Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Hengshuai Co., Ltd. (300969) [1] Core Insights - Hengshuai Co., Ltd. is a leading player in the automotive micro-motor sector, continuously expanding its product categories and application scenarios, particularly in the context of increasing consumer demand for automotive intelligence and comfort [3] - The company has established a strong market position through its collaboration with major clients and is actively developing new products to meet the evolving needs of the automotive industry [3] - The forecasted net profit for the years 2024 to 2026 is expected to be 229 million, 279 million, and 343 million CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.86, 3.49, and 4.29 CNY [3] Summary by Sections 1. Automotive Micro-Motor Leader - Hengshuai Co., Ltd. has been focused on automotive micro-motor technology for over 20 years, with traditional products including trunk and side door motors, fan motors, and motorcycle ABS motors [9] - The company is expanding its product offerings to include new applications such as charging door actuators and invisible door handle drive mechanisms, which are gaining traction in the market [9][10] - The revenue from trunk and side door motors has increased significantly, from 16 million CNY in 2018 to 210 million CNY in 2023, with the revenue share rising from 5% to 23% [3][10] 2. Micro-Motor: Aligning with Smart and Configurable Upgrades - The automotive micro-motor market is experiencing a rise in usage, with the average number of micro-motors per vehicle increasing due to enhanced consumer expectations for comfort and intelligence [30] - The company is developing a "1+N" product layout to cater to the growing demand for smart automotive features, including seat motors and thermal management-related motors [30][31] - The global automotive micro-motor market is projected to grow from 16.2 billion USD in 2023 to 19.9 billion USD by 2030, with a CAGR of 3% [38] 3. Cleaning Systems: Accelerating L3+ Autonomous Driving - Hengshuai Co., Ltd. is recognized as a hidden champion in the cleaning pump sector, supplying products to major global automotive manufacturers [3] - The company is expanding its cleaning system applications to include new products for L3+ autonomous driving, which is expected to increase the value per vehicle significantly [3][10] - The establishment of factories in Thailand and the USA is aimed at enhancing overseas market penetration and optimizing product structure [3][10] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates that the company will achieve net profits of 229 million CNY, 279 million CNY, and 343 million CNY from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 33X, 27X, and 22X based on the closing price as of January 23, 2025 [3][12]

Group 1: Smartphone Industry Insights - Global smartphone shipments in Q4 2024 increased by 2.4% year-on-year, reaching 331.7 million units, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of growth. The total shipments for 2024 reached 1.24 billion units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.4% [7] - Domestic smartphone shipments in China for Q4 2024 were approximately 76.43 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%. The total shipments for the year were about 286 million units, up 5.6% year-on-year, indicating a rebound after two years of decline [8] - The report highlights four investment themes in the consumer electronics sector: AIOT, AI-driven technologies, equipment materials, and the consumer electronics cycle [6][11] Group 2: Photovoltaic and Wind Power Industry Insights - The photovoltaic equipment sector saw a 5.9% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.76 percentage points. The wind power equipment sector rose by 3.42%, also surpassing the CSI 300 index [12] - The production of silicon wafers is expected to rise, with January production anticipated to remain around 46GW. The price of silicon wafers has increased due to stable upstream prices and high operating rates among integrated companies [13] - The report indicates that the total installed capacity for onshore wind power in 2024 is estimated at 165.88GW, while offshore wind power is projected at 12.05GW. The overall outlook for wind power installation in 2025 remains strong, with expectations of 105-115GW of new installations [16][18] Group 3: Market Performance and Economic Policies - The A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.89% to close at 3213 points. The Shenzhen Component and ChiNext also saw declines, indicating a general market pullback [23][24] - Recent economic policies aim to enhance long-term capital market participation, including increasing the investment ratio of commercial insurance funds in A-shares and optimizing the investment management mechanisms of social security funds [20][21]

Group 1: Smartphone Industry - Global smartphone shipments in Q4 2024 increased by 2.4% year-on-year, reaching 331.7 million units, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of growth. The total shipments for 2024 reached 1.24 billion units, a 6.4% increase year-on-year, indicating a resilient recovery after two challenging years [7][6][8] - Domestic smartphone shipments in China for Q4 2024 were approximately 76.43 million units, up 3.9% year-on-year, with a total of 286 million units for the year, reflecting a 5.6% increase year-on-year. The market is expected to continue its growth trend in 2025, supported by government consumption subsidy policies [8][6][7] - Major players in the smartphone market include Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi, Vivo, and Huawei, with domestic manufacturers capturing 56% of the global market share in Q4 2024. The demand for foldable phones has decreased, leading manufacturers to shift focus towards AI functionalities [7][8] Group 2: New Energy Industry - The photovoltaic sector saw a 5.9% increase in stock prices, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.76 percentage points. The wind power equipment sector also rose by 3.42% [12][13] - Silicon wafer production is expected to rise, with upstream prices stabilizing. The production of silicon wafers is projected to maintain around 46 GW in January, with integrated companies sustaining high operating rates due to attractive profit levels [13][12] - The wind power sector is experiencing significant growth, with an estimated 165.88 GW of onshore wind power and 12.05 GW of offshore wind power tendered in 2024. The total installed capacity for wind power is expected to reach 105-115 GW in 2025, indicating a strong demand for wind power equipment [16][18] Group 3: Market Performance - The electronic industry outperformed the broader market, with the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's electronic index rising by 4.08%, compared to a 2.14% increase in the CSI 300 index. The overall performance of the electronic sector ranked 12th among primary industries [10][11] - The semiconductor sector saw a 4.08% increase, while electronic components and optical electronics also experienced gains of 2.80% and 4.57%, respectively [10][11] - The A-share market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index both recorded gains [25][26]

Group 1: Key Insights on Photovoltaic and Wind Power Sectors - The production of photovoltaic silicon wafers is expected to increase, with the integrated companies maintaining high operating rates due to attractive profit levels [6][7]. - The photovoltaic equipment sector saw a 5.9% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.76 percentage points during the week of January 13-17, 2025 [6]. - The wind power sector is experiencing growth in bidding for land-based wind power projects, with a total of approximately 165.88 GW of land-based wind power and 12.05 GW of offshore wind power expected in 2024 [9][11]. Group 2: Market Performance and Economic Indicators - The overall market performance indicates a recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3244 points, reflecting a slight increase of 0.08% [26][31]. - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q4 2024 was reported at 7.43%, indicating a significant recovery in economic activity [16]. - The trade surplus for 2024 reached a record high of $992.155 billion, driven by robust export growth [17]. Group 3: Recommendations for Specific Companies - Focus on Fulete, a leading photovoltaic glass manufacturer, which benefits from scale advantages and improved cash flow, positioning it well for industry consolidation [8]. - Attention is drawn to Dajin Heavy Industry, a leader in marine engineering equipment, which is expanding its global market share through new investments [12]. - Orient Cable, a leading company in submarine cables, is expected to strengthen its market position with new project investments [12].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it highlights positive trends and suggests关注 (focus) on specific companies within the battery and energy storage sectors [5][14][19]. Core Insights - The battery sector is experiencing significant growth, with a projected 2025 sales volume of 15 million new energy vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of over 20% [4][12]. - The energy storage market is also expanding, with new installations expected to reach 43.7 GW/109.8 GWh in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 103%/136% [6][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support in sustaining market growth and stability in pricing across various segments of the battery supply chain [4][6][16]. Summary by Sections Battery Sector - The domestic new energy vehicle sales reached 1.2866 million units in December 2024, a 35.5% year-on-year increase, with over 680,000 vehicles replaced under the old-for-new policy [4][12]. - Supply-side adjustments are stabilizing prices, with lithium carbonate prices fluctuating and remaining under pressure due to supply-demand dynamics [13][25]. - Key companies to watch include 宁德时代 (CATL), which is expected to ship 480 GWh in 2024 with a profit of approximately 50.5 billion yuan [5][14]. Energy Storage Sector - The energy storage bidding market saw a total scale of 2.30 GW/15.47 GWh for new projects, with a decline in average bidding prices [6][15]. - By the end of 2024, the cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage in China is projected to exceed 78.3 GW/184.2 GWh, surpassing pumped storage for the first time [6][16]. - The report highlights 上能电气 (Sungrow) for its comprehensive energy storage business model and market leadership in inverter shipments [19][7]. Market Performance - The battery sector index rose by 2.97% in the week of January 13-19, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.83 percentage points [21][22]. - Major inflows were observed in stocks like 科达利 (Keda Li) and 阳光电源 (Sungrow Power), while significant outflows were noted for 宁德时代 (CATL) and 新宙邦 (New Zobon) [21][23].

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年01月20日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250120 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 王珏人 S0630523100001 wjr@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 财经要闻 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [Table_Report] ➢ 1. Q4GDP超预期，第三产业支撑明显——国内观察：2024年12月经济数据及全年GDP数 据 ➢ 2.扩内需仍待政策加力——宏观双周报（20250106-20250117） ➢ 1.国家主席习近平同美国当选总统特朗普通电话。 ➢ 2.国常会：研究促进就业有关政策措施。 ➢ 3.央行、证监会联合召开股票回购增持再贷款座谈会 ➢ 4.IMF上调2025年全球经济增长预测 | 1. 重点推荐 | | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.1. Q4GDP | 年 月经济数据及 超预期，第三产业支撑明显——国内观察：2024 12 | | | 全年 GDP ...

Economic Performance - Q4 2024 GDP growth reached 5.4%, exceeding the consensus forecast of 5.07%[19] - Nominal GDP growth for Q4 surged to 7.43%, a significant improvement from the previous 4.04%[19] - The service sector showed strong support in Q4, with a growth rate of 5.8% and a notable rebound in the GDP deflator index[19] Financial Data and Policy - Financial data showed marginal improvement, with new RMB loans in December at CNY 990 billion, down by CNY 180 billion year-on-year[10] - Social financing (社融) increased by CNY 2.85 trillion in December, up by CNY 918.1 billion year-on-year[10] - The central bank emphasized maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate, implementing measures such as issuing CNY 60 billion in central bank bills offshore[10] Trade and International Relations - In December 2024, exports grew by 10.7% year-on-year, contributing to a record trade surplus of USD 992.155 billion for the year[22] - The potential for a phase of easing in China-U.S. relations was noted, with signals from both sides indicating possible diplomatic improvements[22] - The establishment of a "Foreign Tax Bureau" by the incoming U.S. administration may accelerate the implementation of tariffs on imports[22] Market Trends - In the past two weeks, small-cap stocks outperformed larger ones, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.54% and the STAR 50 Index by 2.56%[27] - The 10-year government bond yield rebounded, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards smaller market capitalization stocks[27] Risks - Geopolitical risks and the potential for delayed policy implementation could hinder economic recovery and investment growth[32] - Uncertainties surrounding U.S. inflation and interest rate policies may impact market dynamics and exchange rate stability[11]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年1月20日 标配 行 业 周 报 [Table_Authors] 证券分析师 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 联系人 董经纬 djwei@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 行 业 研 究 [table_invest] ➢ 电子板块观点：全球以及国内2024Q4及2024全年智能手机出货量均实现同比增长，但 在宏观经济挑战、需求低迷的背景下，整体增长幅度较小，消费电子弱复苏的节奏或将 在2025年持续；当前电子行业需求处于温和复苏阶段，建议关注AIOT、AI驱动、设备材 料、消费电子周期筑底板块四大投资主线。 ➢ IDC发布2024Q4及2024全年全球以及国内智能手机市场出货报告，全球以及国内 2024Q4及2024全年智能手机出货量均实现同比增长，但在宏观经济挑战、需求低迷的 背景下，整体增长幅度较小，弱复苏的节奏或将持续至2025年。（1）全球智能手机出 货量2024Q4同比 ...

[table_stockTrend] -43% -28% -13% 2% 17% 32% 47% 美容护理 沪深300 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年01月20日 标配 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] [相关研究 table_product] 1.2024年化妆品品牌榜公布——美 容护理行业周报 (2025/1/6- 2025/1/10) [Table_NewTitle] 2024年社零同比增长3.5% 任晓帆 S0630522070001 rxf@longone.com.cn ——美容护理行业周报(2025/1/13-2025/1/17) [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 市场表现：（1）美容护理板块：本周沪深300指数上涨2.14%，申万美容护理指数上涨 4.34%，行业跑赢大盘2.2pcts，涨幅在全部申万一级行业中排第十一位。（2）个股方 面：本周板块除ST美谷（-5.96%）下跌外，其余个股均保持上涨，其中涨幅前五的个股 分别为依依股份（22.04%）、名臣健康（14.86%）、洁雅股份（11.43%）、百亚股份 （10.55%）、倍加洁（9.67%）。 ➢ 重 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年01月20日 超配 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 陶圣禹 S0630523100002 tsy@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -23% -6% 11% 28% 44% 61% 78% 24-01 24-04 24-07 24-10 申万行业指数:非银金融(0749) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.规范中介机构行为，提升展业积极 性——非银金融行业简评 2.预定利率动态调整机制落地，关注 业绩预告披露对板块估值的提振效 应 — — 非 银 金 融 行 业 周 报 （20250106-20250112） 3.SFISF扩容落地，把握板块回调后 的配置机遇——非银金融行业周报 （20241230-20250105） [Table_NewTitle 规范 ] IPO中介机构行为，保险监管评级发 布助力高质量发展 行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 行 业 周 报 非 银 金 融 [table_invest] ...