Group 1: AI and Technology Developments - NVIDIA's RTX 5090 GPU features 92 billion transistors, 3352 AI TOPS, and 380 RT TFLOPS, with a price drop from $1599 to $549 compared to the previous generation[1] - The Cosmos platform focuses on understanding physical world dynamics, aiding in the development of humanoid robots and autonomous driving technologies[2] - The introduction of Agentic AI could represent a multi-trillion dollar commercial opportunity, with an estimated 1 billion knowledge workers globally[3] Group 2: Market Trends and Applications - Short-term commercialization of AI agents will primarily target B2B sectors such as programming, advertising, and customer service, while long-term prospects include consumer devices like AI smartphones and glasses[4] - The CES 2025 showcased various AI companion products, indicating a growing market for emotionally engaging AI devices[16] - AI glasses are emerging as viable hardware, integrating image recognition and voice interaction capabilities, enhancing user experience[17] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential delays in technology development, regulatory challenges, and slower-than-expected commercialization progress[5][10][15]

- The report introduces three fundamental asset allocation models: Black-Litterman, Risk Parity, and Macro Factor models, which are used to develop large asset allocation strategies across four major asset classes: domestic stocks, bonds, commodities, and gold[5] - The Black-Litterman (BL) model is constructed by combining the equilibrium market returns with the investor's views to generate a new set of expected returns. The formula used is: $ E[R] = \lambda \Sigma w + (1 - \lambda) Q $ where $ \lambda $ is the confidence level, $ \Sigma $ is the covariance matrix, $ w $ is the market equilibrium weights, and $ Q $ is the investor's views[5] - The Risk Parity model aims to allocate risk equally among all assets in the portfolio. The process involves calculating the risk contribution of each asset and adjusting the weights to equalize these contributions. The formula used is: $ RC_i = w_i \cdot \sigma_i \cdot \rho_{i, p} $ where $ RC_i $ is the risk contribution of asset $ i $, $ w_i $ is the weight of asset $ i $, $ \sigma_i $ is the volatility of asset $ i $, and $ \rho_{i, p} $ is the correlation between asset $ i $ and the portfolio[5] - The Macro Factor model incorporates macroeconomic indicators such as growth, inflation, interest rates, credit, exchange rates, and liquidity to adjust asset allocation. The macro scores are assigned based on the current economic conditions, and the asset weights are adjusted accordingly[7] - The evaluation of the models indicates that the BL model has an out-of-sample return of 9.97% for 2024, with a maximum drawdown of 1.35% and an annualized volatility of 2.54%[6] - The Risk Parity model shows an out-of-sample return of 7.93% for 2024, with a maximum drawdown of 0.47% and an annualized volatility of 1.36%[6] - The Macro Factor model demonstrates an out-of-sample return of 6.82% for 2024, with a maximum drawdown of 0.63% and an annualized volatility of 1.52%[6] - The report highlights that the domestic asset BL strategy achieved a return of 1.4% in December 2024, while the Risk Parity strategy and the Macro Factor strategy achieved returns of 1.15% and 1.08%, respectively, in the same period[6]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the smart glasses industry, particularly with the upcoming releases from various manufacturers, indicating a potential investment opportunity in the sector [2][3]. Core Insights - The launch of the Thunderbird V3 AI glasses marks a significant advancement in the AR optical field, featuring a custom 12MP camera, high-quality audio, and advanced AI capabilities, which could set a new standard in the market [1][2]. - The collaboration between Thunderbird Innovation and Doctor Glasses for customized lens services enhances the product offering, catering to diverse consumer needs [1]. - The report highlights the expected release of multiple smart glasses from various manufacturers in 2025, suggesting a growing competitive landscape and innovation within the industry [2][3]. Summary by Sections - **Product Launch**: Thunderbird Innovation released the V3 AI glasses, weighing 39 grams, equipped with a Snapdragon AR1 platform, a custom 12MP camera, and a high-quality audio system [1]. - **Technological Advancements**: The report mentions the development of proprietary optical engines and collaborations with companies like Applied Materials for advanced light waveguide technology [2]. - **Market Trends**: The report anticipates a surge in smart glasses releases in 2025, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the domestic smart glasses supply chain [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) industry, particularly in the context of the recent procurement rounds, suggesting potential investment opportunities in leading prescription drug companies [1][3]. Core Insights - The third round of national TCM procurement has shown a higher-than-expected price reduction, with the highest drop reaching 97.5% and an average reduction of approximately 68%, indicating a significant shift in pricing dynamics within the industry [1]. - The ongoing refinement of procurement rules tailored to the characteristics of TCM is expected to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of the procurement process, addressing previous challenges such as product variety and pricing discrepancies [2]. - The TCM procurement process is still in its early stages, with expectations for continued quality improvement and expansion in the number of products included in the procurement list, which currently stands at less than 150 out of 1336 TCMs in the medical insurance catalog [3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Procurement Results - The third batch of TCM procurement involved 54 varieties of 175 drugs, with a total market value exceeding 300 billion yuan, and a selection rate of 75% among 297 participating companies [1]. - The average price reduction in this round is significantly higher than previous rounds, which had average reductions of 42.3% and 49.4% respectively [1]. Section 2: Rule Development - The report highlights the ongoing efforts to develop procurement rules that are more suited to TCM, including the introduction of technical scoring based on various criteria such as medical institution recognition and innovation capability [2]. - Different provinces are experimenting with diverse approaches to procurement, which may lead to a more standardized and effective system in the future [2]. Section 3: Market Impact - Leading prescription drug companies are expected to benefit from the procurement process due to their brand strength, scale, and cost control capabilities, while OTC brands may experience relatively less impact [3]. - The procurement process is anticipated to reduce marketing costs and eliminate inefficiencies in the drug distribution chain, thereby enhancing industry concentration and promoting innovation in TCM [3].

手机是尚待开采的数据金矿，拥有 AI 最需要的数据入口与硬件入口。在目前所有形态的硬件中，手机拥有用户绝大部分的使用数据，只有手机拥有跨 APP 权限， 因此只有手机才有可能发展成契合用户需求的"贾维斯"式智能帮手。在未来五年内，以目前台积电的制程发展速度，其他可穿戴形态的硬件没有脱离于手机发展的 算力基础与生态基础，眼镜、耳机、PIN等都仍然是手机的附属产品。手机的数据权限、以及个人硬件中心的地位，让其在 AI 时代成为一座尚待开采的数据金矿。 手机企与AI 企业均意识到其价值。手机厂商掌控数据权限，AI 企业的大模型技术独占鳌头，双方博弈在所难免，直至达成新的平衡态势或决出胜负高下。 手机企业的 AI 目前还没有打动消费者。自 2023 年下半年起，手机企业的 AI 定义经历了三个阶段：1）APP式AI：AI 修图、AI 问答等；2）意图理解：借助手机 积累的海量用户数据深度解析用户所处情境与潜藏意图；3）语音控制 APP 执行：用户能够凭借语音指令便捷实现诸如点外卖、叫车等操作。部分手机品牌在 2024 年底仍然停留在第一阶段的认知，这类企业大概率会率先摒弃自主研发 AI 的路径，转而探寻外部合作契机。 ...

摘要： 投资建议。WM大幅跑赢同期标普指数，2000年以来上涨23倍，复盘公司成长和发展历程，有助于思考我国固 废公司的发展战略。我们认为，1）固废行业卡位和盈利最核心的资产在于末端处置产能。2）我国固废行业进入 成熟期。短中期看，未来龙头公司的业绩增长主要驱动力将来自于并购整合，产业链纵横一体化整合是明确方 向。稳健增长的分红和回购将驱动估值提升。3）更长远看，商业模式完善将打开进一步价值重估的空间，如果使 用者付费及市场化定价可以全面推进，则未来我国也有望出现WM类似的大市值公司。 WM：北美最大的废物管理公司，并购扩张打造北美最大垃圾填埋场网络，市场化定价保障内生增长和盈利能 力。1）WM是北美最大的废物管理公司，收入以垃圾收转运及填埋为主，2023年在美国填埋市场占据30%份 额。公司盈利能力强，毛利率维持在35-40%，ROE 30%左右。2）自1968年成立以来，公司历经多次并购整 合，打造北美最大垃圾填埋场网络，强化全产业链一体化运营能力，构筑核心竞争优势，使得公司拥有较强定价 能力，持续调价保障内生增长和盈利水平，熨平经济周期带来的波动。 连续21年分红增长+持续回购，北美固废龙头上涨23倍。 ...

Investment Rating - The report highlights a positive outlook on the AI application industry, indicating a strong potential for growth and investment opportunities [2]. Core Insights - Generative AI is rapidly transforming various sectors, including healthcare, finance, and education, by enabling precise diagnostics, optimizing risk control, and personalizing learning paths [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of collaboration and communication among leading enterprises and institutional investors to explore new opportunities in the AI application industry [2]. Summary by Sections - **Industry Overview**: The generative AI sector is emerging as a key player in reshaping industrial landscapes at an unprecedented pace [2]. - **Future Trends**: AI is expected to revolutionize medical research, enhance financial strategies, and deeply integrate into educational systems [2]. - **Event Details**: The report outlines an upcoming seminar focused on AI applications, featuring discussions from industry experts and opportunities for networking among stakeholders [3].

中国商务部将28家美国实体纳入清单，管制两用物项对美出口。2025年1月2日，商务部公告称，将通用动力公 司等28家美国实体列入出口管制管控名单，禁止向其出口两用物项；将洛克希德·马丁导弹与火控公司等10家美国 企业加入不可靠实体清单，禁止这些企业与中国进行进出口交易；阻止它们在中国境内新增投资；禁止其高级管理 人员入境中国；并且不批准或取消这些高管在中国的工作许可及居留资格。 中美在科技、军工等领域的贸易摩擦持续加剧。美国多次对中国企业实施类似的单边制裁，限制中国获取关键技术 的能力，2024年12月2日，美国BIS出台对华新一轮芯片出口禁令，涉及140家中国实体，这是自2022年10月 以来的第三次大规模限制。2024年12月3日，中国商务部发布关于加强相关两用物项对美出口管制公告，宣布严 控对美出口镓、锗、锑、超硬材料、石墨等相关两用物项，2025年1月，中国商务部发布出口管制清单和不可靠 实体清单，更为明确列举了具体的美国实体。中国作为美国镓和锗等关键矿物的主要来源国，限制出口将对美国相 关行业产生影响。 半导体国产化势在必行，先进制程重要性提升。美国2024年芯片出口禁令对我国先进制程领域进行了精准 ...

每周一景：新疆沙漠湖泊与胡杨并存的葫芦岛 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【宏观】央行更加重视稳汇率 四季度货币政策例会关于稳汇率的表述明显增多。一是在定调国内外经济形势上，指出"外部环境变化带来的不利影响 加深"，"主要经济体经济表现有所分化"加重了非美货币的贬值压力；二是在汇率预期管理上，表述从"增强汇率弹 性"改为"增强外汇市场韧性"，强调"稳定市场预期"，当前即期汇率偏离中间价幅度较多，离岸汇率甚至一度超过中间 价+2%的波幅，表明汇率市场存在一定的单边一致性预期；三是新增"坚决对扰乱市场秩序行为进行处置"的表述，凸 显政策稳汇率决心。 外汇管理政策有望出台。1月3日至4日召开的2025年全国外汇管理工作会议强调要"实施更加积极有为的外汇管理政 策"。当前汇率市场以数量型调控工具为主，包括远期售汇业务的外汇风险准备金政策、外汇存款准备金政策、跨境融 资宏观审慎调节参数政策，分别从提升做空汇率成本、增加美元供给、降低企业基于正常经营需求的换汇行为对汇率 的扰动等渠道增强人民币韧性。目前，这些政策的调控力度皆处于历史最强。 最近两次的政策调整皆发生在汇率单边行情并一度越过7.3，如2022年9月调升远期售汇业 ...

首批SFISF资金基本投放完毕，参与机构名单将扩容至40家。1）据证监会公告，SFISF工具实施以来，相关机构积极开展互换便利操作，根据市场 情况稳步融资、投资，截至目前首批操作（合计500亿）已全部落地，实际投放超过90%，发挥了互换便利工具维护资本市场稳定运行的积极作用； 2）证监会商中国人民银行在首批20家参与机构基础上，根据分类评价、合规风控等条件增选了20家参与机构，形成40家备选机构池。未来每批次 操作时，根据意向参与规模筛选出20家左右的机构参与人民银行招标操作；3）资金投向方面，通过这项工具获取的资金只能投向资本市场，用于股 票、股票ETF的投资和做市。此外，据财联社报道，操作细则要求买入的股票可以对冲，但对冲规模不能超过融资金额的10%。 预计资本市场流动性改善利好金融科技及券商股基本面改善。1）SFISF为券商、公募机构资金入市提供流动性支持。据细则，券商通过互换便利买 入股票在风控指标计量、资金成本等方面均有一定优势，有助于提升券商使用互换便利的意愿。2）市场交投活跃度有望进一步提升，利好券商、金 融科技股基本面改善。券商经纪、两融、权益自营投资等业务有望受益。 事件：12月31日，证监 ...