国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------| | [Table_Industry] | | 食品饮料 | | | 2024.07.14 | | 增持 | | | | 首选饮料与啤酒,景气韧性与利润弹性 | 上次评级: 增持 | | | | ——食品饮料行业周度更新 | | | | [table_Authors] 訾猛(分析师) | 姚世佳(分析师) | | | | 021-38676442 | 021-38676912 | | | | zime ...

股 票 研 究 煤价导致 Q2 业绩下行,龙头 Q3 有望恢复增长 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------|--------------------|-----------------------------| | | | ——煤炭行业周报 | | [table_Authors] | 黄涛(分析师) | 邓铖琦(分析师) | | | 021-38674879 | 010-83939825 | | | huangtao@gtjas.com | dengchengqi024452@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880515090001 | S0880523050003 | 本报告导读: 动力煤:本周开启涨价,但高点不宜乐观;炼焦煤:Q3 长协价格持平,我们依然乐 观。判断 Q3 开始部分龙头将开始恢复单季度业绩增长。 投资要点: [Table_ 投资建议:Summary] 我们认为煤炭板块估值的重塑正在途中,背后反应的不仅是煤 炭行业深刻供需结构变化,逐步"公用事业化",而且也反映了在资产荒背 景下,无风险收益率下行趋势下的高股息资产更加受到市场青睐的投资策 ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 行 业 更 新 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------|----------------------|-----------|-------| | [Table_Industry] | | | 保险 | | 2024.07.14 | [Table_Invest] 评级: | | 增持 | | 预计利润环比改善,产寿业绩均好于预期 | | 上次评级: | 增持 | ——上市险企 2024 年中报业绩前瞻 [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------|--------------------|----------------------|-------------------------| | [table_Authors] | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 谢雨晟(分析师) | 李嘉木(分析师 ...

股 票 研 究 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|------------------------|----------------------------|---------------------------------|-----------|-------| | | | | | | 汽车 | | 2024.07.14 | | | [Table_Invest] 评级: | | 增持 | | | | | | 上次评级: | 增持 | | | ——汽车行业周报( | 2024.7.8-7.12) | [Table_subIndustry]细分行业评级 | | | | [table_Authors 吴晓飞](分析师) | 管正月(分析师) | 周逸洲(研究助理) | | | | | 0755-23976003 | 021-38032026 | 010-83939811 | | | | | wuxiaofei@gtjas.com | guanzhengyue@gtjas.com | zhouyizhou ...

股 票 研 究 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-------------------------|---------------------------------|---------------------------------|-----------|----------| | [Table_Industry] | | | | | 基础化工 | | | | | [Table_Invest] 评级: | | 增持 | | | | | | 上次评级: | 增持 | | | | | [Table_subIndustry]细分行业评级 | | | | | | ——基础化工行业周报 | | | | | 钟浩(分析师) | 沈唯(分析师) | 陈传双(研究助理) | | | | | 021-38038445 | 0755-23976795 | 021-38676675 | | | | | zhonghao027638@gtjas.com | shenwei024936@gtjas.com | chenchuansh ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 [Table_Industry] 投资银行业与经纪业 2024.07.14 [Table_Invest] 评级: 增持 上次评级: 增持 [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 [Table_Report] 相关报告 投资银行业与经纪业《居民持续增配固收, 合规展业更重要》 2024.07.10 投资银行业与经纪业《利率稳定利好寿险》 2024.07.07 投资银行业与经纪业《寿险负债成本下行, 金融消保将更受重视》 2024.06.30 投资银行业与经纪业《AIGC 助力券商财富业 务管理转型》 2024.06.24 投资银行业与经纪业《陆家嘴论坛召开,非 银发展方向更清晰》 2024.06.23 投资要点: [Table预计_Summary] 2024 年上半年上市券商业绩整体下滑,归母净利润同比降低 25.75%。1)我们预计 43 家上市券商 2024 年上半年调整后营业收入 (营业收入-其他业务成本)同比下滑 22.45%至 1779.95 亿元,归母 净利润 ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 行 业 周 报 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|------------------------|----------------------------|---------------------------------|-----------|-------| | [Table_Industry] | | | | | 汽车 | | 2024.07.14 | | | [Table_Invest] 评级: | | 增持 | | | | | | 上次评级: | 增持 | | | ——汽车行业周报( | 2024.7.8-7.12) | [Table_subIndustry]细分行业评级 | | | | [table_Authors 吴晓飞](分析师) | 管正月(分析师) | 周逸洲(研究助理) | | | | | 0755-23976003 | 021-38 ...

[Table_Industry] 社会服务业 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|-----------------------------------|---------------------------------|-----------|-------| | 2024.07.14 | | [Table_Invest] 评级: | | 增持 | | | 暑期旅游消费供需两旺,三中全会在即 | | 上次评级: | 增持 | | | ——商社行业周报(2024.07.08-07.14) | [Table_subIndustry]细分行业评级 | | | | [table_Authors 刘越男](分析师) | 宋小寒(研究助理) | | | | | 021-38677706 | 010-83939087 | | | | | liuyuenan@gtjas.com | songxiaohan026736@gtjas.com | [Table_Report] 相关报告 | | | | 登记编号 S0880516030 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, with a target price of 35.66 CNY, maintaining the previous forecast of the same price [6][7]. Core Views - The company's performance forecast for the first half of 2024 shows a significant increase in net profit, driven by overseas loss reduction and an increase in Central Reservation System (CRS) fees. The structural adjustments within the company are expected to enhance operational efficiency [6][7]. - The report anticipates a net profit of 1.506 billion CNY for 2024, reflecting a 50.3% increase compared to the previous year. The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.41 CNY for 2024 [6][7]. Financial Summary - **Market Data**: The company's total market capitalization is 24,590 million CNY, with a 52-week price range of 21.75 to 49.76 CNY [3]. - **Balance Sheet**: Shareholder equity stands at 16,888 million CNY, with a net asset value per share of 15.78 CNY and a current price-to-book ratio of 1.5 [4]. - **Financial Performance**: The company reported revenues of 11,310 million CNY in 2022, with projections of 14,649 million CNY for 2023 and 15,477 million CNY for 2024, indicating a growth rate of 29.5% year-on-year for 2023 [6][10]. - **Profitability Metrics**: The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1,506 million CNY in 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) projected at 8.7% [6][10]. Performance Trends - The report notes a decline in stock performance over the past year, with a 49% drop in absolute terms and a 42% drop relative to the index [5]. - The company has experienced a significant recovery in its operational metrics, particularly in the second quarter of 2024, exceeding market expectations [7]. Structural Adjustments - The company is nearing the completion of its structural adjustments, which are expected to improve product offerings, team stability, and operational efficiency [7]. - The management team has stabilized, and the organization has adopted a more streamlined structure to enhance employee engagement and operational effectiveness [7]. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes that despite macroeconomic fluctuations, the company remains a leader in the industry, and the anticipated improvements in management and operations are expected to yield positive results in the latter half of 2024 [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company has released a performance forecast for H1 2024, indicating a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1 to 1.2 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 35.24% to 62.29%. The Q2 net profit is expected to be between 600 million to 800 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 12.4% to 49.7% [10] - The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the market, with domestic sales continuing to reduce costs and expand market share, while international sales are progressing with localized operations [3][10] - The target price is set at 507.63 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 25x for 2024 [4] Financial Summary - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 to be 20.31, 24.03, and 28.23 yuan, with growth rates of +30%, +18%, and +17% respectively [10] - The total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 11.423 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 32.0% [10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is estimated at 2.672 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 30.3% [10] - The company’s net asset return rate (ROE) is expected to reach 20.3% in 2024, increasing to 21.2% by 2026 [10][12] Market Position - The company’s market share in domestic online sales during the 618 promotion is expected to rise from 28% in 2023 to 30% in 2024, demonstrating strong product competitiveness and cost reduction capabilities [10] - The company has entered new offline locations in North America, including Target and BestBuy, which will support high growth in that region [10]