaoxiao@gtjas.com | yuxin024466@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880517040002 | S0880517070004 | S0880523050005 | 本报告导读： 上周 CEA 周成交 154 万吨，周成交均价 88 元/吨。地方碳配额周成交 50 万吨，周 成交均价 68 元/吨。全国 CCER 周成交 24.73 万吨。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 环保板块上 ...

股 票 研 究 [Table_subIndustry] 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——《从航运看造船》系列研究之一 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------------|----------|--------------------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 岳鑫 ( 分析师 ) | 尹嘉骐 ( | 分析师 | ) | | | | 0755-23976758 | | 021-38038322 | | | | | yuexin@gtjas.com | | yinjiaqi@gtjas.com | | | | 登记编号 | S0880514030006 | | S0880524030004 | | | 本报告导读： 航运景气与造船周期紧密相关。复盘二十年周期，以史为鉴，探讨周期异同。过去 三年航运景气接力上行，再次驱动造船周期。预计造船产能约束将好于上轮周期。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 2002-2008 ...

股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 投资要点： | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------| | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入 | 25,679 | 25,119 | 15,805 | 21,285 | 24,385 | | (+/-)% | 144.8% | -2.2% | -37.1% | 34.7% | 14.6% | | 净利润（归母） | 2,311 | 1,654 | 1,209 | 1,578 | 2,026 | | (+/-)% | 60.3% | -28.4% | -26.9% | 30.6% | 28.4% | | 每股净收益（元） | 2.07 | 1.48 | 1.08 | 1.41 | 1.81 | | 净资产收益率 (%) | 23.4% ...

股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——科顺股份 2024 年半年报点评 | --- | |-----------------------------------| | | | [table_Authors] 鲍雁辛 ( 分析师 ) | | 0755-23976830 | | baoyanxin@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 S0880513070005 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|---------------------|-------|---------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 花健 | | 祎 ( 分析师 ) | | 巫恺洋 ( 研究助理 ) | | | | 0755-23976858 | | 0755-23976666 | | | | huajianyi@gtjas.com | | wukaiyang028675@gtjas.com | | | | S0880521010001 | | S0880123070145 | 本报告导读： 公司发布 202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2]. Core Views - Current daily coal consumption remains high, suggesting that the timing for a decline in coal prices may be later than previously anticipated. The short-term coal price is expected to stabilize due to sustained high consumption levels [2][3]. - The coal sector's performance pressure is expected to be largely alleviated by the first half of 2024, with a bottoming out of industry ROE anticipated between Q2 and Q3 of 2024. The cyclical nature of the coal industry is expected to weaken, leading to more predictable and stable profits for leading companies [3]. Summary by Sections Daily Consumption and Price Trends - Daily coal consumption remains elevated, driven by high temperatures and a decrease in the proportion of non-electric coal self-generation. As of the first week of September 2024, daily consumption in eight coastal provinces was 2.4 million tons, significantly higher than the 1.88 million tons per day recorded in the same period of 2023, marking a 22% decrease from peak levels [3]. - The short-term coal price is expected to rise due to high daily consumption, with prices likely to remain stable in the near term. The report indicates that coal prices may touch a bottom of 800 yuan per ton [3]. Coal Types and Market Dynamics - For thermal coal, the report notes that high daily consumption is supporting a short-term price rebound, with expectations of stability in the near future. The report highlights that coal prices have slightly increased due to sustained high consumption levels [3][19]. - Coking coal prices have shown signs of recovery, with improved steel output and profitability observed in the market. The report anticipates a positive adjustment in market expectations for steel as the "golden September and silver October" period approaches [3]. Inventory and Pricing Data - As of September 7, 2024, inventory levels at Qinhuangdao port were 4.82 million tons, reflecting a 4.8% increase. Meanwhile, southern port inventories decreased by 1.3% [19]. - The report provides detailed pricing data, indicating that the price of Q5500 thermal coal at various ports has seen slight increases, with prices at Huanghua port reaching 852 yuan per ton, up 0.2% from the previous week [6][10]. Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies with stable profitability, including China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry. It also suggests considering companies benefiting from coal-electricity integration and those recovering from performance lows [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shougang Resources [3][10]. Core Views - The company's total revenue for the first half of 2024 was HKD 2.53 billion, a decrease of 27.6% year-on-year, while the profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 840 million, down 32%, aligning with market expectations [3]. - The production volume is expected to recover in the second half of the year, with an annual forecast of 4.8 to 5 million tons, following a decline due to temporary shutdowns [3]. - The average selling price of premium coking coal in the first half was HKD 1,938 per ton, a slight decrease of 2% year-on-year, while the average market benchmark price increased by 3% [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at HKD 5.33 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.58% [5]. - Net profit estimates for 2024 and 2025 have been revised down to HKD 1.695 billion and HKD 1.844 billion, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 6.55% and 5.36% [3][5]. - The company’s average cost per ton in the first half was HKD 450, up from HKD 401 in the previous year, primarily due to reduced production and increased resource taxes [3]. Production Insights - The company’s coal production in the first half was 2.25 million tons, a 15% decline year-on-year, with premium coking coal production down 31% to approximately 1.29 million tons [3]. - The company has a total approved production capacity of 5.25 million tons, with the Xingu mine accounting for 1.75 million tons, and is expected to achieve an annual production of 4.8 to 5 million tons [3]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a significant change in the sales structure, with low-sulfur premium coking coal sales dropping by 91%, now accounting for only 3% of total sales [3]. - The company’s coal washing rate fell below 60%, compared to over 70% in the first half of 2023, attributed to the temporary shutdown of the Xingu mine [3].